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Description

Description

Covered in this report

The purpose of this report is to analyze consumers’ attitudes, behaviors, and perceptions surrounding the restaurant decisionmaking process. It will also examine how the restaurant decisionmaking process varies across demographics, generations, regions, and by race.

Market size estimates and forecasts in this Report are segmented as follows:

  • Full service restaurants
  • Limited service eating places, including limited service restaurants, cafeterias, grills/grill buffets, and snack/non-alcoholic beverage bars

"Mintel forecasts moderate growth in the restaurant industry, buoyed by a positive macroeconomic landscape that allows consumers to spend more on AFH (away from home) dining. However, on-premise dining is challenged by the abundance of prepared food choices, including food from retailers, food trucks, meal kits and delivery services. Opportunities lie in continuing to develop fresh, tasty menu items that balance indulgence and nutrition, while taking a flexible, innovative approach to new technologies available to order, serve, deliver and market foods."
- Amanda Topper, Associate Director - Foodservice

This report looks at the following areas:

  • FSRs continue to grow at a slower rate than LSRs
  • Many options for prepared food beyond traditional restaurants
  • Majority of consumers prefer at-home cooking and entertainment

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Key takeaways
          • The issues
            • FSRs continue to grow at a slower rate than LSRs
              • Figure 1: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
            • Many options for prepared food beyond traditional restaurants
              • Figure 2: Restaurant competition in the past three months, August 2019
            • Majority of consumers prefer at-home cooking and entertainment
              • Figure 3: Dining out behaviors – Agree, by frequency segments, august 2019
            • The opportunities
              • Restaurant visitation is high as consumers embrace abundance of choice
                • Figure 4: Restaurant visitation, August 2019
              • Showcase quality and range of menu
                • Figure 5: Dining out priorities, August 2019
              • Gen Z and Millennials have adventurous tastes, want delivery options and more snacks
                • Figure 6: Dining out behaviors, by generation, august 2019
              • Engage with customers through word of mouth, online reviews
                • Figure 7: Dining out behaviors – Agree, august 2019
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Restaurant market tops $640 billion, with LSRs growing faster
                • Majority have purchased prepared food outside of restaurants
                  • Gen Z and Millennials are key consumers to current and future market
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Foodservice market tops $640 billion with moderate growth forecast
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places* market, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places* market, at current prices, 2014-24
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • LSR growth outpaces FSR growth
                      • Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                      • Figure 11: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                    • LSRs forecasted to continue faster growth, relative to FSRs
                      • Figure 12: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited service eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Figure 13: Total US revenues and forecast of limited service eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
                    • FSR segment growth slows
                      • Figure 14: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Figure 15: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2014-24
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Over two thirds look beyond restaurants for prepared/made-to-order fare
                      • Convenience stores compete via growing foodservice offerings
                        • Sheetz and Wawa exemplify competition from c-stores; Amazon Go poised to expand
                          • Supermarkets and other retailers expand foodservice offerings
                            • Figure 16: Year-over-year change in prepared food purchases, October 2018
                          • Meal kits offer convenience, ease and gourmet options for at-home cooks
                          • Market Factors

                            • Consumer confidence remains fairly strong
                              • Figure 17: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007-September 2019
                            • Consumers have more discretionary funds
                              • Figure 18: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-August 2019
                            • Millennials are core diners, with Gen Z on horizon
                              • Figure 19: Dining out frequency in past three months, by generation, August 2019
                              • Figure 20: Population by generation, 2014-24
                            • Younger generations – and families – are increasingly diverse
                              • Figure 21: Distribution of population, by generation and Hispanic origin, 2019
                            • Health-related considerations shape restaurant choices
                              • Weight loss is a concern for many as obesity rates continue to climb
                                • Figure 22: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are overweight or obese, 2001-02 to 2015-16
                              • For Gen Z and Millennials, holistic view of health puts focus on quality, not calories
                                • Personal health – and that of the planet – driving interest in plant-based proteins
                                  • Quest for healthier fare may propel more at-home cooking
                                  • Key Trends – What you need to know

                                    • Technology offers speed, efficiency and convenience
                                      • Shifting consumer habits impact full service restaurants
                                        • Drop-off stations, vending machines and ghost kitchens
                                          • Earth-friendly menu items and practices aligns with diners’ desire for sustainability
                                          • What’s Working?

                                            • Using technology to improve speed and offer convenience
                                              • Kiosks and tablets allow for efficient ordering and payment
                                                • Modern drive-thrus integrate new tech for customization and personalization
                                                  • Mobile apps with loyalty programs and online reviews
                                                    • Delivery apps support “blended” meals
                                                      • Meal kits offer yet another way to bring restaurant tastes into the home
                                                      • What’s Struggling?

                                                        • Some larger chains – especially in casual dining – continue to struggle
                                                          • Sit-down business lunches fall out of favor
                                                          • What’s Next?

                                                            • Drop-off stations, vending machines, and ghost kitchens
                                                              • Innovative plant-based meats marry taste and sustainability
                                                                • Figure 23: interest in healthy menu items, by generation, December 2018
                                                              • Eco-friendly, no-plastic packaging as part of sustainability efforts
                                                                • Figure 24: Current and future habits related to sustainability, March 2019
                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                              • When dining out, consumers have an abundance of choice and use it!
                                                                • From fast food to fine dining, users have wide-ranging associations
                                                                  • Customers prioritize cuisine type, taste, menu variety
                                                                    • Word-of-mouth and online reviews are vital for engaging customers
                                                                    • Restaurant Visitation

                                                                      • Most diners visit three or more restaurants
                                                                        • Figure 25: repertoire of types of restaurants visited, August 2019
                                                                      • Fast food reigns thanks to continued appeal of speed, affordability
                                                                        • Figure 26: Restaurant visitation, August 2019
                                                                      • Income is a key driver for restaurant visitation
                                                                        • Figure 27: Restaurant visitation, by household income, August 2019
                                                                      • Millennials and Gen X are top users of most restaurant types
                                                                        • Figure 28: Restaurant visitation, by generation, August 2019
                                                                      • Millennials and Gen X turn to the widest range of venues
                                                                        • Figure 29: Repertoire of restaurants visited, by generation, August 2019
                                                                      • Parents are top restaurant-goers, so catering to kids and teens is vital
                                                                        • Figure 30: Restaurant visitation, by parental status, August 2019
                                                                      • Asians and Hispanics favor certain venues, such as food halls/courts
                                                                        • Figure 31: Restaurant visitation, by race, August 2019
                                                                        • Figure 32: Restaurant visitation, by Hispanic origin, August 2019
                                                                    • Dining Out Frequency

                                                                      • Two thirds dine out at least once a week
                                                                        • Figure 33: Dining out frequency in past three months, August 2019
                                                                      • Income drives frequency of dining out
                                                                        • Figure 34: Dining out frequency in past three months, by household income, August 2019
                                                                      • Millennials and Gen X comprise large share of high-frequency diners
                                                                        • Figure 35: Dining out frequency in past three months, by generation, August 2019
                                                                      • Parents over-index as high-frequency diners
                                                                        • Figure 36: Dining out frequency in past three months, by parental status, August 2019
                                                                    • Restaurant Competition

                                                                      • Competition abounds as two thirds buy prepared food from retailers
                                                                        • Figure 37: Restaurant competition in the past three months, August 2019
                                                                      • Gen Z and Millennials are most engaged prepared-food buyers
                                                                        • Figure 38: Restaurant competition in the past three months, part I, by generation, August 2019
                                                                        • Figure 39: Restaurant competition in the past three months, part II, by generation, August 2019
                                                                      • Feeding kids on the go has parents seeking food everywhere
                                                                        • Figure 40: Restaurant competition in the past three months, by parental status, August 2019
                                                                      • Hispanics over-index for purchasing food at retailers
                                                                        • Figure 41: Restaurant competition in the past three months, by Hispanic origin, August 2019
                                                                    • Restaurant Segment Associations

                                                                      • Fast food heavily associated with speed, convenience and affordability
                                                                        • Fast casual and casual dining are seen as high-value propositions
                                                                          • Fine dining seen as innovative, unique, enjoyable…but not for kids!
                                                                            • Figure 42: Restaurant segment associations, August 2019
                                                                        • Dining Out Priorities

                                                                          • Food first – as consumers prioritize cuisine type, taste, menu variety
                                                                            • Figure 43: Dining out priorities, net – Any rank, August 2019
                                                                          • Older generations place greater emphasis on cuisine type and menu
                                                                            • Figure 44: Dining out priorities, net – Any rank, by generation, August 2019
                                                                          • Less affluent seek speed, convenience and kid-friendly menus
                                                                            • Figure 45: Dining out priorities, net – Any rank, by household income, August 2019
                                                                          • Race and Hispanic origin shape some priorities
                                                                            • Figure 46: Dining out priorities, net – Any rank, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2019
                                                                        • Dining Out Behaviors

                                                                          • Word of mouth is key, as recommendations drive traffic to new venues
                                                                            • Online reviews are used, but taken with a grain of salt
                                                                              • Indulgent, adventurous fare sought by many when dining out
                                                                                  • Figure 47: Dining out behaviors – Agree, august 2019
                                                                                • Delivery is prized by Gen Z and Millennials
                                                                                  • Figure 48: Dining out behaviors – Agree, by generation, august 2019
                                                                                • Parents want more snack options
                                                                                  • Figure 49: Dining out behaviors – Agree, by parental status, august 2019
                                                                                • High-frequency diners are less likely to enjoy at-home cooking
                                                                                  • Figure 50: Dining out behaviors – Agree, part I, by frequency segments, august 2019
                                                                                • A range of behaviors reflect high-frequency diners’ love of food
                                                                                  • Figure 51: Dining out behaviors – Agree, part II, by frequency segments, august 2019
                                                                                • Blacks and Hispanics interested in snack options and delivery
                                                                                  • Figure 52: Dining out behaviors – Agree, by race and Hispanic origin, august 2019
                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                • Data sources
                                                                                  • Sales data
                                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                                        • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                • Figure 53: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places* market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                • Figure 54: Total US sales and forecast of limited service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                • Figure 55: Total US sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                • Figure 56: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2019

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