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UK Retail Briefing - January 2018

"Christmas was OK, but no better than that. Food retailers outperformed non-food retailers and online grew strongly. So far we have had good figures from the leading food retailers, Aldi and Lidl, John Lewis and a handful of smaller clothing retailers. We have had poor figures from Debenhams and bad ones from House of Fraser and M&S. We think that 2018 will be a tough year for retailers."
- Neil Mason, Head of Retail Research

This month's UK Retail briefing includes:

  • An Analyst comment on an interim round up of Christmas 2017 trading performances.
  • On overview of the latest UK Retail sales for December.
  • Sector Focus - Clothing Retailing - UK.
  • Highlights of the latest UK Retail trend observations
  • Monthly UK retail news headlines and analysis

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment – Christmas 2017 – An Interim Report

      • First indicators
        • The BRC numbers
          • Food retailers
              • Figure 1: Leading food retailers, Christmas 2017
            • Clothing retailers – A very mixed performance
              • Figure 2: Leading clothing retailers, Christmas 2017
            • Department stores – The good, the bad and the ugly
              • Figure 3: Leading department stores, Christmas 2017
            • Some sparkling other performances
              • Online still growing strongly
                • Lessons for 2018
                • Retail Sales

                  • Key points
                    • Retail sales
                      • Figure 4: Retail sales trends, 2016/17
                      • Figure 5: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, Dec 2015-Dec 2017
                    • John Lewis
                      • Figure 6: John Lewis: Year-on-Year Growth, Dec 2016- Jan 2018
                    • Rising inflation
                      • Figure 7: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2016-17
                    • Inflation and wages
                      • Figure 8: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, 2014-17
                    • Confidence
                      • Figure 9: Consumer financial confidence: current state of finances and current state versus last year, Jan 2014-Dec 2017
                    • Looking forward
                    • Sector Focus – Clothing

                      • Large clothing specialists underperform
                        • Figure 10: Annual % change in clothing retail sales, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, Jan 2016-Dec 2017
                      • Consumer spending on clothing grows
                        • Figure 11: Consumer spending on clothing, at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, Q1 2015-Q3 2017
                      • Rising inflation hits clothing
                        • Figure 12: Consumer prices inflation for clothing and overall CPI, Apr-Dec 2017
                      • Christmas trading update
                        • Figure 13: Performance of clothing retailers in the UK over the Christmas period, 2017-18
                      • Market leaders put in a poor performance
                        • Lifestyles retailers benefit from strong brands
                          • Online-only retailers see impressive growth
                            • Cautious outlook for 2018
                            • Innovation and Launch Activity

                              • UK: Asda rolls out vegan mince pies
                                • Poundland to start selling mattresses
                                  • East of England Co-op sells food after ‘best before’ date
                                    • Waitrose launches brussels sprouts wreath
                                      • Sainsbury’s enters partnership with Zizzi
                                        • Sainsbury’s launches pop-up fizzy wine stall
                                        • Headlines for the Month

                                          • Co-ops
                                            • Convenience stores
                                              • Grocers
                                                • Clothing retailing
                                                  • Department stores
                                                    • Electrical retailing
                                                      • Carpet retailing
                                                        • Toys and games retailing
                                                          • Economy
                                                          • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                                            • Co-ops
                                                              • UK: Co-op
                                                                • …and Silentnight launch online bed shop
                                                                  • …to open 100 new food stores
                                                                    • …gives a strong showing for Christmas
                                                                      • …launches partnership with local Derbyshire breweries
                                                                        • Convenience stores
                                                                          • UK: Conviviality buys over 100 Palmer & Harvey stores
                                                                            • UK: Nisa sales rose 17.7% in December
                                                                              • Grocers
                                                                                • UK: Aldi
                                                                                  • …Christmas figures up 15% compared to 2016
                                                                                    • …predicts Specially Selected range will reach £1bn in 2018
                                                                                      • …releases prosecco-infused chicken
                                                                                        • UK: Asda launches ‘Parcel Tower’
                                                                                          • UK: Lidl narrowly beats out Aldi in Christmas sales jump
                                                                                            • UK: Morrisons Christmas sales increased by 2.8%
                                                                                              • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                • …gin sales rise
                                                                                                  • …launches pop-up fizzy wine stall
                                                                                                    • …says it ‘outperformed the market’ over Christmas
                                                                                                      • UK: Tesco
                                                                                                        • …backing healthy eating campaign
                                                                                                          • …unveils line of vegan meals called ‘Wicked Kitchen’
                                                                                                            • …Tesco-Booker deal fully approved
                                                                                                              • UK: Waitrose bans sale of energy drinks to children
                                                                                                                • Off-licences
                                                                                                                  • UK: Majestic Wine sales up 1.2% over Christmas
                                                                                                                  • News Analysis – Clothing and Footwear

                                                                                                                    • UK: Fatface Christmas sales up 12%
                                                                                                                      • UK: Jigsaw reports 7% sales uplift
                                                                                                                        • UK: Joules sales increase by 18.2%
                                                                                                                          • UK: Missguided reports operating loss of £1.4 million
                                                                                                                            • UK: Moss Bros issues profit warning as Christmas sales plummet
                                                                                                                              • UK: Next Christmas sales rise 1.5%
                                                                                                                                • UK: Quiz revenues jump by nearly a third over Christmas
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Sophie Hulme offers instore handbag personalisation
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Superdry
                                                                                                                                      • …attracts former Burberry and Debenhams executives
                                                                                                                                        • …revenues grow nearly 14% in Christmas
                                                                                                                                          • …Superdry Sport becomes official clothing supplier for Invictus Games
                                                                                                                                            • UK: Ted Baker festive sales soar 9%
                                                                                                                                              • UK: The White Company reports difficult trading
                                                                                                                                                • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Shoe Zone sales fall in 2017
                                                                                                                                                    • Shopping centres
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Westfield shopping centres bought for £18.5 billion
                                                                                                                                                      • News Analysis – Multi-sector

                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Mothercare sales down in Christmas period
                                                                                                                                                          • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Debenhams festive sales down 0.8%
                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Harvey Nichols reports losses of £6.7 million
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: House of Fraser
                                                                                                                                                                  • …launches localised pop-up concession plan
                                                                                                                                                                    • …seeks rent reduction for its stores
                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                        • …extends Click & Collect pick up for Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                          • …Christmas sales up 8.9%
                                                                                                                                                                          • News Analysis – Home and Household Goods

                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Bunnings opens small format store in Bicester
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Topps Tiles reports strong growth in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Currys launches same-day delivery service
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Dixons Carphone profits decline 60%
                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Maplin boss quits to head up Gaucho Group
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Housewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Dunelm appoints Nick Wilkinson as new CEO
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Carpet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Carpetright profit falls in H1
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: United Carpets profits fall 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Feather & Black rescued from administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Health & beauty
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Miller Harris unveils new concept store
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • News Analysis – Online

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Gear4Music sales up 42% before Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Ocado revenue rises 11.6% in Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • News Analysis – Other Retail

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Ryman and Robert Dyas sales jump as Boux Avenue falls
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Mountain Warehouse sales soar 38.2% for Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Sports Direct reported profit before tax falls 67%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Toys and games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Games Workshop sales rocket more than 50% in H1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Toys R Us faces collapse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • News Analysis – Economy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Black Friday fails to make an impact on November footfall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: December non-food sales fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Inflation hits near-six year high
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Retail sales perform well for November
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Shop prices fell 0.6% in December

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      UK Retail Briefing - January 2018

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