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Description

Description

“Few industries have been more closely entwined with the COVID-19 pandemic than food and drink retailing. In mid-March as the crisis quickly escalated, consumers flocked to supermarkets to stock up on groceries and other essentials, stressing the supply chain and emptying shelves in many staple categories. Since then grocery retailers and suppliers have done their best to keep shelves stocked and have taken significant steps to keep shoppers and employees as safe as possible."
– John Owen, Associate Director, Food and Retail

This Report will cover the following areas:

  • Food dollars shift from foodservice to grocery retail
  • Shoppers shift from spontaneity to stocking up
  • Grocers work to meet demand, keep shoppers, employees safe
  • Supply chain disruptions remain an issue
  • More grocery shoppers go online, or try

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Introduction

    • Analyst perspective: COVID-19 and Food and Drink Retailing
      • Definitions
        • Key Takeaways
          • Short term: sales spikes and rapid adjustments for shoppers and retailers
            • Medium term: marching forward into uncertainty
              • Longer term:
                  • Figure 1: Impact of COVID-19 on the grocery retailing category, June 2020
              • The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers

                • Food dollars shift from foodservice to grocery retail
                    • Figure 2: Changes in spending habits due to coronavirus, April-June 2020
                  • Shoppers shift from spontaneity to stocking up
                    • Grocers work to meet demand, keep shoppers, employees safe
                      • Supply chain disruptions remain an issue
                        • More grocery shoppers go online, or try
                          • Figure 3: Grocery shopping methods, February 2020
                        • After a brief dip, ecommerce gains share
                          • Figure 4: Total ecommerce share of omni-channel food/drink sales, January-May 2020
                        • Retailers, delivery services expand capacity
                            • Figure 5: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – online shopping, April-June 2020
                          • Long-term success for ecommerce may hinge on shopper satisfaction during pandemic
                            • Figure 6: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more, by shopping method and online shopping frequency, February 2020
                          • On a mission: limiting time spent in-store
                            • Figure 7: Coronavirus behaviors, April 2020
                          • Lessons from other regions
                            • Mintel Global Trend Drivers
                              • Figure 8: Mintel Global Trend Drivers
                            • Wellbeing: Yearning for emotional comfort will give way to focus on physical health
                              • Experiences: The thrill is gone, at least for now
                                • Technology: A shift from convenience to safety
                                  • Value: Stocking up will give way to cutting back
                                    • Identity: An opportunity for grocery retailers to go local
                                    • The Impact of COVID-19 on the Center Store

                                      • The state of the market before COVID-19
                                        • Only minimal growth for center store as a whole
                                          • A renaissance in the freezer case
                                            • Stagnating sales in some big shelf-stable categories
                                              • Figure 9: Total retail sales of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-19
                                            • Forecast: A return to slower growth after pandemic-driven boost
                                              • Figure 10: Total retail sales and forecast of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                            • Short-term changes in the center store
                                              • A focal point for stocking up
                                                • Emphasis on comfort
                                                  • Meeting consumer needs
                                                    • Medium-term changes in the center store
                                                      • Continued focus on safety will limit trip frequency
                                                        • A renewed focus on value in a post-COVID-19 recession will bolster the center store
                                                          • Meeting consumer needs
                                                            • Longer-term changes in the center store
                                                              • Maintaining momentum in the freezer case
                                                                • Meeting consumer needs
                                                                • The Impact of COVID-19 on the Perimeter

                                                                  • The state of the market before COVID-19
                                                                    • Steady modest growth for the perimeter amid increased competition
                                                                      • Grocers place emphasis on prepared foods
                                                                        • Value-added fresh products appeal to interest in convenience and health
                                                                          • Opportunity to make local a point of difference
                                                                            • Adding convenience to fresh
                                                                              • Perimeter remains a focal point for shopper engagement and loyalty
                                                                                • Figure 11: Attitudes toward the perimeter – any agree, June 2019
                                                                              • Forecast: Overall perimeter sales to remain elevated into 2021
                                                                                • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                              • Forecast: Wide variance across perimeter departments
                                                                                • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                              • Short-term changes in the perimeter
                                                                                • Pandemic brings volatility to perimeter departments
                                                                                  • Meeting consumer needs
                                                                                    • Medium-term changes in the perimeter
                                                                                      • Significant supply chain challenges trigger shortages and price increases
                                                                                        • Meeting consumer needs
                                                                                          • Longer-term changes in the perimeter
                                                                                            • Health will remain a key draw, but return to experiential shopping may lag
                                                                                              • Meeting consumer needs
                                                                                              • The Impact of COVID-19 on Private Label

                                                                                                • The state of the market before COVID-19
                                                                                                  • Store brands strengthen their position in an increasingly competitive market
                                                                                                    • Private label purchase trending upward before pandemic
                                                                                                      • Figure 14: Store brand purchase behavior, by age, November 2019
                                                                                                    • An increasingly positive view of store brands positions them for further growth
                                                                                                      • Figure 15: Consumer opinions of store brands versus name brands, any agree, November 2019
                                                                                                    • Forecast: Private label growth to accelerate in recession
                                                                                                      • Figure 16: Private label share and forecast of total multi-outlet food and drink sales, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                    • Short-term changes for private label
                                                                                                      • Brand loyalty takes a back seat, creating opening for store brands
                                                                                                        • Meeting consumer needs
                                                                                                          • Medium-term changes for private label
                                                                                                            • The need to economize will continue to drive private label growth
                                                                                                              • Figure 17: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-May 2020
                                                                                                            • Lessons from the previous recession: food at home held steady, private label gained
                                                                                                              • Figure 18: Consumer spending on food at home, monthly, 2006-10
                                                                                                              • Figure 19: Consumer spending on food away from home, monthly, 2006-10
                                                                                                            • Meeting consumer needs
                                                                                                              • Longer-term changes for private label
                                                                                                                • Beyond price, a strategic platform for retailers
                                                                                                                  • Meeting consumer needs
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market

                                                                                                                              • Figure 20: Total retail sales of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: Total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24

                                                                                                                          About the report

                                                                                                                          This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                          • The Consumer

                                                                                                                            What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                          • The Competitors

                                                                                                                            Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                          • The Market

                                                                                                                            Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                          • The Innovations

                                                                                                                            New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                          • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                            Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                          • The Trends

                                                                                                                            What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                          Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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