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UK Retail Briefing - April 2018

This month's UK Retail briefing includes:

  • An Analyst comment on the UK Retail sector in turmoil
  • On overview of the latest UK Retail sales.
  • Sector Focus - Online Retailing - UK.
  • Highlights of the latest UK Retail trend observations
  • Monthly UK retail news headlines and analysis

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment – The Retail Sector in Turmoil

      • Failing retailers
        • 2017 was not a bad year
          • Figure 1: Retail sales growth, 2017
        • Failures – some common reasons
          • Toys R Us – format redundant
            • Maplin – who wants it?
              • Conviviality – hubris
                • Kleeneze – who?
                  • Furniture – Easy come, easy go
                    • Fashion – so much more demanding in the internet era
                      • Why Now – and what does it say about the high street?
                        • Online still the fastest growing element in retailing
                          • The multi-channel option – long term makes most sense
                            • Competition – so much more than stores vs online
                              • Rabbits in the headlights
                                • The siren call of diversification
                                  • When will online peak? The example of booksellers
                                    • Prospects for the high street
                                      • Short term prospects 2018 and into 2019 – not too bad at all
                                        • Figure 2: Consumer confidence, Jan 2014- Feb 2018
                                    • UK Retail Sales

                                      • Key points
                                        • Retail sales
                                            • Figure 3: Retail sales trends, 2017/18
                                            • Figure 4: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2016-2018
                                          • John Lewis
                                            • Figure 5: John Lewis Department Stores: Year-on-Year Growth, 2016-2018
                                          • Inflation
                                            • Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2017-18
                                          • Inflation and wages
                                            • Figure 7: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, Jan 2014- Jan 2018
                                          • Confidence
                                            • Figure 8: Mintel Financial confidence tracker, January 2015 – February 2018
                                          • Looking forward
                                          • Sector Focus – Online Retailing

                                              • Online growth peaked in 2016
                                                • Figure 9: All online retail sales, annual growth by month, non-seasonally adjusted, Jan 2016 –Feb 2018
                                              • Online share of sales peaks at Black Friday
                                                • Figure 10: Online share of all retail sales, monthly, Jan 2016-Feb 2018
                                              • Share of online sales more equally split
                                                • Figure 11: Share of online sales, store-based vs. pureplay retailers, 2009-17
                                              • Improved delivery options
                                                • Amazon dominates online
                                                  • Figure 12: Top ten online retailers, market shares, by value, 2015- 2016
                                                • Amazons foray into fashion
                                                • Launch Activity and Innovations

                                                  • UK: Co-op teams up with Live Nation for festival rollout
                                                    • UK: Dunelm trials DIY offering in-store
                                                      • UK: eBay introduces Shop the Celebrity Look image search
                                                        • UK: Sainsbury’s trials overhaul of Nectar loyalty scheme
                                                        • Headlines for the Month

                                                          • Food and Drink
                                                            • Clothing and footwear
                                                              • Home and household goods
                                                                • Online
                                                                  • Other Retailing
                                                                    • Economy
                                                                    • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                                                      • UK: Aldi commits to making all own-label packaging sustainable by 2022
                                                                        • UK: Bestway buys Bargain Booze as part of £7.25 million deal
                                                                          • UK: Co-op
                                                                            • … to change own-brand water to 50% recycled bottles
                                                                              • … returns to profit as food sales rise in 2017
                                                                                • UK: Conviviality
                                                                                  • … expected to appoint administrators
                                                                                    • … appoints administrators
                                                                                      • … files for administration
                                                                                        • … issues profit warning
                                                                                          • … sells wholesale arm to Magners cider owner
                                                                                            • UK: Marks & Spencer appoints CEO of Steinhoff UK to head up food business
                                                                                              • UK: Morrisons sales and profits rise in 2017
                                                                                                • UK: Ocado retail revenue rises in Q1
                                                                                                  • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                    • … reportedly looking at Mothercare takeover
                                                                                                      • … to sell Tu clothing range on Argos with next day delivery
                                                                                                        • UK: Simply Cook expands to supermarkets
                                                                                                          • UK: Tesco expands plant-based range
                                                                                                          • News Analysis – Clothing and footwear

                                                                                                            • UK: Farfetch signs deal with Harvey Nichols ahead of IPO
                                                                                                              • UK: French Connection
                                                                                                                • … retail revenue falls
                                                                                                                  • … to sell Toast brand
                                                                                                                    • UK: H&M launches wedding range
                                                                                                                      • UK: Jigsaw seals £20 million rescue deal
                                                                                                                        • UK: Missguided to expand into the Middle East
                                                                                                                          • UK: Moss Bros
                                                                                                                            • … issues full year profit warning
                                                                                                                              • … profits fall due to stock shortage and poor December results
                                                                                                                                • UK: Mothercare
                                                                                                                                  • … drafts in KPMG for restructuring as lenders agree to defer financial covenant testing
                                                                                                                                    • … eyes CVA as a way to close stores
                                                                                                                                      • UK: New Look creditors approve CVA plans to reduce rent and cut stores
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Next sales and profits fall after “self-inflicting” errors
                                                                                                                                          • UK: Select seeks CVA to cut store numbers and rent
                                                                                                                                            • UK: Superdry co-founder steps down
                                                                                                                                              • UK: Ted Baker bucks high street trend with sales and profits growth
                                                                                                                                                • UK: Zara to introduce augmented reality on window display
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: JD Sports to acquire The Finish Line for $558 million
                                                                                                                                                  • News Analysis – Home and Household Goods

                                                                                                                                                    • Carpet retailing
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Carpetright
                                                                                                                                                        • … considering CVA as part of turnaround plan
                                                                                                                                                          • … secures emergency loan as it considers CVA
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: ScS sales and profits gradually rise in H1
                                                                                                                                                              • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Bunnings UK seeks buyer as bankers are bought onboard
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Screwfix new marketing campaign sees charity renovated
                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Topps Tiles sales edge up in challenging H1
                                                                                                                                                                      • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: AO full year results to be in line with forecasts
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: GAME retail profit halves in H1
                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Grainger Games sees it suppliers credit limits cut
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Maplin
                                                                                                                                                                                • … job losses continue as administrators fail to find a buyer
                                                                                                                                                                                  • … sale looks unlikely as rivals look at stores
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: DFS profits fall 58% in H1
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Dreams profits and sales grow for fourth consecutive year
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: eve Sleep sales up 132% in 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Made appoints new CFO as it raises £40 million in equity funding
                                                                                                                                                                                            • News Analysis – Online

                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: ASOS to launch own-brand homewares range
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • … retail revenue rises in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • … reveals low food waste levels
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Shop Direct adopts new technologies to improve customer experience
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • News Analysis – Other Retail

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Card Factory profits down over 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Department Stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Debenhams partners with Swoon Editions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: ‘Department store for kids’ coming to Liverpool
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Harrods staff face sales commission cut of 25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: House of Fraser to receive £15 million funding from owner
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Stacey Cartwright to leave Harvey Nichols
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Health & Beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Superdrug
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • … to release mini-documentaries for Pride 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • … to launch vegan pop-up shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sports and Leisure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Halfords CFO leaves for Dixons Carphone
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Toys and Games Retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: The Entertainer introduces Quiet Hour
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Tiger founder to launch new kids and toys chain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Toys R Us to close all stores as it fails to find buyer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Non-food discounters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Poundstretcher credit insurers cut cover
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Economy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Easter high street footfall declines as shopping centres and retail parks increase
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: February retail sales rise in value and volume
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Food inflation falls to 12 month low
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Government proposes plastic bottle and can deposit scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: March retail sales up despite poor weather
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Weather hits footfall in February

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          UK Retail Briefing - April 2018

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