Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept & Close

UK Bread market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Bread market, its consumers and the major players who make up that market.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

  • What are the key challenges facing the industry?
  • Who is the consumer and what do they want?
  • Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Market

Point of sale market data

In conjunction with IRi, extensive point of sale data shows you what consumers are spending their money on

Market Size

How big is the market today and what is our 5 year forecast? Includes both best & worst case scenarios

Market Segmentation

What are the different segments within the market and how are those individual segments performing?

Consumer

Consumer behaviors

What are consumers looking for, what drives their buying habits and what are their main purchase influencers?

Demographic breakdown

From iGen & Millennials to Baby Boomers & beyond. Who is spending money and what are they spending it on?

Representative sample

We gather our data from real-world consumers, selected to accurately reflect precise global demographics

Players

Company strategy

What are the key players doing, what has been successful for them and what was their marketing spend?

Product innovation

Using data from our Global New Product Database, what products were launched and how well were they perceived?

Opportunities

What happens next, which areas are likely to experience growth and what opportunities exist within the market?

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

Bread

Mintel’s definition follows the classification used in the baking industry, and includes a wide variety of both traditional British products and other breads not of UK origin.

Traditional British breads include: white, brown and wholemeal, which may be sliced or unsliced, wrapped or unwrapped. A distinction is drawn between bread that is baked by plant/factory bakeries and stocked on grocery shelves (also called pre-packed bread), and bread that is baked by in-store bakers. Part-baked products are also included. Please see the Appendix for further information on the definition of bread.

Speciality bread

For the purposes of this Report, the speciality bread market is taken to include: bagels, baguettes, pittas, wraps, chapattis, naan breads, panini and garlic bread (brown, seeded, white and chilled).

Sweet baked goods are excluded from this report

What you need to know

A basket staple, usage of bread is almost universal, at 97%. However, bread consumption has been in long-term decline owing to trends for low carbohydrate diets, concerns about gluten and the rise in alternatives at key occasions such as breakfast and lunch, denting demand.

Yet volume sales are up (slightly) in 2018, even in pre-packed bread, the dominant segment. This has been driven by the success of ‘bread with bits’ or seeded varieties, which are tapping into the healthy eating and foodie trends and giving consumers a reason to pay more.

Indeed, bread prices are rising for the second year running, with rising wheat and manufacturing costs and a reduction in the number of promotions by the major supermarkets all having an upward influence. However, given the role of bread as an important item in the weekly shop, retailers will do their best to keep prices down for consumers going forward.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Amy Price, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

That only a minority of consumers care about good value for most occasions when they eat bread reflects the relatively small role of bread in the overall food budget. This shows the scope for operators in this market to compete on factors other than price, exploring added value attributes to encourage consumers to trade up.Amy Price
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

What you get

What's included

Why buy from us?

Succeed

Our reports will provide you with market data, consumer research and competitive intelligence to succeed in your market.

Instant Access

Buy now and you'll have instant access to the information you need to make the right decisions.

Opportunities

Find out what's next in the markets that matter to you: where opportunities lie and what challenges you will face.

Trusted

A business Superbrand, Mintel is a source you can trust. We have been defining and refining the Market Intelligence mix since 1972.

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
        • Bread
          • Speciality bread
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Bread value and volume sales are up in 2018
                  • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
                • White leads in pre-packed bread, but bread with bits fuels growth
                  • Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2017 and 2018
                • Chilled garlic bread and Indian breads see strong growth
                  • Bread struggles as people strive to eat healthily
                    • Companies and brands
                      • Warburtons retains the lead in pre-packed bread, Hovis grows
                        • Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value, 2017/18*
                      • Warburtons sales fall in speciality bread and rolls, own-label steams ahead
                        • Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2017/18*
                      • Own-label leads NPD after ramping up activity
                        • An increase in premium claims as artisan trend takes hold
                          • Tapping into health trends by communicating fibre and protein content
                            • Bread makers increase adspend in 2017
                              • Warburtons solicits greatest commitment
                                • The consumer
                                  • Bread buying is almost universal
                                    • Figure 5: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, July 2018
                                  • Nutritional benefits interest 34%
                                    • Figure 6: Interest in innovation, July 2018
                                  • Convenience, value for money and health are of most importance
                                    • Figure 7: Correspondence Analysis of qualities sought for when buying bread, by occasion, July 2018
                                  • Packed lunches seen to save you time by 82% of workers
                                    • Figure 8: Attitudes towards bread, July 2018
                                  • Variety appeals to bread users with 66% switching between products
                                    • Figure 9: Behaviours related to bread, July 2018
                                  • What we think
                                  • Issues and Insights

                                    • While there is clearly a space for healthy bread, not everyone is prioritising health
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • A focus on green credentials would allow bread makers to chime with current consumer sentiment
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                                • Promoting time saved can help packed lunches appeal to time-poor consumers
                                                  • The facts
                                                    • The implications
                                                      • Catering to consumers’ desire for variety presents opportunities in bread
                                                        • The facts
                                                          • The implications
                                                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                            • Bread value and volume sales are up in 2018
                                                              • Modest growth predicted for bread
                                                                • White leads in pre-packed bread, but bread with bits fuels growth
                                                                  • Chilled garlic bread and Indian breads see strong growth
                                                                    • Bread struggles as people strive to eat healthily
                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                      • Bread value and volume sales are up in 2018
                                                                        • Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
                                                                      • Value and volumes expected to rise over 2018-23
                                                                        • Figure 11: UK retail value sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
                                                                        • Figure 12: UK retail volume sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                      • Market Segmentation

                                                                        • Pre-packed bread sees value growth
                                                                          • Desire for craft continues
                                                                            • Figure 13: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, by segment, 2016-18
                                                                          • Bread with bits continues double-digit growth
                                                                            • White pre-packed bread remains the most popular
                                                                              • Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of pre-packed bread, by type, 2016-18
                                                                            • Chilled garlic bread and Indian breads see strong growth as people look to meal accompaniments
                                                                              • Rolls continue to come under pressure from other lunchtime options
                                                                                • Sandwich thins see ongoing decline
                                                                                  • Figure 15: UK retail value sales of rolls and speciality bread, by types, 2016-18
                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                • Bread in long-term decline
                                                                                  • Figure 16: UK household purchases of bread, per person per week, by type, 1974-2016/17
                                                                                • Bread struggles as people strive to eat healthily
                                                                                  • Nutritional benefits help to encourage bread eating
                                                                                    • Out-of-home lunch market remains a threat
                                                                                      • Figure 17: Most popular lunch foods, April 2018
                                                                                    • Growth in incomes provides an opportunity for further premiumisation
                                                                                      • Figure 18: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, January 2009-August 2018
                                                                                    • Margins set to be hit by rising prices
                                                                                      • Rise in older children could provide a boost to lunch box market
                                                                                        • Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
                                                                                    • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                      • Warburtons retains the lead in pre-packed bread; Hovis grows
                                                                                        • Warburtons sales fall in speciality bread and rolls; own-label steams ahead
                                                                                          • Own-label leads NPD after ramping up activity
                                                                                            • Warburtons steps up NPD in 2018
                                                                                              • Bread makers increase adspend in 2017
                                                                                                • Warburtons solicits greatest commitment
                                                                                                • Market Share

                                                                                                  • Warburtons retains the lead in pre-packed bread, despite sales fall
                                                                                                    • Hovis sees value sales rise on falling volumes
                                                                                                      • ABF’s Kingsmill and Burgen sales losses deepen
                                                                                                        • Own-label grows share in pre-packed bread
                                                                                                          • Figure 20: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2017/18
                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Leading companies in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2017/18
                                                                                                        • Warburtons sales also fall in speciality bread and rolls
                                                                                                          • New York Bakery Co see sales dip
                                                                                                            • Pizza Express benefits from rise in chilled garlic bread
                                                                                                              • Weight Watchers sees sales rise
                                                                                                                • Own-label sees sales rise in speciality bread and rolls
                                                                                                                  • Figure 22: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2017/1
                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Leading companies in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2017/1
                                                                                                              • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                • Own-label leads NPD after ramping up activity
                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products^ market, by brand and private-label, 2014-18
                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
                                                                                                                • Warburtons steps up NPD in 2018
                                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Warburtons unveils deli buns, 2018
                                                                                                                • Warburtons’ gluten-free rebrand boosts gluten-free launches
                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by L/N/R allergen and gluten-free claims, 2014-18
                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Warburtons rebrands Newburn Bakehouse range, 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                                • Morrisons debuts gluten-free bread in ISB
                                                                                                                  • Schär launches a FODMAP-certified range
                                                                                                                    • New York Bakery Co in brand redesign
                                                                                                                      • Figure 29: New York Bakery Co rebrands packaging, 2018
                                                                                                                    • Tapping into healthy eating trends
                                                                                                                      • Fibre content edges up
                                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Average fibre content in bread and bread products, 2014-18
                                                                                                                        • Figure 31: New products carrying a high in fibre claim, 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by selected health claims, 2014-18
                                                                                                                      • M&S looks to fibre and vitamin D
                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: M&S calls out vitamin D and fibre content in rolls, 2018
                                                                                                                      • Communicating protein content
                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: New products carrying the high in protein claim, 2018
                                                                                                                      • Seeded variants up their game to build standout
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Warburtons looks to pulses as well as seeds, 2018
                                                                                                                        • Calling out ancient grains
                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Bread makers call out presence of ancient grains on-pack, 2018
                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Warburtons references nutrients of ancient grains on back of pack, 2018
                                                                                                                        • An increase in premium claims as artisan trend takes hold
                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Share of premium products of all new launches in the UK bread market, 2014-18
                                                                                                                        • Highlighting baking/cooking techniques to convey quality
                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Brands highlight baking/cooking techniques, 2018
                                                                                                                        • Sourdough trend continues
                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Own-label and brands launch sourdough varieties, 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                                        • Flavour innovation continues in wraps
                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: M&S and Tesco launch spinach wraps, 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                                        • Savoury flavours remain rare
                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Tesco repackages cheese and chutney cob, 2018
                                                                                                                        • Opportunities for more ethical/environmental packaging
                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Bread packaging with ethical/environmental claims, 2016 and 2018
                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                          • Bread makers increase adspend in 2017
                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread and bread products, by product type, 2014-18
                                                                                                                          • Warburtons leads expenditure; enlists Boltonian Peter Kay
                                                                                                                            • ‘Gluten freeeedom’ social campaign marks gluten-free rebrand
                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by advertiser, (sorted by 2017) 2014-18
                                                                                                                            • Allied supports 50/50 range with Loaf’s Good campaign
                                                                                                                              • …and unveils on-pack promotion to ‘Grab a Grand’
                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Kingsmill unveils grab a grand promotion, 2018
                                                                                                                              • Hovis pushes ‘good today, good always’ message…
                                                                                                                                • …and urges people to fall back in love with bread
                                                                                                                                  • …and offers family holidays in on-pack promotions
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Hovis launches on-pack promotions for a chance to win a holiday, 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                                                  • New York Bakery in brand revamp…
                                                                                                                                    • …and beer launch
                                                                                                                                      • …while also looking to OOH activity
                                                                                                                                        • Retailers invest in advertising; Morrisons the highest spender
                                                                                                                                          • Tesco showcases craft bakers
                                                                                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 49: Key metrics for selected brands, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Brand attitudes: Hovis leads on being seen to care about health
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Attitudes, by brand, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Brand personality: New York Bakery Co has the edge on fun
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Brand personality – Macro image, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Market stalwarts enjoy strong family connotations
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Brand personality – Micro image, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                  • Warburtons enjoys a winning image of delivering quality and value
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: User profile of Warburtons, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • New York Bakery Co leads on fun
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: User profile of New York Bakery Co, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Hovis stands out as ethical, traditional and caring about health
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: User profile of Hovis, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Kingsmill lacks the strength of image of its closest competitors
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: User profile of Kingsmill, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Free-from brand Genius is little-known
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: User profile of Genius, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Lack of awareness hampers Roberts
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: User profile of Roberts, August 2018
                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                  • Bread buying is almost universal
                                                                                                                                                    • White bread is the most popular type of packaged sliced loaf
                                                                                                                                                      • 41% eat packaged sliced bread and 12% other types of bread daily
                                                                                                                                                        • Nutritional benefits interest 34%
                                                                                                                                                          • Convenience, value for money and health are of most importance
                                                                                                                                                            • Packed lunches seen to save you time by 82% of workers
                                                                                                                                                              • Variety appeals to bread users with 66% switching between products
                                                                                                                                                              • Purchase and Usage of Bread

                                                                                                                                                                • Bread buying is almost universal
                                                                                                                                                                  • Packaged sliced loaves lead
                                                                                                                                                                    • Many other bread products see usage peak among under-35s
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                    • White bread is the most popular type of packaged sliced loaf
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Types of packaged sliced loaves bought in the past month, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                      • Foodies opt for wholemeal and with bits bread
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Types of bread bought in the past month, by age, socio-economic group and annual household income, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                        • 41% eat packaged sliced bread and 12% other types of bread daily
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Frequency of eating bread in the past month, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumers have an expansive repertoire
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the past month, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                      • Interest in Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                        • Nutritional benefits interest 34%
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Interest in innovation, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                        • Various artisan cues each appeal to a minority
                                                                                                                                                                          • Handmade claims shoot up in NPD
                                                                                                                                                                            • Locally made products chime with 28%
                                                                                                                                                                              • Paper packaging could tap into the environmental trend
                                                                                                                                                                                • Adventurous flavours appeal to 19%
                                                                                                                                                                                • Qualities Associated with Bread for Different Occasions

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Convenience, value for money and health are of most importance
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Heavy users give these factors particular weight
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Health is important to around a third on each occasion
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Correspondence Analysis of qualities sought for when buying bread, by occasion, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Qualities sought for when buying bread by occasion, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes towards Bread

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Packed lunches seen to save you time by 82% of workers
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Attitudes towards bread, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Bread seen to be a good source of fibre by 72%...
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …but unhealthy if eaten too often by 45%
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Mothers are more likely to see too much bread as unhealthy
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Bread – CHAID – Tree output, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Global NPD with fruit or vegetable ingredients, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Hovis adds wheatgerm and calcium to best of both, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Variety of toppings means bread is never boring to 75%
                                                                                                                                                                                              • But toppings are deemed costly by 23%
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Tesco showcases prices in press ad, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bread Behaviours

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Variety appeals to bread users with 66% switching between products
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Behaviours related to bread, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                • 62% often eat bread with a meal
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 52% would like ideas on how to use up stale bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Bread – CHAID – Table output, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: UK value sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2018-23
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: UK volume sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2018-23
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Definition
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Google searches for 'FODMAP', UK, 09/2013-08/2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by texture (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by flavour component, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by any ethical/environmental claim (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by package material, 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by media type, (sorted by 2017), 2014-18