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Description

Description

“The value of autumn events rose by an estimated 5.8% in 2015, driven by increased spend on Halloween among young families and Millennials, and continued high purchasing levels for back-to-school. Overshadowed by these events and the Christmas build-up, the retail boost from Bonfire Night is relatively small. The supermarkets dominate these events, yet competition is mounting from the discounters and pureplays.”
– Alice Goody, Retail Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

  • What are the prospects for the back-to-school market?
  • What is driving growth in the Halloween market?
  • How have the supermarkets fared? What are the opportunities and challenges facing them?

Back-to-school is the second largest seasonal event behind Christmas; most of parents make a purchase for their child in time for the school term. The market remains highly price-sensitive, yet a willingness to trade up suggests potential for future growth. The retail boost from Bonfire Night is relatively small, overshadowed by Halloween and the pre-Christmas build-up. Millennials have emerged as a key consumer group driving spend on Halloween.

This Report focuses on the key seasonal events in the autumn – back-to-school, Halloween and Bonfire Night.

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Seasonal events market sizes
                • Figure 1: Estimated Autumn/Winter seasonal events market size (Including VAT), 2015
              • Retail sales in autumn/winter
                • Figure 2: Value of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by autumn/winter months, 2013-15
              • The consumer
                • Bonfire Night purchasing overshadowed by Halloween
                  • Figure 3: Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                • UK consumers get in the spirit of Halloween
                  • Figure 4: Participation in Halloween activities, December 2015
                • The supermarkets dominate
                  • Figure 5: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                • A third spent more on Halloween in 2015
                  • Figure 6: Attitudes towards Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                • 80% of parents purchase for back-to-school
                  • Figure 7: Products purchased for the start of the 2015-16 school year, December 2015
                • Amazon ranks third for back-to-school purchasing
                  • Figure 8: Retailers used for purchasing for the start of the 2015-16 school term, nets, December 2015
                • Parents are willing to trade up on school uniform
                  • Figure 9: Attitudes towards back-to-school, December 2015
                • What we think
                • Issues and Insights

                  • What are the prospects for the back-to-school market?
                    • The facts
                      • The implications
                        • What is driving growth in the Halloween market?
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                              • How have the supermarkets fared? What are the opportunities and challenges facing them?
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                    • Seasonal events market size
                                      • Favourable economic conditions
                                        • Change to school leaving age legislation
                                        • Market Size

                                          • Favourable economic conditions
                                            • Back-to-school worth £580 million
                                              • Changes to school leaving age legislation
                                                • Halloween delivers strong growth
                                                  • Bonfire Night overshadowed by other events
                                                    • Figure 10: Estimated Autumn/Winter seasonal events market size (Including VAT), 2015
                                                • Retail Sales across the Year

                                                  • Autumn takes greatest share of retail spend
                                                    • Figure 11: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2015
                                                  • By month, December dominates by far…
                                                    • Figure 12: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
                                                  • …yet, in 2015, December sales were down year on year
                                                    • Figure 13: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
                                                  • Retail sales by category
                                                    • Figure 14: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2014-15
                                                  • Autumn and winter events in focus
                                                    • Figure 15: Value of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by autumn/winter months, 2013-15
                                                    • Figure 16: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
                                                • Online Retail Sales across the Year

                                                    • November is the biggest month for online
                                                      • Figure 17: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, monthly, 2014-15
                                                      • Figure 18: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2014 and 2015
                                                    • January boasts highest year-on-year growth
                                                      • Figure 19: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2015
                                                    • Online retail sales by category
                                                      • Figure 20: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, monthly, 2014 and 2015
                                                  • Advertising Spend across the Year

                                                    • Advertising peaks in November
                                                      • Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, 2015
                                                      • Figure 22: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, monthly as a % of total spending, 2015
                                                    • Back-to-school advertising: M&S focuses on innovation
                                                      • Figure 23: Selected leading retailers’ above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on back-to-school products, 2013-15
                                                      • Figure 24: Marks and Spencer’s ‘First Day of School’ television advert, 2015
                                                    • Halloween advertising: Asda leads the pack
                                                      • Figure 25: Selected leading retailers’ above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on Halloween products, 2013-15
                                                      • Figure 26: Asda’s Halloween-related Facebook posts, 2015
                                                    • Bonfire Night advertising: Morrisons investment pays off
                                                      • Figure 27: Selected leading retailers’ above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure around Bonfire Night, 2013-15
                                                    • Television is the dominant channel
                                                      • Figure 28: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers during the autumn and winter months, by media type, 2015
                                                    • Nielsen Media Research coverage
                                                    • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                      • Back-to-school
                                                        • Marks and Spencer’s innovative approach
                                                          • Aldi introduces most affordable uniform to date
                                                            • Sainsbury’s launches Tu online in time for autumn/winter events
                                                              • Pep&Co and FG4 take on school wear market
                                                                • Halloween
                                                                  • The Co-op’s ‘Local Shop of Horrors’
                                                                    • Nisa to ‘have a hoot’ this Halloween
                                                                      • Asda’s augmented reality monster campaign
                                                                        • Harrods’ Halloween themed conserves
                                                                          • Other events
                                                                            • Tesco joins in Diwali celebrations
                                                                              • Tesco celebrates the nations for Rugby World Cup
                                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                • Bonfire Night purchasing overshadowed by Halloween
                                                                                  • Parents of young children and Millennials drive seasonal spend
                                                                                    • One in five young Millennials dresses up on Halloween
                                                                                      • Supermarkets dominate
                                                                                        • A third spent more on Halloween in 2015
                                                                                          • Pet owners are a key demographic for retailers to target
                                                                                            • 80% of parents purchase for back-to-school
                                                                                              • Amazon gains more back-to-school shoppers than Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                • Parents shop around the lowest prices…
                                                                                                  • …yet they are willing to pay more for school uniform innovations
                                                                                                    • Millennial parents the most influenced by advertising
                                                                                                    • Halloween and Bonfire Night – Purchasing

                                                                                                      • Four in ten spend on Halloween
                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                                                                                                      • Parents and Millennials are the key consumer groups
                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Product purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night - parents, non-parents and Millennials, December 2015
                                                                                                        • Halloween generates multiple product purchases
                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Repertoire of types of product purchased for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Repertoire of product types purchased for Halloween – Parents, December 2015
                                                                                                        • Amount spent on Halloween and Bonfire Night
                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Amount spent on Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                                                                                                      • Participation in Halloween Activities

                                                                                                        • 13% of UK consumers carved a pumpkin
                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Participation in Halloween activities, December 2015
                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Participation in Halloween activities and products purchased for Halloween, December 2015
                                                                                                        • East Midlands the least interested in Halloween activities
                                                                                                          • One in five young Millennials dresses up for the occasion
                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Activities participated in for Halloween – Parents of young children, December 2015
                                                                                                        • Halloween and Bonfire Night – Retailers Used

                                                                                                          • Supermarkets dominate
                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, nets, December 2015
                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                                                                                                          • Discount sector take on the supermarkets
                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Retailers used when purchasing for Halloween and Bonfire Night, December 2015
                                                                                                          • Profile of Halloween shoppers
                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Profile of consumers who purchased for Halloween in 2015, by retailers shopped at, December 2015
                                                                                                          • Profile of Bonfire Night shoppers
                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Profile of consumers who purchased for Bonfire Night in 2015, by retailers shopped at, December 2015
                                                                                                        • Attitudes towards Halloween and Bonfire Night

                                                                                                          • A third spent more on Halloween in 2015
                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Attitudes towards Halloween, December 2015
                                                                                                          • Majority of Halloween shoppers plan their purchases
                                                                                                            • Pet owners are a key demographic for retailers to target
                                                                                                              • Consumers re-use their existing fancy dress
                                                                                                                • Bonfire Night: Organised displays are the preference
                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Attitudes towards Bonfire Night, December 2015
                                                                                                              • Back-to-School – Purchasing

                                                                                                                • Products purchased for the start of the 2015 term
                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Products purchased for the start of the 2015-16 school year, December 2015
                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Products purchased for the start of the 2015-16 school year, by the age of parent’s children, December 2015
                                                                                                                • Teenagers drive stationery purchases
                                                                                                                  • Who’s buying the most?
                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Repertoire of product types purchased for back-to-school, December 2015
                                                                                                                • Back-to-School – Amount Spent

                                                                                                                  • Just under £100 spent on uniform
                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Amount spent on back-to-school products, December 2015
                                                                                                                  • Average spend grows in 2015
                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Percentage change in average spend on back-to-school products, by category, 2014-15, November 2014 and December 2015
                                                                                                                • Back-to-School – Retailers Used

                                                                                                                  • Tesco and Asda resonate well with parents
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Retailers used for purchasing for the start of the 2015-16 school term, nets, December 2015
                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Retailers used for purchasing for the start of the 2015-16 school term, nets, December 2015
                                                                                                                  • Discounters overtake specialists
                                                                                                                    • Profile of back-to-school shoppers
                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Profile of consumers who purchased for back-to-school in 2015, by retailers shopped at, December 2015
                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Back-to-School

                                                                                                                    • Parents make considered back-to-school purchases
                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Attitudes towards back-to-school, December 2015
                                                                                                                    • Parents willing to trade up on uniform
                                                                                                                      • Millennial parents the most influenced by advertising
                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Attitude to the statement “Seeing a 'back-to-school' advertising campaign has encouraged me to buy from a particular store” - Older Millennials and Generation X, December 2015
                                                                                                                      • ABs choose retailers that offer personalisation
                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Marks and Spencer’s ‘Make it Personalised’ offer on its back-to-school online homepage, 2015
                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                      • Data sources
                                                                                                                        • Market sizes
                                                                                                                          • VAT
                                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                              • Consumer research methodology

                                                                                                                              About the report

                                                                                                                              This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                              • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                              • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                              • The Market

                                                                                                                                Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                              • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                              • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                              • The Trends

                                                                                                                                What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                              Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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