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UK Retail Briefing - February 2019

This month's UK Retail briefing includes:

  • An Analyst comment - Ocado and the implications of the Andover warehouse incident
  • An overview of the latest UK Retail sales.
  • Sector Focus - Household goods retailing - UK.
  • Highlights of the latest UK Retail trend observations
  • Monthly UK retail news headlines and analysis

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment – Ocado and the implications of the Andover warehouse incident

    • The Achilles heel of a warehouse based online service
      • How could it have happened?
        • A note on capacity
          • The core of the business
            • Inherent vulnerability
              • Longer term impact
                • Where next?
                • UK Retail Sales

                  • Key points
                    • Retail sales
                        • Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2017/18
                      • BRC vs ONS
                        • Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, July 2016-January 2019
                      • John Lewis
                        • Figure 3: John Lewis Department Stores: year-on-year growth, Aug 2017-Feb 2019
                      • Inflation
                        • Figure 4: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2018-19
                      • Inflation and wages
                        • Figure 5: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, Jan 2016-Jan 2019
                      • Confidence
                        • Figure 6: Mintel Financial confidence tracker, January 2016-January 2019
                      • Looking forward
                      • Sector Focus – Household Goods

                          • The sector – What’s included
                              • Figure 7: Estimated consumer spending on household goods, by product type, 2018
                              • Figure 8: Consumer spending on household goods, 2014-18
                              • Figure 9: Consumer spending growth, overall versus household goods, % quarter on quarter, Q2 2015-Q3 2018
                              • Figure 10: Growth in spending on household goods products, % change quarter on quarter, Q2 2017-Q3 2018
                            • Prices generally falling to encourage shoppers to spend
                              • Figure 11: Price inflation on household goods categories, % change over 12 months, January 2018-January 2019
                            • Household goods specialists’ sales up 5% year-on-year in 2018
                              • Figure 12: Household goods specialists’ retail sales, monthly % change year-on-year, June 2017-January 2019
                            • Consumer intention to spend on the home tailed off towards end of 2018
                              • Figure 13: Spending and intention to spend on the home, December 2015-January 2019
                            • Residential transactions fall
                              • Figure 14: Residential housing transactions over £40,000, monthly year-on-year % change, seasonally adjusted, January 2018-December 2018
                            • Where next?
                            • Launch Activity and Innovations

                              • UK: Sainsbury’s piloting a meat-alternative section in its meat and fish aisle
                                • UK: Waitrose introduces same day sushi delivery
                                  • UK: Radley partnering with Ascot Racecourse for exclusive collection
                                    • UK: M&S launches AI-powered photo search on mobile site
                                      • UK: IKEA to trial furniture rental scheme
                                      • Headlines for the Month

                                        • Grocers
                                          • Specialist food & drink retailing
                                            • Clothing retailing
                                              • Multi-sector retailing
                                                • Department stores
                                                  • Music and video goods retailing
                                                    • Furniture retailing
                                                      • Book and stationery retailing
                                                        • Home shopping
                                                        • News Analysis – Food & Drink

                                                          • Grocers
                                                            • UK: Asda
                                                              • …expanding tower lockers for click & collect
                                                                • …wins landmark ruling in legal battle over equal pay
                                                                  • UK: Booths posts 3% increase in Christmas sales
                                                                    • UK: Lidl Christmas sales increase 8% year-on-year
                                                                      • UK: Lidl’s new warehouse creates 400 new jobs
                                                                        • UK: Morrisons and Waitrose launch fresh plastic crackdowns
                                                                          • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                            • …Asda merger delayed by 2 months
                                                                              • …extending to trial to help customers with hidden disabilities
                                                                                • UK: Tesco
                                                                                  • …confirms 9,000 jobs at risk as it axes fresh food counters
                                                                                    • …launches new training programme with Jamie Oliver
                                                                                      • …may cut up to 15,000 jobs
                                                                                        • …reports strong Christmas sales
                                                                                          • Specialist food & drink retailing
                                                                                            • UK: Hotel Chocolat group revenue up by 15%
                                                                                              • UK: Oddbins
                                                                                                • …owner files intention to appoint administrators
                                                                                                  • …officially enters administration
                                                                                                  • News Analysis – Clothing & Footwear

                                                                                                    • UK: Bonmarché Christmas sales in line with previous revised guidance
                                                                                                      • UK: Burberry warns of potential cost hits if no-deal Brexit happens
                                                                                                        • UK: Cambridge Satchel Company opening flagship store in Seven Dials
                                                                                                          • UK: discounting at Matalan helped draw in Christmas shoppers
                                                                                                            • UK: FatFace sales improve following tough start to Christmas trading
                                                                                                              • UK: H&M rolling out new retail store concepts
                                                                                                                • UK: Jack Wills calls in advisers to assess financial position
                                                                                                                  • UK: Levi’s report 9% increase in net revenue for its fourth quarter
                                                                                                                    • UK: Monsoon asks landlords for rent reductions
                                                                                                                      • UK: Moss Bros reports improved sales in fourth quarter
                                                                                                                        • UK: New Look strikes a deal to cut £1.3 billion debt pile
                                                                                                                          • UK: Quiz Christmas sales below expectations
                                                                                                                            • UK: Ralph Lauren opening new store at Liverpool One
                                                                                                                              • UK: Seasalt enjoys a record breaking Christmas
                                                                                                                                • UK: Sir Philip Green to conduct a review of Arcadia store estate
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Swarovski opening new Peterborough store
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Whistles ending its menswear range
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Wild & Gorgeous enters administration
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Clarks staff to teach children literacy skills as they fit their shoes
                                                                                                                                        • News Analysis – Mixed Goods

                                                                                                                                          • UK: B&M posts 1.6% fall in like-for-like revenues in its third quarter
                                                                                                                                            • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                              • UK: M&S
                                                                                                                                                • …launches loose fruit and veg trial
                                                                                                                                                  • …poaches new head of food online from Tesco
                                                                                                                                                    • …new take-back scheme recycles plastic into playground equipment
                                                                                                                                                      • …reportedly in talks with Ocado to launch online grocery service
                                                                                                                                                        • …sales down 2.2%
                                                                                                                                                          • …to close more stores affecting 1,045 staff
                                                                                                                                                            • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                                • …chair Ian Cheshire and chief executive Sergio Bucher voted off the board
                                                                                                                                                                  • …like-for-like sales tumble 3.4% over Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Fortnum & Mason posts double-digit growth over Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: House of Fraser Intu stores saved from closure
                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                          • …closing down Knight & Lee store in Southsea
                                                                                                                                                                            • …Qubist partnership allows for staff to take part in social media marketing
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Morleys posts one of its best-ever Christmas trading periods
                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Selfridges to sell bug bars in food hall
                                                                                                                                                                                • News Analysis – Household Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                  • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Robert Dyas swings to loss
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Samsung to replace plastic packaging with sustainable alternatives
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Superfi ceases trading
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Music and video goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: HMV
                                                                                                                                                                                                • …rescued by Sunrise Records
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …flagship Oxford Street store to shut down
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …Mike Ashley in rescue bid for HMV
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …potential buyer emerges for HMV
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: DFS reported a 10% rise in gross sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Heal’s warehouse suffers huge fire
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: IKEA opens new store in Greenwich
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: ScS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …faces battle with Mike Ashley over bid for sofa.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …pulls out of running to buy furniture specialist Sofa.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Homewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Dunelm to sponsor ITV’s This Morning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • News Analysis – Other Retail

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Health & beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Lush opening high-tech concept store in Manchester
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: The Fragrance Shop Christmas trading boosted by online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Paperchase considering a CVA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Smiggle plans to negotiate rent costs with landlords
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: The Works reports first half loss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: WHSmith Christmas sales boosted by travel sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: JD Sports on track to hit the higher end of market expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Garden centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Wyevale confirms sale of another six stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • News Analysis – Online Shopping

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Air & Grace sales soar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: AO.com posts record November
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: ASOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …to launch own-brand homeware collection
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …partners with dance company Candoco
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Boohoo raises profit guidance following strong Christmas quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Emma Mattress Q4 sales surge 170% after Boxing Day success
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Farfetch to prohibit the sale of fur
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Findel posts record-breaking sales over the Christmas period
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Made.com full year revenue hits £100 million mark
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Missguided
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …closing London store just over two years since it opened
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …introduces pay later product to its app
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: MySale warns of first half loss as revenues drop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: N Brown Group sales fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …losses widen but sales grow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …to trial one-hour delivery service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …high-tech robotic distribution centre left severely damaged after fire
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Shop Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …records 3.7% upturn in revenue in the run-up to Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …reviewing 225 HQ staff roles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • News Analysis – Miscellaneous Specialists

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Halfords warns on profits as Christmas sales fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Pets at Home retail like-for-likes up 4.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Toys and games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Game Digital UK like-for-likes down 0.3% during Christmas trading
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Games Workshop reports increase in both its half year sales and profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: The Entertainer records Christmas sales boost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • News Analysis – Economy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: December retail sales up by 2.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Network Rail posts 2.3% growth in total retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: retail sales down 0.7% on a like-for-like basis in December
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: shop price inflation edges up to highest rate since 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                UK Retail Briefing - February 2019

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