2022
9
US In-Store Bakery Market Report 2022
2022-02-24T03:09:20+00:00
OX1100031
3695
148231
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Report
en_GB
“The in-store bakery pulled itself up from the loss faced during early pandemic months to post a record year of sales growth in 2021. In the context of prolonged elevated…

US In-Store Bakery Market Report 2022

£ 3,695 (Excl.Tax)

Description

This report provides comprehensive and current information and analysis of the US In-Store Bakery market including US In-Store Bakery market size, anticipated market forecast, relevant market segmentation, and industry trends for the In-Store Bakery market in the US.

Current market landscape

Correlating with a record year of dollar sales growth, the ISB consumer base grew nearly 20% from 2021-22. While some growth can be credited to the resumption of services following pandemic-driven closures in some markets, alignment with current “new normal” lifestyles and the ability to reach new audiences and occasions have also driven incremental ISB growth.

Future in store market trends

Inflationary prices across sectors will cause consumers to evaluate areas where costs can be cut, and rein in discretionary grocery spend. Price leads among reasons ISB shoppers opt for products in the aisle over the ISB; thus, even higher perimeter prices will further draw consumers to center of store. On the other hand, spiking menu prices will further delay consumers’ return to foodservice. Restaurant avoidance can be of benefit to the ISB, especially if retailers can implement concepts that more closely replicate the restaurant experience.

Parties, events and celebrations have historically been a staple of the ISB, all of which continue to be negatively impacted by fluctuating pandemic conditions. The ISB is challenged to rethink its purpose, and evolve to meet more micro-occasions for entertainment and joy.

The ISB can continue to look for ways to fill voids left open by lagging foodservice recovery. Even as pandemic conditions fade, evolving the ISB to more closely resemble a standalone operation can drive retailer trips and loyalty as well as improve the shopper experience.

Read on to discover more about the US In-Store Bakery consumer market, read our US Prepared Cakes, Pies, and Pastries Market Report 2021, or take a look at our other Food and Foodservice research reports.

Quickly understand the baked goods market

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the In-store Bakery market.
  • ISB products purchased.
  • ISB shopping behaviors.
  • Important ISB purchase drivers.
  • Reasons for ISB purchase versus baked good aisle.
  • Innovations that will motivate purchase.

Covered in this report

ISBs are bakeries within supermarkets, mass merchandisers or club stores that offer an assortment of bakery products, such as breads, cakes, pies, bagels, cookies, doughnuts and muffins. Unlike the bread aisles found in these stores, ISBs generally have a dedicated counter space with staff to assist customers, and often bake products on site. In addition to the ISBs themselves, where appropriate, leading suppliers to ISBs are also discussed.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Sydney Olson, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink Analyst sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis on in store bakery market research to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The in-store bakery pulled itself up from the loss faced during early pandemic months to post a record year of sales growth in 2021. In the context of prolonged elevated reliance on retailers and at-home food, a spotlight is shining on all grocery categories that can help consumers break the monotony, ease cooking barriers and fill the fresh food void left open by the lagging foodservice sectors. However, the inherently celebratory and joyful nature of the ISB, and thus its ability to deliver on consumers’ emotional need for respite and everyday enjoyment, positions the category in an even better light.
Sydney Olson, Food and Drink Analyst
Sydney Olson
Food and Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • This Report looks at the following areas
    • Definition
    • Market context
    • COVID-19: US context
    • Economic and other assumptions
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of the ISB, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 2: Category outlook, 2022-27
    • Opportunities and challenges
    • Avoiding inflation loss to the aisle and reaping gains from foodservice
      • Figure 3: Consumer price index change from previous year, 2020-21
    • Support for the burned-out cook
      • Figure 4: At-home cooking attitudes
    • Fun-sized bakery, full-size profit
      • Figure 5: Favorite Day “mini” launches, 2021
    • The local bakery aesthetic
      • Figure 6: Concepts to motivate purchase, 2022
    • Reinforcing the fresh edge
      • Figure 7: Reasons for shopping the ISB, 2022
    • Restaurant resemblance
      • Figure 8: Products to motivate purchase, 2022
  3. Market Size and Forecast

    • Pandemic impact turns in favor of the ISB
      • Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of ISB, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2016-26
  4. Segment Performance

    • Maintain dessert momentum through novelty indulgence
      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2016-26
    • Breads and rolls hold the keys to tension in the kitchen
      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2016-26
    • The most important meal of the day – no matter where you eat it
      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2016-26
  5. Market Factors

    • Inflation tempts consumers with center of store
      • Figure 14: Consumer price index change from previous year, 2020-21
    • Support for the conflicted cook
      • Figure 15: At-home cooking attitudes
    • Bring the celebratory associations of the bakery to everyday life
      • Figure 16: Attitudes toward the ISB – Select attitudes, 2022
    • Cakes, pastries and sweet goods drive private label share growth
      • Figure 17: Attitudes toward private label food and drink, 2022
      • Figure 18: Share of bakery launches, by branded/private label, 2019-21
      • Figure 19: Share of private label bakery launches, by bakery category, 2019-21
  6. Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities

    • Minis everywhere: honey, I shrunk the ISB
      • Figure 20: Favorite Day “mini” launches, 2021
    • Baking for a new demographic: pet parents
      • Figure 21: Attitudes toward pet food and treats, 2021
      • Figure 22: Launches of pet food from non-pet food and drink brands, 2021
    • Imperfect baked goods
      • Figure 23: Imperfect foods Instagram posts, 2021
    • ISB as central hub for small/local biz
      • Figure 24: Attitudes toward shopping small, 2021
    • The dine-in, in-store bakery
  7. The ISB Consumer: Fast Facts

    • Consumers’ 2021-22 lifestyles are benefiting the ISB across segments (see The ISB Shopper)
    • The ISB has wide-reaching appeal, overindexing with consumers 25-54, but there is room to grow with several core demographics (see the ISB Shopper)
    • Most US adults purchase 4+ product types from the ISB, driven by sweet baked good/desserts (see Products Purchased)
    • The ISB wins freshness and taste; the aisle owns convenience and price (see Aisle v ISB Purchases)
    • The ISB is already filling foodservice voids, but is challenged to maintain momentum amid foodservice recovery (see Motivating Purchase – Product and Concept Innovation)
  8. The ISB Shopper

    • ISB sees significant annual growth, challenged to maintain momentum
      • Figure 25: ISB purchases – NET, 2022
    • Growth to be found with youngest and oldest consumers
      • Figure 26: ISB purchases– NET, by age, 2022
    • Strengthen community connection in urban ISBs
      • Figure 27: ISB purchases– NET, by area, 2022
    • Grow parent base through bread and offerings geared at young children
      • Figure 28: ISB purchases– NET, by parent status, 2022
      • Figure 29: ISB purchases– NET, by number of children, 2022
      • Figure 30: ISB purchases for whom – NET, 2022
    • Stick with workday eaters as they return to the office
      • Figure 31: ISB purchases– NET, by work situation, 2022
  9. ISB Segments Shopped

    • ISB segments are aligned with current pandemic-driven lifestyles
    • Desserts boost morale, develop concepts to reinforce
      • Figure 32: Attitudes toward the ISB – Select attitudes, 2022
    • Bread from the ISB reaches cooks of all kinds
    • Months of mornings at home benefit ISB breakfast
    • Double down on restaurant replacement behavior
  10. ISB Products Purchased

    • Create excitement and loyalty by evolving popular favorites
      • Figure 33: Products purchased, 2022
    • Raise the bar on fresh baked cookies
    • Nearly everyone buys bread – only half from the ISB
    • The in-store donut shop
      • Figure 34: Donut purchases, by parent status, 2022
    • Drive larger basket sizes in the ISB
      • Figure 35: Products purchased, 2022
  11. ISB Shopping Behavior

    • Name brands are moving in
      • Figure 36: Shopping behaviors – Select behaviors 2022
    • Pandemic accelerates challenge to impulse shopping
      • Figure 37: Shopping behaviors – Select behaviors, by item type purchased, 2022
    • Continued need for sanitary measures threatens other perceptions
      • Figure 38: Opinion on sanitary measures, by age, 2022
  12. Aisle vs ISB Purchases

    • Securing ISB loyalty as grocery spend normalizes
    • Guide consumers to a superior taste experience
      • Figure 39: Reasons for shopping the ISB, 2022
      • Figure 40: Reasons for shopping the ISB – freshness, by age, 2022
      • Figure 41: Reasons for shopping the ISB – health, by age, 2022
    • Supporting local is an opportunity
    • Packaged products own the value of shopping convenience
      • Figure 42: Reasons for shopping the aisle, 2022
    • Combating the value barrier of young and old consumers
      • Figure 43: Reasons for shopping the aisle – price, by age, 2022
  13. Motivating Purchase – Product and Concept Innovation

    • ISB innovations points to desire for convenience, experience and balance
      • Figure 44: Concepts that motivate purchase, 2022
    • Make healthier options available, but keep somewhat confined
      • Figure 45: Concepts to motivate purchase, by age, 2022
    • Infusing the restaurant experience
      • Figure 46: Concepts to motivate purchase – onsite dining, by age, 2022
    • The power of bakery croissants
      • Figure 47: Products to motivate purchase, 2022
      • Figure 48: Products to motivate purchase – Select products, by age 2022
    • Cooking shortcuts consumers can feel good about
      • Figure 49: Concepts to motivate purchase, by parent status, 2022
    • Small sizes, large opportunity
      • Figure 50: Concepts to motivate purchase, HH size, 2022
  14. Purchase Attributes

    • All eyes on the price
      • Figure 51: ISB purchase drivers, 2022
    • Health is not a leading purchase driver
    • Occasions and events still drive purchase
      • Figure 52: ISB purchase drivers, 2022
  15. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Forecast
    • Consumer survey data
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
  16. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 56: Average household spending on in-store bakeries, 2016-21
      • Figure 57: Total US retail sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2019 and 2021
      • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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Data

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*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.

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