This report explores the ice cream and frozen novelties market in complete detail. Our industry expert analyzes the market and the US consumer in detail. The report features information on US ice cream market size, five year forecast, consumer insights and opportunities for future growth in a competitive industry.
Key Issues Covered in this Report
- Trended frozen treat purchases by purchase location, type, and product
- Frequency of new frozen treat trial and motivators to new product trial
- Interest in ice cream and frozen novelty product concepts
- Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes and behaviors
- Associations with ice cream and frozen novelties compared to other sweet treats
- Brand innovation, strategies, and opportunities
US Ice Cream Market Overview
A resurgence of self care and comforting eating in 2020 boosted ice cream and frozen novelties, followed by a period of steady inflation that made at home frozen treating that much more appealing (and budget friendly). Now, as inflation is cooling, consumers and younger generations especially, are getting back to away from home frozen treating, raising the bar for at home expectations and perhaps even paving the way for a new wave of premium frozen treats.
- US ice cream market size: Mintel estimates a 5.4% increase in retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties in 2023.
Find a full breakdown of current US ice cream market dynamics in this report, alongside expert analysis.
Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Market and Consumer Trends
A sweet dose of variety
Consumers find comfort in traditional frozen treat flavors and have some sense of routine with product choices, but unique options bring the fun, too. In fact, 3 in 4 ice cream consumers agree that trying new flavors of frozen treats is a fun experience.
A new age of premium
As away from home frozen treating is on the rise, the retail frozen treat market may be entering a new age of premiumized at home experiences. While premium ingredients are a direct (and widely appealing approach), things like customization inspiration, formats, and even positioning can all play a role in elevating, too.
Continue to explore our expert’s breakdown of the latest market opportunities and competitive strategies inside the full report. Readers of this report may also be interested in Mintel’s global Future of Ice Cream.
Report Scope
This report examines retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties (often referred to as “frozen treats” for the sake of brevity). For the purposes of this report, the ice cream and frozen novelties market has been segmented as follows:
- Ice cream/frozen dairy dessert (including gelato)
- Frozen novelties (eg ice cream bars, sandwiches, cones, popsicles and the like, all with the advantage of hand-held convenience, single portions/portion control and snack friendliness)
- Frozen yogurt and dairy alternatives (including non-dairy items made from soy or other dairy alternatives)
- Sherbet, sorbet and ices.
Meet The Expert
US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Market Report is written by Kelsey Olsen, a leading Food & Drink Analyst. Kelsey joined Mintel in 2022 as a US Food and Drink Analyst. Kelsey uses her expertise to identify changing consumer behavior, industry trends, and innovation across packaged food and drink categories. Kelsey has a B.A. in Nutrition with a concentration in Food Studies and Business from the College of St. Benedict in Minnesota.
The comfort and joy found in frozen treating is solid, yet frozen treats can chip away and add occasions with formats, sizes, and new-ish flavors.
Kelsey Olsen
Food & Drink Analyst
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Executive Summary
- What you need to know
- Consumer trends: key takeaways
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- Opportunities
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Market Dynamics
- Market context
- Market drivers
- Freezers fill up as frozen food gains trust and quality perceptions
- Graph 1: attitudes toward the center store – quality and selection, by generation, 2023
- Still space for value in frozen treat selection
- Unilever’s spinoff of ice cream brands showcases lingering inflationary impacts on the market
- Younger consumers display fluid decision making with dairy and non-dairy milks
- Graph 2: milk types purchased in the past three months, by age, 2023
- Has dairy-free hit a social peak?
- Market size and forecast
- Market growth expected to chill out as inflation cools
- Retail sales and forecast of ice cream & frozen novelties
- Retail sales and forecast of ice cream & frozen novelties at inflation adjusted prices
- Market segmentation
- It’s all about satisfaction
- Graph 3: total retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2018-28
- Graph 4: total retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy and sherbet/sorbet/ices, by segment, at current prices, 2018-28
- Retail sales of ice cream & frozen novelties, by segment
- Market share/brand share
- Spin-offs, store brand growth, and emerging companies make up dynamic market landscape
- Sales of ice cream & frozen novelties, by company
- Ice cream segment leaders shake things up with innovation and anticipated changes
- Sales of ice cream, by company
- Ups and down for frozen novelties brands
- Sales of frozen novelties, by company
- Room for shifts opening up within the growing sherbet/sorbet/ices segment
- Sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by company
- Unilever has paved the way for frozen yogurt/non-dairy: a spinoff presents a turning point for other leading brands
- Sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, by company
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Consumer Insights
- Consumer fast facts
- Trended ice cream & frozen novelties purchase location
- Away from home frozen treats heat back up
- Graph 5: trended ice cream & frozen novelties purchase locations, 2023-24
- Away from home frozen treats heat back up
- Bring the ice cream parlor to the aisle
- Graph 6: frozen treat purchase locations, 2024
- Hone in on product assortments to bring relevant solutions across households, occasions
- Graph 7: frozen treat purchase location, 2024
- Trended types of ice cream & frozen novelties purchased
- Variety can scoop up new occasions, rather than chip away at current ones
- Graph 8: trended types of frozen treats purchased, 2023-24
- Open up minds to new category experiences with value at the forefront
- Graph 9: types of ice cream & frozen novelties purchased, by generation, 2024
- A tub of cream may be the quintessential kid friendly treat…
- Graph 10: frozen treat purchase, by parental status, 2024
- Graph 11: frozen treat purchase, by household size, 2024
- Trended ice cream & frozen novelties products purchased
- Consumers increasingly sprinkle in variety
- Graph 12: trended types of frozen treats purchased, 2023-24
- Diversify formats and types as variety eats into younger generation’s ice cream devotion
- Graph 13: types of frozen treats purchased, by generation, 2024
- Ice cream’s size adaptability can inspire across categories to meet range of household sizes
- Graph 14: types of frozen treats purchased, by household size, 2024
- Frequency of frozen treat trial
- Exploration doesn’t have to exclude existing options
- Expectations for exploration can be met with simple twists
- Graph 15: frequency of new frozen treat trial, by generation, 2024
- There’s a household size limit on trial
- Graph 16: frequency of new frozen treat trial, by household size, 2024
- Ice cream & frozen novelties new product trial motivators
- Differentiation must be a formulation
- Graph 17: motivators to purchase a new frozen treat, 2024
- Differentiation must be a formulation
- Grow value equation beyond just price points
- Graph 18: motivators to purchase a new frozen treat, by generation, 2024
- Minimize to maximize exploration opportunities
- Graph 19: motivators to purchase a new frozen treat, by household size, 2024
- Interest in ice cream concepts
- Bring premium touches to at home ice cream experiences
- Graph 20: interest in ice cream concepts, 2024
- More is more for younger ice cream eaters
- Graph 21: interest in ice cream concepts, by generation, 2024
- Package up value in the ice cream tub
- Graph 22: interest in ice cream concepts, by household size, 2024
- Interest in frozen novelty concepts
- Different pathways to pave with frozen novelty consumers of all ages
- Graph 23: interest in frozen novelty concepts. 2024
- Frozen novelty formats can support generational priorities
- Graph 24: interest in frozen novelty concepts, by generation, 2024
- Blur frozen novelties for parents
- Graph 25: interest in frozen novelty concepts, by parental status, 2024
- Ice cream & frozen novelties behaviors/attitudes
- Support special occasions on more than just special occasions
- Graph 26: ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes and behaviors, 2024
- Shake up (frozen) treat experience to expand occasions
- Graph 27: ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes and behaviors, by generation, 2024
- Versatility is there for the taking with frozen novelties
- Graph 28: ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes and behaviors, by household size, 2024
- Sweet treat associations
- Ice cream most likely sweet treat to make it on the grocery list
- Graph 29: associations with different sweet treats, 2024
- Set the scene for intentional ice cream occasions as routine plays less of a role
- Graph 30: associations with ice cream, by generation, 2024
- Tap into the snackable treats trend
- Graph 31: associations with frozen novelties, by generation, 2024
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Innovation and Marketing Trends
- Launch activity and innovation
- New-ish options to explore: a highlight on chocolate maximalism
- Build on already established premium perceptions with cross category brand collaborations
- Anything can be a sandwich
- Formats support the frozen (sweet) snack occasion
- Align ‘better’ with premium
- From maximized flavors to maximized size
- ‘We’ all scream for protein…
- Indulgence spills into new categories, occasions
- Flavourscape AI: ice cream, frozen yogurt, frozen desserts
- Marketing and advertising
- Off the shelf brand collaborations
- Zero-proofing frozen treat occasions…
- Opportunities
- There’s a time for routine and a place for novel experiences
- Cross-category inspiration infuses new-ish experiences
- Proven quality is up for grabs
- Bring away from home experiences home
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Appendix
- Market definition
- Consumer research methodology
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
- Market size methodology
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- Total retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel
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