As in 2024, 84% of consumers plan to take a vacation in the coming year. While a steady share may be interpreted as stagnant growth, this high intent should be a comfort to the travel industry. After years of volatility from the pandemic and record inflation year-over-year stability means 2025 can be seen as the new benchmark in travel. That isn’t to say the industry isn’t growing. With 30.5% growth forecast over the next five years, the market for travel and tourism is expected to be worth nearly $900bn by 2029.
Among the four major travel segments, the Ardent Adventurers and Forethinking Forayers are driving these gains. Their motivations and attitudes toward vacations vary, which provide clues for travel brands to fulfill their needs. Moreover, their will to travel indicates that they’re going to travel – it’s just a question of which provider will get their dollars. Since 56% of travelers overall intend on spending more in 2025, it’s important to have a handle on these travel segments.
Reaching them, however, could be difficult. Some of the most active travelers have trouble trusting the information, leading them to look for expertise in addition to personalization. That personalization is being answered by many brands in the form of AI, but market forces and consumer sentiment may limit its effectiveness.
This report looks at the following areas:
- The market forces that will support (or hinder) travel’s current upward trajectory
- Motivations and barriers for choosing certain vacation types
- How household budgets fit into travelers’ plans for 2025
- Four segments of vacation planners, how they view travel, and what services and messaging will be best for reaching them
- What qualities vacationers associate different travel types
- Emerging destination trends and reasons for their appeal
- What brands are doing to attract travelers in 2025
- Digital marketing strategies of major industry players
- Predictions of how changes to social media platforms and AI integrations may play out in travel
- How Mintel Trends relevant to travel are playing out in the industry
Market Definitions
For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:
The travel and tourism market includes both leisure and business travel segments, including: traveler accommodations, domestic and international passenger air transportation services, deep-sea passenger water transportation services, scenic and sightseeing transportation services and travel agencies and tour operators.
Vacationer: an internet user aged 18+ who plans to take a leisure trip in 2025.
After several eventful years, the travel industry is now set to enjoy a sense of normal operation. Consumers are keen to spend on travel – even more than in 2024.
Mike Gallinari
Senior Travel & Leisure Analyst
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- What consumers want & why
- Opportunities
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MARKET DYNAMICS
- Market context
- The economy landed strongly in 2024, and hopes to continue its progress in 2025
- Market drivers
- Travel prices are poised to be more manageable in 2025
- TSA records banner year
- A strong dollar makes popular international destinations more attractive
- Graph 1: USD exchange rates against select currencies, 2020-24
- The intent to travel signals sustained demand in low-cost offerings
- Graph 2: vacation plans in the next 12 months, by financial self-assessment, 2024
- Travel’s long-term health will depend on navigating possible chaos in the short term
- Market size and forecast
- Travel and tourism will continue to grow as economic recovery continues
- Retail sales and forecast of travel and tourism
- Retail sales and forecast of travel and tourism, inflation-adjusted
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer fast facts
- Travel plans in 2025
- Leisure travel remains vibrant
- Travel is among the top spending goals among consumers
- Graph 3: top three financial goals for 2025 (rank), 2024
- Travel welcomes normalcy after years of complexity
- Graph 4: planned vacation types in the next 12 months, 2022-24
- Market the new and exotic to younger travelers
- Graph 5: Millennials’ planned vacation types in the next 12 months, 2023-24
- Vacationers will look for specific destinations, but can be open to alternatives
- Graph 6: planned vacation motivations, 2024
- Travel costs are generally paid by one party
- Travelers are financing their trips through credit…
- Graph 7: planned method of funding “main” upcoming trip, 2024
- …but generally when coupled with frequent travel
- Graph 8: planned method of funding “main” upcoming trip, by number of payment methods, 2024
- Discovery is fine; make booking more seamless
- Graph 9: expected areas of difficulty in planning “main” trip, 2024
- Market active vacations to a population intent on spending more
- Complex attitudes toward planning show it’s not just about booking quickly
- Graph 10: attitudes toward vacation planning – any agree, 2024
- Vacation planning segments
- Vacation Planning Segments
- Ardent Adventurers – 31% of vacation planners
- Ardent Adventurers demographic profile
- Potential Passengers- 25% of vacation planners
- Potential Passengers demographic profile
- Habitual Homebodies – 23% of vacation planners
- Habitual Homebodies demographic profile
- Forethinking Forayers – 21% of vacation planners
- Forethinking Forayers demographic profiles
- Appealing to Ardent Adventurers
- Ardent Adventurers demographic recap
- Ardent Adventurers are always thinking about the next trip
- Graph 11: planned vacation types in the next 12 months, by segment, 2024
- Remember the value of downtime to busy Adventurers
- Graph 12: vacation motivations, Ardent Adventurers segment vs all, 2024
- Financial services have opportunity to reach Adventurers, but must provide value
- Graph 13: planned method of funding “main” upcoming trip, Ardent Adventurers segment vs all, 2024
- Loyalty programs’ structure may be turning off some Ardent Adventurers
- A sea of questionable info, clunky booking vex Adventurers
- Graph 14: expected areas of difficulty in planning “main” trip, Ardent Adventurers segment vs all, 2024
- Give Adventurers a human connection to improve their planning journey
- Graph 15: attitudes toward travel planning – any agree, Ardent Adventurers segment, 2024
- Marry trendy vacations with the needs of Adventurers
- Graph 16: interest in vacation trends, Ardent Adventurers segment vs all, 2024
- Appealing to Potential Passengers
- Potential Passengers demographic recap
- Lay the groundwork for Potential Passengers now
- Graph 17: attitudes toward travel – net agree, Potential Passengers segment vs all, 2024
- Budget-conscious messaging can spur Passengers to expand their vacationing
- Graph 18: planned vacation types in the next 12 months, Potential Passengers segment vs all, 2024
- Advertise novelty and experiences to augment the appeal of travel deals
- Graph 19: vacation motivations, Potential Passengers segment vs all, 2024
- Give Passengers more ways to defer costs to help cultivate their identity
- Graph 20: planned method of funding “main” upcoming trip, Potential Passengers segment vs all, 2024
- Limited budget narrows Passengers’ scope of difficulties, for now
- Graph 21: expected areas of difficulty in planning “main” trip, Potential Passengers vs all, 2024
- Instill fun into Potential Passengers’ discovery process
- Graph 22: attitudes toward travel planning – any agree, Potential Passengers segment vs all, 2024
- Appealing to Habitual Homebodies
- Habitual Homebodies demographic recap
- Habitual Homebodies are dug into their routine, and may not want to be dug out
- Graph 23: attitudes toward travel – net agree, Habitual Homebodies segment vs all, 2024
- Don’t show Homebodies a new place, but a new light on a familiar one
- Graph 24: planned vacation types in the next 12 months, Habitual Homebodies segment vs all, 2024
- Motivations show they’re not called “Habitual” for nothing
- Graph 25: vacation motivations, Habitual Homebodies segment vs all, 2024
- Offer Homebodies a way to organize payments to ease the planning burden
- Graph 26: planned method of funding “main” upcoming trip, Habitual Homebodies segment vs all, 2024
- If trying to break their habits, you have to make the process painless
- Graph 27: attitudes toward travel planning – any agree, Habitual Homebodies segment vs all, 2024
- Appeal of slow vacations underscores Homebodies’ mindset
- Graph 28: interest in vacation trends, Habitual Homebodies segment vs all, 2024
- Appealing to Forethinking Forayers
- Forethinking Forayers demographic recap
- Forayers’ experience and network makes them discerning vacationers
- Graph 29: attitudes toward travel – net agree, Forethinking Forayers segment vs all, 2024
- An older group will need hands-on help in reaching their 2025 travel goals
- Graph 30: planned vacation types in the next 12 months, Forethinking Forayers segment vs all, 2024
- Older and bolder: show Forayers a whole new world
- Graph 31: vacation motivations, Forethinking Forayers segment vs all, 2024
- Loyalty needs to speak to those bankrolling multigen travel
- Graph 32: planned method of funding “main” upcoming trip, Forethinking Forayers segment vs all, 2024
- Forayers are planning experts, but will always welcome help
- Graph 33: expected areas of difficulty in planning “main” trip, Forethinking Forayers segment vs all, 2024
- Make research and planning an experience for Forayers
- Graph 34: attitudes toward travel planning – any agree, Forethinking Forayers segment vs all, 2024
- Forayers relish the opportunity to take things slow
- Graph 35: interest in vacation trends, Forethinking Forayers segment vs all, 2024
- Vacation associations
- Knowing where travelers go for fulfillment can inform strategy
- Graph 36: vacation associations, 2024
- Appeal to women when marketing resorts
- Graph 37: all-inclusive resort vacation associations, by gender, 2024
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
- Launch activity and innovation
- Airbnb relaunches Experiences – but is it too late to the activities game?
- United takes a detour with new less-traveled summer routes
- Advisors press off-season travel as a way to meet personal goals
- Zagreb shows off its unique museums to those wanting an off-kilter learning experience
- Start-up funding flows to trend-worthy companies
- POV: investing in AI to help travel planning comes with a caution…
- …as AI falls short in understanding the nuanced, emotional aspects of travel
- Mintel Trends
- Mintel Trend: Influentials
- Mintel Trend: Extend My Brand
- Mintel Trend: Enjoyment Everywhere
- Marketing and advertising
- Intrepid “Not Hot” List
- Meta’s AI profiles and policies risk undermining advertising trust
- Southwest Airlines leads massive digital spend by the airline industry
- Graph 38: digital ad spend by airlines – select platforms, by month, 2022-24
- Southwest captures more eyes, but needs to covert them
- Graph 39: share of digital ad spending, by airline, 2024
- A platform shakeup may be on the horizon
- Graph 40: share of digital ad spending across platforms, by airline, 2024
- Graph 41: share of impressions on digital advertising, by airline, 2024
- Hoteliers spent big to lure cost-conscious vacationers
- Graph 42: digital monthly ad spending by select hotel groups – select platforms, 2022-24
- Marriott and Hilton battle to be heard
- Graph 43: share of digital ad spending by hotel group, 2024
- Social media is still the place for capturing attention
- Graph 44: share of digital ad spending across platforms, by hotel group, 2024
- Graph 45: share of impressions across platforms, by hotel group, 2024
- Norwegian’s smart spending push took a larger share of voice in 2024
- Norwegian focuses on its desktop audience
- Graph 46: share of digital ad spending across platforms, by cruise line, 2024
- Graph 47: share of digital ad impressions across platforms, by cruise line, 2024
- TikTok’s back, and will probably continue to be here
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APPENDIX
- Market definition
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
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