Currently valued at $22.6 billion, the in-store bakery (ISB) market is poised for continued growth, driven by both inflation-related pricing and sustained demand for fresh, high-quality, and accessible baked goods. These offerings often serve as a more attainable, and more importantly convenient, alternative to traditional standalone bakeries.
In-store Bakery Industry Trends
Customer Loyalty
To attract and retain customers, ISBs will need to focus on a balanced mix of offerings, ranging from enticing sweet treats to versatile staples like bread and breakfast items. Building customer loyalty requires solutions-oriented offerings, such as smaller portions for smaller households, snacks that fit seamlessly into daily routines, and an online presence to engage e-grocery shoppers. By positioning ISBs not just as a place for products, but also as a source of convenience and solutions, grocery stores can foster stronger customer connections and encourage repeat visits.
Sweet Bakery Dominates
While desserts remain the largest share of the category, breads and rolls, along with breakfast bakery items, are experiencing strong growth due to their versatility and ability to meet a wider range of needs and occasions that desserts may not always fulfill.
Mintel In-store Bakery Market Report – What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analyzed in the Report:
- Types of in-store bakery products purchased
- Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, by product type
- Motivations for in-store bakery purchase
- Interest in in-store bakery product offerings
- Attitudes toward in-store bakery
- Interest in in-store bakery concepts
- Innovation, marketing and opportunities in in-store bakery
Report Scope and FAQ
What is an ISB? ISBs are bakeries within supermarkets, mass merchandisers or club stores that offer an assortment of bakery products, such as breads, cakes, pies, bagels, cookies, doughnuts, and muffins. Unlike the bread aisles found in these stores, ISBs generally have a dedicated counter space with staff to assist customers, and often bake products on site.
The following are excluded from this Report, with the exception of comparisons to in-store bakeries:
- Retail “stand-alone” bakeries
- Retail bakery specialty stores
- Bakeries in other types of locations, such as restaurants or convenience stores
- In-store cafés
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Julia Mills. Julia joined Mintel as a Food & Drink Analyst in 2023 after spending two years working in the Food & CPG industry. Prior to Mintel, she analyzed trends & insights in both the food distribution and market research space. She holds a BA in Food & Consumer Package Goods Marketing from Western Michigan University.
Turn ISBs into hubs for exploration that engage all five senses, transforming them into true destinations, rather than just the convenient option.
Julia Mills
Food & Drink Analyst
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size & forecast of in-store bakery
- Market predictions
- What consumers want & why
- Opportunities
- Craft memorable in-store bakery experiences
- Create spaces for connecting with consumers on a deeper level
- Hone in on snackable, grab-and-go offerings for changing lifestyle demands
- Celebrate the small moments with mini baked goods
- Downsizing baked goods upsizes occasions
- Graph 1: perception of Trader Joe’s Carrot Mini Sheet Cake vs other cakes, pastries, & sweet goods, 2017-25
- Turn ISBs into a go-to for simple meal solutions
- Graph 2: consumer response to “most of my cooking involves assembling a variety of pre-made products,” by age, 2024
- Blur the lines between in-store bakery and center-store flavors
- Graph 3: [no title]
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MARKET DYNAMICS
- Market context
- Market drivers
- Two-thirds describe their financial situation as something other than “healthy”
- Graph 4: financial situation, 2024
- ISBs are not immune from price hikes
- “Little treat” culture creates new moments for “just because” celebrations
- Honey, I shrunk the “households…”
- Graph 5: households, by number of members, 2011 and 2021
- Diversity defines the future of the US population
- Graph 6: distribution of US generations, by race, 2023
- Consider offering baked goods for cultural holidays to bridge the gap
- Graph 7: cultural celebrations/holidays typically celebrated or observed, 2024
- Online grocery shopping creates hurdles (and opportunity) for traditional in-store bakeries
- Graph 8: shopping methods – nets, 2020 versus 2024
- Graph 9: shopping method, 2020 versus 2024
- Keep ISB top-of-mind on online grocery shopping platforms
- Graph 10: online shopping incidence – net, by select categories, 2023 versus 2024
- Expectations for transparency extend to in-store bakeries
- Graph 11: agreement with what companies and brands should be doing in regards to sustainability, 2023
- Market size and forecast
- ISBs’ balance of convenience, quality and affordability drives its success
- ISBs expected to stay afloat with steady growth
- Retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery
- Market segmentation
- Support consumers in creating routines with ISB, from sweet to savory options
- Desserts dominate sales, while other segments catch up with strong growth
- Graph 12: total retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery, by segment, at current prices, 2019-29
- Retail sales of in-store bakery, by segment
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer fast facts
- In-store bakery purchase
- What you need to know:
- Consumers turn to ISB for indulgent treats to everyday staples
- Graph 13: types of products purchased from in-store bakeries, 2023-25
- Keep Baby Boomers from ageing out of ISB
- Graph 14: types of products purchased from in-store bakeries, by generation, 2025
- Smaller households represent an underdeveloped market to reach
- Graph 15: types of products purchased from in-store bakeries, by household size, 2025
- Purchase in one-person households: a deep dive
- Graph 16: types of products purchased from in-store bakeries, by one-person households, 2024-25
- Tight finances keep consumers focused on essentials
- Graph 17: products purchased from an in-store bakery in the past six months, 2025
- Frequency of in-store bakery purchase
- What you need to know:
- Create new opportunities for ISB offerings to drive higher frequency
- Graph 18: frequency of in-store bakery purchase, 2025
- Artisan and specialty breads become a staple for younger consumers
- Graph 19: frequency of artisan/specialty bread purchase, by generation, 2025
- Graph 20: frequency of sliced bread purchase, by generation, 2025
- Mimic a coffee shop vibe with single-serve or small packaging to boost impulse sweet sales
- Graph 21: frequency of donut purchase, by generation, 2025
- Graph 22: frequency of cookie purchase, by generation, 2025
- Motivation for in-store bakery purchase
- What you need to know:
- Encourage impulse purchases to build cravings
- Graph 23: motivation for in-store bakery purchase, 2025
- Younger consumers put ISBs’ freshness into question
- Graph 24: motivation for in-store bakery purchase, by generation, 2025
- Lifestyle demands stretch priorities from value to functionality
- Graph 25: motivation for in-store bakery purchase, by generation, 2025
- Balance practically with indulgence to turn ISB into a frequent destination for single households
- Graph 26: motivation for in-store bakery purchase, by household size, 2025
- Men prioritize quality, women shop for celebrations
- Graph 27: motivation for in-store bakery purchase, by gender, 2025
- Interest in in-store bakery products
- What you need to know:
- Add a dash of convenience, BFY ingredients, and a sprinkle of variety in offerings
- Graph 28: interest in in-store bakery offerings, 2025
- Sweet baked goods can serve as a vessel for flavor innovation
- Graph 29: interest in in-store bakery offerings, by select baked goods purchased, 2025
- Package unique flavors and formulations in snack-friendly sizes for younger consumers
- Graph 30: interest in in-store bakery offerings, by generation, 2025
- Offering new products without promotions alienate those with tight budgets
- Graph 31: interest in in-store bakery offerings, by household income, 2025
- Single-serve options offer a gateway for trial in households both big and small
- Graph 32: interest in in-store bakery offerings, by household size, 2025
- Attitudes toward in-store bakeries
- What you need to know:
- Find the perfect blend of quality and convenience in ISB
- Graph 33: attitudes towards in-store bakeries, 2025
- The ISB experience alone pulls a lot of weight in attracting younger shoppers
- Graph 34: attitudes towards in-store bakeries, by generation, 2025
- Financially struggling consumers prioritize core factors like value and time savings
- Graph 35: attitudes towards in-store bakeries, by financial situation, 2025
- Embrace the bells and whistles to stay competitive in urban settings
- Graph 36: attitudes towards in-store bakeries, by area, 2025
- Interest in in-store bakery concepts
- What you need to know:
- Attract customers through the senses, convert them with value
- Graph 37: interest in in-store bakery concepts, 2025
- Create meaningful connections at every point in the shopper journey
- Graph 38: interest in in-store bakery concepts – extremely interested, by generation, 2025
- Female consumers place more weight on experiential elements
- Graph 39: interest in in-store bakery concepts – extremely interested, by gender, 2025
- ISB experiences can complement value strategies
- Graph 40: interest in in-store bakery concepts – extremely interested, by financial situation, 2025
- Innovative experiences boost ISB’s competitiveness in urban areas
- Graph 41: interest in in-store bakery concepts – extremely interested, by area, 2025
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
- Launch activity and innovation
- Going small meets big needs
- Trending flavors: from unique global tastes to nostalgic favorites closer to home
- ISBs make global baked goods accessible to the everyday consumer
- ISBs bring premium offerings down to attainable price points
- Incorporating superior ingredients can pull a lot of weight in enhancing consumer perceptions
- Graph 42: perception of Bettergoods Authentic Gourmet Double Cheese Bagels versus all other bread & bread products, 2017-25
- Marketing and advertising
- In-store bakeries get cozy with traditional bakeries
- Packaging is a blank canvas to communicate quality
- In-store bakeries enter the digital world
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APPENDIX
- Market definition
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Generations
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- Data
- Total retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Average annual household spending on in-store bakery
- Total retail sales of in-store bakery, by segment, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of desserts, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices
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