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Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - January 2019

“The smoking cessation category is expected to decline in value in 2018 following a period of no breakthrough innovation as well as reduced recorded advertising spend since 2015. E-cigarettes, on the other hand, are predicted to have enjoyed strong value growth as smokers continue to use these as a smoking cessation method. With public health bodies such as the NHS and PHE advocating the use of E-cigarettes as an alternative to smoking, as well as a way to help kick the habit altogether, smokers are increasingly taking up vaping.”

– Roshida Khanom, Associate Director BPC

This report examines the following issues:

  • TPD does little to hamper the vaping market
  • Is it time for NRT brands to embrace vaping?

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Smoking cessation market is in decline
              • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2013-23
            • E-cigarettes see strong growth
              • Companies and brands
                • Smoking cessation sees a decline in recorded advertising spend
                  • Figure 2: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
                • Advertising restrictions see E-cigarette brands go outdoors
                  • Figure 3: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
                • The consumer
                  • Smoking status sees no change
                    • Figure 4: Smoking status, October 2016 and October 2018
                  • Vaping sees a rise
                    • Figure 5: Vaping status, October 2016 and October 2018
                  • E-cigarettes are used to quit smoking
                    • Figure 6: Reasons for using E-cigarettes, October 2018
                  • Refillable E-cigarettes are most popular
                    • Figure 7: Purchase of types of E-cigarettes, October 2018
                  • Vapers shop at specialist stores
                    • Figure 8: Places of purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2018
                  • More smokers are quitting
                    • Figure 9: Intentions to quit smoking, October 2016 and October 2018
                  • More people quit in the last 12 months
                    • Figure 10: Status of those who have already quit, October 2016 and October 2018
                  • Usage of non-prescription NRT sees little change
                    • Figure 11: Smoking cessation methods used, October 2018
                  • The desire for regulation
                    • Figure 12: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2018
                  • What we think
                  • Issues and Insights

                    • TPD does little to hamper the vaping market
                      • The facts
                        • The implications
                          • Is it time for NRT brands to embrace vaping?
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                • Smoking cessation is in decline…
                                  • …whilst E-cigarettes enjoy value growth
                                    • Chemists see the largest decline
                                      • Rise in teens could see E-cigarettes further regulated
                                        • Smoking is costly
                                          • E-cigarette usage is increasing
                                            • TPD has had little impact on vaping
                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                              • Smoking cessation is in decline
                                                • Figure 13: UK value sales of smoking cessation products, 2013-23
                                              • E-cigarettes see an upsurge
                                                • Figure 14: NHS Smokefree advice on E-cigarettes, January 2019
                                              • Smoking cessation category will continue to struggle
                                                • Figure 15: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2013-23
                                              • Forecast methodology
                                              • Channels to Market

                                                • Chemists see the largest decline
                                                  • Figure 16: UK retail value sales of smoking cessation aids, by outlet type, 2017 and 2018
                                                • Own-label brands help keep multiple grocers afloat
                                                • Market Drivers

                                                  • Rise in teens could refresh E-cigarette concerns
                                                    • Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
                                                  • Smoking is expensive
                                                    • Figure 18: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, September 2016-September 2018
                                                  • Appearance is a driver for health
                                                    • Figure 19: Incentives to lead a healthier lifestyle, August 2018
                                                  • Stressful lifestyles could encourage bad behaviours
                                                    • E-cigarette users are on the rise
                                                      • Figure 20: Number of E-cigarettes users (vapers) in Great Britain, 2012-18
                                                    • TPD likely to have had little impact on vaping
                                                      • Figure 21: Strength of nicotine used by current E-cigarette users in Great Britain, 2017 and 2018
                                                  • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                    • Own-label brands fare well
                                                      • Own-label brands see NPD
                                                        • Nicotine replacement products innovate in flavours
                                                          • E-cigarettes see innovation in closed-system pens
                                                            • The battle of the tobacco giants
                                                              • Advertising spend in smoking cessation sees a decline
                                                                • Using the power of peers
                                                                  • E-cigarettes go outdoors
                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                    • Own-label sees significant rise
                                                                      • Figure 22: Brand shares in the UK value sales of smoking cessation products, years ending October 2017 and 2018
                                                                  • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                    • Own-label sees innovation
                                                                      • NPD in flavours
                                                                        • Nicorette innovates in devices
                                                                          • 2018 sees closed-system E-cigarettes
                                                                            • Figure 23: Vype E-pen, July 2018
                                                                          • Juul comes to the UK
                                                                          • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                            • Recorded advertising spend in smoking cessation sees a dip
                                                                              • Figure 24: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
                                                                            • E-cigarette brands get outdoors
                                                                              • Figure 25: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                              • Smokers remain constant whilst vapers see a rise
                                                                                • Vaping is used as a smoking cessation method
                                                                                  • Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular
                                                                                    • Intentions to quit smoking are high
                                                                                      • Use of non-prescription NRT shows little change
                                                                                        • Regulation is desired
                                                                                          • The negatives of vaping
                                                                                          • Smoking and Vaping Status

                                                                                            • Smoking status sees no change
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Smoking status, October 2016 and October 2018
                                                                                            • Vaping sees a rise
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Vaping status, October 2016 and October 2018
                                                                                          • Reasons for Using E-cigarettes

                                                                                            • E-cigarettes are used to quit smoking
                                                                                              • Figure 28: Reasons for using E-cigarettes, October 2018
                                                                                            • Enjoyment is high in young vapers
                                                                                              • Social norm vs faux pas
                                                                                              • Purchase of E-cigarettes

                                                                                                • Refillable E-cigarettes are preferred
                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Purchase of types of E-cigarettes, by gender, October 2018
                                                                                                • Men are using disposables
                                                                                                  • Men are engaged with the shopping experience
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Places of purchase of E-cigarettes, by gender, October 2018
                                                                                                • Quitting Smoking Status

                                                                                                  • More smokers are quitting
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Intentions to quit smoking, October 2016 and October 2018
                                                                                                  • More people quit in the last 12 months
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Status of those who have already quit, October 2016 and October 2018
                                                                                                  • E-cigarettes are popular with those trying to quit
                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Vaping status, by intentions to quit smoking, October 2018
                                                                                                • Smoking Cessation Methods Used

                                                                                                  • E-cigarettes are the most popular smoking cessation method
                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Smoking cessation methods used, October 2018
                                                                                                  • Use of NRT shows little change
                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards E-cigarettes

                                                                                                    • The desire for regulation
                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2018
                                                                                                    • Too many young people vape…or do they?
                                                                                                      • Vaping as a gateway
                                                                                                        • Vaping vs smoking
                                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                              • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                • Forecast methodology

                                                                                                                Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - January 2019

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