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Soft Drinks - Ireland - November 2017

“Sugar content continues to be the dominant theme in the soft drinks market, with the April 2018 introduction of the sugar tax/ levy likely to disrupt consumer drinking habits somewhat.  Moving forward we are likely to see an increased shift to diet/ low-sugar variants.”

– Brian O’Connor, Senior Consumer Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Obesity a major health issue in Ireland
  • Sugar taxes being introduced in 2018
  • Soft drink prices increasing in UK/NI, declining in RoI
  • Increasing visitor numbers an opportunity for on-trade soft drink sales

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
        • Bottled water
          • Fruit juices, fruit drinks and smoothies
            • Cordials and squashes
              • Carbonated drinks
              • Executive Summary

                  • The market
                    • Figure 1: Estimated value sales for all soft drinks, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-17
                  • Forecast
                    • Figure 2: Indexed estimated value sales for all soft drinks, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                  • Market factors
                    • Obesity a major health issue in Ireland
                      • Sugar taxes being introduced in 2018
                        • Soft drink prices increasing in UK/NI, declining in RoI
                          • Increasing visitor numbers an opportunity for on-trade soft drink sales
                            • Companies and Innovations
                              • The consumer
                                • Bottled water usage driven by health trend
                                  • Figure 3: Types of non-carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk in the last month, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                • Colas most used type of carbonate
                                  • Figure 4: Types of carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk in the last month, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                • 2017 sees consumers cut back on sugary drinks
                                  • Figure 5: Consumer soft drink behaviours, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                • Appetite for bottle return soft drinks scheme
                                  • Figure 6: Agreement with statements relating to soft drinks, NI and RoI, September 2017
                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                • Soft drinks sales to grow in 2017
                                  • Sugar tax to be introduced in UK/NI and RoI
                                    • Weight issues continue to affect Irish consumers
                                      • Increased visitors an opportunity for soft drinks brands
                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                          • Value sales continue to grow in 2017
                                            • Figure 7: Estimated value sales for all soft drinks, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                          • On-trade sees slight drop in 2017
                                            • Figure 8: Estimated value sales for all on-trade soft drinks, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                          • Off-trade sees strong growth between 2016 and 2017
                                            • Figure 9: Estimated value sales for all off-trade soft drinks, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                        • Market Segmentation

                                            • Inflation in NI and improved out-of-home activity increase carbonated sales
                                              • Figure 10: Total value sales of carbonated drinks market, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                              • Figure 11: On-trade vs. off-trade value sales of carbonated drinks, NI and RoI, 2012-17
                                            • Growth continues to be sluggish in the juice sector
                                              • Figure 12: Total value sales of juice drinks market, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                            • Water value continues to grow due to health trend
                                              • Figure 13: Estimated value sales of non-carbonated bottled water sector, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                            • Concentrate sector continues to decline
                                              • Figure 14: Estimated value sales of concentrate sector (including cordials and squash), IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                            • Sports and energy drinks sales continue to grow in 2017
                                              • Figure 15: Estimated value sales of sports and energy drinks, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                          • Market Drivers

                                            • April 2018 to see new sugar levy introduced simultaneously in UK and RoI
                                              • Companies already taking steps to reduce sugar
                                                  • Figure 16: Number of carbonated soft drink launches claiming to have L/N/R sugar, UK and Ireland, 2012-17
                                                  • Figure 17: Number of carbonated soft drink launches claiming to have L/N/R sugar, by company, UK and Ireland, 2012-17*
                                                • Sugar tax set to see consumers cut back
                                                  • Figure 18: How consumers would change their drinking habits for fizzy drinks if a 24p/30c tax was introduced, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                  • Figure 19: Ingredients in food and drink products consumers are concerned about, NI and RoI, June 2017
                                                • Soft drink prices declining in RoI, increasing in the UK/NI
                                                  • Figure 20: Consumer price indices for minerals/ spring water, soft drinks and fruit & vegetable juices, 2012 January-September 2017
                                                  • Figure 21: Consumer price indices for soft drinks, January 2015-September 2017
                                                  • Figure 22: Historical exchange rates, UK Sterling (£) compared to euro (€) and US Dollar ($), 2012-17
                                                • Obesity remains a growing challenge for the industry
                                                  • Figure 23: Obesity levels in adults aged 16+, NI, 2010/11-2015/16
                                                  • Figure 24: Obesity levels in children aged 2-15, NI, 2012/13-2015/16
                                                  • Figure 25: Body mass index, by gender, RoI, 2015
                                                  • Figure 26: Percentage of under-5s classed as overweight or obese, EU, 2015
                                                • Boost in tourism helping soft drink sales
                                                  • Figure 27: Tourist performance of NI, January-June 2017
                                                  • Figure 28: Trips to RoI, by area of origin, January-September 2014-17
                                              • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                • SHS Group expands with purchase of Standard Brands
                                                  • Coca-Cola packaging targets more sustainability
                                                    • PepsiCo targeting growth through healthy drinks and snacks
                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                      • Strong level of soft drink launch activity in 2016-17
                                                        • Figure 29: Top launches of soft drinks, UK and Ireland, 2011-17*
                                                      • Juice the most commonly launched soft drink since 2012, ahead of carbonated drinks
                                                        • Figure 30: Top claims by new soft drinks products launched, UK and Ireland 2012-17*
                                                      • Ethical or environmentally friendly packaging claims see compound increase from 2016 to 2017
                                                        • Many new products launched combine the top four claims
                                                          • Figure 31: Top claims made by new carbonated soft drinks products launched, 2012-17*, UK and Ireland
                                                        • Major brands already prepared for next year by developing new recipes to cut sugar
                                                          • Rising number of soft drinks claiming added functionality
                                                          • Company Profiles

                                                              • AG Barr
                                                                • Key facts
                                                                  • Product portfolio
                                                                    • Figure 32: AG Barr carbonated, still, water and fruit juice-based soft drinks products, 2017
                                                                  • Brand NPD
                                                                    • Recent developments
                                                                      • Britvic Ireland
                                                                        • Key facts
                                                                          • Product portfolio
                                                                            • Figure 33: Britvic carbonated, still, water and fruit juice-based soft drinks products, 2017
                                                                          • Brand NPD
                                                                            • Recent developments
                                                                              • SHS Group
                                                                                • Key facts
                                                                                  • Product portfolio
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Bottlegreen and Shloer brand soft drinks products, 2017
                                                                                  • Brand NPD
                                                                                    • Recent developments
                                                                                      • Coca-Cola
                                                                                        • Key facts
                                                                                          • Product portfolio
                                                                                            • Figure 35: Coca-Cola carbonated, still, mixers and fruit juice-based soft drinks products, 2017
                                                                                          • Brand NPD
                                                                                            • Recent developments
                                                                                              • Danone
                                                                                                • Key facts
                                                                                                  • Product portfolio
                                                                                                    • Brand NPD
                                                                                                      • Recent developments
                                                                                                        • Del Monte
                                                                                                          • Key facts
                                                                                                            • Product portfolio
                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Del Monte fruit juice and fruit juice-based soft drink products, 2017
                                                                                                            • Brand NPD
                                                                                                              • PepsiCo
                                                                                                                • Key facts
                                                                                                                  • Product Portfolio
                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: PepsiCo carbonated, still and fruit juice products, 2017
                                                                                                                  • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                    • Recent developments
                                                                                                                      • Princes Group Ltd.
                                                                                                                        • Key facts
                                                                                                                          • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Princes and Jucee pure fruit juice, fruit juice blends, fruit juice blends and cordials soft drinks products, 2017
                                                                                                                          • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                            • Lucozade Ribena Suntory
                                                                                                                              • Key facts
                                                                                                                                • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Lucozade Ribena Suntory carbonated, still and fruit juice-based soft drinks products, 2017
                                                                                                                                • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                                  • Recent developments
                                                                                                                                    • Red Bull
                                                                                                                                      • Key facts
                                                                                                                                        • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Red Bull energy drink products, 2017
                                                                                                                                        • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                          • Bottled water the non-carbonated beverage of choice
                                                                                                                                            • Cola the most popular carbonated soft drink
                                                                                                                                              • Consumers avoiding sugary soft drinks
                                                                                                                                                • Bottle return scheme interests Irish consumers
                                                                                                                                                • Usage of Non-carbonated Beverages

                                                                                                                                                    • Bottled water most popular non-carbonate
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Types of non-carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk in the last month, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                    • Water usage stronger among women and 16-24-year-olds
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Consumers who have drunk bottled water in the last month, by gender and age, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                    • NI consumers stronger users of squash and cordial
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Consumers who have drunk squash and cordial at home in the last month, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                    • Over a third have used 100% pure juice
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Consumers who have drunk 100% fruit juice at home in the last month, by presence of children, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                  • Usage of Carbonated Beverages

                                                                                                                                                      • Standard colas maintain top spot in 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Types of carbonated drinks that consumers have drunk in the last month, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                      • Millennials and men chief users of standard cola
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Consumers who have drunk standard colas at home in the last month, by gender and age, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Actual and projected population (%) for RoI and NI, by age, 2011 and 2026
                                                                                                                                                      • Diet colas appeal more to Irish women
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Consumers who have drunk standard colas vs diet colas at home in the last month, by gender, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                      • NI consumers stronger users of carbonated energy drinks
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Consumers who have drunk carbonated energy drinks in the last month, by age, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                    • Soft Drink Behaviours

                                                                                                                                                        • Over half of consumers avoiding sugary drinks
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Consumer soft drink behaviours, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • Mature consumers more inclined to avoid sugary drinks
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Agreement with the statement ‘I am more likely to avoid sugary carbonated drinks compared to 12 months ago’, by age, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • Tap water seeing increased usage
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Agreement with the statement ‘I am drinking more tap water compared to 12 months ago’, by social class group, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • One in three interested in high-protein soft drinks
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying soft drinks that contain a higher level of protein’, by gender, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Perceived benefits of eating or drinking high-protein food and drinks, NI and RoI, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes towards Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                          • Bottle return scheme appeals to four in five consumers
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Agreement with statements relating to soft drinks, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Bottle return scheme more popular among women
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Agreement with the statement “I would like to see a money-back bottle return scheme of soft drink bottles introduced to help reduce packaging waste”, by gender, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Three quarters of consumers want manufacturers to take steps to reduce sugar…
                                                                                                                                                            • …but taste is more important than low sugar
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Agreement with the statement “Taste is more important than low sugar content when buying soft drinks”, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer research
                                                                                                                                                              • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                • Market size rationale
                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                                                                                    • Market segmentation tables
                                                                                                                                                                      • Bottled water
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Estimated value of bottled water sector, on-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Estimated value of bottled water sector, off-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                      • Juice
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Estimated value of juice sector, on-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Estimated value of juice sector, off-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                      • Concentrate
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Estimated value of concentrate sector (inc cordials and squash), on-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Estimated value of concentrate sector (inc cordials and squash), off-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                      • Carbonated beverages
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Value sales of carbonated drinks market – on-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Value sales of carbonated drinks market – off-trade, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                      • Energy drinks
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Estimated value sales of sports and energy drinks, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-22

                                                                                                                                                                    Soft Drinks - Ireland - November 2017

                                                                                                                                                                    US $1,478.58 (Excl.Tax)