US Retail’s Big Three: The Target Effect

Mass merchandisers, such as Target, remain a key staple in consumers’ shopping ecosystem; Mintel predicts the market will reach approximately $793B in sales in 2026. Mass merchandisers offer products across a wide range of categories, making them a one-stop shop option for consumers, thus creating repeat customers and ongoing loyalty. Beyond the wide assortment of products, Target has been focused on reestablishing itself in the category, particularly through a focus on fun, families and wellness – is its best bet at seeing growth after several tough years.

Furthermore, a tech reset is rapidly reshaping retail’s landscape, pushing Target to rethink how it uses its stores and digital footprint. Stores are morphing into omnichannel fulfillment hubs and experience-driven media spaces. In addition to attempting to keep up with its major competitors such as Amazon, Walmart and club stores – another major threat for Target is failing to keep up with consumer expectations for seamless, convenient, tech-enabled shopping: what was once a premium is now price-of-entry.

That said, given its primary shopper audience, key opportunities for Target lie in rebuilding trust through local and exclusive curation, a focus on families and a deeper commitment to wellness. After its DEI pullback, many consumers want to see Target do more for its local communities and for consumers across backgrounds. Leaning into these pillars will help Target stake out an authentic role in the community and regain competitive differentiation.

This Report Looks at the Following Areas:

• Economic conditions impacting consumers’ shopping at mass merchandisers
• Perceptions of the Big Three Retailers: Amazon, Walmart and Target
• The Target-primary shopper profile
• Factors influencing Target-primary shoppers’ behaviors
• Categories consumers prefer to shop at Target
• How to optimize the shopping experience at Target
• Identifying opportunity to improve Target Circle 360
• What’s winning at Target

Market Definitions

Mintel has defined a mass merchandiser as a large retail store offering a wide range of product categories, often at discounted prices, including but not limited to appliances; clothing and accessories; footwear; furniture; office equipment; household products; health, beauty and personal care products; electronics; music and entertainment; sporting goods; food and beverages. These stores have central customer checkout areas, generally located in the front of the store, and may have additional cash registers located in one or more individual departments.

Market size figures are based on sales data from Target’s annual reports.

Merchandise sales represent the vast majority of Target revenues, and are defined below:

Apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories and shoes. Skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant and shaving products. Dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce and food service (primarily Starbucks) in our stores. Electronics, including video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment and luggage. Bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement and seasonal merchandise. Household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear and pet supplies.

Market Size and Forecast: Mintel’s estimate of total revenues. Mintel’s methodology incorporates data from the US Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Surveys; company annual reports; and other sources appropriate to the report.