Retail trends in 2025 reflect a landscape shaped by economic caution, technological innovation and evolving consumer priorities. The industry is stable, with sales expected to grow more than 2%. Consumers…
US
Retail
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US Retail Trends Report 2025
"The US retail and ecommerce landscape in 2025 is strong and set for continued evolution in key areas such as tech, personalization and emerging forms of commerce."
US retail industry trends in 2025 reflect a landscape shaped by economic caution, technological innovation and evolving consumer priorities. The industry is stable, with sales expected to grow more than 2%. Consumers are balancing affordability and indulgence, splurging on small luxuries like dining experiences or beauty products while staying mindful of prices.
Emotional value is becoming more important, with brands building trust and personal connections alongside meeting expectations for the “basics” like price, selection and service. Loyalty programs are becoming more experiential, emphasizing personalized rewards and literal experiences.
Mobile technology continues to be a central part of retail tech innovation in general, with retailers focused on seamless integration across platforms. AI is continuing to play a crucial role in enhancing personalization and streamlining operations, with consumers warming up to its benefits. Quick commerce is expanding to meet demand for speed and convenience, while a continuing interest in sustainability keeps the circular economy thriving.
About the Report
This report covers 10 key trends in US retail and commerce from Mintel’s perspective. The trends mentioned are not confined to 2025, and are expected to evolve for years to come.
This report covers key trends in retail, inclusive of ecommerce, as well as the macroeconomic and other external factors impacting the industry. Consumer attitudes toward shopping, shopping behaviors and retailer/brand opportunities are discussed.
The Market: Mintel’s estimate and forecast of total retail sales and ecommerce sales. Mintel’s methodology incorporates data from the US Census Bureau’s Annual and Monthly Retail Trade Surveys and the Quarterly Ecommerce estimates.
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through Kantar Profiles to explore consumer attitudes and behaviors toward shopping. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in December 2024 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Industry snapshot: total US retail market poised for slow-yet-stable growth
Predicting how market dynamics will impact retail
Households’ outlooks on their personal finances remains bullish
Graph 1: opinions on financial future, 2024
Graph 2: income growth in the past 12 months, by financial outlook, 2024
2025 Retail Trend Overview
2025 Retail Trends
Key consumer findings
Key consumer findings, continued
Key opportunities for retailers and brands
SETTING THE STAGE: MARKET OVERVIEW
Market predictions
Total US retail market size & forecast
Total US ecommerce market size & forecast
Predicting how market dynamics will impact retail
Predicting how market dynamics will impact retail, continued
Monitoring: the impact of tariffs
Monitoring: additional potential supply chain and cost implication challenges
SETTING THE STAGE: WHAT’S NOT A TREND?
“Omnichannel evolution” is not a trend; it’s a reality
Hybrid shoppers are the norm for nearly all categories
Graph 3: intended shopping method in 2025, by category
2025 RETAIL TRENDS
Affordable indulgence? Yes, please.
Inflation is better, but remains on the ‘worry’ list; consumers will continue to be cautious with spending
Graph 4: inflation behaviors, past two months, 2024
Indeed, discretionary categories have been pushed down as consumers prioritized essentials
Graph 5: categories shopped, past 12 months, 2024
Consumers to embrace affordable luxuries and shift priorities slightly in 2025
Spending priorities are shifting to allow more indulgence, which can be little treats or bigger necessities
Graph 6: 2025 spending priorities compared to 2024
Activities involving socialization, entertainment and self and/or home improvement top the list of “wants”
Graph 7: priorities for discretionary money, 2024
Brands can demonstrate how consumers can enjoy affordable indulgences
The Walmart “Wirkin” is an example of an affordable, luxurious indulgence
Emergence of emotional value
Consumers’ definition of value is multidimensional
The ‘basics’ will still largely determine where consumers shop in 2025
That said, emotional value will grow in importance
Strong evidence to support the expansion of emotional value
Connection is even more important to Gen Zs and Millennials
Graph 8: attitudes related to emotional value, by generation, 2024
Graph 9: 2025 important retailer drivers, by generation, 2024
It all starts with trust
How do brands build trust to foster emotional connection? It can be a challenge for many to achieve
Consumers expect consistency, honesty and respect from brands
Graph 10: important factors that build trust in brands, 2024
Different consumer groups trust in different ways
Graph 11: important factors that build trust in brands, 2024
Consumers feel emotionally attached to brands whose values align with their own
Graph 12: attitudes related to company values, by generation, 2024
Brands can build emotional value in a number of ways
Loyalty programs become more experiential
Three truths about loyalty in retail today
Changing consumer perceptions of value are reshaping shopping habits, but right now, loyalty is primarily about price
Graph 13: types of retailers shopped past 12 months, 2024
Consumers are split when it comes to where they might place their loyalties in the future
Loyalty programs can stand out through quality, experiential perks
Sephora does ‘experiential’ right
Partnerships are already popping up in paid loyalty programs, with more to come
Lululemon just added Partner Perks to its free program
Gamification is one way brands are making deal-seeking more interactive and fun for their customers
Loyalty programs are versatile, offering brands the opportunity to incorporate engaging elements while reflecting their core values
Retailers could look to forge stronger connections with video content and/or entertainment properties
Starbucks Studios could play a role in its loyalty program
Mobile tech takes off
Mobile will dominate retail tech innovations as mobile sales drive ecommerce growth
Various tech types can be incorporated into the mobile experience
Graph 14: types of technology used while shopping, 2024
Gen X knows tech
Graph 15: types of tech used while shopping, by generation, 2024
Reminder: education comes first!
Tap on Phone tech is revolutionizing payments for retailers, especially small businesses and mobile vendors
Expect the rise of more mobile-friendly biometric authentication tools
Smart carts will continue to dot the retail landscape
Augmented reality will also play a more important role in the path to purchase
More AI (actual intel) about AI
More than 40% of consumers feel optimistic about AI’s influence on retail in 2025
Graph 16: optimism level about AI’s impact on retail, by gender and age, 2024
However, their optimism is grounded in a need for protection
Graph 17: attitudes toward AI in retail, 2024
Data privacy and security is a top concern among online shoppers and marketers will respond more judiciously in 2025
AI is driving transformation in retail – here are just a few key retailer use cases
AI is a broad concept with many applications; the future will entail more use cases that combine predictive and generative AI
As shoppers continue to experience the benefits, their confidence in AI’s potential to enhance retail will only grow
Quick commerce speeds up
The future of “quick commerce” will involve not only speed, but also sustainability and innovation
Quick commerce companies will need to innovate to stay relevant
Traditional retailers are facing a pivotal choice: partner with third-party companies to enhance delivery capabilities or compete on their own
Graph 18: intent to use on demand delivery services in 2025
Young men are a primary demographic for Q-commerce companies
Graph 19: intent to use on demand delivery services in 2025, by age and gender, household income, 2024
What’s Uber Eats up to?
What’s GrubHub up to?
What’s Instacart up to?
2025 still not “the” year for drones
Retail media networks rewrite marketing playbooks
Retail media networks are one of the hottest topics in retail: what’s the latest?
Newcomers keep popping up
More change is on the horizon for 2025
Expect to see more partnerships and innovations as competition intensifies
Consumers encounter RMNs through advertising
Consumers are generally optimistic about the advertising they see
Marketers should prioritize a consumer-centric approach when determining the best use of RMNs
Circular economy still spinning around
Sustainability remains a key area of interest for shoppers
This emphasis on sustainability will continue to drive growth in the circular economy
Innovations and corporate commitments will help boost circularity in the future
Brands can highlight the benefits of saving money and protecting the environment
Graph 20: attitudes toward benefits of buy pre-owned items, by generation and financial situation, 2024
Consumers trust established retailers and brands’ preowned offerings
Graph 21: attitudes toward retailers’ involvement in circular economy, by generation, 2024
Examples of circular efforts across retail
White space opportunity for retailers and brands to facilitate peer-to-peer commerce
Future opportunities also exist with repairs and rentals – education is key to driving adoption
Graph 22: attitudes toward repair services and rentals, by generation, 2024
Nuuly hits 200K subscribers, driving growth with everyday fashion rentals
DTC brands shift from hype to harmony
While DTC brands aren’t having the “moment” they once had, they aren’t dead; they’re evolving
What’s shifting with DTC retailing?
Unique offerings and a motivating brand story can drive sales of DTC brands
Graph 23: factors that would encourage DTC purchases, 2024
DTC brands need to give consumers reasons to buy: time and dollar savings, and community support are tangible reasons
Graph 24: attitudes toward DTC brands related to price and speed, by age and gender, 2024
Graph 25: attitudes toward DTC brands related to future success, by age and gender, 2024
Cuts Clothing builds community through membership program
The biggest DTC advocates are also the biggest pessimists
Graph 26: attitudes toward shopping for DTC brands, by gender and age, 2024
Dollar Shave Club is relaunching to revive its original fun, anti-establishment brand identity
Playing the social commerce long game
This won’t be the breakout year for social commerce, but it will be a year of meaningful progress and innovation
Consumers want to embrace shoppable posts, but are looking to brands for protection and reassurance
L’Oréal Paris partners with TikTok Shop for record-breaking Super Brand Day
Show, don’t tell – video strategies will evolve
In closing
Retail evolution will continue in 2025 and beyond
Related topics across Mintel Reports
APPENDIX
Report and market definition
Market context
Forecast methodology
Forecast fan chart methodology
Total retail sales and forecast, 2019-29
eCommerce sales and fan chart forecast, 2019-29
eCommerce sales and forecast, 2019-29
eCommerce comprises nearly one fifth of total retail sales
Graph 27: ecommerce share of total retail sales, 2019-29
Consumer research methodology
Consumer research questions
Consumer research questions, continued
Generations
Abbreviations and terms
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