2020
9
US The Future of Foodservice Market Report 2020
2020-12-22T03:01:41+00:00
OX987326
3695
129034
[{"name":"Foodservice","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/foodservice"}]
Report
en_GB
“The US foodservice industry saw unprecedented challenges in 2020 due to the pandemic and recession. These challenges will continue to plague restaurants in 2021, especially full-service ones, delaying a full…

US The Future of Foodservice Market Report 2020

£ 3,695 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of U.S Future of Foodservice: 2021 market including the behaviors, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Many Americans traded from restaurants to retailers for their food and beverage needs during the COVID-19 crisis; as the consequent recession continues, retailers remain a fierce competitor and barrier to restaurants’ recovery in 2021. Limited-service restaurants will recover much faster than their full-service counterparts due to their affordability and off-premise convenience. Restaurants of all types must find new and exciting ways to engage consumers at home and improve their value perceptions in 2021 in order to survive the rocky road to recovery.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our U.S Food and U.S Drinks market research.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the foodservice industry.
  • The recessionary impact on the foodservice industry.
  • Consumers’ attitudes toward dining out and foodservice in 2021.
  • How restaurants can survive another troubled year ahead with off-premise innovation.

Covered in this report

Definitions used: Quick service restaurants – Used interchangeably with “fast food,” QSRs specialize in inexpensive, convenient meals with no waiter service, no alcoholic beverages and a low price point. Examples include: McDonald’s, KFC, Taco Bell, Wendy’s and Pizza Hut.

Fast casual restaurants – These establishments are characterized by a higher price point than QSRs, though not as high as full-service restaurants. Fast casuals do not offer waiter service and may or may not serve alcohol. Examples include: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Panera Bread, Shake Shack and Blaze Pizza.

Limited-service restaurants – LSRs provide food services and customers usually select and order items and pay before dining. Food/drink may be consumed on the premises, offered as carryout or delivered to the customer’s location. These may also sell alcoholic beverages. LSRs include both QSRs and fast casual restaurants. The other category within LSRs (as seen in the Market Size and Forecast) includes snacks and non-alcoholic beverage bars, cafeterias, grills and grill buffets.

Full-service restaurants – FSRs have waiter/waitress service and customers order and are served while seated. These may also sell alcoholic beverages and offer carryout services. They include the restaurant segments: family midscale, casual dining and fine dining.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Jill Failla, a leading analyst in the Foodservice sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The US foodservice industry saw unprecedented challenges in 2020 due to the pandemic and recession. These challenges will continue to plague restaurants in 2021, especially full-service ones, delaying a full sales recovery until 2023. To survive the ongoing crisis, restaurants must become off-premise business experts, engaging consumers in new and exciting ways at home, all while making value a priority.

Jill Failla

Senior Foodservice Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Definition
    • COVID-19: foodservice industry market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 2: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2019-25
    • Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry
      • Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, December 2020
    • Opportunities and challenges
    • Americans don’t want to dine indoors anytime soon
      • Figure 4: Dine-in intentions, September 2020
    • Takeout and delivery frequency rises, is expected to continue into 2021
      • Figure 5: Restaurant ordering frequency, April 2020 and September 2020
    • Recession, COVID-19 exposure concerns spur far more plans to cook at home
      • Figure 6: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
    • Value proposition will be paramount in 2021
      • Figure 7: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
    • Engage consumers in new ways at home
      • Figure 8: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase and any interest, September 2020
  3. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • Foodservice falls behind during COVID-19 crisis
    • Economic downturn compounds foodservice struggles
    • Social unrest tops headlines, will spur restaurant policy changes
  4. Market Size and Forecast

    • Foodservice industry won’t recover until 2023
      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry
      • Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, December 2020
    • COVID-19: US context
  5. Market Breakdown

    • FSRs lose market share to LSRs as a result of pandemic
      • Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 13: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2019-25
  6. Market Factors

    • Grocery business booms, and retail foodservice threat grows
      • Figure 14: Prepared food purchasing frequency year over year, September 2020
    • Dining out will continue to suffer during economic downturn
      • Figure 15: Restaurant spending and financial situation, November 2020
      • Figure 16: US restaurant sales, at current prices, 2008-13
    • Most all Americans who WFH in 2020 expect to continue to in 2021
      • Figure 17: COVID-19 employment status, September 2020
      • Figure 18: Work expectations for 2021, September 2020
    • Indoor dining fears remain high heading into 2021
      • Figure 19: Comfort level dining inside a restaurant, July 15, 2020-November 9, 2020
    • US social injustice leads 2020 news
  7. Market Opportunities

    • Put value at the forefront
    • Invest in Black business partners, employees of color
    • Look close to home for menu innovation
      • Figure 20: Somekind Press promotes Los Angeles Sonoratown restaurant’s cookbook, November 2020
  8. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Improve off-premise with technology
    • Comfort consumers at home
    • Save the planet
  9. Competitive Strategies

    • The restaurant experience moves into the home
    • Ghost restaurants
    • Takeout/delivery-only storefronts and drive-thrus
    • At-home innovation
      • Figure 21: Chick-fil-A email, “New Chick-fil-A meal kits are here,” May 4, 2020
    • Robots reinvigorate restaurants
    • Comfort foods drive sales
      • Figure 22: Panera Bread’s Facebook ad, October 2020
    • Sustainability matters
  10. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • On-premise dining hits a wall
    • Deliver on different dayparts
    • Get creative at home
  11. Restaurant Visitation

    • Fast food recovers visitation faster than any other segment in 2020
      • Figure 23: Restaurant visitation, February-November 2020
  12. Restaurant Ordering Methods

    • Dine-in begins slow recovery in latter half of 2020
      • Figure 24: Restaurant ordering methods, July-November 2020
    • Boomers are returning to restaurant dining faster than younger consumers
      • Figure 25: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by generation, July-September 2020
    • Black Americans are not returning to dining at restaurants
      • Figure 26: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by race and Hispanic origin, July-September 2020
    • Consumers earning less than $50K in HH income are slow to return to dining
      • Figure 27: Restaurant ordering methods – Any dined at a restaurant NET, by household income, July-September 2020
  13. Dine-in Intentions

    • Most consumers who aren’t dining at restaurants don’t plan to anytime soon
      • Figure 28: Dine-in intentions, September 2020
    • Some young consumers aren’t dining at restaurants because they can’t
      • Figure 29: Dine-in intentions, by generation, September 2020
  14. Restaurant Ordering Frequency

    • Consumers increasingly rely on off-premise options in latter part of 2020
      • Figure 30: Restaurant ordering frequency, April 2020 and September 2020
  15. Foodservice Plans for 2021

    • Far more Americans plan on cooking at home in 2021 than in 2020
      • Figure 31: Foodservice plans for 2021, September 2020
    • Millennials will drive restaurant recovery in 2021
      • Figure 32: Foodservice plans for 2021, by generation, September 2020
  16. Dining Behaviors

    • Women typically make the household dining decisions
      • Figure 33: Dining behaviors, September 2020
    • Gen Zs want to support minority-owned restaurants in 2021
      • Figure 34: Dining behaviors, by generation, September 2020
    • White diners are most open to heated outdoor options in cold months
      • Figure 35: Dining behaviors, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
    • Low income is a barrier to supporting independent restaurants
      • Figure 36: Dining behaviors, by household income, September 2020
  17. Innovative Foodservice Concepts

    • Interest in restaurant meal kits remains high going into 2021
      • Figure 37: Innovative foodservice concepts, September 2020
      • Figure 38: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase and any interest, September 2020
    • Millennials crave catered celebrations
      • Figure 39: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase, by generation, September 2020
    • Boost restaurant sales among Black and Hispanic customers with personal care products
      • Figure 40: Innovative foodservice concepts – NET any purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
  18. Dining Attitudes

    • Two fifths of restaurant customers are concerned over employees’ safety
      • Figure 41: Dining attitudes, September 2020
    • Biggest delivery users may be more cautious of ghost restaurants
      • Figure 42: Dining attitudes, by gender, September 2020
    • Resuscitate lunch business with young consumers and delivery service
      • Figure 43: Dining attitudes, by generation, September 2020
    • Appeal to White diners with regionally inspired menu options
      • Figure 44: Dining attitudes, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
  19. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Forecast
    • Consumer survey data
    • Direct marketing creative
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
    • Terms
  20. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 46: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
  21. Appendix – The Consumer

      • Figure 48: Restaurant ordering methods, September 2020
      • Figure 49: Dine-in intentions, by household income, September 2020
      • Figure 50: COVID-19 behaviors, April 16, 2020-November 9, 2020

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