Retail trends in 2025 reflect a landscape shaped by economic caution, technological innovation and evolving consumer priorities. The industry is stable, with sales expected to grow more than 2%. Consumers are balancing affordability and indulgence, splurging on small luxuries like dining experiences or beauty products while staying mindful of prices.
Emotional value is becoming more important, with brands building trust and personal connections alongside meeting expectations for the “basics” like price, selection and service. Loyalty programs are becoming more experiential, emphasizing personalized rewards and literal experiences. Mobile technology continues to be a central part of retail tech innovation in general, with retailers focused on seamless integration across platforms. AI is continuing to play a crucial role in enhancing personalization and streamlining operations, with consumers warming up to its benefits. Quick commerce is expanding to meet demand for speed and convenience, while a continuing interest in sustainability keeps the circular economy thriving.
This Report covers 10 key trends in US retail and commerce from Mintel’s perspective. The trends mentioned are not confined to 2025, and are expected to evolve for years to come.
The US retail and ecommerce landscape in 2025 is strong and set for continued evolution in key areas such as tech, personalization and emerging forms of commerce.
Diana Smith, Director, Client Advisor – Retail & eCommerce
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Industry snapshot: total US retail market poised for slow-yet-stable growth
- Predicting how market dynamics will impact retail
- Households’ outlooks on their personal finances remains bullish
- Graph 1: opinions on financial future, 2024
- Graph 2: income growth in the past 12 months, by financial outlook, 2024
- 2025 Retail Trend Overview
- 2025 Retail Trends
- Key consumer findings
- Key consumer findings, continued
- Key opportunities for retailers and brands
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SETTING THE STAGE: MARKET OVERVIEW
- Market predictions
- Total US retail market size & forecast
- Total US ecommerce market size & forecast
- Predicting how market dynamics will impact retail
- Predicting how market dynamics will impact retail, continued
- Monitoring: the impact of tariffs
- Monitoring: additional potential supply chain and cost implication challenges
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SETTING THE STAGE: WHAT’S NOT A TREND?
- “Omnichannel evolution” is not a trend; it’s a reality
- Hybrid shoppers are the norm for nearly all categories
- Graph 3: intended shopping method in 2025, by category
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2025 RETAIL TRENDS
- Affordable indulgence? Yes, please.
- Inflation is better, but remains on the ‘worry’ list; consumers will continue to be cautious with spending
- Graph 4: inflation behaviors, past two months, 2024
- Indeed, discretionary categories have been pushed down as consumers prioritized essentials
- Graph 5: categories shopped, past 12 months, 2024
- Consumers to embrace affordable luxuries and shift priorities slightly in 2025
- Spending priorities are shifting to allow more indulgence, which can be little treats or bigger necessities
- Graph 6: 2025 spending priorities compared to 2024
- Activities involving socialization, entertainment and self and/or home improvement top the list of “wants”
- Graph 7: priorities for discretionary money, 2024
- Brands can demonstrate how consumers can enjoy affordable indulgences
- The Walmart “Wirkin” is an example of an affordable, luxurious indulgence
- Emergence of emotional value
- Consumers’ definition of value is multidimensional
- The ‘basics’ will still largely determine where consumers shop in 2025
- That said, emotional value will grow in importance
- Strong evidence to support the expansion of emotional value
- Connection is even more important to Gen Zs and Millennials
- Graph 8: attitudes related to emotional value, by generation, 2024
- Graph 9: 2025 important retailer drivers, by generation, 2024
- It all starts with trust
- How do brands build trust to foster emotional connection? It can be a challenge for many to achieve
- Consumers expect consistency, honesty and respect from brands
- Graph 10: important factors that build trust in brands, 2024
- Different consumer groups trust in different ways
- Graph 11: important factors that build trust in brands, 2024
- Consumers feel emotionally attached to brands whose values align with their own
- Graph 12: attitudes related to company values, by generation, 2024
- Brands can build emotional value in a number of ways
- Loyalty programs become more experiential
- Three truths about loyalty in retail today
- Changing consumer perceptions of value are reshaping shopping habits, but right now, loyalty is primarily about price
- Graph 13: types of retailers shopped past 12 months, 2024
- Consumers are split when it comes to where they might place their loyalties in the future
- Loyalty programs can stand out through quality, experiential perks
- Sephora does ‘experiential’ right
- Partnerships are already popping up in paid loyalty programs, with more to come
- Lululemon just added Partner Perks to its free program
- Gamification is one way brands are making deal-seeking more interactive and fun for their customers
- Loyalty programs are versatile, offering brands the opportunity to incorporate engaging elements while reflecting their core values
- Retailers could look to forge stronger connections with video content and/or entertainment properties
- Starbucks Studios could play a role in its loyalty program
- Mobile tech takes off
- Mobile will dominate retail tech innovations as mobile sales drive ecommerce growth
- Various tech types can be incorporated into the mobile experience
- Graph 14: types of technology used while shopping, 2024
- Gen X knows tech
- Graph 15: types of tech used while shopping, by generation, 2024
- Reminder: education comes first!
- Tap on Phone tech is revolutionizing payments for retailers, especially small businesses and mobile vendors
- Expect the rise of more mobile-friendly biometric authentication tools
- Smart carts will continue to dot the retail landscape
- Augmented reality will also play a more important role in the path to purchase
- More AI (actual intel) about AI
- More than 40% of consumers feel optimistic about AI’s influence on retail in 2025
- Graph 16: optimism level about AI’s impact on retail, by gender and age, 2024
- However, their optimism is grounded in a need for protection
- Graph 17: attitudes toward AI in retail, 2024
- Data privacy and security is a top concern among online shoppers and marketers will respond more judiciously in 2025
- AI is driving transformation in retail – here are just a few key retailer use cases
- AI is a broad concept with many applications; the future will entail more use cases that combine predictive and generative AI
- As shoppers continue to experience the benefits, their confidence in AI’s potential to enhance retail will only grow
- Quick commerce speeds up
- The future of “quick commerce” will involve not only speed, but also sustainability and innovation
- Quick commerce companies will need to innovate to stay relevant
- Traditional retailers are facing a pivotal choice: partner with third-party companies to enhance delivery capabilities or compete on their own
- Graph 18: intent to use on demand delivery services in 2025
- Young men are a primary demographic for Q-commerce companies
- Graph 19: intent to use on demand delivery services in 2025, by age and gender, household income, 2024
- What’s Uber Eats up to?
- What’s GrubHub up to?
- What’s Instacart up to?
- 2025 still not “the” year for drones
- Retail media networks rewrite marketing playbooks
- Retail media networks are one of the hottest topics in retail: what’s the latest?
- Newcomers keep popping up
- More change is on the horizon for 2025
- Expect to see more partnerships and innovations as competition intensifies
- Consumers encounter RMNs through advertising
- Consumers are generally optimistic about the advertising they see
- Marketers should prioritize a consumer-centric approach when determining the best use of RMNs
- Circular economy still spinning around
- Sustainability remains a key area of interest for shoppers
- This emphasis on sustainability will continue to drive growth in the circular economy
- Innovations and corporate commitments will help boost circularity in the future
- Brands can highlight the benefits of saving money and protecting the environment
- Graph 20: attitudes toward benefits of buy pre-owned items, by generation and financial situation, 2024
- Consumers trust established retailers and brands’ preowned offerings
- Graph 21: attitudes toward retailers’ involvement in circular economy, by generation, 2024
- Examples of circular efforts across retail
- White space opportunity for retailers and brands to facilitate peer-to-peer commerce
- Future opportunities also exist with repairs and rentals – education is key to driving adoption
- Graph 22: attitudes toward repair services and rentals, by generation, 2024
- Nuuly hits 200K subscribers, driving growth with everyday fashion rentals
- DTC brands shift from hype to harmony
- While DTC brands aren’t having the “moment” they once had, they aren’t dead; they’re evolving
- What’s shifting with DTC retailing?
- Unique offerings and a motivating brand story can drive sales of DTC brands
- Graph 23: factors that would encourage DTC purchases, 2024
- DTC brands need to give consumers reasons to buy: time and dollar savings, and community support are tangible reasons
- Graph 24: attitudes toward DTC brands related to price and speed, by age and gender, 2024
- Graph 25: attitudes toward DTC brands related to future success, by age and gender, 2024
- Cuts Clothing builds community through membership program
- The biggest DTC advocates are also the biggest pessimists
- Graph 26: attitudes toward shopping for DTC brands, by gender and age, 2024
- Dollar Shave Club is relaunching to revive its original fun, anti-establishment brand identity
- Playing the social commerce long game
- This won’t be the breakout year for social commerce, but it will be a year of meaningful progress and innovation
- Consumers want to embrace shoppable posts, but are looking to brands for protection and reassurance
- L’Oréal Paris partners with TikTok Shop for record-breaking Super Brand Day
- Show, don’t tell – video strategies will evolve
- In closing
- Retail evolution will continue in 2025 and beyond
- Related topics across Mintel Reports
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APPENDIX
- Report and market definition
- Market context
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- Total retail sales and forecast, 2019-29
- eCommerce sales and fan chart forecast, 2019-29
- eCommerce sales and forecast, 2019-29
- eCommerce comprises nearly one fifth of total retail sales
- Graph 27: ecommerce share of total retail sales, 2019-29
- Consumer research methodology
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research questions, continued
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
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