US Mass Merchandisers Market Report 2025
"The future of mass merchandisers lies in full omnichannel integration, AI-driven personalization, and supply chain optimization."
Vince DiGirolamo, Director, North America Reports
The US mass merchandiser sector stands at a pivotal point. Shoppers remain highly value-focused in the face of rising prices and cautious sentiment, but their expectations for retail experiences now cover more than low prices – convenience, membership perks, digital and in-store innovation, service quality and ethical business practices all drive competitive success.
The market is estimated to reach $786 billion in 2025, with steady expansion forecast to $920 billion+ by 2030. Economic headwinds linger with tariffs, inflation and labor market shifts, but mass merchandisers’ breadth, adaptability and continued investment in consumer trust bolster their resilience. Strategic opportunities include leveraging data and AI for personalized shopping and inventory efficiencies, elevating loyalty through exclusive programs and experiential retail, advancing sustainability and localism efforts, and deepening private label assortment – especially in core traffic-driving categories like grocery, household essentials and personal care. Building loyalty in a highly competitive, increasingly commoditized retail landscape requires mass merchandisers to deliver not only low prices, but personalized convenience, transparency and differentiated in-store engagement.
For brands and retailers, charting the next five years means expanding their definition of “value” – finding the balance between practical and emotional value. The mass channel’s evolution will hinge on its ability to adapt quickly to economic shifts, foster trust and offer unique advantages that pure online or specialty retailers cannot replicate.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Landscape of the mass merchandiser market
- Shopping occasions
- Retailers shopped
- Key drivers of retailer preferences
- Desired improvements
- Innovations from across the industry
Market Definitions
Mintel has defined a mass merchandiser as a large retail store offering a wide range of product categories, often at discounted prices, including but not limited to appliances; clothing and accessories; footwear; furniture; office equipment; household products; health, beauty and personal care products; electronics; music and entertainment; sporting goods; food and beverages. These stores have central customer checkout areas, generally located in the front of the store, and may have additional cash registers located in one or more individual departments.
This Report will focus on key national players in the market including Walmart, Target and to a lesser degree, Amazon. It will reference other competitors such as warehouse clubs and dollar stores to provide competitive context, but these are not the focus of the Report.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Outlook for mass merchandisers
- Opportunities
- Opportunities for mass merchandisers
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THE MARKET
- Market context
- Market size and forecast: US mass merchandisers 2025-30
- Steady growth ahead, but “value” must evolve
- Sales growth expected to moderate slightly after an estimated nearly 4% gain in 2025
- Graph 1: total retail sales and fan chart forecast of mass merchandisers, at current prices, 2019-30
- Retail sales and forecast of mass merchandisers
- Household spending nears $6K annually at supercenters and warehouse clubs
- Retailer performance
- Walmart drives growth with ecommerce expansion, tech investments and customer-focused strategies
- Walmart’s grocery business is on fire
- Graph 2: Walmart net sales, FY 2023-25
- Graph 3: Walmart merchandise sales, by product category, FY 2023-25
- Target has been facing challenges
- Target’s backsliding has continued thus far in FY25
- Graph 4: Target net sales, FY 2022-24
- Graph 5: Target merchandise sales, by category, FY2022-24
- Amazon’s growth driven by AWS and rising ad revenue
- Amazon sees 10% sales gain in 2024
- Graph 6: Amazon North American net sales, 2022-24
- Graph 7: Amazon percentage of net sales by groups of similar products and services, 2024
- Market drivers
- Consumers’ top concern is rising prices, meaning mass merchandisers will benefit
- Consumers don’t have much wiggle room left in their budgets
- They have been shifting their shopping behaviors
- Graph 8: economic behaviors, by financial situation, 2025
- Rising prices are changing shopping habits specifically for key categories shopped at mass retailers
- Graph 9: degree of shopping changes due to rising prices by category, 2025
- Mass merchandisers must stay competitive this holiday season
- Graph 10: attitudes toward tariffs and mass merchandisers, 2025
- The rise of localism could affect mass merchandisers, but threats are expected to be minimal
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Shopping occasions
- Grocery shopping drives traffic to mass retailers, while gifting offers untapped potential
- Shopping for entertainment-related reasons is also an opportunity area
- Consumers rely on mass merchandisers for a variety of needs and shopping occasions
- Graph 11: shopping occasions, 2024 versus 2025
- Fun is a universal driver
- Graph 12: shopping at mass merchandisers for fun, by generation and parental status, 2025
- Gifting also has appeal across demos; could be a way to reach more men
- Graph 13: gift shopping at mass merchandisers, by various gender demos, 2025
- Social listening data reveals gifting weaknesses and opportunities
- Retailers shopped
- Mass merchandisers remain a go-to for shoppers
- The big three reign, yet face fierce competition
- Graph 14: retailers shopped – any shopping (net), 2025
- Majority of shopping trips still occur in the store, making investments in improving the in-store experience worthwhile
- Graph 15: retailers shopped by method, 2025
- Club stores are having a ‘moment’
- Graph 16: warehouse clubs shopped in-store, 2024 versus 2025
- Graph 17: warehouse clubs shopped online, 2024 versus 2025
- Meijer maintains its stronghold in the Midwest
- Graph 18: retailers shopped in-store in the East North Central region, 2024 versus 2025
- Gen Z appears to like Walmart and Target’s store experience
- Graph 19: retailers shopped in-store, by generation, 2025
- Amazon also wins some Gen Zs, but loses some Gen Xers and Boomers
- Graph 20: Amazon shoppers, by generation, 2024 versus 2025
- Where are online shoppers shifting to, especially Gen Xers and Boomers?
- Millennials are leaving Walmart in favor of Costco
- Graph 21: in-store Millennial shoppers at Walmart and Costco, 2024 versus 2025
- Graph 22: online Millennial shoppers at Walmart and Costco, 2024 and 2025
- Millennials acknowledge both retailers for key strengths, but Costco outperforms Walmart in more areas
- Demographic profiles show more than just generational differences
- Demographic profiles show more than just generational differences (cont’d)
- Retailer-specific customer bases show more than just generational divides
- Building loyalty in a price-driven market is no easy feat
- High duplication between leading mass merchandisers and their competitors
- Key drivers of retailer preference
- Mass merchandisers can differentiate with customer service
- Other factors for prioritization: ease of shopping, store brand quality and loyalty program evolution
- Retailers should aim to strike a balance between practical and emotional forms of value
- Graph 23: drivers of mass merchandiser preference, 2025
- Younger generations stand out for directing their spending toward retailers whose values align with their own
- Graph 24: drivers of mass merchandiser preference, any importance, by generation, 2025
- They’re also more proactive in seeking information and have higher expectations of retailers
- Ethics matter: most people have changed their shopping approaches at mass merchandisers due to ethical reasons
- Graph 25: change in shopping mass merchandisers for ethical, social or political reasons, 2025
- Gen Z and Millennials are divided in their evolving shopping habits
- Graph 26: change in shopping mass merchandisers for ethical, social or political reasons, by generation, 2025
- Political ideology can shape consumer behavior
- Graph 27: change in shopping mass merchandisers for ethical, social or political reasons, by political ideological affiliation, 2025
- Retailers have a chance to win back conscious consumers
- Graph 28: willingness to shop more at mass merchandisers in the future, by generation, 2025
- Desired improvements
- CSR tops the list with emphasis on sustainability
- Graph 29: desired improvements, 2025
- Retailers should not just offer eco-friendly products, but also help customers discover and shop for them
- Expansion of added-value services continues to be an opportunity worth considering
- Younger consumers gravitate toward the idea of using more services from mass merchandisers, as do parents
- Graph 30: interest in more services from mass merchandisers, by generation and parental status, 2025
- Many ways to win over parents
- Graph 31: desired improvements, by parental status, 2025
- Gen Z and Millennials love the collabs
- Graph 32: interest in shop-in-shop partnerships and collaborations, by generation, 2025
- Companies can explore new brand collaboration ideas
- Consumers split on cashierless checkout
- Graph 33: cashierless checkout preferences, by generation, 2025
- Dollar General pilots “Shop & Go” model
- Target’s accessible checkout offers a more inclusive self-checkout experience
- Multicultural consumers want more culturally-relevant products
- Graph 34: desire for more ethnic products, by race or ethnicity, 2025
- Product assortments can be customized to build multicultural loyalty
- Graph 35: desire for more ethnic products, by race or ethnicity, 2025
- Retailers must rebuild trust to win back consumers who have abandoned or shied away from mass merchandisers
- Graph 36: desired improvements, by change in shopping mass merchandisers for ethical, social or political reasons, 2025
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
- Marketing and advertising
- Walmart’s tech-driven style
- Amazon goes beyond “whole paycheck” stereotype
- Touch, try, transform: Walmart offers a hands-on beauty experience
- Private label meets premium flavor
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APPENDIX
- Market definition
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Retailer perceptions
- Generations
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- Retail sales and forecast of mass merchandisers, at inflation-adjusted prices
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