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“The COVID-19 outbreak will drive significant loss in value for the beauty market in 2020 as the lockdown period has not only limited retail sales, but has also affected usage habits. Whilst some categories such as skincare will see growth, this won’t be enough to offset losses in other sectors. Indeed categories like colour cosmetics and fragrances will take longer to recover, as the recession will mean that price sensitivity will fuel the popularity of masstige brands and cause a shift in purchase behaviours. The crisis will also accelerate the trend towards transparency, as health and safety concerns remain paramount for consumers going forward. The in-store experience will also be transformed, and retailers and brands will need to find new methods for trial and sampling.”
- Roshida Khanom, Category Director Beauty and Personal Care, 10th June 2020

This report will look at the following areas:

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumers.
  • How COVID-19 has already affected BPC.
  • The shift in consumer behaviours in BPC in the short, medium and long term.
  • Lessons from the last economic recession.
  • Lessons from other markets outside the UK.

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Products covered in this Report
        • Executive Summary

            • Short, medium and long-term impact
              • Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the beauty and personal care market, short, medium and long-term, 10th June 2020
            • Opportunities and Threats
              • An emotional need for community and co-operation
                • Figure 2: Olay virtual beauty appointments, May 2020
              • Scientific expertise is back in fashion…
                • …and the crisis will reinforce growing environmental concerns
                  • Centring on self-care rather than indulgence
                    • Impact on the market
                      • Severe disruptions in 2020….
                        • Figure 3: UK central forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, 2015-2025
                      • …and a long road to recovery
                        • Figure 4: UK value sales of the beauty and personal care market, 2015-2025
                      • How the crisis will affect key consumer segments
                        • Overall BPC sees a net decline in spend
                          • Figure 5: Changes in spending habits on BPC, 26 March to 3 June 2020
                        • Key consumer segments
                          • 16-24s will cut back on spending
                            • Figure 6: Changing spending intentions on BPC, by age and gender, 28 May – 3 June 2020
                          • Priorities will shift for women
                            • Over-65s will have less reason to invest in BPC
                              • Consumers will look to brands that helped the effort
                                • Figure 7: Dove courage is beautiful, April 2020
                              • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
                                • Unemployment will impact discretionary spend
                                  • Figure 8: Birchbox, April 2020
                                • Masstige brands offer a new price tier
                                  • Impact on the marketing mix
                                    • The way consumers shop will change
                                      • Marketing needs to emphasise community and mutual support
                                        • Clean beauty will evolve
                                          • COVID-19: UK context
                                          • The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers

                                            • Anxiety levels align with case curve...
                                                • Figure 9: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety index, 28 February – 3 June 2020
                                              • … but consumers remain anxious about their health
                                                  • Figure 10: People’s level of concerns about the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, 28 February – 3 June 2020
                                                • COVID-19 concerns by demographics
                                                    • Figure 11: Proportion of consumers showing the highest degree of concern (4 or 5 out of 5) regarding the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, by age, 28 February – 3 June 2020
                                                  • UK begins to soften lockdown measures
                                                      • Figure 12: Government COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy, published 11 May 2020
                                                    • Lockdown fears moderate
                                                        • Figure 13: People’s level of concerns about how the outbreak might affect their lifestyle, 28 February - 3 June
                                                      • A bleak outlook for the economy
                                                          • Figure 14: Consumer views on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the UK economy and their own finances, 28 May – 3 June 2020
                                                        • Consumers cut back outgoings, and add to savings
                                                            • Figure 15: How consumers have been affected or changed their behaviour as a result of the outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
                                                          • Household finances hold steady for most
                                                              • Figure 16: changes in financial situation since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
                                                            • COVID-19 is yet to meaningfully affect most households’ well-being…
                                                                • Figure 17: The financial well-being index, January 2015-May 2020
                                                              • …but confidence for the year ahead plummets
                                                                  • Figure 18: Consumers’ financial confidence for the coming year, May 2020
                                                                • Middle age groups feel particularly vulnerable…
                                                                  • …and self-employed respondents show the importance of the COVID-19 support package
                                                                  • How COVID-19 Has Already Affected BPC

                                                                    • Consumers are reporting a fall in planned spending …
                                                                      • Figure 19: Changes in spending habits on BPC, 26 March to 3 June 2020
                                                                    • …however some are starting to cut back
                                                                      • Figure 20: Changing spending intentions on BPC, by age and gender, 28 May – 3 June 2020
                                                                    • Companies prepare for the impact
                                                                      • Retail inventory builds up
                                                                        • BPC companies help the COVID-19 effort
                                                                            • Figure 21: LVMH Maisons product face masks and gowns, April 2020
                                                                            • Figure 22: Estée Lauder surgical mask donation, March 2020
                                                                          • Businesses come together
                                                                            • Trade shows and launches postponed
                                                                              • Figure 23: KKW Beauty launch delay, March 2020
                                                                          • Which Behaviours Will Change in the Short-term?

                                                                            • Consumers seek to prevent and protect in BPC
                                                                              • Figure 24: Changes in hygiene related behaviours as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28 February-16 April
                                                                            • Stockpiling essentials
                                                                              • Figure 25: Changes in behaviour regarding stocking up and buying online as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28 February-16 April
                                                                            • Online buying raises ethical issues
                                                                              • Figure 26: Bloom & Wild letterbox size packages, September 2019
                                                                            • Influencers will see a backlash
                                                                              • Figure 27: Hershesons consultations, May 2020
                                                                            • Focus on skincare
                                                                              • Figure 28: Frequency of beauty activities since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 23 April to 7 May 2020
                                                                              • Figure 29: Touchland hand sanitiser, 2019
                                                                            • DIY beauty sees a rise
                                                                              • Figure 30: Katherine daniels at-home facials, May 2020
                                                                            • Beauty routines offer a sense of calm
                                                                              • Figure 31: Reasons for doing more BPC activities since the COVID-19 outbreak, 23 April to 7 May 2020
                                                                            • Priorities are shifting
                                                                              • Figure 32: Reasons for doing fewer BPC activities since the COVID-19 outbreak, 23 April to 7 May 2020
                                                                              • Figure 33: Feelunique makeup offers, May 2020
                                                                            • The collapse of travel markets will hit sales
                                                                              • Figure 34: Beauty routines before a holiday, August 2017
                                                                          • Which Behaviours Will Change in the Medium-term?

                                                                            • Heightened focus on hygiene
                                                                              • Packaging and format can allay concerns
                                                                                • Figure 35: Clé de Peau Beauté radiant cushion foundation refill, 2019
                                                                                • Figure 36: Examples of waterless and stick formats in BPC, 2019
                                                                              • Drive for transparency
                                                                                • Time for tech to shine
                                                                                  • Figure 37: Participation in online beauty/grooming activities, August 2019
                                                                                • Consumers will seek mindful self-care
                                                                                  • Figure 38: Revlon self-care Sunday, May 2020
                                                                              • Which Behaviours Will Change in the Long-term?

                                                                                • Eco-concerns will be heightened
                                                                                  • Figure 39: Important factors for an eco-friendly BPC brand or product, November 2019
                                                                                • The fashion industry is finding innovative ways of highlighting ecological credentials
                                                                                  • Figure 40: Allbirds carbon footprint, April 2020
                                                                                • Safety concerns will accelerate some trends
                                                                                  • Lab-grown ingredients will be the new norm
                                                                                    • Figure 41: Interest in BPC ingredients, April 2020
                                                                                    • Figure 42: Biossance marine algae eye cream, 2020
                                                                                  • Clean beauty will evolve
                                                                                    • Figure 43: Index of Google searches for ‘sensitive skin’, 19th May 2019-10th May 2020
                                                                                  • Expertise will be sought after
                                                                                    • Figure 44: Labmuffinbeautyscience, May 2020
                                                                                  • The shopping experience will be transformed
                                                                                    • Brands can gamify the shopping experience
                                                                                      • Figure 45: Drest Christian Louboutin challenge, May 2020
                                                                                  • What Can We Learn from Previous Slowdowns?

                                                                                    • BPC fared well during the previous recession
                                                                                      • Discretionary sectors will take longer to recover
                                                                                        • Figure 46: Birchbox, April 2020
                                                                                      • The COVID-19 after-effects will compound the impact of the recession
                                                                                        • Savvy shopping behaviours will be revived
                                                                                          • Another recession, another indie brand boom
                                                                                          • Lessons from Other Markets

                                                                                            • Life gets back to normal in China
                                                                                              • Figure 47: Grocery shopping channel in the last one month, 28th February-1st April, 2020
                                                                                            • Community feel is high
                                                                                              • Lessons for BPC
                                                                                                • Eye makeup will be the ‘lipstick effect’ post COVID-19
                                                                                                  • Livestream channels boosted online shopping in China

                                                                                                  About the report

                                                                                                  This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                  • The Consumer

                                                                                                    What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                  • The Competitors

                                                                                                    Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                  • The Market

                                                                                                    Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                  • The Innovations

                                                                                                    New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                  • The Opportunities

                                                                                                    Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                  • The Trends

                                                                                                    What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                  Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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