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UK Retail Briefing - October 2018

This month's UK Retail briefing includes:

  • An Analyst comment on Christmas 2018 
  • On overview of the latest UK Retail sales.
  • Sector Focus - Household goods retailing - UK.
  • Highlights of the latest UK Retail trend observations
  • Monthly UK retail news headlines and analysis

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment – Looking forward to Christmas

      • Retail sales growth stable
        • Figure 1: Retail sales growth, value and volume, 2016-18
      • The economy
        • Figure 2: Real incomes, 2015-18
      • Two other factors need to be mentioned
        • Consumer confidence starts to fall
          • Figure 3: Consumer confidence, 2015-18
        • Are they right to be cautious?
          • Black Friday – did it peak last year?
            • Impact on Christmas sales
              • Christmas 2018
                • And what about 2019 – the Brexit year
                • UK Retail Sales

                  • Key points
                    • Retail sales
                      • Figure 4: Retail sales trends, 2017/18
                      • Figure 5: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, July 2016-September 2018
                    • John Lewis
                      • Figure 6: John Lewis Department Stores: year-on-year growth, Jun 2017-Aug 2018
                    • Inflation
                      • Figure 7: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2017-18
                    • Inflation and wages
                      • Figure 8: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, Jan 2015-Jul 2018
                    • Confidence
                      • Figure 9: Mintel financial confidence tracker, January 2016-September 2018
                    • Looking forward
                    • Sector Focus – Household Goods

                        • The sector – What’s included
                            • Figure 10: Consumer spending on household goods, by product type, 2017
                            • Figure 11: Consumer spending on household goods, 2013-17
                            • Figure 12: Consumer spending growth, overall versus household goods, annual % change, quarterly, 2015-18
                            • Figure 13: Growth in spending on household goods products, quarterly % change year on year, 2017-18
                          • Falling inflation
                            • Figure 14: Price inflation on household goods categories, % change over 12 months, August 2017-August 2018
                          • Specialists’ sales improve in 2018
                            • Figure 15: Household goods specialists’ retail sales, monthly % change year-on-year, 2017-18
                          • Signs of pent-up demand for spending on the home
                            • Figure 16: Spending and intention to spend on the home, January 2016-September 2018
                          • Housing market remains a concern
                            • Figure 17: Residential housing transactions over £40,000, monthly year-on-year % change, seasonally adjusted, September 2017-August 2018
                          • Where next?
                          • Launch Activity and Innovations

                            • UK: Morrisons launches new range of vegan ready meals
                              • UK: Sainsbury's to test beauty aisles
                                • UK: Tesco opens the first two Jack’s discount stores
                                  • UK: Allbirds to open first UK store
                                    • UK: M&S launches clothing range for children with disabilities
                                      • UK: BHS to return to high street with Beales concessions
                                      • Headlines for the Month

                                        • Co-ops
                                          • Grocers
                                            • Other food specialists
                                              • Clothing retailing
                                                • Mixed goods retailing
                                                  • Department stores
                                                    • DIY retailing
                                                      • Music and video goods retailing
                                                        • Furniture retailing
                                                        • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                                          • Co-ops
                                                            • UK: Co-op
                                                              • …profit rises driven by strong food sales
                                                                • …to ban single use plastics
                                                                  • UK: Scotmid Co-operative’s half year profit benefits from hot weather
                                                                    • Grocers
                                                                      • UK: Aldi to create 5,000 new jobs in the UK with 130 new stores
                                                                        • UK: Lidl
                                                                          • …opening 38-acre warehouse in Leeds
                                                                            • …pledges to scrap black plastic packaging
                                                                              • UK: Morrisons
                                                                                • …revenue increases by 4.5% for first half
                                                                                  • …facing employment tribunal claim over equal pay
                                                                                    • UK: Sainsbury's
                                                                                      • …Asda merger could result in 400 stores lost
                                                                                        • …Asda merger referred for further investigation
                                                                                          • UK: Tesco
                                                                                            • …group sales up 12.5%
                                                                                              • …set to launch discount chain Jack’s next week
                                                                                                • …to scrap best before dates on fruit and vegetables
                                                                                                  • …Jamie Oliver to join Tesco to help encourage healthy eating for customers
                                                                                                    • UK: Waitrose steps up action to remove plastic bags
                                                                                                      • …trial 2 hour same day delivery
                                                                                                        • …testing an in-house delivery service
                                                                                                          • Other food specialists
                                                                                                            • UK: Greggs reports strong Q3 sales
                                                                                                              • UK: Hotel Chocolat profits up 13%
                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Clothing and Footwear

                                                                                                                • UK: Bonmarché warns full-year profits will be below expectations
                                                                                                                  • UK: British tailoring house Lutwyche opens first pop-up
                                                                                                                    • UK: Fat Face CEO to step down
                                                                                                                      • UK: French Connection
                                                                                                                        • …confirms company could be sold
                                                                                                                          • …report 2.4% drop in revenue
                                                                                                                            • UK: H&M enjoys sales boost in third quarter
                                                                                                                              • UK: Matalan outperforms rivals
                                                                                                                                • UK: Moss Bros Group report 3.3% fall in total group revenue
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Mulberry opens new Regent Street flagship
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Next full price sales up 4.5% in first half
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Orla Kiely ceases trading
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Primark
                                                                                                                                          • …boosts revenue despite a drop in like-for-like store sales
                                                                                                                                            • …extends sustainable cotton sourcing programme to Pakistan
                                                                                                                                              • UK: Quiz issues profit warning
                                                                                                                                                • UK: River Island
                                                                                                                                                  • …opening new full-sized store at The Grafton, Cambridge
                                                                                                                                                    • …reports decline in annual sales and profit
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Superdry appoints chief product officer and plans launch of new fashion range
                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Sweaty Betty posts jump in profits and sales
                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                            • …sales up 3.5%
                                                                                                                                                              • …signs deal with Timex for a new watch collection
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: TK Maxx FY sales increase 11%
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Office CEO retires after 15 years
                                                                                                                                                                  • News Analysis – Mixed Goods

                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Poundland
                                                                                                                                                                      • …to open stores in 20 former Poundworld locations
                                                                                                                                                                        • …intellectual property put up for sale
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Wilko swings to red
                                                                                                                                                                          • News Analysis – Multi-sector

                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: M&S
                                                                                                                                                                              • …appoints new leadership team for food business
                                                                                                                                                                                • …rolls out new checkout-free payment service
                                                                                                                                                                                  • …Holly Willoughby unveiled as new face of M&S fashion campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                                                        • …could launch CVA as it calls in KPMG
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …director of merchandising exits
                                                                                                                                                                                            • …wants to bring fun back to shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Harvey Nichols rolling out shoppable video screens in-store
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: House of Fraser
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …three stores to close
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …in-house brands to be scrapped from House of Fraser
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …flagship store to see business rates tax to rise 57%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …may take £50 million hit to profits after cutting prices this summer
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …reports a 99% drop in half year profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …collaborating with CupClub to reduce plastic waste
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Household Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: 200 management roles cut in B&Q restructure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Kingfisher reports drop in interim profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Topps Tiles lifts profit forecast following strong fourth-quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Wesfarmer’s former bosses received £760,000 in termination payments despite disastrous takeover
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • News Analysis – Other Retail

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Music and video goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: HMV reports falling sales and profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Carpet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Emma Mattress partners up with Carpetright
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: DFS profits hit by summer heatwave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Dunelm reports 6.7% fall in full-year profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Habitat opens first new flagship in 10 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Harveys launches first ever celebrity partnership with Louise Redknapp
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: ScS Group revenue up £4.3 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Homewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Cath Kidston reviewing store locations to increase footfall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • News Analysis – Online

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Boohoo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …lifts forecast as sales beat expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …poaches Primark executive John Lyttle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Made.com reports a 40% increase in revenue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …adds ‘low plastic’ and ‘recyclable’ categories online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …revenue up 11.5% for Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Sosandar expects to report 407% increase in half year revenue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Card Factory profits rise despite challenging footfall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Paperchase under pressure as main credit insurer reduces cover
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Office Outlet’s CVA is approved
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Waterstones buys rival bookstore Foyles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Chairman of Sports Direct Keith Hellawell is to step down
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Evans Cycles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …seeks £10m in urgent funding from lenders
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …seeks buyer after failing to launch rescue bid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …Halfords reportedly makes a bid to buy Evans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: JD Sports
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …plans to take gym chain nationwide
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …pre-tax profits up 19% following record results
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Nike revenues top predictions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Garden centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Wyevale sells four more garden centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Toys and games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: The Entertainer reports 38% profit uplift
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Shopping centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Icon Outlet at The 02 announces launch date
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Miscellaneous specialist retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Pets at Home Group reports 2.7% like-for-like growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Economy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: August retail sales up by 4.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index reports second month of price inflation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Retail sales down 0.2% in September

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    UK Retail Briefing - October 2018

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