US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Market Report 2026
2026-05-08T12:01:24+00:00
REP9088F45F_96A5_4DF3_88F4_5F96A56DF346
3695
193287
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Report
en_GB
The US ice cream and frozen novelties market is valued a just over $19bn with enjoyment as a cornerstone, with 85% of consumers in agreement ice cream feels fun. Consumer…
US
Desserts and Ice Cream
simple
US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Market Report 2026
"At their core, frozen treats are about enjoyment. Ingredient, textural and format innovations can amplify joy and help consumers find personal moments of indulgence."
Sydney Riebe, Analyst - US Food and Drink
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What you need to know
Outlook for ice cream and frozen novelties
Opportunities
Flavor as a seasonal trigger for discovery and trade‑up
Premium perceptions start with quality ingredients
Innovate with the optimal base in mind
Discover the top five trend territories for success in US snacking using Black Swan’s social prediction technology
THE MARKET
Snapshot – market size and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
Consumers and the economic outlook
Consumer confidence remains depressed as new economic concerns arise
Graph 1: consumer sentiment index, 2022-26
Price pressures continue to impact ice cream ingredients
Weight management trends impact how consumers indulge
Graph 2: snacking frequency, by GLP-1 usage, 2025
Warming weather is melting seasonality
Market size and forecast
Moderate growth ahead for ice cream and frozen novelties
Market size and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
Graph 3: total retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2019-30
Total retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2019-30
Market segmentation
Frozen novelties segment proves itself as category leader
Graph 4: total retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2019-30
Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment
Market/brand share
Total ice cream brands
Graph 5: ice cream and frozen novelties market share, 2025
MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies
Competition heats up the frozen novelties segment
MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands
Ice cream successes are polarized from BFY to extra indulgent brands
MULO sales of ice cream, by leading companies and brands
Uneven brand performance across struggling frozen yogurt/non-dairy segment
MULO sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, by leading companies and brands
Sherbet/sorbet/ices continue to find strong sale growth
MULO sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by leading companies and brands
THE CONSUMER
Keep enjoyment at the heart of frozen treats
Ice cream can be a mood booster, especially for younger consumers
Graph 6: frozen treat attitudes – NET any agree, by generation , 2026
Little frozen treats can pack a big punch when it comes to fun
Foodservice ice cream is driven by younger consumers
Graph 7: frozen treat purchase location, by generation, 2026
Room to improve perceptions of fun for at and AFH ice cream occasions
Graph 8: frozen treat associations, 2026
Indulgence and BFY can live in the same space
Balance is key for ice cream enthusiasts
Serve up convenient indulgence for parents
Graph 9: types of frozen treats purchased, by parental status, 2026
Indulgent and moderative associations with ice cream are comparable
Graph 10: frozen treat associations, 2026
Ice cream additions and customizations can sweeten the deal
Textural innovation can capture casual to engaged ice cream consumers
Graph 11: frozen treats innovation interest, by repertoire of products purchased, 2026
CPG frozen treats that focus on texture
Formats that invite personalization can connect with younger consumers
Graph 12: frozen treat attitudes – NET any agree, by generation, 2026
Align frozen treat’s indulgence with dietary needs
Graph 13: frozen treat attitudes – NET any agree, by GLP-1 usage, 2026
Where consumers look for value in frozen treat
Gen Z is redefining value in frozen treats
Graph 14: frozen treat value perceptions, by generation, 2026
Balance comfort and discovery to drive value
Taking ice cream from special treat to attainable indulgence
Graph 15: frozen treat purchase location, by financial situation, 2026
PRODUCT, INNOVATION AND MARKETING
Create indulgent moments for consumers
Frozen treats that lead with indulgence outperform the market
Global flavors let consumers travel via their taste buds
Mixue brings affordable frozen treats to the US market
APPENDIX
Market definition
Market size sources and methodology
The market
Forecast methodology
Forecast methodology – fan chart
Market size and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices 2023 and 2025
Market size and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2019-30
Market size and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
Market size and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2019-30
Market size and forecast of ice cream, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
Market size and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2019-30
Market size and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
Market size and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2019-30
Market size and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-30
Market forecast and prediction intervals
The consumer
Consumer research questions
Consumer research methodology
Repertoire analysis methodology
TURF methodology
How to read: TURF analysis
US generation groups
Abbreviations
US Ice Cream Industry – Trends and Insights
The US ice cream and frozen novelties market is valued a just over $19bn with enjoyment as a cornerstone, with 85% of consumers in agreement ice cream feels fun. Consumer behaviors are evolving, with 52% of ice cream buyers now alternating between full-calorie and BFY options, highlighting a clear appeal for variety and balanced indulgence. Notably, the frozen novelties segment continues to outpace classic tubs, driven by consumer craving for portioned convenience and novelty, especially among younger consumers and highly engaged parents.
While egg prices have stabilized, inflation remains sticky for key ingredients. Chocolate costs remain high, with manufacturers slow to pass through recent cocoa price relief as they recover past volatility and offset tariffs. These pressure points are contributing to price-sensitive habits, with some consumers starting to trade down on format or pack size if not on treat type. Despite this, demand for fun, experience and comfort sustains category resilience.
Looking forward, the greatest opportunity is in maximizing seasonal, sensorial and global-flavor LTOs as 77% of heavy frozen treat shoppers say they actively switch habits by season. These launches encourage premium trade-ups and excitement. The biggest threat is sustained ingredient inflation, which could further erode margins and risk pushing price-sensitive shoppers towards cheaper treats or alternative indulgences, emphasizing the need for brands to reinforce both value and enjoyment through innovation.
This Report Looks at the Following Areas:
The frozen treat market and future expectations
Frozen treat purchase locations
Interest in frozen treat innovations
Frozen treat associations by type
Perceptions of value and premium frozen treats
Frozen treat attitudes and behaviors
Frozen treat innovation and marketing
Market Definitions
This Report examines retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties (often referred to as “frozen treats” for the sake of brevity). For the purposes of this Report, the ice cream and frozen novelties market has been segmented as follows:
Ice cream/frozen dairy dessert (including gelato)
Frozen novelties (eg ice cream bars, sandwiches, cones, popsicles and the like, all with the advantage of hand-held convenience, single portions/portion control and snack friendliness)
Frozen yogurt and dairy alternatives (including non-dairy items made from soy or other dairy alternatives)
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