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UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods market, its consumers and the major players who make up that market.

Market

Point of sale market data

In conjunction with IRi, extensive point of sale data shows you what consumers are spending their money on

Market Size

How big is the market today and what is our 5 year forecast? Includes both best & worst case scenarios

Market Segmentation

What are the different segments within the market and how are those individual segments performing?

Consumer

Consumer behaviors

What are consumers looking for, what drives their buying habits and what are their main purchase influencers?

Demographic breakdown

From iGen & Millennials to Baby Boomers & beyond. Who is spending money and what are they spending it on?

Representative sample

We gather our data from real-world consumers, selected to accurately reflect precise global demographics

Players

Company strategy

What are the key players doing, what has been successful for them and what was their marketing spend?

Product innovation

Using data from our Global New Product Database, what products were launched and how well were they perceived?

Opportunities

What happens next, which areas are likely to experience growth and what opportunities exist within the market?

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Richard Caines, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

While this is a mature market in terms of overall usage, most people do not treat themselves to cakes and sweet baked goods that often, with scope for increasing frequency of usage. A mixture of activity is needed to appeal, as a broad spread of attributes are important to people when buying cakes. This includes both indulgent treats and products with healthier ingredients that increase permissibility. Strong associations with boosting the mood and special occasions are two key themes for supporting growth. Richard Caines
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry and how fast are its rates of growth? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

This report discusses the following key topics:

Products covered in this Report

This Report examines the UK retail market for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes and sweet baked goods which are kept at ambient temperatures, as well as cakes from in-store bakeries and bakery shops.

The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes, large cakes, celebration cakes, occasion cakes and puddings, and sweet baked goods.

‘Small cakes’ include individual cakes either sold singly, or as multipacks or assortments, as well as seasonal and occasion cakes. These include slices, small pies & tarts, mini rolls, cupcakes, bites, cake bars, flapjacks and other small cakes. ‘Large cakes’ include cakes intended for sharing. These include whole cakes, slab cakes, loaf cakes, Swiss rolls, sponge cakes, large pies & tarts, and tray bakes.

‘Sweet baked goods’ include: crumpets, croissants, brioche loaves and rolls, pain au chocolat and raisins, American muffins, scones, hot cross buns/loaves, malt and fruit loaves, pancakes, teacakes, doughnuts, English muffins, waffles, fruit buns, crêpes, potato cakes/scones, Irish bread, iced buns, farls, sweet bread/ buns and pikelets.

The Report excludes frozen cakes/pastries, chilled desserts such as fruit sorbets and cheesecakes, cake mixes or baking ingredients and biscuits. It also excludes sales via catering or foodservice establishments ie those sold in cafés, restaurants etc, however, references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Total sales of cakes and sweet baked goods flat
              • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
            • Treating and special occasions will help future growth
              • 2017 growth in cake sales due to higher prices
                • Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
                  • Cutting sugar a major challenge for the market
                    • Income squeeze not necessarily bad news
                      • Companies and brands
                        • Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
                          • Figure 2: Leading brands in cakes and cake bars retail market, share by value, 2016/17*
                        • Reduced sugar range launched by Mr Kipling
                          • Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence
                            • Dip in 2017 advertising for cakes and sweet baked goods
                              • Cadbury and Mr Kipling most trusted brands
                                • The consumer
                                  • Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
                                    • Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
                                      • Figure 3: Types of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
                                    • Two thirds of less frequent buyers could be persuaded to buy more
                                      • Figure 4: Factors that would encourage more buying of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods, December 2017
                                    • Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
                                      • Figure 5: Attributes most important when buying for yourself or for sharing with others, December 2017
                                    • High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
                                      • Figure 6: Factors most important when buying cakes and sweet baked goods for a special occasion, December 2017
                                    • At-work occasions and internet important for cake sales
                                      • Figure 7: Behaviour in relation to cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
                                    • Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
                                      • Figure 8: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
                                    • What we think
                                    • Issues and Insights

                                      • Scope for cakes to steal space on the menu from other sweet treats
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • Broad range of attributes needed to capture people’s attention for different occasions
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                  • Special occasions offer plenty of scope for adding value to market
                                                    • The facts
                                                      • The implications
                                                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                        • Total sales of cakes and sweet baked goods flat
                                                          • Treating and special occasions will help future growth
                                                            • Growth in cake sales due to higher prices
                                                              • Stronger growth in small than large cakes
                                                                • Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
                                                                  • Baking at home still popular
                                                                    • Cutting sugar a major challenge for the market
                                                                      • PHE encourages healthier snacks for kids
                                                                        • Income squeeze not necessarily bad news
                                                                          • Ageing population presents a challenge to cakes
                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                            • Total sales for cakes and sweet baked goods flat
                                                                              • Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
                                                                              • Figure 10: Total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
                                                                            • Treating and special occasions will help future growth
                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                              • Market Segmentation

                                                                                • Growth in cake sales due to higher prices
                                                                                  • Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by major segment, 2012-22
                                                                                • Stronger growth in small than large cakes
                                                                                  • Figure 12: Total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                • Few bright spots in sweet baked goods in 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 13: Total UK retail value sales of pre-packed sweet baked goods, by types, 2016 and 2017
                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                • Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
                                                                                  • Baking at home still popular
                                                                                    • Figure 14: 'I bake cakes/sweet baked goods at home', by age, December 2017
                                                                                  • Cutting sugar a major challenge for market
                                                                                    • Sugar reduction targets set
                                                                                      • PHE encourages healthier snacking for kids
                                                                                        • Income squeeze not necessarily bad news for cakes
                                                                                          • Ageing population presents a challenge to cakes
                                                                                            • Growth in the child population
                                                                                              • Figure 15: Trends in age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
                                                                                          • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                            • Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
                                                                                              • On-the-go range expansion helps Soreen
                                                                                                • Mr Kipling launches reduced sugar range
                                                                                                  • Seasonal products make up a fifth of new launches
                                                                                                    • Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence
                                                                                                      • Dip in 2017 advertising for cakes and sweet baked goods
                                                                                                        • Mr Kipling stand for good value
                                                                                                          • Cadbury and Mr Kipling most trusted
                                                                                                            • Soreen has healthier connotations
                                                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                                                              • Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
                                                                                                                • Figure 16: Leading brands in cakes and cake bars retail market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
                                                                                                              • Sweet baked goods dominated by own-label
                                                                                                                • Figure 17: Leading brands in sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
                                                                                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                              • Bite-size products see more NPD activity
                                                                                                                • Increasing range of flavours
                                                                                                                  • Healthier bites also being explored
                                                                                                                    • Reduced sugar variants still a rarity in cakes
                                                                                                                      • Cakes continue to target on-the-go snacking
                                                                                                                        • Seasonal products make up a fifth of new launches
                                                                                                                          • Summer range of cakes from Mr Kipling
                                                                                                                            • Halloween a big seasonal event for cakes
                                                                                                                              • Small tarts look to attract younger shoppers
                                                                                                                                • Choice of gluten-free cakes being expanded
                                                                                                                                  • Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence in cakes
                                                                                                                                    • New flavours give hot cross buns a new twist
                                                                                                                                      • Taking luxury and indulgence to new levels
                                                                                                                                      • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                        • Further dip in advertising spending
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 18: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, 2014-17
                                                                                                                                        • Advertising dominated by retailers
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, by advertiser, 2014-17
                                                                                                                                          • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                          • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                              • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 20: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 21: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Brand attitudes: Quality image is a strength for Mr Kipling, Cadbury and Thorntons
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 22: Attitudes, by brand, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Brand personality: Cadbury and Mr Kipling are the most fun brands
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Brand personality – macro image, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Thorntons is seen as the most indulgent and special
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Brand personality – micro image, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                  • Cadbury Cakes seen as the most delicious
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: User profile of Cadbury Cakes, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Thorntons Cakes is seen as the most indulgent brand
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: User profile of Thorntons Cakes, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Mr Kipling seen as the most traditional brand
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: User profile of Mr Kipling, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • McVitie’s Cakes widely seen as an accessible and trusted brand
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: User profile of McVitie’s Cakes, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Soreen can benefit from having stronger healthy associations
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: User profile of Soreen, January 2018
                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                  • Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
                                                                                                                                                    • Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
                                                                                                                                                      • Two thirds of buyers could be persuaded to buy more
                                                                                                                                                        • Variety and single portion packs appeal
                                                                                                                                                          • Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
                                                                                                                                                            • Exciting flavours have the edge over traditional ones
                                                                                                                                                              • High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
                                                                                                                                                                • Plentiful toppings/fillings also important for special occasion treats
                                                                                                                                                                  • At-work occasions and internet important for cake sales
                                                                                                                                                                    • Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
                                                                                                                                                                    • Frequency of Eating and Buying

                                                                                                                                                                      • Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Number of different types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                      • Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Types of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                      • Sweet treats are mostly eaten on an infrequent basis
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Frequency of eating different types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                      • Only a third of people buy at least once a week
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Frequency of buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods in the last 3 months, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                    • Factors That Would Encourage More Buying

                                                                                                                                                                      • Two thirds of buyers could be persuaded to buy more
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Factors that would encourage more buying of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                      • Variety and single portion packs appeal
                                                                                                                                                                        • Health-boosting ingredients can also encourage more buying
                                                                                                                                                                          • Offering sampling encourages more buying
                                                                                                                                                                            • In-store sampling would win over more than a fifth of infrequent buyers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Sampling appeals more to those interested in unusual flavours
                                                                                                                                                                              • Most Important Product Attributes by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                                                • Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Attributes most important when buying for yourself or for sharing with others, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                • Exciting flavours have the edge over traditional ones
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Healthier ingredients are more important for self-treating
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bite-size cake formats an attraction for sharing
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Factors Most Important When Buying for a Special Occasion

                                                                                                                                                                                      • High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Factors most important when buying cakes and sweet baked goods for a special occasion, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Strong visual appeal makes a difference
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Plentiful toppings/fillings also important for special occasion treats
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Behaviour in Relation to Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                          • At-work occasions important for cake sales
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Behaviour in relation to cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Personalised cakes have further growth potential
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Millennials more likely to be influenced by social media
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Attitudes towards Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Room for more on-the-go options in cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Leading manufacturers in cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Leading manufacturers in sweet baked goods, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: New product launches in the cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2017), 2014-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: New product launches in the cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2017), 2014-17