Stay ahead of the curve and secure future growth for your business with Mintel’s State of Retail and eCommerce Market Report. The report provides a data-led understanding of the current retail industry and opportunities for brands to appeal to US consumers.
Topics Analyzed
- Predictions for total retail sales and ecommerce, as well as influencing market factors.
- Consumers’ current spending priorities and the impact on shopping behaviors across categories.
- Where omnichannel retailing is headed.
- Factors that will shape retailers’ current and future successes, or struggles.
- What consumers consider in a total value proposition, besides price.
- Key components of experiential retailing, both in stores and online.
- How technology is shaping the future of retail and ecommerce.
The State of Retail and Ecommerce in the US
Nearly four years after the onset of the pandemic, the retail industry has stabilized and is now positioned from a place of strength. Inflation, having been the primary influencing factor last year, continues to pose a threat to retailers, as two thirds of consumers remain concerned about its lingering effects. Despite this concern, consumer confidence has rebounded alongside cooling inflation, indicating a readiness for what lies ahead in the industry.
Consumer perspective
The market has displayed resilience in the face of various challenges and is anticipated to achieve a sales gain of nearly 3% this year. Consumers’ value-centric mindset is expected to persist, with a broader definition of value taking shape – they are increasingly considering a retailer’s total value proposition beyond just prices. The top driver of retailer preference is high-quality products, with 67% of adults agreeing. Consumers are unwilling to compromise on quality to save money.
Opportunity for retailers
Looking ahead, retailers have significant opportunities to advance their operations by focusing on omnichannel strategies, potentially involving further digitization of the in-store experience; refining service components online; leveraging data, notably from artificial intelligence, to enhance hyperpersonalization; and optimizing fulfillment processes while exploring new revenue streams.
Readers may also be interested to view our US Winter Holiday Shopping Market Report.
Report Scope
This Report covers key trends in retail, inclusive of ecommerce, as well as the macroeconomic and other external factors impacting the industry. Consumer attitudes toward shopping, shopping behaviors and retailer/brand opportunities are discussed. This Report builds on the analysis from Mintel’s State of Retail & eCommerce – US, 2023.
The Market: based on US Census Bureau, Annual/Monthly Retail Trade Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; forecast developed by Mintel
Expert Analysis
Discover deep industry insights with our expert’s data-backed analysis of the retail industry, offered in this report.
All indications signal a post-pandemic resurgence, alleviating inflationary pressures and ushering in a year of exploration, discovery, and AI progress.
Diana Smith
Associate Director, Retail & eCommerce
Collapse All
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- Key issues covered in this Report
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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THE MARKET
- Market context
- Market drivers
- Graph 1: quarterly real GDP growth, 2020-23
- Graph 2: headline CPI, core CPI, and shelter CPI, 2021-24
- Graph 3: unemployment rate, 2019-23
- Graph 4: consumer sentiment index, 2021-24
- Graph 5: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, 2019-23
- Graph 6: opinions on financial future, 2024
- Graph 7: inflation behaviors, 2022 vs 2024
- Graph 8: consumer concerns, 2022 vs 2024
- Market size and forecast
- Graph 9: total retail sales growth versus ecommerce sales growth, 2019-28
- Graph 10: eCommerce share of total sales, 2018-28
- Graph 11: estimated quarterly retail ecommerce sales – percent change versus prior quarter and year, Q4 2022-Q4 2023
- Graph 12: percentage of total purchases made online, by generation, 2023
- Graph 13: devices used to shop online, by generation, 2023
- Segment performance
- Graph 14: estimated percentage change in sales for retail and food services, by type of business, 2023
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer fast facts
- Shopping approach by category
- Graph 15: products shopped, past 12 months, 2023
- Graph 16: spending habits, past 12 months, 2023
- Graph 17: discretionary spending priorities, 2023
- Graph 18: discretionary spending priorities – index vs all, by age, 2023
- Graph 19: spending behaviors in past two months, 2023 vs 2024
- Graph 20: multichannel shopping versus single-channel shopping, 2023
- Graph 21: method of shopping – search vs purchase, by channel, by item, 2023
- Graph 22: in-store buying, by category, current vs pre-pandemic, 2020 and 2023
- Graph 23: online buying, by category, current vs pre-pandemic, 2020 and 2023
- Preferred retailers
- Graph 24: retailers shopped – any shopping (net), 2023
- Graph 25: trip consolidation behavior, by age; household income, 2023
- Graph 26: retailers shopped, in-store vs online, 2023
- Graph 27: retailers shopped in-store, by generation, 2023
- Graph 28: retailers shopped online, by generation, 2023
- Graph 29: attitudes toward malls, by gender and age, 2023
- Graph 30: department store shoppers, by channel; by age and income, 2023
- Meaning of value
- Graph 31: retailer drivers, 2023
- Graph 32: aspects of quality, 2023
- Graph 33: value perceptions of retailers, 2023
- Omnichannel shopping behaviors
- Graph 34: use of pickup services, 2023
- Graph 35: use of pickup services, by gender and generation, 2023
- Graph 36: preferred communication methods for customer service, by gender and age, 2023
- Graph 37: mobile shopping while in stores, by generation, 2023
- Graph 38: mobile device actions while shopping at physical stores, 2023
- Experiential retailing
- Graph 39: favorite in-store shopping aspects, 2023
- Graph 40: favorite in-store shopping aspects, by Gen Z, 2023
- Graph 41: favorite in-store shopping aspects, by Baby Boomers, 2023
- Graph 42: favorite in-store shopping aspects, by gender, 2023
- Graph 43: noticeable store aspects – any rank, 2023
- Graph 44: noticeable store aspects, by gender and age, 2023
- Graph 45: behaviors/attitudes toward having real-time access to store inventory and traffic patterns, by age, 2023
- Graph 46: favorite online shopping aspects, 2023
- Graph 47: favorite online shopping aspects, by gender and age, 2023
- Graph 48: experience with digital-only offerings – NET, 2023
- Graph 49: experience with digital-only offerings, 2023
- Graph 50: interest in digital-only offerings (net), by gender and age, 2023
- Role of technology
- Graph 51: experience with tech at retail, 2023
- Graph 52: experience with tech at retail, by gender and age, 2023
- Graph 53: high AI understanding, by gender and age, 2023
- Graph 54: understanding of AI, 2023
- Graph 55: attitudes toward AI, by age, 2023
- Graph 56: top motivators for participating in a livestream event, 2024
- Graph 57: livestream interest/participation, 2024
- Evolving ways to shop
- Graph 58: digital ad influence – very much/somewhat, by gender and age, 2023
- Graph 59: digital ad influence*, 2023
- Graph 60: types of digital ads that influence purchase, 2023
- Graph 61: experience with circular shopping, 2023
- Graph 62: experience with circular shopping – any action/interest – NET, 2023
- Graph 63: interest in circular shopping, by key demographics, 2023
- Graph 64: attitude toward retailers offering preowned items, by key demographics, 2023
- Graph 65: experience with buying from social media platforms – NET, 2023
- Graph 66: experience with buying from social media platforms, 2023
- Graph 67: experience with buying directly from social media platforms, by generation, 2023
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OPPORTUNITIES
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APPENDIX
- Graph 68: online shopping frequency, 2022 vs 2023
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