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UK Consumers and the Economic Outlook: Inc Impact of COVID-19 market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Consumers and the Economic Outlook: Inc Impact of COVID-19 - UK market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

GDP fell by 20.4% on a quarterly basis in Q2, while the economy was 21.7% smaller than the same period a year earlier. This actually represented better performance than expected by some projections. However, while a recession on this scale was widely anticipated, it should not be underestimated. This is the deepest recession since official records began, driven by a similar drop in household consumption during lockdown.

All reports purchased from the Mintel Store now come with free access to our COVID-19 Global Insights Hub, allowing you to understand how industries and consumer behaviour is changing worldwide.

What does the COVID-19 Global Insights Hub give you access to?

  • Over 450 pieces of research (with more published each week) addressing markets across the globe.
  • Discover how people in countries at different stages of the crisis are adjusting to the 'new normal'.
  • Trending industries which have seen growth due to the changes in circumstance.
  • Our latest consumer research surveys, allowing you to see customers views right now.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Richard Shepherd, a leading analyst in the Financial Services sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The UK is in the midst of its deepest recession on record. However, the recovery has already started, with monthly GDP growth in May and June. However, the winding down of state support for businesses presents renewed threats that could derail the recovery and is expected to lead to significant job losses. Richard Shepherd
Associate Director - Financial Services


What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Key Findings

      • A recession like no other
        • Unemployment figures require closer examination
          • Consumer sentiment has defied the gloomy conditions
            • Key economic indicators
              • Figure 1: Key economic indicators, August 2020
          • Economic Indicators

            • What you need to know
              • The deepest recession since official records began…
                • Figure 2: Quarter-on-quarter change in GDP, Q1 2007-Q2 2020
              • …but the recovery has started
                  • Figure 3: Monthly change in GDP, segmented by sector, February 2020-June 2020
                • Private consumption fell by 23% in Q2
                  • Figure 4: Quarter-on-quarter change in private consumption*, Q1 2007-Q2 2020
                • Retail sales rebounded in June
                  • Figure 5: Annual change in the value of retail sales, including fuel, January 2007-June 2020
                • Savings surged during lockdown
                  • Figure 6: Monthly change in household deposits and quarterly household savings ratio, January 2015-June 2020
                • Borrowing has started to recover but still way below usual levels
                  • Figure 7: Monthly gross lending of consumer credit and secured loans, January 2015-June 2020
              • The Labour Market

                • What you need to know
                  • Stability in unemployment fails to show the impact of COVID-19
                    • Figure 8: Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, Q1 2007-Q2 2020
                  • Joblessness is rising…
                    • Figure 9: Number of people employed in the UK, aged 16 and over, Q1 vs Q2 2020
                  • …but laid-off workers are not all looking for an immediate return to work
                    • Figure 10: Number of people economically inactive in the UK, aged 16-64, Q1 2019-Q2 2020
                  • PAYE data shows a 730,000 drop in people receiving pay since March
                    • Figure 11: Paid employees in the UK, seasonally adjusted, January-July 2020
                • Consumers’ Response to the EU Referendum Result

                  • What you need to know
                    • A COVID summer of discontent for Brexit
                        • Figure 12: Level of concern over the impact of the EU referendum, July 2016-July 2020
                      • Prices, jobs and growth continue to dominate consumers’ concerns
                          • Figure 13: Consumer views on the impact of the EU referendum, July 2020
                        • 35-54-year-olds are the least positive
                            • Figure 14: Agreement that Brexit will have a positive effect on “The UK’s economic growth”, “Unemployment” and “The cost of living”, by age, July 2020
                        • Current Financial Situation

                          • What you need to know
                            • Financial wellbeing has hit new highs
                              • Figure 15: The financial wellbeing index, January 2015-July 2020
                            • A third have cash left over at the end of the month
                              • Figure 16: “How would you generally describe your financial situation at the moment?”, July 2020
                            • Working differences help explain the overall resilience of wellbeing
                              • Figure 17: Current financial wellbeing, by employment situation, July 2020
                          • Changes in Financial Situation

                            • What you need to know
                              • Sentiment has rebounded as the economy has opened up…
                                • Figure 18: Changes in household finances, January 2015-July 2020
                              • …but consumers are still more likely to feel worse off than better off
                                • Figure 19: “How would you describe your finances compared to a year ago?”, July 2020
                              • COVID-19 impact is easing but 27% are still worse off
                                • Figure 20: Changes in financial situation since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK, June-August 2020
                              • Gen X have been hit the hardest
                                • Figure 21: Changes in household finances, by generation, July 2020
                            • Financial Confidence

                              • What you need to know
                                • Consumers think the worst is behind them
                                  • Figure 22: The financial confidence index, January 2015-July 2020
                                • A third are pretty confident for the year ahead
                                  • Figure 23: “And how do you feel about your financial situation over the next year or so?”, July 2020
                                • COVID-19 expected to harm the economy, not necessarily individuals
                                  • Figure 24: Consumer views on the impact of COVID-19, 18-24 June 2020
                              • Planned Financial and Spending Activity

                                • What you need to know
                                  • The recovery begins
                                    • Figure 25: The financial activity index, January 2015-July 2020
                                  • Consumers continue to focus on saving
                                    • Figure 26: “Thinking about how you spend your money, which of the following have you done over the last three months? And which do you plan to do over the next three months?”, July 2020
                                  • Most everyday spending categories are getting back to normal…
                                    • Figure 27: Expected spending compared to usual habits, 13-21 August 2020
                                  • …but leisure is being held back by hygiene concerns
                                    • Figure 28: Consumers’ level of comfort doing various activities, 13-21 August 2020

                                About the report

                                This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                • The Consumer

                                  What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                • The Competitors

                                  Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                • The Market

                                  Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                • The Innovations

                                  New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                • The Opportunities

                                  Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                • The Trends

                                  What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.