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UK Bakeries and Dessert Shops: Incl Impact of COVID-19 Market Report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Bakeries and Dessert Shops: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - UK market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

COVID-19 is likely to deal fatal blows to some bakeries and dessert shops, especially those that were already struggling to stay afloat before the pandemic. And yet, COVID-19 will spur innovation within this sector. More brand collaborations can be expected as food operators unlock opportunities to combine resources and tap into consumer needs during the COVID-19 crisis, including partnering with takeaway brands that do not have a dessert menu.

All reports purchased from the Mintel Store now come with free access to our COVID-19 Global Insights Hub, allowing you to understand how industries and consumer behaviour is changing worldwide.


What does the COVID-19 Global Insights Hub give you access to?

  • Over 450 pieces of research (with more published each week) addressing markets across the globe.
  • Discover how people in countries at different stages of the crisis are adjusting to the 'new normal'.
  • Trending industries which have seen growth due to the changes in circumstance.
  • Our latest consumer research surveys, allowing you to see customers views right now.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Trish Caddy, a leading analyst in the Foodservice sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

As hunkering down at home becomes a new way of life, more bakeries and dessert shops should expand into home delivery or partner with takeaway brands that do not have a dessert menu to cater to those wanting to enjoy special treats at home. Trish Caddy
Senior Foodservice Analyst

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What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Products covered in this Report
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • All areas of the eating out market will be severely hit in 2020
                • Figure 1: Forecast value of the UK foodservice market (adjusted for COVID-19 on 29 May 2020), 2019-24
              • The impact of COVID-19 on bakeries and dessert shops
                • Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on bakeries and dessert shops, in short, medium and long term, 29 May 2020
              • Companies and brands
                • Multiples lead the bakery segment
                  • Figure 3: Number of bakeries and dessert restaurants/shops, May 2019
                • The consumer
                  • More Brits visit bakeries than dessert venues
                    • Figure 4: Frequency of visiting bakeries or dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                  • Everyone loves a sausage roll
                    • Figure 5: Most popular items bought from bakeries, February 2020
                  • Coffee drives sales in dessert shops
                    • Figure 6: Most popular items bought from dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                  • Opportunities in home baking
                    • Figure 7: Barriers to usage of bakeries or dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                  • Make every day feel like a decadent treat
                    • Figure 8: Bakery or dessert restaurant/shop preferences, February 2020
                  • Price is driving purchase decisions
                    • Figure 9: Bakery or dessert restaurant/shop purchase drivers, February 2020
                  • Wholesome desserts that taste like “the real thing”
                    • Figure 10: Most popular attributes of desserts from a dessert restaurant/shop, February 2020
                  • Use social media positively to brighten mood
                    • Figure 11: Attitudes towards bakeries or dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                  • What we think
                  • The Impact of COVID-19 on Bakeries and Dessert Shops

                    • Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
                      • Figure 12: Expected impact of COVID-19 on bakeries and dessert shops, in short, medium and long-term, 29 May 2020
                    • Short-term
                      • Medium-term
                        • Long-term
                          • Opportunities and threats
                            • Temporary full closure
                              • Some failures will be inevitable
                                • Boom in home baking
                                  • Pivot to home delivery
                                    • Impact on the bakeries and dessert shops market
                                      • All areas of the eating out market will be severely hit in 2020
                                        • Figure 13: Forecast value of the UK foodservice market (adjusted for COVID-19 on 20 May 2020), 2019-24
                                      • Consumer demand is likely to recover gradually
                                        • Receiving financial aid …
                                          • … and giving back
                                            • How the crisis will affect key consumer segments
                                              • 16-44 year olds holding up takeaway spend
                                                • Figure 14: Expectations for takeaways/home delivery spending over the next month, 14-21 May 2020
                                              • Family and friends are most important to Britons
                                                  • Figure 15: Activities consumers are looking forward to most, April 2020
                                                • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
                                                  • Eating out-of-home performs poorly in a recession
                                                    • Figure 16: Consumer spending priorities over the past year (indicative score), May 2010
                                                  • Impact on the marketing mix
                                                    • Price: tiered pricing structures
                                                      • Promotion: rethinking packaging and hygiene
                                                        • Place: express and kiosk formats
                                                          • COVID-19: UK context
                                                          • Issues and Insights

                                                            • Alternative menu choices
                                                              • The facts
                                                                • The implications
                                                                  • New ways of enjoying desserts
                                                                    • The facts
                                                                      • The implications
                                                                        • The future of healthy baked goods and desserts
                                                                          • The facts
                                                                            • The implications
                                                                            • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                              • Some failures inevitable
                                                                                • Pivot to home delivery
                                                                                  • Calorie reduction remains in the spotlight
                                                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                                                    • Calorie reduction remains in the spotlight
                                                                                      • Bakery consumers driven by value for money
                                                                                        • Figure 17: Value trend drivers, by frequency of visiting bakeries, February 2020
                                                                                      • Dessert diners seek out nostalgic experiences
                                                                                        • Figure 18: Experiences trend drivers, by frequency of visiting dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                                                                                    • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                      • Multiples lead the bakery segment
                                                                                        • COVID-19 spurs meal kit innovation
                                                                                          • Adspend in 2019 increased by 195% over the previous year
                                                                                          • Market Share

                                                                                              • Greggs leads the bakery segment
                                                                                                • Figure 19: Number of bakeries and dessert restaurants/shops, May 2019
                                                                                              • Cake Box brings eggless cake to market
                                                                                                • Figure 20: Outlet numbers* of selected bakeries and dessert restaurants/shops, 2019
                                                                                              • The rise of dessert bars
                                                                                                • Gourmet doughnuts drive bakeries forward
                                                                                                • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                  • COVID-19 spurs innovation
                                                                                                    • Delivering groceries
                                                                                                      • Delivering meal kits
                                                                                                        • Brand collaborations
                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                          • Adspend in 2019 increased by 195% over the previous year
                                                                                                            • Figure 21: Advertising expenditure, by selected bakeries and dessert shops, 2015-19
                                                                                                          • Greggs’ vegan sausage roll launch a standout campaign
                                                                                                            • Figure 22: Advertising expenditure, by selected bakeries and dessert shops, by media type, 2015-19
                                                                                                          • Krispy Kreme gets quirky
                                                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, February 2020
                                                                                                                • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Key metrics for selected brands, February 2020
                                                                                                                • Brand attitudes: Creams Café’s dessert experience is worth paying more for
                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Attitudes, by brand, February 2020
                                                                                                                • Brand personality: Greggs most accessible but not as fun as the others
                                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Brand personality – macro image, February 2020
                                                                                                                • Greggs most welcoming and friendly, but least cool
                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Brand personality – micro image, February 2020
                                                                                                                • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                  • Greggs is the most loved brand
                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: User profile of Greggs, February 2020
                                                                                                                  • Creams Café has a youthful image
                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: User profile of Creams Café, February 2020
                                                                                                                  • Muffin Break lacks uniqueness
                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: User profile of Muffin Break, February 2020
                                                                                                                  • Cake Box’s customers are most satisfied
                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: User profile of Cake Box, February 2020
                                                                                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                  • More Brits visit bakeries than dessert venues
                                                                                                                    • Everyone loves a sausage roll
                                                                                                                      • Coffee the main sales driver in dessert shops
                                                                                                                        • Opportunities in home baking
                                                                                                                          • Make every day feel like a decadent treat
                                                                                                                            • Price is driving purchase decisions
                                                                                                                              • Wholesome desserts that taste like “the real thing”
                                                                                                                                • Consumers’ need for tailored dessert choices
                                                                                                                                • Frequency of Visits

                                                                                                                                    • More Brits visit bakeries than dessert venues
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Frequency of visiting bakeries or dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                                                                                                                                    • 16-24 year olds the biggest overall users
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Frequency of visiting bakeries or dessert restaurants/shops, by age groups, February 2020
                                                                                                                                  • Most Popular Items Bought from Bakeries

                                                                                                                                    • Most buy cakes/baked goods from bakeries
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Items bought from bakeries, February 2020
                                                                                                                                      • Everyone loves a sausage roll
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Most popular items bought from bakeries, February 2020
                                                                                                                                    • Most Popular Items Bought from Dessert Restaurants/Shops

                                                                                                                                      • Offer drinks with dessert menu items
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Most popular items bought from dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                                                                                                                                      • But first, coffee
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Most popular items bought from dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                                                                                                                                        • Under-45s like it hot
                                                                                                                                          • Frequent visitors keeping their cool
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Items bought at dessert restaurants/shops, by frequency of visiting dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                                                                                                                                        • Barriers to Usage

                                                                                                                                          • Strict about sweets
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Barriers to usage of bakeries or dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                                                                                                                                          • Opportunities in home baking
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Examples of bakery-branded supermarket ranges
                                                                                                                                        • Bakery or Dessert Restaurant/Shop Preferences

                                                                                                                                          • Looks too good to eat
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Bakery or dessert restaurant/shop preferences, February 2020
                                                                                                                                          • Make every day feel like a decadent treat
                                                                                                                                          • Bakery or Dessert Restaurant/Shop Purchase Drivers

                                                                                                                                            • Price is driving purchase decisions
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Bakery or dessert restaurant/shop purchase drivers, February 2020
                                                                                                                                            • Most Popular Attributes of Desserts

                                                                                                                                              • Wholesome desserts that taste like “the real thing”
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Most popular attributes of desserts from a dessert restaurant/shop, February 2020
                                                                                                                                              • Building better wellbeing
                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes towards Bakeries or Dessert Restaurants/ Shops

                                                                                                                                                • Helping consumers to find enjoyment in eating alone
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Attitudes towards bakeries or dessert restaurants/shops, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                • Video chat-based dining occasions
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Example of special occasion doughnuts, by Krispy Kreme (UK)
                                                                                                                                                • Use social media positively to brighten mood
                                                                                                                                                  • Millennials’ need for tailored dessert choices – CHAID analysis
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Bakeries and dessert shops/restaurants – CHAID – Tree output, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                        • CHAID analysis methodology
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Bakeries and dessert shops/restaurants – CHAID – Table output, February 2020

                                                                                                                                                      About the report

                                                                                                                                                      This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                        What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                                                      • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                                        Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                                                      • The Market

                                                                                                                                                        Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                                                      • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                                        New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                                                      • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                        Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                                                      • The Trends

                                                                                                                                                        What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                      Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

                                                                                                                                                      Description