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Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Chocolate: Inc Impact of COVID-19 - UK market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

A new flavour is the top factor that would tempt buyers to a new chocolate product. This makes investment in new product development (NPD) an imperative for chocolate brands, even as they face a severe economic downturn and a pressing need to cut costs. The disruption caused by the COVID-19 outbreak has hit the highvalue seasonal and assortment segments and impulse formats in the first half of 2020, expected to continue in the second half. The volume loss is estimated to be largely offset by an uplift in at-home snacking. This shift and discounting are dragging down average prices. The market is estimated to post volume growth of just 0.3% in 2020 to 526m kg, with value sales falling by 0.3% to £5.4bn.

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Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Angharad Goode, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Although the market has proven resilient in past difficulties, the economic downturn triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak will coincide with new challenges. The heightened spotlight on health will dial up the pressure from the existing sugar reduction targets. However, there is openness to reduced sugar variants and opportunities within flavour innovation and for brands that can position themselves as accessible luxuries Angharad Goode
Food & Drink Analyst

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What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Products covered in this Report
          • COVID-19: Market context
            • Economic and other assumptions
            • Executive Summary

                • The market
                  • Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate
                    • Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on chocolate, short, medium and long term, 8 July 2020
                  • Following 2019 uplift, chocolate volumes expected to stagnate in 2020
                    • Figure 2: UK retail value sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
                  • COVID-19 fuels emphasis on healthy eating
                    • Income squeeze will sharpen focus on price
                      • Chocolate confectionery extends its lead in the market
                        • Figure 3: UK retail value and volume sales of chocolate, by segment, 2017-20
                      • Companies and brands
                        • Cadbury Dairy Milk posts strong growth
                          • Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail chocolate confectionery market, by value, 2018/19-2019/20
                        • Spotlight on plastic waste sees brands explore sustainable packaging
                          • Vegan claims leap ahead
                            • Various brands explore new channels to market
                              • Adspend stands at £98m in 2019
                                • The consumer
                                  • 15% of people eat chocolate at least daily
                                    • Figure 5: Frequency of eating chocolate, March 2020
                                  • Scope to associate with relaxing moments and activities
                                    • Figure 6: Reasons for eating chocolate, March 2020
                                  • New flavours tempt almost half of chocolate buyers
                                    • Figure 7: Concepts that would prompt buyers to buy a new chocolate, March 2020
                                  • Taste is at the heart of product choice
                                    • Figure 8: Purchase drivers for chocolate, March 2020
                                  • Premium chocolate maintains ‘affordable luxury’ image
                                    • Figure 9: Behaviours related to chocolate, March 2020
                                  • Almost half prefer taste of standard over lower-sugar chocolate
                                    • Figure 10: Behaviours related to chocolate, March 2020
                                  • What we think
                                  • The Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate

                                    • The market
                                      • Chocolate volumes expected to stagnate in 2020
                                        • 2008-10 learnings bode well for chocolate to grow spend
                                          • The consumer
                                            • COVID-19 fuels emphasis on healthy eating
                                              • Income squeeze will sharpen focus on price
                                                • Mood-boost and affordable-luxury connotations will support chocolate
                                                  • COVID-19’s link to planetary health puts spotlight on sustainability
                                                    • Companies and brands
                                                      • Large players are better placed to weather disruption from COVID-19
                                                        • Learnings from 2009-10 signal own-label is well placed to gain share
                                                          • With impulse occasions being hit, chocolate must win in weekly shop
                                                          • Issues and Insights

                                                            • COVID-19 sharply heightens the focus on health
                                                              • The facts
                                                                • The implications
                                                                  • Flavour innovation is imperative
                                                                    • The facts
                                                                      • The implications
                                                                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                        • Following 2019 uplift, chocolate volumes expected to stagnate in 2020
                                                                          • 2008-10 learnings bode well for chocolate to grow spend
                                                                            • Chocolate confectionery extends its lead in the market
                                                                              • Brexit deal will impact import prices
                                                                                • Fewer 25-34s and slowing growth of children poses a challenge
                                                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                  • Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate
                                                                                    • Figure 11: Expected impact of COVID-19 on chocolate, short, medium and long term, 8 July 2020
                                                                                  • Following 2019 uplift, market expected to stagnate in 2020
                                                                                    • Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
                                                                                  • 2008-10 learnings bode well for chocolate to maintain spend
                                                                                    • Figure 13: UK retail value sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
                                                                                  • A lasting shift in work patterns and continued evenings in put more focus on at-home occasions
                                                                                    • Spotlight on health from COVID-19 expected to dent volume growth
                                                                                      • Brexit injects further uncertainty to outlook
                                                                                        • Figure 14: UK retail volume sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
                                                                                    • Market Segmentation

                                                                                      • Chocolate confectionery extends its lead in the market
                                                                                        • Seasonal chocolate and assortments feel the disruption acutely in spring 2020
                                                                                          • Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of chocolate, by segment, 2017-20
                                                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                                                        • Manufacturers tasked with cutting sugar
                                                                                          • COVID-19 heightens focus on health
                                                                                            • Figure 16: Changes in eating healthily being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 7-14 May 2020
                                                                                          • Fewer 25-34s and slowing growth of children poses a challenge
                                                                                            • Over-65s warrant attention
                                                                                              • Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
                                                                                            • Income squeeze will sharpen focus on price
                                                                                              • Figure 18: Cutting back on non-essential spending, by gender, 25 June-1 July 2020
                                                                                            • Mood-boost connotations and evenings in will support chocolate
                                                                                              • Figure 19: Extent to which consumers feel comfortable doing selected out-of-home activities, 25 June-1 July 2020
                                                                                            • Lockdown and expected rise in remote working will hamper impulse occasions
                                                                                              • Figure 20: Changes in selected behaviours since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender, 25 June-1 July 2020
                                                                                            • COVID-19 linked to human impact on the environment
                                                                                              • Figure 21: Changes in the environment being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 7-14 May 2020
                                                                                            • Palm oil was on people’s radars pre-COVID-19, vegan diets gain appeal
                                                                                              • New legislation will require supply-chain due diligence
                                                                                                • Brexit deal will impact import prices
                                                                                                  • Impact of COVID-19 on cocoa supply remains uncertain
                                                                                                  • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                    • Cadbury Dairy Milk posts strong growth
                                                                                                      • Learnings from 2009-10 signal own-label is well placed to gain share
                                                                                                        • Cadbury reveals first brand identity overhaul in 50 years
                                                                                                          • Spotlight on plastic waste sees brands explore sustainable packaging
                                                                                                            • Vegan claims leap ahead
                                                                                                              • Various brands explore new channels to market
                                                                                                                • Adspend stands at £98m in 2019
                                                                                                                • Market Share

                                                                                                                  • Cadbury Dairy Milk posts strong growth
                                                                                                                    • Darkmilk and Freddo Treasures boost Mondelez
                                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail chocolate confectionery market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
                                                                                                                    • Aero leaps ahead
                                                                                                                      • Mixed performances for assortments brands
                                                                                                                        • Multinational conglomerates dominate the market
                                                                                                                          • Figure 23: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail chocolate confectionery market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
                                                                                                                        • Large players are better placed to weather disruption from COVID-19
                                                                                                                          • Learnings from 2009-10 signal own-label is well placed to gain share
                                                                                                                          • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                            • Cadbury reveals first brand identity overhaul in 50 years
                                                                                                                              • Two in three launches make environmental or ethical claims
                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Share of chocolate launches with selected ethical claims, 2015-20*
                                                                                                                              • Co-op calls out the tangible impact of Fairtrade, Cox & Co claims a ‘fully sustainable’ Easter egg
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Examples of chocolate launches spotlighting ethical commitments, 2020
                                                                                                                                • Swiss chocolatier creates new WholeFruit chocolate
                                                                                                                                  • Spotlight on plastic waste sees brands explore sustainable packaging
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Percentage of chocolate launches with ethical packaging claims, 2015- May 2020
                                                                                                                                  • Nestlé links with TerraCycle, launches Smarties in recyclable paper wrapper
                                                                                                                                    • Vegan Galaxy uses compostable film, Asda redesigns its Easter eggs to reduce packaging
                                                                                                                                      • Montezuma redesigns for sustainability, some brands adopt recycled plastic
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Examples of products with sustainable packaging claims, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                      • Vegan claims leap ahead
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Percentage of chocolate launches with allergen-free and vegan claims, 2015-20*
                                                                                                                                      • Mars introduces vegan Galaxy, Barry Callebaut launches new vegan ‘milk’ chocolate
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Examples of chocolate launches with vegan claims, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                      • Lower-sugar and high-protein launches still niche
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Percentage of chocolate launches with a low/no sugar, high/added protein or high/added fibre claim, 2015-20*
                                                                                                                                      • Cadbury releases Dairy Milk 30% Less Sugar range and pledges 100-calorie cap for kids’ treats
                                                                                                                                        • Nestlé creates new chocolate with no refined sugar…
                                                                                                                                          • …and launches ‘More’ range
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Examples of reduced sugar or portion-controlled launches, 2019
                                                                                                                                          • Brands extend into new flavours and formats
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Share of chocolate launches by launch type, 2015-20*
                                                                                                                                          • Cadbury launches crowdsourced Dairy Milk flavours
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Established brands continue flavour innovation, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                          • M&M’s launches blocks, Quality Street and Galaxy explore truffles
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Established brands explore new formats, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                          • Seasonal launches gain share of NPD
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Share of seasonal chocolate launches of all chocolate launches, 2015-20*
                                                                                                                                          • Supermarkets expand the Easter menagerie
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Examples of novelty animal-shaped Easter products, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                          • Various brands explore new channels to market
                                                                                                                                            • Nestlé ties up with Deliveroo for home delivery…
                                                                                                                                              • … while KitKat offers DTC, personalised products
                                                                                                                                                • Quality Street festive pick-and-mix repeated, Lindt Lindor goes pick and mix at Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                                                                • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                  • Adspend stands at £98m in 2019
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, by advertiser (ordered by 2019), 2019-20*
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, by media type (ordered by 2019), 2016-20*
                                                                                                                                                  • Cadbury continues with “There’s a glass and a half in everyone” campaign
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, by brand (ordered by 2019), 2019-20*
                                                                                                                                                  • Cadbury Dairy Milk links with Age UK
                                                                                                                                                    • Cadbury pushes visibility for its limited-edition Dairy Milk Inventor bars
                                                                                                                                                      • Creme Egg goes VOD for 2020
                                                                                                                                                        • Cadbury Heroes explores long-form in 2019
                                                                                                                                                          • Galaxy targets busy, under-pressure women
                                                                                                                                                            • M&M’s launches TV and digital campaign to promote new bars…
                                                                                                                                                              • …while Maltesers use AR for Easter bunny campaign
                                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé partners with Now TV once again
                                                                                                                                                                  • Lindt debuts ad for Excellence range
                                                                                                                                                                    • KitKat takes the spotlight on TV
                                                                                                                                                                      • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                          • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Key metrics for selected brands, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand attitudes: Lindt Lindor leads on being seen as worth paying more for
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Attitudes, by brand, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand personality: Kinder and M&M’s are most widely seen as fun
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Brand personality – macro image, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                          • M&M’s has the strongest association with being cool
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Brand personality – micro image, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cadbury Dairy Milk is the most widely eaten brand, most widely seen as accessible and trustworthy
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: User profile of Cadbury Dairy Milk, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                            • Lindt Lindor leads the pack on perceptions of high quality and exclusivity
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: User profile of Lindt Lindor, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                            • Galaxy holds its own on deliciousness, comfort and accessibility
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: User profile of Galaxy, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                            • KitKat is widely seen as a family brand and a brand that offers good value
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: User profile of KitKat, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                            • Ferrero Rocher seen widely as indulgent and special
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: User profile of Ferrero Rocher, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                            • M&M’s leads on being seen as cool
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: User profile of M&M’s, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                            • Kinder seen as the most fun and family orientated
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: User profile of Kinder, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                            • 15% of people eat chocolate at least daily
                                                                                                                                                                              • Young people are core users
                                                                                                                                                                                • Many want emotional fulfilment from chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                  • New flavours tempt almost half of chocolate buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Taste is at the heart of product choice
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Over half have yet to try lower-sugar chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Premium chocolate maintains ‘affordable luxury’ image
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Almost half prefer taste of standard over lower-sugar chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Frequency of Eating Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                            • 15% of people eat chocolate at least daily
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Frequency of eating chocolate, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Young people and families are core users
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Types of Chocolate Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Two thirds eat single-serve bars
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Formats of chocolate eaten in the last three months, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Time of Day for Eating Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Majority eat chocolate after midday
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Time of day when chocolate is eaten, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Further potential for morning consumption
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Examples of chocolate bars with ingredients evoking morning connotations, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Reasons for Eating Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Many want emotional fulfilment from chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Scope to associate with relaxing moments and activities
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Maltesers supports Mental Health Awareness Week
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tie-ups can link with cheering up or to combat boredom
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Reasons for eating chocolate, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • One in five reach for chocolate when hungry
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Examples of chocolate products with a high-/added-protein claim, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Concepts of Interest

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • New flavours tempt almost half of chocolate buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Concepts that would prompt buyers to buy a new chocolate, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cadbury turns to crowdsourcing for new flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Examples of brands offering new flavours, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • A fifth are drawn to recyclable packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Vegan ingredients appeal to one in ten
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Examples of brands offering vegan chocolate products, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Purchase Drivers for Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Taste is at the heart of product choice
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Purchase drivers for chocolate, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Price matters to three in five
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Healthy products are not a priority or widely available
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Behaviours Related to Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Premium chocolate maintains ‘affordable luxury’ image
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Recession heightens importance of accessibly priced products, points to opportunity for premium own-label
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Behaviours related to chocolate, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Over half have yet to try lower-sugar chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Over a third willing to pay more for single-origin cocoa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes towards Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Almost half prefer taste of standard over lower-sugar chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Attitudes towards chocolate, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumers are divided about gift packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Share of new product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by claim category, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: Share of new product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by ethical claim, 2015-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        About the report

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Trends

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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