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"Despite economic pressures, consumers still prioritize winter holiday spending. However, resilience may be tested in the season ahead as uncertainty clouds the outlook."
Brittany Steiger, Principal Analyst - Retail & eCommerce
Earlier this year, the outlook for the 2025 winter holiday season appeared optimistic after 2024 holiday spending exceeded expectations. Heading into 2025, however, that brightening outlook is beginning to dim as economic uncertainty mounts. Last season’s growth overextended many consumers leading to soft retail spending in January and February and plans to scale back purchases in the season ahead. The Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have further complicated the outlook, unsettling global markets and raising fears about inflation and a possible recession.
Overall, economic pressures have continued to impact the holiday season. As of March, 54% of consumers agreed that financial stress makes it difficult to celebrate the winter holidays as they would prefer. Despite this, consumers have time and again proven their resilience, prioritizing the winter holidays as essential. It is still reasonable to expect this holiday season could mirror last year’s growth, with consumers finding a stable pattern of budget-conscious buying, omnichannel shopping and strong emotional connection to the season. However, uncertainty remains on the horizon; spending growth will hinge on consumers’ financial health and the state of the economy as the year progresses.
A look ahead at the upcoming 2025 US winter holiday shopping season, including:
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