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Description

Description

“Restaurants are in the business of bringing people together, making it even more difficult for operators to weather this storm. Pre-COVID-19, restaurant industry sales were set to outpace at-home food spending, new restaurants were opening at a rapid pace and operators were challenged by a labor shortage to find and retain workers. In a few short weeks, the global pandemic turned the industry on its head, forcing a complete reset.”
– Amanda Topper, Associate Director of Foodservice Research

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • Scope
      • Definition
        • Economic assumptions
          • COVID-19: US context
          • Executive Summary

            • Analyst perspective: flexibility during the pandemic will help operators survive during COVID-19 and beyond
              • Overview
                • Key takeaways
                  • Short-, medium- and longer-term impacts
                    • Figure 1: Impact of COVID-19 on the foodservice industry, June 2020
                  • Market performance and sales forecast
                    • Figure 2: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
                  • Foodservice performance
                  • Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers

                    • The priority has shifted to at-home food
                        • Figure 3: COVID-19 spending priorities, April-June 2020
                      • The return to normalcy is a patchwork quilt
                          • Figure 4: Future activities, going to a restaurant, by age, May 28-June 4, 2020
                        • Mintel Trend Drivers
                          • Figure 5: Mintel Trends Drivers
                        • Identity: restaurants are woven into the fabric of communities
                          • Surroundings: independents and chains can emphasize their local impact
                            • Experiences: memorable meals make repeat customers
                              • Rights: diners expect restaurants to keep them safe
                                • Technology: online ordering connects diners and restaurants, on-premise and off
                                  • Value: barbell menus offer something for every budget
                                    • Wellbeing: consumers are creatures of comfort but can be nudged toward healthier habits
                                    • How a COVID-19 Recession Will Impact Foodservice

                                      • Unprecedented sales losses expected
                                        • Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2014-24
                                        • Figure 7: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                      • US unemployment reaches levels not seen since Great Depression
                                        • Figure 8: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-May 2020
                                      • Dining out is among the first nonessentials to go
                                        • Figure 9: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, November 2019
                                        • Figure 10: Consumer spending on food away from home, monthly, 2006-10
                                        • Figure 11: Consumer spending on food away from home, annual, 2000-19 and Q1 2020
                                    • State of the Foodservice Category Before COVID-19

                                      • Shifts to off-premise were already in play
                                        • Figure 12: Restaurant delivery and pickup in the past three months, June 2016, September 2018 and September 2019
                                      • Consumers were visiting fine dining restaurants more often year over year
                                        • Figure 13: Year over year change in restaurant visitation, November 2019
                                      • Family midscales viewed as old-fashioned and generic
                                        • Casual dining struggles with value perceptions
                                          • Figure 14: Reasons for dining at casual dining restaurants less often, November 2019
                                        • Tech innovations were a well-timed enhancement for LSRs
                                          • Figure 15: Fast food dining behaviors year over year – More often, by generation, February 2020
                                        • Blurring and stolen share among LSRs
                                          • Figure 16: Percentage share of Top 200 limited service restaurant sales, by segment, 2017-18*
                                      • Short-term changes in the foodservice industry

                                          • Figure 17: Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, June 2020
                                        • Creativity helps delivery/takeout ramp up quickly
                                          • Figure 18: Change in takeout and delivery frequency, March & April 2020
                                          • Figure 19: Little Caesars TV campaign, March 2020
                                        • Brands pivot to provide consumers value and new experiences at home
                                          • Kids meals and family promos head home
                                            • Figure 20: Family dining email promotions, March & April 2020
                                          • Menus scale down while comfort food trends up
                                          • Medium-term changes in the foodservice industry

                                              • Figure 21: Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, June 2020
                                            • Food safety and sanitation measures will help diners’ comfort level
                                              • It’s all about value
                                                • Independents feel the love
                                                  • Figure 22: Restaurant attitudes – NET agree, by generation, April 2020
                                              • Longer-term changes in the foodservice industry

                                                  • Figure 23: Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, June 2020
                                                • The US restaurant industry will be much smaller
                                                  • Employee and community initiatives stay front and center
                                                    • Figure 24: Restaurant attitudes – NET agree, by generation, April 2020
                                                    • Figure 25: Popeyes TV campaign, April 2020
                                                  • Off-premise dining will be even more mainstream
                                                    • Greater competition and restrictions for third-party delivery companies
                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                      • Data sources
                                                        • Sales data
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Consumer qualitative research
                                                              • Direct marketing creative
                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                • Appendix – Market Data

                                                                    • Figure 26: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                • Appendix – Consumer Data

                                                                    • Figure 27: Change in fast casual visitation, February 2020
                                                                    • Figure 28: Fast casual visitation drivers, February 2020
                                                                    • Figure 29: Fast casual visitation barriers, February 2020

                                                                About the report

                                                                This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                • The Consumer

                                                                  What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                • The Competitors

                                                                  Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                • The Market

                                                                  Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                • The Innovations

                                                                  New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                • The Opportunities

                                                                  Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                • The Trends

                                                                  What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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