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Description

Description

“During an uncertain period, demand in the grocery sector has held up well. Within this the underlying demographic shifts continue to see sales move away from larger-format stores, but they remain the format that attracts the majority of two thirds of consumers’ grocery budgets.”
– Nick Carroll, Associate Director of Retail Research

This Report will cover the following areas:
2010-19: A review
2030: The demographic and technological drivers of shopping behaviour
2030: The channels and players that will succeed

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Real incomes continue to grow but there is still uncertainty in the market
              • Figure 1: Average weekly earnings, by consumer price index, January 2016-September 2019
            • Spending on food and drink slowed in 2018
              • Supermarkets on track to record third consecutive year of growth in 2019
                • Figure 2: All food retail sales (inc. VAT), 2014-24
                • Figure 3: Supermarkets’ market size and forecast (inc. VAT), 2014-24
              • Despite growth supermarkets continue to lose share of spending in the sector
                • Figure 4: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2013-19
              • Companies and brands
                • Tesco and Booker account for a quarter of the market
                  • Figure 5: Leading grocery retailers: Share of all grocery retail sales, 2018
                • M&S gets a new look as it aims for more big-basket shoppers
                  • Figure 6: M&S Clapham, November 2019
                • Tesco scores high on trust
                  • Figure 7: Key metrics for selected brands, October 2019
                • The consumer
                  • The number doing a ‘main shop’ only ticks up once more
                    • Figure 8: How grocery shoppers typically shop, 2015-19
                  • Supermarket use continues to fall
                    • Figure 9: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-19
                  • Over half of grocery shoppers use Tesco on a monthly basis
                    • Figure 10: Grocery retailers used, August 2019
                  • Sainsbury’s struggles to capture younger primary shoppers
                    • Figure 11: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by age, August 2019
                  • Own-brand crucial to differentiation…
                    • Figure 12: Attitudes towards own-brand, by age, August 2019
                  • …as are food counters
                    • Figure 13: Attitudes towards food counters in supermarkets, August 2019
                  • The debate between manned and self-service checkouts continues
                    • Food waste and plastic still key considerations
                      • Figure 14: Ethical considerations of grocery shoppers, by rank, August 2019
                    • Plastic reduction can improve the look of stores
                      • Figure 15: Attitudes towards packaging, recycling and dietary products, August 2019
                    • What we think
                    • Issues and Insights

                      • 2010-19: A review
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                            • 2030: The demographic and technological drivers of shopping behaviour
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • 2030: The channels and players that will succeed
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                        • Real incomes continue to grow but there is still uncertainty in the market
                                          • Spending on food and drink slowed in 2018
                                            • Supermarkets on track to record third consecutive year of growth in 2019
                                              • Despite growth supermarkets continue to lose share of spending in the sector
                                              • Market Drivers

                                                • Overall inflation steady as food and drink prices rise
                                                  • Figure 16: Food and drink inflation, September 2018-August 2019
                                                • Real incomes continue to grow
                                                  • Figure 17: Average weekly earnings, by consumer price index, January 2016-October 2019
                                                • Confidence rises in 2019 amid Brexit uncertainty
                                                  • Figure 18: Financial confidence tracker, January 2017-September 2019
                                                • Main cause of concern around Brexit is cost of living
                                                  • Figure 19: Consumer views on the impact of the EU referendum on the UK economy, September 2019
                                                • Number of homeowners increases
                                                  • Figure 20: UK household tenure status, 2013-18
                                              • Consumer Spending on Food and Drink

                                                • Spending on food and drink remains strong but slowing
                                                    • Figure 21: Consumer spending on core food and drink categories, 2014-19
                                                  • Food spending to slow
                                                      • Figure 22: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation in food, 2014-19
                                                    • Food spending breakdown
                                                        • Figure 23: Breakdown of consumer spending on food, 2018
                                                      • Spending on non-alcoholic drinks
                                                          • Figure 24: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation in non-alcoholic drinks, 2014-19
                                                        • Alcoholic drinks
                                                            • Figure 25: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation in alcoholic drinks, 2014-19
                                                            • Figure 26: Breakdown of value spending in the alcoholic drinks category, 2018
                                                        • Sector Size and Forecast

                                                          • Grocery sector continues to see steady growth
                                                            • Figure 27: All food retail sales (inc. VAT), 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 28: All food retail sales (inc. VAT) market size and forecast, at current and constant prices, 2014-24
                                                          • Supermarket sector size
                                                            • Figure 29: Supermarkets’ market size and forecast (inc. VAT), 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 30: Supermarkets: market size and forecast (inc. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2014-24
                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                          • Channels of Distribution

                                                            • Supermarkets still the dominant channel…
                                                              • Figure 31: Estimated channels of distribution for grocery retail sales, 2018
                                                            • …but large-format stores continue to lose share of spending
                                                                • Figure 32: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2013-19
                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                              • The number doing a ‘main shop’ only ticks up once more
                                                                • Supermarket use continues to fall
                                                                  • Over half of grocery shoppers use Tesco on a monthly basis
                                                                    • Sainsbury’s struggles to capture younger primary shoppers
                                                                      • Own-brand crucial to differentiation…
                                                                        • …as are food counters
                                                                          • The debate between manned and self-service checkouts continues
                                                                            • Food waste and plastic still key considerations
                                                                            • How They Shop

                                                                              • Nine in 10 are responsible for grocery shopping
                                                                                • The recent trend reversed
                                                                                  • Figure 33: How grocery shoppers typically shop, 2015-19
                                                                                • 25-44s’ habits show greatest change
                                                                                  • Figure 34: How grocery shoppers typically shop, by age, 2018 and 2019
                                                                                • If established is this a positive trend for supermarkets?
                                                                                  • Shopping behaviour is seasonal
                                                                                    • Figure 35: How grocery shoppers typically shop, by season, May 2016-March 2019
                                                                                • Types of Stores Used

                                                                                  • Supermarket use continues to edge downward
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-19
                                                                                  • Younger shoppers more likely to have shifted spend away
                                                                                    • Figure 37: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by age, August 2019
                                                                                  • Supermarkets hit by newer ways to shop
                                                                                      • Figure 38: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by parental status and age, August 2019
                                                                                      • Figure 39: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by lifestage and income, August 2019
                                                                                  • Retailers Shopped With

                                                                                      • Amazon wins more shoppers than ever
                                                                                        • Figure 40: Grocery retailers used, August 2019
                                                                                      • Asda struggles to attract top-up shoppers
                                                                                        • Figure 41: Trend of grocery retailers used, 2017-19
                                                                                      • Morrisons attracts more top-up shoppers
                                                                                        • Figure 42: Grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, August 2019
                                                                                      • Over a third shop at more than three stores a month
                                                                                        • Figure 43: Repertoire of secondary retailers used, August 2019
                                                                                      • Half of Lidl shoppers top up at Tesco
                                                                                        • Figure 44: Where leading retailers’ primary shoppers also shop, August 2019
                                                                                    • Retailer Demographic Comparison

                                                                                        • Tesco loses 25-44 primary shoppers
                                                                                          • Figure 45: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by age, August 2019
                                                                                        • Aldi attracts younger primary shoppers
                                                                                          • Figure 46: The discounters: primary and secondary shoppers, by age, August 2019
                                                                                        • Morrisons attracts urban shoppers
                                                                                          • Figure 47: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by location, August 2019
                                                                                        • Lidl and Aldi attract equal primary shoppers in London
                                                                                          • Figure 48: Leading retailers’ primary shoppers, by region, August 2019
                                                                                          • Figure 49: Leading retailers’ secondary shoppers, by region, August 2019
                                                                                        • Morrisons attracts the most lower-income households
                                                                                          • Figure 50: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by household income bracket, August 2019
                                                                                        • Discounters attract a more affluent shopper base
                                                                                          • Figure 51: Aldi and Lidl, primary and secondary grocery shoppers, by household income bracket, August 2019
                                                                                      • The Importance of Own-brand

                                                                                        • Over half think own-brand is a retailer’s defining feature
                                                                                          • Figure 52: Attitudes towards own-brand, by age, August 2019
                                                                                        • Aldi and Lidl’s impact on attitudes towards own-brand
                                                                                          • Tesco doubles down with Exclusively at Tesco
                                                                                            • Figure 53: Exclusively at Tesco private-label ranges, 2019
                                                                                            • Figure 54: New Sainsbury’s private-label ranges, 2019
                                                                                          • Just because it’s value doesn’t mean it has to look value
                                                                                            • Figure 55: Asda value chicken meatballs, 2014 versus 2019
                                                                                            • Figure 56: Morrisons value beef curry, 2012 versus 2019
                                                                                        • Food Counters and Added Services

                                                                                          • Differentiation key
                                                                                            • Food counters seen as a differentiator
                                                                                              • Figure 57: Attitudes towards food counters in supermarkets, August 2019
                                                                                              • Figure 58: Agreement with statements regarding food counters in supermarkets, by age, August 2019
                                                                                            • Non-foods and services create the multi-mission experience
                                                                                              • Figure 59: Behaviours towards non-foods and services in supermarkets, August 2019
                                                                                              • Figure 60: Behaviours towards non-foods and services in supermarkets, by format where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2019
                                                                                          • The Checkout Experience

                                                                                            • Most still use staffed tills at grocery stores
                                                                                              • Figure 61: Checkout behaviours of grocery shoppers, August 2019
                                                                                            • Modern developments and implications for the large-format sector
                                                                                              • Figure 62: Sainsbury’s Smartshop app in action, April 2019
                                                                                            • What does such tech mean for the supermarket checkout experience?
                                                                                            • Ethical Considerations in Grocery Shopping

                                                                                              • Food waste and plastic use still the key issues
                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Ethical considerations of grocery shoppers, by rank, August 2019
                                                                                                • Significant differences in opinion between the generations
                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Ethical considerations of grocery shoppers, any rank, by age, August 2019
                                                                                                  • The fight against plastics can lead to better in-store environments
                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Attitudes towards packaging, recycling and dietary products, August 2019
                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Pricing, Dietary Needs and Stockpiling

                                                                                                    • EDLP adds convenience but can lessen the excitement
                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Attitudes towards price and promotions at grocery retailers, August 2019
                                                                                                      • The rise of dietary demands
                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Attitudes towards dietary needs, August 2019
                                                                                                        • A fifth stockpiled products ahead of the October Brexit deadline
                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Stockpiling behaviours, August 2019
                                                                                                      • Leading Retailers – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                        • Tesco and Booker account for a quarter of the market
                                                                                                          • M&S gets a new look as it aims for more big-basket shoppers
                                                                                                            • Online usage being driven by existing users
                                                                                                              • Tesco scores highly on trust
                                                                                                              • Leading Retailers – Key Metrics

                                                                                                                  • Sales
                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Leading grocery retailers, net sales, 2014-18
                                                                                                                    • Stores
                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Leading grocery retailers: Store numbers, 2014-18
                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per outlet, 2014-18
                                                                                                                    • Sales areas and densities
                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Leading grocery retailers: Total sales area, 2014-18
                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per square metre, 2014-18
                                                                                                                    • Operating profits and margins
                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Leading grocery retailers: Operating profits, 2014-18
                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Leading grocery retailers: Operating margins, 2014-18
                                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                                    • Tesco increases its advantage over the other big four
                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Leading grocery retailers: Share of all grocery retail sales, 2018
                                                                                                                    • Market concentration drops in spite of acquisitions
                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Leading grocery retailers: Share of all grocery retail sales, 2014-19
                                                                                                                    • A note on our market share
                                                                                                                    • Online

                                                                                                                      • Online grocery usage is driven by existing customers
                                                                                                                        • Figure 78: Use of online grocery services, December 2018
                                                                                                                      • Continued growth of online grocery hangs on addressing negative experiences
                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Estimated breakdown of sector sales, by channel, 2013-19
                                                                                                                      • Issues encountered with online grocery shopping
                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Issues experienced with online grocery orders in the past year, December 2018
                                                                                                                      • Why consumers choose not to shop online
                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries, by previous experience of or interest in using online groceries services, December 2018
                                                                                                                      • Key players in the online grocery sector
                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Leading online grocery retailers’ estimated market shares (excluding VAT), 2018
                                                                                                                    • Space Allocation Summary

                                                                                                                      • Summary data and classifications
                                                                                                                          • Figure 83: Food, non-food standard classifications, 2019
                                                                                                                        • Hypermarkets convenience comparison overview
                                                                                                                          • Hypermarkets broadening their product and services offering to give customers more reasons to visit
                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: UK leading food retailers’ hypermarket store format: Convenience comparison overview split, November 2019
                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: McDonalds restaurant, Asda Supercentre, Watford, November 2019
                                                                                                                          • Detailed hypermarket convenience comparison split
                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: UK leading food retailers’ hypermarket store format: Convenience comparison detailed split, November 2019
                                                                                                                          • Superstores convenience comparison overview
                                                                                                                            • Bigger percentage share of in-store space allocated to convenience products
                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: UK leading food retailers’ superstore format: Convenience comparison overview split, November 2019
                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Wok Street, Sainsbury’s Superstore, Finchley Road, London, November 2019
                                                                                                                            • Detailed superstores convenience comparison split
                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: UK leading food retailers’ superstore format: Convenience comparison detailed split, November 2019
                                                                                                                            • Smaller supermarkets and discounters convenience comparison overview
                                                                                                                              • Food and drink products dominate
                                                                                                                                • Figure 90: UK leading food retailers’ smaller supermarkets and discounters: Convenience comparison overview split, November 2019
                                                                                                                              • Detailed smaller supermarkets and discounters comparison split
                                                                                                                                • Figure 91: UK leading food retailers’ smaller supermarkets and discounters: Convenience comparison detailed split, November 2019
                                                                                                                              • Food and drink categories split
                                                                                                                                • Figure 92: UK leading food retailers: food and drink categories as a percentage of total space allocated to food and drink, November 2019
                                                                                                                            • Retail Product Mix

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 93: Leading food retailers, estimated sales mix, 2018/19
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 94: Leading food retailers: category sales as a % of total sales, 2018
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 95: Leading food retailers, sales density by broad category, per sqm, 2018
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 96: Leading food retailers: estimated share of key product markets, 2018
                                                                                                                              • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                • Supermarkets drive forward their sustainability agendas
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 97: M&S vertical farming initiative with Infarm, 2019
                                                                                                                                • Payment services that help save time
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 98: M& ‘Mobile, Pay, Go’ service at its store in Clapham Junction, 2019
                                                                                                                                • Experiencing the supermarket in different ways
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 99: Aldi Local store in Balham, 2019
                                                                                                                                • Developments in delivery
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 100: Waitrose Rapid Deliver service, 2019
                                                                                                                                • Promoting health and wellness
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 101: Sainsbury’s ‘Unlock the Hero in You’ campaign, 2019
                                                                                                                                • Non-food innovations
                                                                                                                                  • Sustainability efforts
                                                                                                                                    • Extending the brand into non-food categories
                                                                                                                                    • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                      • Total sector advertising down 7.7% year-on-year in 2018
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 102: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, 2015-19*
                                                                                                                                      • Tesco is the sector’s biggest advertising spender
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 103: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure, by leading UK supermarket and online grocers, 2015-18
                                                                                                                                      • Advertising spend peaks around Christmas
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 104: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, by month, 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                                                      • TV accounts for the biggest percentage share of advertising spend
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 105: Percentage media type split of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarkets and online grocers, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                      • What we’ve seen so far in 2019
                                                                                                                                        • Tesco and Sainsbury’s celebrating anniversaries
                                                                                                                                          • Asda and Lidl focusing on quality and range
                                                                                                                                            • Co-op community-focused campaign
                                                                                                                                              • Ocado’s grocery delivery with no friction
                                                                                                                                                • Costcutter’s biggest summer campaign to date
                                                                                                                                                  • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                      • What we think
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                        • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: Key metrics for selected brands, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand attitudes: Tesco most trusted retailer
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Attitudes, by brand, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand personality: Co-op perceived to be more fun
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Brand personality – macro image, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                        • Ocado, Waitrose and M&S are the most stylish
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Brand personality – micro image, October 2019
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco the most trusted brand
                                                                                                                                                            • Sainsbury’s leads on style and being ethical out of big four
                                                                                                                                                              • Asda wins on accessibility over Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                                                                                • Morrisons joins Sainsbury’s in third place for reliable retailer
                                                                                                                                                                  • Aldi is accessible to customers
                                                                                                                                                                    • Co-op continues to be the most ethical
                                                                                                                                                                      • Lidl is more basic than rival Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                        • M&S styles it out with great customer service
                                                                                                                                                                          • Iceland offers great value for money
                                                                                                                                                                            • Waitrose’s perceived exclusivity wavers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Amazon’s innovativeness and uniqueness remain high
                                                                                                                                                                                • Ocado is perceived as exclusive and comes highly recommended
                                                                                                                                                                                • Aldi

                                                                                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Aldi to buy ‘Leader Price’ discounter from Casino
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Increasing transparency with a focus on sustainability
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Nord and Süd collaborate on own-brand sourcing
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Meeting individual market needs
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Aldi Nord evolving faster than ever
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 111: Aldi: estimated group sales performance, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 112: Aldi: outlet data: 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Asda Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 30-minute grocery delivery service
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Preparing to launch new membership-free cash & carry operation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Mobile app scan-and-pay trial to speed up the shopping process
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Helping shoppers spread the cost of shopping at a time of uncertainty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Expanded foodservice offering giving people more reasons to visit its stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Commitment to plastic reduction
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 114: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Co-operative Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Expanding on-demand delivery grocery service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ringing the changes in-store with the rollout of pay-in-aisle technology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • NUS deal an opportunity to build brand loyalty with the next generation of grocery shoppers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Useful services proposition gives consumers more reasons to visit its stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Expanded foodservice and food-to-go options
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Reducing plastics and improving the recyclability of its packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 115: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 116: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Iceland Foods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Accelerating retail park store format and continuing core high street refits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Exploring new channels to sell its food and expand customer base
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Unique new own-label food offering to drive footfall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Enhanced online shopping service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tackling the problem of plastic pollution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 117: Iceland Foods Ltd: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 118: Iceland Foods Ltd: Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • J Sainsbury

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sainsbury’s six new strategic priorities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sainsbury’s and Asda merger blocked by CMA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Integration of the Argos business remains challenging
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Digital update to Nectar loyalty scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Unmanned stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 119: J Sainsbury (UK): Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 120: J Sainsbury (UK): Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer (UK Food)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • A full online food delivery service for the first time
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Repurposing store estate will give more customers access to the full M&S Food range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tapping into new food trends with innovative products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • New value-for-money positioning to appeal to a wider audience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • In-store farming for exceptional freshness
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Upping the ante on its war on plastic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Incentivising customers to reduce food waste
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 121: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Group sales performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 122: Marks & Spencer (UK Food): Food outlets, by format, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 123: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ocado Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 50/50 joint venture with M&S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Future earnings potential of proprietary software and robotic infrastructure solutions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • On-demand grocery delivery service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Freshly harvested produce delivered within an hour
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Improving the shopping experience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 124: Ocado Group plc: Group financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 125: Ocado Group plc: Key performance metrics, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Schwarz Group (Lidl)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Lidl pushing online growth in more markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK anticipates online launch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kaufland seeking a road to recovery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lidl opens smallest store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Adapting to shopper trends
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 126: Schwarz Group: Group sales performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 127: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Spar International

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Maximising foodservice opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Positioned to capitalise on shopping locally and food provenance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Checkout-free shopping with scan, pay and go
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Rollout of healthy food product ranges across European markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tackling food waste and saving consumers money at the same time
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 128: Spar International: Selected Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales, by country, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 129: Spar International: Selected Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe stores, by country, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 130: Spar International: Selected Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales area, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dave Lewis decides to leave the business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco counter cost cuts expected to hit 9,000 jobs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Metro: simplifying store operations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • New Clubcard subscription service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Booker acquires Best Food Logistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco continues to invest in Jack’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Increased investment in Asia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Expanding F&F clothing range and performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 131: Tesco: Central Europe and Asia, like-for-like growth, Q1 2017/18-Q2 2019/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 132: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 133: Tesco plc, group outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Waitrose & Partners

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Radical management restructuring will bring Waitrose and John Lewis brands closer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Waitrose and John Lewis testing new joint loyalty scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • End of Ocado supply deal a blow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Expanded order fulfilment options offering greater flexibility and convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Upskilling food counter staff
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Unique at-home tasting experiences
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Taking action on plastics and food waste
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 134: Waitrose & Partners: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 135: Waitrose & Partners: Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • WM Morrison Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Breathing new life into its stores and loyalty scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Same-day online delivery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Capitalising on growth in convenience store sector through wholesale tie-ups
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Expanded own online shop delivery options
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Reducing plastic usage and minimising food waste
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 136: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 137: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Financial definitions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Detailed space allocation data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 138: UK leading food retailers hypermarket store format: detailed space allocation, November 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 139: UK leading food retailers superstore format: detailed space allocation, November 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 140: UK leading food retailers smaller supermarkets and discounters: detailed space allocation, November 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecast methodology

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