The US Milk and Non-Dairy Market remains stable as milk continues to be a staple in households. However, the types chosen continue to change as consumers see the benefits of both dairy and non-dairy options.
US Milk Industry Analysis
The US milk and non-dairy milk market witnesses a shift in consumption, as consumers increasingly embrace both dairy and non-dairy options. The US milk market encompasses a diverse array of products tailored to different health benefits and flavour preferences, showing resilience and adaptability. The demand for non-dairy alternatives, driven by a desire for flavour and nutrition variety, complements the steadfast popularity of traditional dairy milk, known for its familiar taste and nutritional benefits.
Sales trends indicate stability in the dairy milk industry, with both segments expecting slight growth over the next 5 years. Environmental concerns and sustainability will become pivotal, prompting brands to explore carbon-neutral farming, powdered formulas, and even lab-grown milk. Additionally, consumer values will shift towards premium, specialty milks that align with personal health and sustainability ideals.
Generational differences also play a significant role, with older consumers favouring functional and familiar products, and younger demographics seeking novel flavours and health benefits. The versatility of both dairy and non-dairy milk across various applications further enhances their appeal, with innovative marketing strategies targeted at diverse consumer segments, including children
US Milk Industry – Important Statistics
- Consumer Attitudes in the US Milk Market: Health is a priority for consumers and 47% of buyers in the US purchase reduced fat milk.
- Sustainability in the Dairy Milk Market US: Dairy milk launches in the US with “natural” claims increased by 40%.
US Milk and Non-Dairy Milk Market Report – What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analyzed in this Report
- Analysis of the US milk and non-dairy milk market size and forecasts.
- US milk market segmentation and share of leading brands.
- Consumer preferences, attitudes (such as sustainability concerns), and behaviours, as well as generational influences.
- Milk and non-dairy milk market innovation, trends, and marketing strategies.
- Milk and non-dairy milk market growth opportunities.
Report Scope
The scope of this report includes both the dairy and non-dairy milk markets. Each market has its own market size and forecast.
The dairy milk market size includes:
- Refrigerated dairy milks (skim/low-fat milk, whole milk, flavoured milk)
- Shelf-stable RTD milk (unrefrigerated dairy milk)
The non-dairy market size includes:
- Almond milk
- Coconut milk
- Soy milk
- Oat milk
- Other non-dairy milk (cashew milk)
- Shelf-stable (RTD non-dairy milk)
Cream, creamers, condensed/evaporated milk, and powdered milk are excluded from the dairy milk market size.
Non-dairy cream and creamers are excluded from the non-dairy milk market size.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Julia Mills, Food & Drink Analyst at Mintel. Julia joined Mintel as a Food & Drink Analyst in 2023 after spending two years working in the Food & CPG industry. Prior to Mintel, she analysed trends and insights in both the food distribution and market research space. She holds a BA in Food & Consumer Packaged Goods Marketing from Western Michigan University.
US consumers seek the best of both worlds: dairy and non-dairy milk. To appeal to consumers, foster brand trust and engagement by embracing authenticity and inherent health benefits.
Julia Mills
Analyst – Food & Drink
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Executive Summary
- What you need to know
- Dairy milk experiences little change
- Non-dairy milk makes slow gains
- Market predictions
- What consumers want & why
- Opportunities
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Market Dynamics
- Market context
- Market drivers
- Key factors affecting milk
- Raw milk is having a moment
- “Weatherproofing” milk for the future
- Expected rise in consumer sentiment may increase appeal of premium milk option
- Graph 1: consumer sentiment index, 2021-24
- If it’s not quite milk… it’s not quite right
- Market size and forecast of dairy milk
- Dairy milk is here to stay
- Dairy milk experiences flat growth
- Dairy milk sales anticipated to reach $19bn in 2029
- Market size and forecast of non-dairy milk
- Non-dairy milk remains a popular alternative or complement to dairy milk
- After high non-dairy growth, sales are expected to level
- Projected growth of non-dairy milk market to reach $4.1bn by 2029
- Market segmentation of non-dairy milk
- Coconut and “other” non-dairy drinks experience highest average growth from 2024-29
- Graph 2: total retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2019-29
- Soy milk sales stagnate amid growth in other segments
- Market share/brand share
- Demand grows for dairy milk that can bring “more to the table”
- Graph 3: market share of milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
- Hood and Fairlife experience above-average growth
- Specialty non-dairy brands are small, but mighty
- Graph 4: market share of non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
- Oatly, Califia, and “others” expand as the category sees an overall decline
- The simpler, the better in almond milk
- Graph 5: market share of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
- Almond milk sales down 9% from last year
- Coconut milk’s versatility gives the segment a boost
- Graph 6: market share of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
- Coconut milk sales experience a 20% lift in sales
- Silk holds over 75% of soy milk share
- Graph 7: market share of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
- Soy milk sales remain unchanged
- Oat milk consumers show loyalty to leading brands
- Graph 8: market share of oat milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
- Top brands see growth amidst a slight category decline
- Growing interest in alternative non-dairy milks boosts brand growth in the segment
- Graph 9: market share of other non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, 2024
- Other non-dairy milk segment experiences second-highest growth following coconut milk
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Consumer Insights
- Consumer fast facts
- Purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk
- What you need to know:
- Inverse trends persist in dairy and non-dairy milk purchase
- Graph 10: purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, 2022-24
- Consumers are non-monogamous in their milk purchases
- Graph 11: purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, 2024
- Preference shifts encourage variety in milk choice
- Graph 12: purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, 2023-24
- Baby Boomers have an unbreakable bond with dairy milk…
- Graph 13: purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, by generation, 2024
- …while younger consumers are more inclusive in their choices
- Graph 14: purchase dairy and non-dairy milk, by generation, 2024
- Shifting parental ideologies allow non-dairy milk to coexist with dairy
- Graph 15: purchase of dairy and non-dairy milk, by parental status, 2024
- Types of dairy milk consumed
- What you need to know:
- Specialty milks gain momentum with shifts in consumer values
- Graph 16: types of dairy milk purchased, 2023-24
- Younger consumers “churn” towards natural and nutritious dairy
- Graph 17: types of dairy milk purchased, by generation, 2024
- Build trust with parents through transparent sourcing and health benefits
- Graph 18: types of dairy milk purchased, by parental status, 2024
- Value shines in the intersection of price and added benefits
- Graph 19: types of dairy milk purchased, by household income, 2024
- Frequency of dairy milk consumption
- What you need to know:
- Dairy milk is a daily essential for nearly 40% of its consumers
- Graph 20: frequency of dairy milk consumption, 2024
- Millennials lead the way in daily dairy milk consumption
- Graph 21: frequency of dairy milk consumption, by generation, 2024
- Boost dairy milk consumption beyond parenting circles
- Graph 22: frequency of dairy milk consumption, by parental status, 2024
- Frequency of non-dairy milk consumption
- What you need to know:
- Unlock daily potential of non-dairy milk
- Graph 23: frequency of non-dairy milk consumption, 2024
- Even Gen Z could use some inspo for non-dairy use
- Graph 24: frequency of non-dairy milk consumption, by generation, 2024
- Explore tactics to promote daily engagement among parents
- Graph 25: frequency of non-dairy milk consumption, by parental status, 2024
- Factors of importance in dairy milk purchase
- What you need to know:
- Value in dairy milk extends beyond its price tag
- Graph 26: factors of importance when purchasing dairy milk, 2024
- Balance health, wellness, and sustainability with practicality for broad appeal
- Graph 27: factors of importance when purchasing dairy milk, by generation, 2024
- Smaller households seek functionality and versatility
- Graph 28: factors of importance when purchasing dairy milk, by household size, 2024
- Factors of importance in non-dairy milk purchase
- What you need to know:
- Sustain engagement by prioritizing flavor and nutrition
- Graph 29: factors of importance when purchasing non-dairy milk, 2024
- Generational comfortability with non-dairy milk influences purchase factors
- Graph 30: factors of importance when purchasing non-dairy milk, by age and household income, 2024
- Young, affluent consumers have more breathing room to base purchase on more than functionality
- Graph 31: factors of importance when choosing non-dairy milk, by age and income, 2024
- Milk vs non-dairy milk
- What you need to know:
- Consumers find space in their fridge for both dairy and non-dairy milk
- Graph 32: frequency of purchase by milk type, 2024
- Dairy milk wins with its familiarity and OG flavor
- Graph 33: reasons for primarily purchasing dairy milk over non-dairy milk, 2024
- There’s room for non-dairy brands to enhance attractiveness
- Graph 34: reasons for purchasing non-dairy milk over dairy, 2024
- Dairy milk maintains popularity among Gen Z despite non-dairy growth
- Graph 35: frequency of purchase by milk type, by generation, 2024
- Maximize dairy’s appeal in “natural-seeking” younger consumers
- Graph 36: reasons for primarily purchasing dairy milk over non-dairy milk, by generation, 2024
- Embrace unique strengths of non-dairy milk to appeal across generations
- Graph 37: reasons for primarily purchasing non-dairy milk over dairy milk, by generation, 2024
- Characteristics associated with milk varieties
- Capitalize on dairy milk’s positive features
- Graph 38: characteristics associated with dairy milk, 2024
- Non-dairy milk struggles to form an identity linked to positive characteristics
- Graph 39: characteristics associated with non-dairy milks, 2024
- Unflavored dairy milk has a difficult time resonating with Gen Z
- Graph 40: characteristics associated with unflavored dairy milk, by generation, 2024
- Younger consumers are more skeptical of milk’s health benefits and processing
- Graph 41: milk associated with “health,” by generation, 2024
- Graph 42: milks associated with “highly processed,” by generation, 2024
- Gen Z and Millennials embrace flexible uses of milk
- Graph 43: milk types associated with “versatile,” by generation, 2024
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Innovation and Marketing Trends
- Launch activity and innovation
- Dairy milk
- Growing environmental concerns fuel sustainable innovation in dairy milk
- Brands keep dairy milk in the consideration set for ethically-minded consumers
- Smaller, snack-forward packaging expands milk occasions
- Graph 44: purchase intent of Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes Cereal Flavored Milk vs other flavored milk, 2017-24
- Brands reformulate for “discomfort-free” milk
- Full fat is back, baby!
- Non-dairy milk
- Packaging goes small, but flavor goes big
- Specially-formulated non-dairy milks meet personalized needs
- Strategically mixed ingredients give non-dairy milk a glow up
- Protein-forward non-dairy milk flexes its muscles with strong growth
- Graph 45: dairy alternatives launches, by share of select plus claims, 2019-24
- Marketing and advertising
- Dairy milk
- Dairy milk: the OG superfood
- Authenticity in dairy milk marketing “keeps it real”
- Decode the lingo on specialty milks
- Non-dairy milk
- Non-dairy milk can get the job done
- Brands demonstrate that non-dairy milk can support a diverse audience
- Kids become the focal point of non-dairy brands’ strategies
- Opportunities
- Dairy milk
- Become the solution, not the problem
- Extend sustainability and ethical initiatives beyond “grass-fed” and “organic”
- Build trust with younger dairy milk consumers through transparency
- Non-dairy milk
- There’s room for two
- Strip the ingredient list down
- Sometimes less is better
- Graph 46: performance of Mooala Simple Almond Milk vs other plant based drinks, 2017-24
- Graph 47: [no title]
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Appendix
- Market definition
- Market size methodology
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- The market
- Total retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Average annual household spending on dairy milk
- Total retail sales of dairy milk, by channel
- Total retail sales of dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2022 and 2024
- Supermarket sales of dairy milk
- Sales of dairy milk through other retail channels
- Total retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment
- Total retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of oat milk, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of oat milk, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy drinks, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Average annual household spending on non-dairy milk
- Total retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2022 and 2024
- Total retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel
- Total retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2022 and 2024
- Supermarket sales of non-dairy milk
- Sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels
- Sales of dairy milk, by company
- Sales of non-dairy milk, by company
- Sales of almond milk, by company
- Sales of coconut milk, by company
- Sales of soy milk, by company
- Sales of oat milk, by company
- Sales of other non-dairy drinks, by company
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