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UK Public Expenditure market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Public Expenditure market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry and how fast are its rates of growth? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this Report

For the purposes of this Report, UK public expenditure, which covers the government’s spending on public services, has been segmented into:

  • Central government expenditure
  • Local government expenditure
  • Public corporation expenditure

Segmentation of Total Managed Expenditure

  • Social Protection
  • Health
  • Education
  • General public services
  • Economic Affairs
  • Defence

What you need to know

The UK continues to strive towards reducing the national deficit as public spending remains pressured in 2018. This is particularly the case for local authorities, where budgets continue to fall in line with centralisation efforts.

Although still characterised by overarching austerity, expenditure is also being heavily dictated by the UK’s imminent exit from the European Union, with the need to restructure many channels of spending and receipts, which were previously tied to the legislative framework of the single market. Looking forward, the UK is set to face a period of significant uncertainty. Efforts to reduce the deficit will remain prominent as long as the Conservative government is in power. However, spending cuts could be eased in the coming years as the UK looks to negotiate uncertainties and their impact on economic growth.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Marco Amasanti , a leading analyst in the B2B sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The UK government’s strategy remains focused on reducing the national deficit, with a desire to maintain public expenditure while reducing borrowing and boosting economic growth. The government further reduced borrowing in 2018, with this trend set to continue in the coming years, assuming no political change. However, the UK is set to face a period of great uncertainty throughout this period as it looks to restructure expenditure in light of Brexit. Marco Amasanti
B2B Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Expenditure continues to grow, while falling as a percentage of GDP
              • Figure 1: UK public sector total managed expenditure, £ million and % of GDP, 2013/14-2017/18
            • Old age dependency ratio set to grow significantly
              • Figure 2: UK population by life stage, mid-2016 and mid-2041
            • Companies and brands
              • The collapse of Carillion
                • What we think
                • Issues and Insights

                  • The collapse of Carillion and scrutiny on outsourcing
                    • The facts
                      • The implications
                        • The UK’s ageing population
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                            • The Market – What You Need to Know

                              • Expenditure rises for a fifth consecutive year
                                • Despite losing market share in the past year, social protection remains the largest public service by expenditure
                                  • UK population set to rise further in the next 25 years, as the number of pensioners grows significantly
                                    • Public expenditure set to continue overall growth, while falling relative to GDP
                                    • Market Size

                                      • Total managed expenditure
                                        • Figure 3: UK public sector total managed expenditure, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Public sector borrowing
                                        • Figure 4: UK public sector borrowing, £ million and %, 2007-17
                                      • Current and capital expenditure
                                        • Figure 5: Public sector current and capital expenditure, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                    • Market Segmentation

                                        • Figure 6: Segmentation of total managed expenditure, by function, £ billion, 2017/18
                                        • Figure 7: Segmentation of total managed expenditure, by function, £ billion, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Social protection
                                        • Figure 8: Total managed expenditure on social protection, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Health
                                        • Figure 9: Total managed expenditure on health, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Education
                                        • Figure 10: Total managed expenditure on education, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • General public services
                                        • Figure 11: Total managed expenditure on general public services, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Economic affairs
                                        • Figure 12: Total managed expenditure on economic affairs, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Defence
                                        • Figure 13: Total managed expenditure on defence, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Public order and safety
                                        • Figure 14: Total managed expenditure on public order and safety, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                      • Other
                                        • Figure 15: Total managed expenditure on other, £ million, 2013/14-2017/18
                                    • Market Forecast

                                      • Plans for consecutive increases to total managed expenditure over the next two years
                                        • Figure 16: UK forecast public sector total managed expenditure, 2017/18-2019/20
                                      • The UK economy and national deficit
                                        • Figure 17: UK GDP and labour force forecast, 2018-22
                                        • Figure 18: UK public sector receipts and expenditure forecast, % of GDP, 2018/19-2022/23
                                    • The Impact of the Economy

                                      • Real wage pressures
                                        • Weak productivity growth
                                        • Market Trends

                                          • Population projections
                                              • Figure 19: UK estimated and projected population, mid-2016 and mid-2041
                                            • By nation
                                              • Figure 20: Estimated and projected population of the UK, by country, mid-2016 to mid-2041
                                            • Ageing population
                                                • Figure 21: UK population by life stage, mid-2016 and mid-2041
                                            • Market Drivers

                                              • London continues to dominate regional spending
                                                  • Figure 22: Total identifiable expenditure on public services, by region, 2017/18
                                                • Increasing uptake of commercial property
                                                  • Pension age increases
                                                    • Collapse of Carillion
                                                    • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Fallout from collapse of Carillion
                                                        • Growing expenditure on technology
                                                        • Competitive Strategies

                                                          • Plans for digital reinvention
                                                            • Government investment in artificial intelligence
                                                            • Company Profile

                                                              • BAE Systems
                                                                • Overview
                                                                  • Recent company activity
                                                                    • Financial information
                                                                      • Figure 23: Financial analysis of BAE Systems, 2013-17
                                                                    • Babcock International Group
                                                                      • Overview
                                                                        • Recent company activity
                                                                          • Financial information
                                                                            • Figure 24: Financial analysis of Babcock International Group, 2013-17
                                                                          • Balfour Beatty
                                                                            • Overview
                                                                              • Recent company activity
                                                                                • Financial information
                                                                                  • Figure 25: Financial analysis of Balfour Beatty, 2013-17
                                                                                • Capita
                                                                                  • Overview
                                                                                    • Recent company activity
                                                                                      • Financial information
                                                                                        • Figure 26: Financial analysis of Capita, 2013-17
                                                                                      • G4S
                                                                                        • Overview
                                                                                          • Recent company activity
                                                                                            • Financial information
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Financial analysis of G4S, 2013-17
                                                                                            • IBM United Kingdom
                                                                                              • Overview
                                                                                                • Recent company activity
                                                                                                  • Financial information
                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Financial analysis of IBM, 2013-17
                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                      • Methodology
                                                                                                      • Further Sources and Contacts

                                                                                                        • Trade associations
                                                                                                          • Institute for Fiscal Studies
                                                                                                            • National Audit Office
                                                                                                              • Office for Budget Responsibility
                                                                                                                • Trade magazines
                                                                                                                  • Government & Public Sector Journal
                                                                                                                    • Local Government News
                                                                                                                      • The Chartered Institute of Public Finance & Accountancy
                                                                                                                        • New Start Publishing Ltd
                                                                                                                          • Trade events
                                                                                                                            • The Education Show
                                                                                                                              • Social Housing Exhibition