"The 2026 holiday season will be defined by a tension between celebratory traditions and economic pressures."
Brittany Steiger, Principal Analyst - Retail & eCommerce
Following moderate, single-digit winter holiday sales growth in 2025, consumers will enter the 2026 season with a familiar mix of resilience and caution.This winter holiday season will be defined by a mounting tension between a traditional, festive spirit and economic pressure. While shoppers largely expect to spend the same or more than last year, they also continue to navigate financial stress, messaging fatigue and emotional overload. The result is a high-intent but high-expectation consumer who demands value, convenience, personalization and emotional reassurance.
Beneath this broader resilience, widening income-based differences heavily influence spending flexibility, while generational divides reveal contrasting approaches to holiday traditions and mounting signs of shopper burnout. Nevertheless, consumers remain committed to prioritizing their seasonal purchases, finding a welcome respite from uncertainty in the timeless themes of togetherness and celebration.
To offset these pressures, an ongoing emphasis on value remains paramount. This includes monetary value realized through low prices, holiday promotions and other methods of saving, but also convenience, quality and premiumization. Digital touchpoints and the growing role of AI at retail also present new opportunities to accelerate personalization and discovery.
A recap of the 2025 winter holiday season, including:
What to expect during the 2026 winter holiday season:
This Report’s focus is on Winter holidays (eg Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa), as these represent the bulk of total holiday expenditures. For the purposes of this Report, “holiday shopping” refers to the expected consumer expenditures on holiday-specific items such as gifts, decorations, seasonal candy and other food, greeting cards and other expenditures.
This Report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Look Ahead: Winter Holiday Shopping – US, 2026; Look Back: Winter Holiday Shopping – US, 2025 and Winter Holiday Shopping – US, 2024.
Market Size Methodology
The Market: Total US retail sales during November and December, excluding motor vehicle and parts sales, based on the US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Surveys/Mintel
Anticipated expenditures are based on surveys conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™ for the National Retail Federation (NRF). These surveys are conducted in advance of the holidays. Dollar estimates refer to the amount respondents said they expect to spend on gifts and events related to the holiday. The amount they actually spend may differ.
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