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UK Retail Briefing - October 2019

This month's UK Retail briefing includes:

  • An Analyst comment - Christmas 2019 predictions
  • An overview of the latest UK Retail sales
  • Sector Focus - Online retailing
  • Highlights of the latest UK Retail trend observations
  • Monthly UK retail news headlines and analysis

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment – Looking ahead to Christmas 2019

      • Retail sales so far
        • Figure 1: Retail sales growth, value and volume, Jan 2017- Sep 19
        • Figure 2: Retail sales growth, value and volume, Jan 2018- Sep 2019
      • The economic factors
        • Figure 3: Average weekly earnings: inflation versus wage growth, 2016-19
      • Confidence: unease around Brexit has ramped up
        • Figure 4: Mintel’s Financial Confidence tracker, Jan 2017- Sep 2019
      • What impact would no deal have on Christmas?
          • Figure 5: Impact on Christmas gift spending in the wake of a no deal Brexit, October 2019
        • Timing of purchasing
          • Figure 6: When shoppers begin buying Christmas gifts, December 2018
        • Timing of Black Friday
          • Christmas 2019 – Mintel’s Prediction
          • UK Retail Sales

            • Key points
              • Retail sales
                • Figure 7: Retail sales trends, June 2018 – July 2019
              • BRC vs ONS
                • ‘Small retailers’ versus ‘large retailers’
                  • Figure 8: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, July 2017 - September 2019
                • John Lewis
                  • Figure 9: John Lewis Department Stores: Year-on-Year Growth, January 2018 – October 2019
                • Inflation
                  • Figure 10: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, September 2018 - September 2019
                • Inflation and wages
                  • Figure 11: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, Jan 2016 – Sep 2019
                • Consumer confidence
                  • Figure 12: Mintel Financial confidence tracker, January 2017 – September 2019
                • Looking forward
                • Sector focus – Online retailing

                    • Online sales continue to grow year on year in 2019
                      • Figure 13: All online retail sales, annual growth by month, non-seasonally adjusted, 2018-19
                    • Online share of all retail sales continues to grow
                      • Figure 14: Online share of all retail sales, monthly, 2018-19
                    • Pure players vs store based online sales
                      • Figure 15: Online sales of store based vs pureplay retailers, 2010-19
                    • The rise of mobile commerce to drive online sales in the future
                      • Figure 16: Devices used to shop online, by age, May 2019
                  • Launch Activity and Innovations

                    • UK: Tesco launches its own-label plant-based products
                      • UK: Hotel Chocolat launches standalone beauty store
                        • UK: Poundland ventures into frozen food
                          • UK: Fortnum & Mason new confectionery department
                            • UK: Made.com considers furniture rental service
                            • Headlines for the Month

                              • Co-ops
                                • Grocers
                                  • Other food specialists
                                    • Clothing
                                      • Department stores
                                        • DIY
                                          • Furniture
                                            • Homewares
                                            • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                              • Co-ops
                                                • UK: Co-op Food
                                                  • …posts rising profits
                                                    • …launches gym made from recycled knives
                                                      • Grocers
                                                        • UK: Aldi outlines expansion plans after ‘record’ sales
                                                          • UK: Asda
                                                            • …entire own-brand fresh ready meals to be served in fully recyclable packaging
                                                              • …revenue growth and profit pick-up in FY 2018
                                                                • UK: Booths posts 0.5% rise in revenue to £259.3 million
                                                                  • UK: Iceland launches plastic-free Christmas range
                                                                    • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                      • …eggs go 100% free-range
                                                                        • …posts positive Q2 results
                                                                          • …Nectar scheme goes digital
                                                                            • UK: Tesco
                                                                              • …CEO Dave Lewis departs as the retailer posts its interim results
                                                                                • …replaces Jack’s trial store with own supermarket instead
                                                                                  • …reportedly considering sale of struggling Polish business
                                                                                    • UK: Waitrose ends partnership with Today Development Partners
                                                                                      • Other food specialists
                                                                                        • UK: Greggs posts a 12.4% rise in sales for Q3
                                                                                          • UK: Hotel Chocolat full-year profits climb by 11%
                                                                                          • News Analysis – Clothing and Footwear

                                                                                            • UK: Belstaff opens flagship on Regent Street
                                                                                              • UK: Forever 21 pulls out of Japan
                                                                                                • UK: French Connection cuts losses in its H1 results
                                                                                                  • UK: Government unveils temporary tariffs on clothing products in the event of no-deal Brexit
                                                                                                    • UK: Mamas & Papas drafts in Deloitte advisers to explore sale
                                                                                                      • UK: M&Co profits fall in full-year results
                                                                                                        • UK: Miss Selfridge reports £17.5 million loss
                                                                                                          • UK: Monsoon Accessorize proceeds with CVA as landlord drops legal challenge
                                                                                                            • UK: Moss Bros posts flat H1 results
                                                                                                              • UK: New Look like-for-like sales and revenue drop
                                                                                                                • UK: Next H1 results see 2.7% rise in profit
                                                                                                                  • UK: Oasis and Warehouse
                                                                                                                    • …acquire The Idle Man
                                                                                                                      • …posts 6.5% rise in sales
                                                                                                                        • UK: Primark plans to roll out food and drink formats
                                                                                                                          • UK: River Island posts 3% decrease in revenue as cost pressures amount
                                                                                                                            • UK: Stance open flagship on Carnaby Street
                                                                                                                              • UK: Sweaty Betty turnover hits £56.6 million
                                                                                                                                • UK: Ted Baker posts 2.5% fall in group retail sales
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Topshop and Topman sees £500 million loss
                                                                                                                                    • Footwear
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Foot Locker to open new regional flagship store in Manchester
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Office confirms no major financial restructuring is being considered as it secures £32.5 million
                                                                                                                                        • News Analysis – Mixed Goods

                                                                                                                                          • Multi-sector
                                                                                                                                            • UK: M&S
                                                                                                                                              • …and Infarm bring urban farming to London stores
                                                                                                                                                • …relaunches Per Una
                                                                                                                                                  • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                      • …launches ‘Autism Hour’
                                                                                                                                                        • …secures £50 million in funding to trade over Christmas
                                                                                                                                                          • …wins court battle and continues its CVA implementation
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Harrods
                                                                                                                                                              • …launches skincare emporium
                                                                                                                                                                • …posts its full-year results
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                    • …outlines future partnership with Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                      • …John Lewis Partnership sees losses reach £25.9 million in H1
                                                                                                                                                                        • …threatens to withhold 20% of service charge from landlords in efforts to cut back costs
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Selfridges
                                                                                                                                                                            • …posts a 6% rise in full-year sales
                                                                                                                                                                              • …to open cinema at London flagship
                                                                                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Household Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                • DIY
                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Kingfisher posts declining half-year profits
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Topps Tiles preliminary full-year results rise
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Electrical
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Dixons Carphone invests £4 million into new learning and development centre in Birmingham
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Vodafone extends franchise operations to empty stores
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Furniture
                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: DFS profits rise 31.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: ScS posts positive profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Homewares
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Dunelm sales rise 5.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Online shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: AmazonFresh launches on-demand delivery in the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Angling Direct posts profit rise in H1 results
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Boohoo posts 83% rise in profit in H1 results
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Deliveroo sales rise but losses widen to £232 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Depop reveals expansion plans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Eve Sleep issues profit warning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Farfetch teams up with second-hand clothing platform Thrift+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Ideal Shopping Direct posts £5 million profit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: N Brown returns to profit but sales down 5.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …posts 11.4% rise in revenue for Q3 results
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …completes deal of twin investment into vertical farming venture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Other Retail

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Health & beauty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Body shop launches first concept store on Bond Street
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: The Perfume shop launches first concept store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Book and stationery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Card Factory posts 7.9% profit decline in half-year results
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Clinton owners calls in KPMG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sports and leisure goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: JD Sports posts 46.9% increase in group sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Sports Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …launches official bid for Goals Soccer Centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …closes more Jack Wills Stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …reportedly close House of Fraser stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Jewellers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Beaverbrooks sales increase 2.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Links of London goes into administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Toys and games
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Hobbycraft posts 9% uplift in like-for-like sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • News Analysis – Economy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: BRC figures for September see retail sales fall by 1.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: ONS August results reveal a 2.8% increase in all retail sales

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    UK Retail Briefing - October 2019

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