2026
9
US Retail’s Big Three: The Walmart Effect 2026
2026-05-13T12:01:44+00:00
REPDDEC4312_3817_47A3_AC43_12381707A32E
3695
194977
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As one of the world's largest retail chains, Walmart is a go-to store for many shoppers. 72% of US consumers regularly shop at Walmart, partly driven by its commitment to…
US
Retail
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US Retail’s Big Three: The Walmart Effect 2026

As one of the world's largest retail chains, Walmart is a go-to store for many shoppers. 72% of US consumers regularly shop at Walmart, partly driven by its commitment to providing affordable options for everyday necessities.

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  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    • What you need to know
    • Outlook for Walmart
    • Opportunities
    • Turn frequent shoppers into Walmart+ subscribers
    • Upshift discretionary offerings
    • Health and wellness as the new aisle endcap
  2. THE MARKET

    • Category snapshot – market size and forecast
    • Walmart’s edge in an anxious economy
    • Balancing growth and regulatory scrutiny
    • America’s ageing population is pushing healthcare to the forefront of retail
    • Technology is redefining retail success
    • Mass merchandisers’ growth slows in the forecast period, even though it remains positive
    • Graph 1: total retail sales and forecast of mass merchandisers, at current prices, 2019-30
    • Market size and forecast of mass merchandisers
    • Walmart’s sales soar
    • Graph 2: Walmart net sales, FY 2019-25
    • Grocery is Walmart’s largest and strongest driver
    • Graph 3: Walmart net sales, by merchandise category, FY 2019-25
  3. THE CONSUMER

    • Retailer preference drivers and perceptions
    • Retail expectations are rising
    • Graph 4: important factors when choosing where to shop – very important, by age, 2026
    • Reimagining Walmart’s brand perception
    • Graph 5: retailer perceptions, 2026
    • Walmart is consistently focused on improving its brand perception
    • Walmart’s eco-friendly image can use a revamp
    • Walmart shopper profile
    • Walmart is a go-to destination for shoppers
    • Walmart-primary shoppers
    • Decoding Walmart’s strengths
    • Walmart’s omnichannel strength anchors its market position
    • Graph 6: retailers shopped, 2026
    • Walmart and Google team up to create seamless shopping experiences
    • Walmart’s winning in the essentials game
    • Graph 7: categories consumers prefer to shop at select retailers, 2026
    • Walmart announces “The Devil Wears Prada” themed clothing collection
    • Walmart+ performance and growth potential
    • Shoppers are mission driven, not exclusively brand loyal
    • Walmart+ is not a staple…yet
    • Graph 8: paid membership programs, 2026
    • Graph 9: attitudes toward Walmart+, 2026
    • The subscription fee is a deal breaker
    • Walmart should continue to emphasize perks and special pricing to drive Walmart+ membership
    • Show the money to Walmart+ members
    • Walmart+ is an everyday-savings ecosystem
    • Graph 10: awareness of Walmart+ benefits, 2026
    • From regular shoppers to subscribers
    • Graph 11: awareness of select Walmart+ benefits, by Walmart-primary shoppers, 2026
    • Lifestyle centric benefits capture the next generation of loyal consumers
    • Graph 12: membership benefits of interest, by age, 2026
    • Improving the Walmart experience
    • Small businesses, big impact
    • Walmart boosts small businesses through Open Call
    • Negative publicity can shape consumers’ choices
    • Digital tools can boost Walmart’s discretionary sales and appeal to younger consumers
    • Graph 13: interest in online shopping tools, by age, 2026
  4. INNOVATIONS AT WALMART

    • Walmart redesigns its flagship private label brand
    • Walmart ventures into health and wellness
    • Walmart continues to invest in its stores
    • What does this mean for the retail industry?
  5. APPENDIX

    • The market
    • Market definition
    • Forecast methodology
    • Forecast methodology – fan chart
    • Market size and forecast of mass merchandisers, at inflation-adjusted prices
    • Walmart net sales, by segment
    • The consumer
    • Consumer research questions
    • Consumer research methodology
    • US generation groups
    • Abbreviations
Download Report Summary

As one of the world’s largest retail chains, Walmart is a go-to store for many shoppers. 72% of US consumers regularly shop at Walmart, partly driven by its commitment to providing affordable options for everyday necessities. Since post-pandemic growth ended, Walmart is transitioning into a phase of share-steal competition driven by price sensitivity.

Walmart’s strategic expansions into tech through a Google Gemini deal and healthcare, with the launch of Better Care Services, showcase its transformation from a traditional retailer to a rich data hub.

Looking ahead, key demographic trends, such as an ageing population and a growing focus on health and wellness, will likely fuel Walmart’s continued investment in these areas. This presents a prime opportunity for Walmart to increase basket size and trip frequency by embedding accessible health solutions into routine retail missions, potentially heralding a new era where the health and retail sectors become increasingly intertwined.

This Report Looks at the Following Areas:

  • Economic uncertainty and price sensitivity favor Walmart’s positioning
  • How Walmart blurs the line between healthcare and retail
  • Technology for retail success
  • Walmart strengths and brand perceptions
  • Walmart+ adoption and opportunities for growth
  • How Walmart can improve its customer experience
  • Innovations at Walmart

Market Definitions

Mintel has defined a mass merchandiser as a large retail store offering a wide range of product categories, often at discounted prices, including but not limited to appliances; clothing and accessories; footwear; furniture; office equipment; household products; health, beauty and personal care products; electronics; music and entertainment; sporting goods; food and beverages. These stores have central customer checkout areas, generally located in the front of the store, and may have additional cash registers located in one or more individual departments.

Market size figures are based on sales data from Walmart’s annual reports.

Market size and forecast: Mintel’s estimate of total revenues. Mintel’s methodology incorporates data from the US Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Surveys; company annual reports; and other sources appropriate to the Report.

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