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Report
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The US milk market is balanced in 2025, with dairy and non-dairy consumption at parity and consumers regularly utilizing both in their routines. The past year has seen both segments…
US
Dairy and Dairy Substitute Drinks
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US Milk and Non-Dairy Milk Market Report 2025
"The steady demand for milk remains driven by nutrition-focused consumers. Dairy's natural appeal and non-dairy's variety are strengths for brands to build on."
In 2025, the US milk market is balanced, with consumers regularly incorporating both dairy and non-dairy milk into their routines.
Non-dairy milk has faced criticism for being overprocessed and containing oils, while dairy milk is re-emerging as a natural option. These trends have driven brands in both segments to reformulate with simpler, more natural ingredients to meet consumer expectations.
Sales in both dairy and non-dairy milk are projected to stabilize, with modest growth expected for dairy milk and leveling off for non-dairy milk. However, tariffs and climate impacts may disrupt production, potentially leading to price increases, though demand for nutritionally sound milk products is expected to remain steady.
Younger consumers and parents are the most engaged with non-dairy milk, while older consumers remain loyal to dairy milk. Despite these differences, both groups prioritize protein as the top benefit they seek in milk products.
Non-dairy milk can grow through innovations in flavor, appealing to adventurous younger consumers, while dairy milk can maintain its audience by emphasizing its existing nutritional benefits. Both segments must balance simplicity with delivering maximum nutrition to meet evolving consumer demands.
Key Issues Covered in the Report
Factors that drive the milk market
Market size and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk
Consumption frequency of dairy and non-dairy milk types
Top occasions for consumption of popular dairy and non-dairy milks
Benefits worth paying for in dairy and non-dairy milks
Frequency of switchers of primary milk type, with an analysis of reasons to switch
Milk attitudes and behaviors
Innovation and marketing strategies of milk brands
Report Details
Details
Published Date
September 2025
Data Range
2019 – 2030
Measurement Metrics
Revenue in US $
Country Focus
United States of America (USA)
Consumer Data
2,000 internet users aged 18+, May 2023, July 2024, and July 2025
Fairlife, Horizon Organic, HP Hood LLC, Danone North America, Blue Diamond Growers, Oatly, Califia Farms LLC, Chobani LLC, Private Label, Ripple Foods, McCormick & Company, Goya Foods Inc, North American Coffee Partnership, RP Foods LLC, Malk, Vita Coco
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What you need to know
Dairy market size and forecast
Non-dairy market size and forecast
Market predictions
What consumers want and why
Opportunities
MARKET DYNAMICS
Market context
Market drivers
Climate will change the dairy industry
Non-dairy milk also faces a climate conundrum
How much will tariffs affect the milk industry?
Starbucks and others move to make non-dairy milk more accessible
Seed oils and overprocessed milk
Making milk healthy again
Dairy prices stabilize after a meteoric rise
Graph 1: dairy and related products, 2010-25
Market size and forecast
Dairy milk’s recent relevance will push it forward
Retail sales and forecast of dairy milk
Graph 2: total retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2019-30
Retail sales and forecast of dairy milk
Non-dairy milk projected to stabilize
Retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk
Graph 3: total retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2019-30
Retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk
Market segmentation of non-dairy milk
Non-dairy milk mellows
Graph 4: total retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2019-30
Retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment
Market share/brand share
Dairy milk sees a surge in protein and family-first offerings
Graph 5: market share of dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, 2025
Market share remains relatively stagnant, but Fairlife makes a move
Non-dairy sees a slight redistribution
Graph 6: market share of non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
Private label sales falter as consumers connect with non-dairy brands
Parity continues to grow in almond milk
Graph 7: market share of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, 2025
Other brands surge; established brands stumble
Flavor flourishes in coconut milk
Graph 8: market share of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, 2025
Coconut milk’s diversity of options stays true
Soy milk remains stable
Graph 9: market share of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, 2025
Silk owns the majority of the market
Oat milk leans on simplicity and familiarity
Graph 10: market share of oat milk, by leading companies and brands, 2025
Others lose ground in the oat milk market
Other non-dairy options pop up, but don’t see massive growth
Graph 11: market share of other non-dairy drinks, by leading companies and brands, 2025
A mixed bag of other non-dairy brands
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk
Non-dairy milk is now at par with dairy milk
Graph 12: past three month purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, 2023-25
Non-dairy speaks to Gen Z and Millennials
Graph 13: past three month purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, by generation, 2023-25
An open category
Traditional options decline while oat, coconut and soy build momentum
Graph 14: past three month purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, by type, 2023-25
Price perceptions paint a story
Graph 15: past three month purchase of dairy milk, by financial situation, 2025
Regional differences drive dairy consistency and non-dairy growth
Graph 16: past three month purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, by region, 2023-25
A dairy decline for younger generations
Graph 17: past three month purchase of dairy milk, by generation, 2025
Non-dairy consumption shifts
Graph 18: past three month purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, by type, 2025
Younger consumers reach for variety
Graph 19: different types of dairy/non-dairy milk bought, by generation, 2025
Types of dairy milk purchased
The gaps left by traditional options are being filled by BFY products…
Graph 20: types of dairy milk purchased, 2023-25
…but price is still a major factor in choice for those that struggle
Graph 21: types of dairy milk purchased, by financial situation, 2025
Help men realize the benefits of whole milk
Types of non-dairy milk purchased
Flavor first for non-dairy fans
Graph 22: types of non-dairy milk products purchased, 2025
Age accounts for a variety in choice
Graph 23: types of non-dairy milk products purchased, by age, 2025
Women opt for non-dairy for the simplicity; men want benefits
Graph 24: types of non-dairy milk products purchased, by gender, 2025
Occasions
Dairy milk struggles with multi-occasion usage
Some plant-based milks are clearly defined while others struggle for identity
Occasions differ between dairy and non-dairy choices
Graph 25: dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, 2025
Soy milk: an increasingly popular option that lacks definition
Graph 26: soy milk occasions, 2025
Dairy milk complements food and cooking while non-dairy mixes well with healthier drinks
Graph 27: dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, 2025
Non-dairy drinks break through blends to stand on their own
Graph 28: dairy and non-dairy milks drank by themselves, 2025
Desired dairy milk benefits
Protein poised to power dairy milk drinkers
Protein is the clear winner in dairy milk
Graph 29: dairy milk benefits consumers are willing to pay more for, % of consumers, 2025
Protein and organic claims form a strong duo
Gen Z and Millennials find dairy benefits most appealing
Graph 30: dairy milk benefits consumers are willing to pay more for, by generation, 2025
Parents prioritize premiums
Graph 31: dairy milk benefits consumers are willing to pay more for, by parental status, 2025
Desired non-dairy milk benefits
Consumers define non-dairy drinks by the benefits they expect them to provide
Consumers are hungrier for non-dairy benefits
Graph 32: non-dairy milk benefits consumers are willing to pay more for, % of consumers, 2025
Stacking popular benefits speaks to the non-dairy crowd
Stacking benefits speaks to the non-dairy crowd
Uncharacteristically, Gen Z go cold on non-dairy benefits
Graph 33: non-dairy milk benefits consumers are willing to pay more for, by generation, 2025
Dairy and non-dairy switchers
A continuing shift in milk preference
Graph 34: select dairy and non-dairy milk behaviors, % of consumers, 2025
Who is switching?
Graph 35: select dairy and non-dairy milk behaviors, by gender, 2025
Graph 36: select dairy and non-dairy milk behaviors, by generation, 2025
Taste, nutrients and naturality drive change toward dairy
Graph 37: reasons for switching to dairy milk as primary type, 2025
Non-dairy fans switch for what’s in the drink
Graph 38: reasons for switching to non-dairy milk as primary type, 2025
Gen Z struggle to define a strong reason to switch to non-dairy
Graph 39: reasons for switching to non-dairy milk as primary type, by select generations, 2025
Attitudes and behaviors
Milk’s nutritional importance is front and center for consumers, elevating composition and processes
Graph 40: select attitude statements, 2025
Ensure milk’s nutrition meets the standards of the daily consumer
Graph 41: select attitude statements, 2025
Non-dairy drinkers are more outspoken than dairy fans
Graph 42: attitude and behavior statements, by exclusive milk usage, 2025
Younger consumers should be the target of new innovations
Graph 43: select attitude statements, % agree, by generation, 2025
INNOVATION AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
Launch activity and innovation
Fairlife’s ultra-filtered success inspires more filtration
Almond milk’s additions
Coconut milk’s new challengers
Soy’s strengths
Oat milk originals
Other non-dairy newcomers
Pistachio milks sprout up
Eclipse hopes to keep imitation milks afloat
New flavor additions to dairy milk can help extend occasions
Plant-based milks go fruity
Oil-free non-dairy milks are born from controversy
Marketing and advertising
Horizon Growing Years goes all-in on nutrients for kids
Lactaid as fun, real milk
Silk breaks into song
APPENDIX
Market definition
Consumer research questions
Consumer research methodology
Generations
Abbreviations and terms
Forecast methodology
Forecast fan chart methodology
The dairy market
Total retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
Average annual household spending on dairy milk
Total retail sales of dairy milk, by channel
Total retail sales of dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2023 and 2025
Supermarket sales of dairy milk
Sales of dairy milk through other retail channels
The non-dairy market
Total retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
Total retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
Total retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
Total retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
Total retail sales and forecast of oat milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
Total retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices
Average annual household spending on non-dairy milk
Total retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2023 and 2025
Total retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel
Total retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2023 and 2025
Supermarket sales of non-dairy milk
Sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels
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