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- Mapping out the consumer journey for packaged sweets
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size & forecast of prepared cakes and pies
- Market predictions of future opportunities and challenges
- What consumers want & why
- Opportunities
- Simple preparation methods can elevate pre-made baked goods
- Transform packaged sweets into an interactive experience
- Graph 1: [no title]
- Shrink sweets to capitalize on “little treat culture” and snacking
- Tailor to daily snacking occasions
- Innovation doesn’t have to go too far outside the box
- Connect the past with the present through “newstalgia”
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MARKET DYNAMICS
- Market context
- Market drivers
- Consumers’ finances improve, but they’re not in the clear yet…
- Graph 2: change in financial situation over the past 12 months, 2023 and 2024
- …keeping the “little treat” culture alive
- “Three square meals a day” is a waning tradition
- Graph 3: changes in snacking frequency in the past year, 2025
- Ready-made cakes, pies, and pastries satisfy key snack needs
- Graph 4: important snack considerations, 2024
- Concerns over ultra-processing create challenges for center store
- Utilize on-pack messaging to improve natural perceptions
- Graph 5: unprocessed/minimally processed, 2023
- Young adults make space for processed foods in a balanced diet
- Graph 6: agreement with the statement, “a healthy diet can include some processed foods in moderation,” by age, 2024
- Declining household sizes presents new needs and preferences
- Graph 7: households, by number of members, 2011 and 2021
- Market size and forecast
- Demand for convenience and indulgence keeps sales steady
- Prepared cakes and pies expected to see slight growth
- Retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes, pies, and pastries
- Market segmentation
- Shelf-stable baked goods dominate share, meeting core needs like convenience
- All segments forecasted to make gains, albeit unremarkable
- Graph 8: total retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes, pies, and pastries, by segment, at current prices, 2019-29
- Retail sales of prepared cakes, pies, and pastries, by segment
- Market and brand share
- Private labels thrive with demand for budget-friendly options
- Graph 9: market share of prepared cakes, pies and pastries, 2025
- Half of leading companies perform below average
- Versatility, quality messaging, and global flavors set frozen baked goods apart
- Graph 10: market share of frozen cake, pies and pastries, 2025
- Private labels and Marie Callender’s maintain sales and market share
- Private label takes the cake in refrigerated baked goods
- Graph 11: market share of refrigerated cakes, pies and pastries, 2025
- Branded bakery products deliver convenience and freshness
- Shelf-stable brands with cultural and pop culture appeal succeed despite overall declines
- Graph 12: market share of shelf-stable cakes, pies and pastries, 2025
- Leading brands like Hostess, Tastykake, and Entenmann’s see decline in sales and market share
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer fast facts
- Types of sweet baked goods consumed
- What you need to know
- The future looks sweet for prepared cakes, pies, and pastries
- Graph 13: types of sweet baked goods consumed, 2021 & 2025
- Pre-made sweet baked goods check all the boxes for younger consumers
- Graph 14: types of sweet baked goods consumed, by generation, 2025
- Ready-made solutions meet parents’ dual needs
- Graph 15: types of sweet baked goods consumed, by parental status, 2025
- Keep frozen and refrigerated baked goods in the consideration set, even during tough financial times
- Graph 16: types of sweet baked goods consumed, by financial situation, 2025
- Deliver value to consumers with strategic packaging and formats
- Types of pre-made sweet baked goods consumed
- What you need to know
- Overlap of versatility and suitability for snacking influence top preferences
- Graph 17: types of pre-made sweet baked goods consumed, 2021 & 2025
- Smaller baked goods fill bigger needs for Gen Zs and Millennials
- Graph 18: types of pre-made sweet baked goods consumed, by generation, 2025
- Diversity is mirrored in pre-made baked good consumption
- Graph 19: types of pre-made sweet baked goods consumed, by race/ethnicity, 2025
- Frequency of pre-made sweet baked goods
- What you need to know
- Hone in on packaging and ingredients to stretch occasions
- Hone in on packaging and ingredients to extend uses and occasions
- Graph 20: frequency of pre-made sweet baked good consumption, 2025
- Few consumers rely on premade baked goods in daily routines
- Graph 21: frequency of pre-made sweet baked good consumption, by type of pre-made sweet baked goods consumed, 2025
- Frequency of sweet baked good consumption among young consumers falls below expectations
- Graph 22: frequency of pre-made sweet baked good consumption, by generation, 2025
- Limited baking skills and an acceptance of processed foods drive male consumers toward pre-made baked goods
- Graph 23: frequency of pre-made sweet baked good consumption, by gender, 2025
- Flexibility of pre-made baked goods aligns with dynamic work schedules
- Graph 24: frequency of pre-made sweet baked good consumption, by work from home status, 2025
- Reasons for buying pre-made sweet baked goods
- What you need to know
- Prepared baked goods satisfy consumers’ sweet tooth
- Graph 25: reasons for buying pre-made sweet baked goods, 2025
- Younger consumers’ motivations of prepared baked good purchase are more fluid
- Graph 26: reasons for buying pre-made sweet baked goods, by generation, 2025
- Financial challenges drive interest in pre-made baked goods for emotional and practical reasons
- Graph 27: reasons for buying pre-made sweet baked goods, by financial situation, 2025
- Motivation for pre-made sweet baked goods trial
- What you need to know
- Mix fun with functionality for the perfect recipe for innovation
- Graph 28: motivations for pre-made sweet baked good trial, 2025
- Offerings on two ends of the spectrum – indulgence and BFY – meet dual preferences
- Graph 29: motivations for pre-made sweet baked good trial, by generation, 2025
- Households with children require more expansive considerations
- Graph 30: motivations for pre-made sweet baked good trial, by parental status, 2025
- Seasonal flavors and LTOs turn pre-made baked goods into a justifiable treat
- Graph 31: motivations for pre-made sweet baked good trial, by financial situation, 2025
- Pre-made sweet baked goods occasions
- What you need to know
- Lead consumers into new occasions from morning until night
- Graph 32: pre-made sweet baked goods occasions, 2025
- Younger consumers have more-casual relationships with pre-made baked goods, from shelf-stable…
- Graph 33: shelf-stable pre-made sweet baked goods occasions, by generation, 2025
- …to frozen…
- Graph 34: frozen pre-made sweet baked goods occasions, by generation, 2025
- …and refrigerated
- Graph 35: refrigerated pre-made sweet baked goods occasions, by generation, 2025
- Male consumers integrate prepared baked goods from an early start
- Graph 36: shelf-stable pre-made sweet baked goods occasions, by gender, 2025
- Attributes associated with baked goods from different sources
- What you need to know
- Prepared baked goods underperform in perceptions across the board
- Graph 37: attributes associated with sweet baked goods from different sources, 2025
- Younger consumers have diverging views of pre-made baked goods, having favorable perceptions of some factors…
- Graph 38: bakeries from various sources perceived as fresh, by generation, 2025
- Graph 39: bakeries from various sources perceived as high-quality, by generation, 2025
- …and negative views on others
- Graph 40: bakeries from various sources perceived as processed, by generation, 2025
- Graph 41: bakeries from various sources perceived as convenient, by generation, 2025
- Women are skeptical of pre-made baked goods’ quality
- Graph 42: bakeries from various sources perceived as high-quality, by gender, 2025
- Pre-made baked goods: practicality meets economy
- Graph 43: bakeries from various sources perceived as good-value, by financial situation, 2025
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
- Launch activity and innovation
- Brands turn prepared baked goods into an entry point for global flavor exploration
- Interest in dessert flavors ranges from familar classics…
- Graph 44: experience with or interest in flavors or ingredients in desserts or confections, 2024
- …to those with a global flair
- Graph 45: experience with or interest in flavors or ingredients in desserts or confections, 2024
- Prepared sweet baked goods get a “healthy-ish” makeover
- Highlighting BFY ingredients encourages permissibility across occasions
- Graph 46: [no title]
- Brands marry beloved flavors across categories…
- Graph 47: purchase intent of Krispy Kreme Kit Kat Doughnuts vs other cakes, pastries & sweet goods, 2017-24
- …into prepared sweet baked goods
- Graph 48: [no title]
- Marketing and advertising
- Brands spark innovative ideas for using prepared baked goods
- Hostess Twinkies goes undercover
- Better Bites embraces inclusivity in its marketing
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APPENDIX
- Market definition
- Market Size Methodology
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Generations
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- Data
- Total retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes, pies, and pastries, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Average annual household spending on prepared cakes, pies, and pastries
- Total retail sales of prepared cakes, pies, and pastries, by segment
- Total retail sales and forecast of frozen cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of frozen cakes, pies and pastries, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Value, average price and volume of multi-outlet frozen cakes, pies and pastries sales
- Total retail sales and forecast of refrigerated cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of refrigerated cakes, pies and pastries, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Value, average price and volume of multi-outlet refrigerated cakes, pies and pastries sales
- Total retail sales and forecast of shelf stable cakes, pies and pastries, at current prices
- Total retail sales and forecast of shelf stable cakes, pies and pastries, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Value, average price and volume of multi-outlet shelf stable cakes, pies and pastries sales
- Total retail sales of prepared cakes, pies, and pastries, by channel
- Supermarket sales of prepared cakes, pies, and pastries
- Sales of prepared cake and pies through other retail channels
US Prepared Cakes and Pies Market Analysis
The US prepared cakes and pies market has grown steadily from 2019 to 2025, driven by convenience and snacking trends in the broader baked goods market.
Shelf-stable products lead the market, with frozen and refrigerated segments smaller but valued for freshness. Private labels hold nearly 40% market share, showing strong consumer demand for value, while established brands in the cake market and pies market must innovate to stay competitive. Growth is supported by changing snacking habits, demographic shifts, and innovation in packaging and flavors within the sweet baked goods market.
US Prepared Cakes and Pies Market Consumer Trends
Consumer trends in the prepared cakes and pies market highlight a strong preference among Gen Z and Millennials for convenient, ready-made sweet baked goods that fit their snacking lifestyles. These younger consumers, along with busy parents, favor single-serve and portion-controlled options that offer indulgence without compromising on time or effort. The growing “little treat” culture encourages frequent, affordable indulgences, while concerns about health and ultra-processed foods push demand for simpler ingredients and transparent labeling. Financially constrained consumers tend to choose value-driven, shelf-stable products with longer shelf life. Additionally, nostalgia with a modern twist—through retro packaging and new flavors—resonates well, helping brands in the US prepared cake and pies market connect emotionally while meeting evolving taste and convenience needs.
Purchasing the US Prepared Cakes and Pies Market Report 2025 offers key insights into consumer trends and market dynamics in the packaged baked goods sector. This prepared cake and pies market report helps manufacturers and marketers optimize product and marketing strategies by understanding changing snacking habits, health concerns, and competitive landscape, enabling them to better serve consumer needs and grow the sweet baked goods market.
About The Report
The US Prepared Cakes and Pies Market Report 2025 delivers comprehensive insights into consumer behavior, market size, segmentation, and the competitive landscape of the prepared cake and pies market. It explores key trends such as convenience-driven snacking, health perceptions, flavor innovations, and packaging preferences. The research draws on data from nationwide consumer surveys, retail sales analysis, and industry sources to provide a detailed understanding of packaged baked goods market dynamics across shelf-stable, frozen, and refrigerated segments. Manufacturers, retailers, marketers, and product developers will benefit from this report by gaining actionable intelligence to inform product innovation, marketing strategies, and growth opportunities in the evolving sweet baked goods market.
Key Topics Analyzed in the Report
- Types of sweet baked goods consumed
- Types of pre-made sweet baked goods consumed
- Frequency of pre-made sweet baked goods consumption
- Reasons for buying pre-made sweet baked goods
- Motivation for pre-made sweet baked goods trial
- Pre-made sweet baked goods occasions
- Attributes associated with baked goods from different places
- Innovation, marketing, and opportunities for pre-made sweet baked goods
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Julia Mills. Julia joined Mintel as a Food & Drink Analyst in 2023 after spending two years working in the Food & CPG industry. Prior to Mintel, she analyzed trends & insights in both the food distribution and market research space. She holds a BA in Food & Consumer Package Goods Marketing from Western Michigan University.
Download Report SummaryBusy lifestyles form the perfect recipe for packaged baked goods to rise. Focus on a mix of versatility, ease, and indulgence to blend seamlessly into routines.
Julia Mills
Food & Drink Analyst
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