2026
9
US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Market Report 2026
2026-05-08T12:01:24+00:00
REP9088F45F_96A5_4DF3_88F4_5F96A56DF346
3695
193287
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Report
en_GB
The US ice cream and frozen novelties market is valued a just over $19bn with enjoyment as a cornerstone, with 85% of consumers in agreement ice cream feels fun. Consumer…
US
Desserts and Ice Cream
simple

US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Market Report 2026

"At their core, frozen treats are about enjoyment. Ingredient, textural and format innovations can amplify joy and help consumers find personal moments of indulgence."

Sydney Riebe, Analyst - US Food and Drink

Sydney Riebe, Analyst - US Food and Drink

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  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    • What you need to know
    • Outlook for ice cream and frozen novelties
    • Opportunities
    • Flavor as a seasonal trigger for discovery and trade‑up
    • Premium perceptions start with quality ingredients
    • Innovate with the optimal base in mind
    • Discover the top five trend territories for success in US snacking using Black Swan’s social prediction technology
  2. THE MARKET

    • Snapshot – market size and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
    • Consumers and the economic outlook
    • Consumer confidence remains depressed as new economic concerns arise
    • Graph 1: consumer sentiment index, 2022-26
    • Price pressures continue to impact ice cream ingredients
    • Weight management trends impact how consumers indulge
    • Graph 2: snacking frequency, by GLP-1 usage, 2025
    • Warming weather is melting seasonality
    • Market size and forecast
    • Moderate growth ahead for ice cream and frozen novelties
    • Market size and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
    • Graph 3: total retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Total retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Market segmentation
    • Frozen novelties segment proves itself as category leader
    • Graph 4: total retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment
    • Market/brand share
    • Total ice cream brands
    • Graph 5: ice cream and frozen novelties market share, 2025
    • MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies
    • Competition heats up the frozen novelties segment
    • MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands
    • Ice cream successes are polarized from BFY to extra indulgent brands
    • MULO sales of ice cream, by leading companies and brands
    • Uneven brand performance across struggling frozen yogurt/non-dairy segment
    • MULO sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, by leading companies and brands
    • Sherbet/sorbet/ices continue to find strong sale growth
    • MULO sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by leading companies and brands
  3. THE CONSUMER

    • Keep enjoyment at the heart of frozen treats
    • Ice cream can be a mood booster, especially for younger consumers
    • Graph 6: frozen treat attitudes – NET any agree, by generation , 2026
    • Little frozen treats can pack a big punch when it comes to fun
    • Foodservice ice cream is driven by younger consumers
    • Graph 7: frozen treat purchase location, by generation, 2026
    • Room to improve perceptions of fun for at and AFH ice cream occasions
    • Graph 8: frozen treat associations, 2026
    • Indulgence and BFY can live in the same space
    • Balance is key for ice cream enthusiasts
    • Serve up convenient indulgence for parents
    • Graph 9: types of frozen treats purchased, by parental status, 2026
    • Indulgent and moderative associations with ice cream are comparable
    • Graph 10: frozen treat associations, 2026
    • Ice cream additions and customizations can sweeten the deal
    • Textural innovation can capture casual to engaged ice cream consumers
    • Graph 11: frozen treats innovation interest, by repertoire of products purchased, 2026
    • CPG frozen treats that focus on texture
    • Formats that invite personalization can connect with younger consumers
    • Graph 12: frozen treat attitudes – NET any agree, by generation, 2026
    • Align frozen treat’s indulgence with dietary needs
    • Graph 13: frozen treat attitudes – NET any agree, by GLP-1 usage, 2026
    • Where consumers look for value in frozen treat
    • Gen Z is redefining value in frozen treats
    • Graph 14: frozen treat value perceptions, by generation, 2026
    • Balance comfort and discovery to drive value
    • Taking ice cream from special treat to attainable indulgence
    • Graph 15: frozen treat purchase location, by financial situation, 2026
  4. PRODUCT, INNOVATION AND MARKETING

    • Create indulgent moments for consumers
    • Frozen treats that lead with indulgence outperform the market
    • Functional innovations address evolving consumer needs
    • Innovative packaging that leads with convenience
    • Global flavors let consumers travel via their taste buds
    • Mixue brings affordable frozen treats to the US market
  5. APPENDIX

    • Market definition
    • Market size sources and methodology
    • The market
    • Forecast methodology
    • Forecast methodology – fan chart
    • Market size and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
    • Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices 2023 and 2025
    • Market size and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of ice cream, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
    • The consumer
    • Consumer research questions
    • Consumer research methodology
    • Repertoire analysis methodology
    • TURF methodology
    • How to read: TURF analysis
    • US generation groups
    • Abbreviations

US Ice Cream Industry – Trends and Insights

  • The US ice cream and frozen novelties market is valued a just over $19bn with enjoyment as a cornerstone, with 85% of consumers in agreement ice cream feels fun. Consumer behaviors are evolving, with 52% of ice cream buyers now alternating between full-calorie and BFY options, highlighting a clear appeal for variety and balanced indulgence. Notably, the frozen novelties segment continues to outpace classic tubs, driven by consumer craving for portioned convenience and novelty, especially among younger consumers and highly engaged parents.
  • While egg prices have stabilized, inflation remains sticky for key ingredients. Chocolate costs remain high, with manufacturers slow to pass through recent cocoa price relief as they recover past volatility and offset tariffs. These pressure points are contributing to price-sensitive habits, with some consumers starting to trade down on format or pack size if not on treat type. Despite this, demand for fun, experience and comfort sustains category resilience.
  • Looking forward, the greatest opportunity is in maximizing seasonal, sensorial and global-flavor LTOs as 77% of heavy frozen treat shoppers say they actively switch habits by season. These launches encourage premium trade-ups and excitement. The biggest threat is sustained ingredient inflation, which could further erode margins and risk pushing price-sensitive shoppers towards cheaper treats or alternative indulgences, emphasizing the need for brands to reinforce both value and enjoyment through innovation.

This Report Looks at the Following Areas:

  • The frozen treat market and future expectations
  • Frozen treat purchase locations
  • Interest in frozen treat innovations
  • Frozen treat associations by type
  • Perceptions of value and premium frozen treats
  • Frozen treat attitudes and behaviors
  • Frozen treat innovation and marketing

Market Definitions

This Report examines retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties (often referred to as “frozen treats” for the sake of brevity). For the purposes of this Report, the ice cream and frozen novelties market has been segmented as follows:

  • Ice cream/frozen dairy dessert (including gelato)
  • Frozen novelties (eg ice cream bars, sandwiches, cones, popsicles and the like, all with the advantage of hand-held convenience, single portions/portion control and snack friendliness)
  • Frozen yogurt and dairy alternatives (including non-dairy items made from soy or other dairy alternatives)
  • Sherbet, sorbet and ices
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