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UK Retail Briefing - September 2017

This month's UK Retail briefing includes:

  • An Analyst comment on Mintel's Christmas predictions
  • On overview of the latest UK Retail sales
  • Sector Focus - DIY Retailing - UK
  • Highlights of the latest UK Retail trend observations
  • Monthly UK retail news headlines and analysis

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment - It’ll be a rocky ride for retailers this Christmas

      • Real incomes are falling
        • Figure 1: Real incomes: earnings growth and inflation, 2014-17
      • And retail sales are under pressure as well.
        • Figure 2: Retail sales growth 2014-17
      • Inflation rising
        • Figure 3: Retail sales growth, volume and value data 2014-17
      • Borrowing to spend
        • Figure 4: Savings ratio, 2014-17
      • Consumer confidence weakening
        • Figure 5: How people feel about their finances, 2014-17
        • Figure 6: Proportion of consumers who have added to their savings in the last three months, 2015-17
      • Black Friday
        • Putting the evidence together
          • What we forecast
            • What ought to happen and what probably will.
            • Retail Sales

              • Key points
                • Retail sales
                    • Figure 7: Retail sales trends, 2016/17
                    • Figure 8: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, Jul 2015-Aug 2017
                  • John Lewis
                    • Figure 9: John Lewis: Year-on-Year Growth, Aug 2016-Aug 2017
                  • Rising inflation
                    • Figure 10: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2016-17
                  • Inflation and wages
                    • Figure 11: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2014-17
                  • Confidence
                    • Figure 12: Mintel confidence tracker, current financial situation and situation compared to one year earlier, Jan 2014-Aug 17
                  • Looking forward
                  • Sector Focus – DIY Retailing

                      • Major changes
                        • Consumer spending
                          • Figure 13: Spending on DIY products as % all consumer spending, 2000-16
                        • Retail sales
                          • Figure 14: DIY specialists sales as % all retail sales, 2000-16
                          • Figure 15: DIY specialists sales growth, 2016-17
                        • Housing market
                          • Figure 16: Proportion of households renting their home, 2001-16
                          • Figure 17: Housing completions, Feb 2016-Jul 2017
                        • Leading retailers
                          • Kingfisher
                            • Bunnings
                              • Wickes
                                • Where next?
                                • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                  • Lush accepts bitcoin as payment
                                    • ASOS launches male make-up
                                      • Marks & Spencer trialling sushi counters in store in partnership with Wasabi
                                        • UK: Oasis launches in-store virtual reality campaign
                                          • UK: Sainsbury’s trials 30 minute click and collect
                                          • Headlines for the Month

                                            • Grocers
                                              • Clothing retailing
                                                • Multi-sector retailing
                                                  • Department stores
                                                    • DIY retailing
                                                      • Electrical retailing
                                                        • Homewares retailing
                                                          • Home shopping
                                                            • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                            • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                                              • Convenience stores
                                                                • UK: McColl’s sales rise in Q3
                                                                  • UK: Nisa in talks with Co-op after Sainsbury’s delays takeover deal
                                                                    • Grocers
                                                                      • UK: Aldi launches cut-price gluten free range
                                                                        • UK: Asda
                                                                          • …cuts almost 300 jobs in cost-saving drive
                                                                            • …returns to sales growth after three years of decline
                                                                              • UK: Morrisons focuses on British food
                                                                                • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                                  • …announces instore Argos click-and-collect service
                                                                                    • …teams up with NFL
                                                                                      • …trials 30 minute click and collect
                                                                                        • UK: Tesco
                                                                                          • …rolls out vegetables for children
                                                                                            • …to sell mini avocados in bid to fight food waste
                                                                                            • News Analysis – Clothing and Footwear

                                                                                              • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                • Arcadia Group pays £35m to BHS creditors
                                                                                                  • Basler UK enters administration
                                                                                                    • Jack Wills hires new chief marketing officer
                                                                                                      • Lipsy to close website
                                                                                                        • M&Co to open 75 new stores
                                                                                                          • New Look
                                                                                                            • …chief executive to step down
                                                                                                              • …teams up with London Fashion Week
                                                                                                                • …debt draws US investors
                                                                                                                  • Officine Générale to open debut UK store
                                                                                                                    • Reserved opens debut store in London
                                                                                                                      • TJX reports favourable Q2
                                                                                                                        • Topshop and Topman creative directors replaced
                                                                                                                          • Urban Revivo hires Topshop’s former buyer for UK launch
                                                                                                                            • Zara opens UK baby wear store
                                                                                                                              • Jimmy Choo experiences strong growth in first half of the year
                                                                                                                                • Jones Bootmaker has closed nine stores
                                                                                                                                • News Analysis – Multi-sector

                                                                                                                                  • Halfords sees retail sales rise
                                                                                                                                    • M&S
                                                                                                                                      • …to distribute non-food surplus to charity scheme
                                                                                                                                        • …to offload Hong Kong and Macau franchises
                                                                                                                                          • …trials children’s footwear advice service
                                                                                                                                            • Wilko to cut 3,900 jobs
                                                                                                                                              • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                • Debenhams group trading director steps down
                                                                                                                                                  • House of Fraser
                                                                                                                                                    • …HQ cuts online jobs
                                                                                                                                                      • …opens new sustainable store
                                                                                                                                                        • John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                          • …to allow customers to sleep overnight
                                                                                                                                                            • …to launch tradesman service
                                                                                                                                                            • News Analysis – Household Goods

                                                                                                                                                              • B&Q sees a fall in sales in Q2
                                                                                                                                                                • Bunnings sales rise whilst profits fall in debut UK year
                                                                                                                                                                  • Wickes reports positive 2016
                                                                                                                                                                    • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                      • Dixons Carphone revenue rises
                                                                                                                                                                        • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                          • DFS struggles in second half of 2017
                                                                                                                                                                            • Homewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                              • Cath Kidston collaborates with Pinterest
                                                                                                                                                                                • Chief executive of Dunelm steps down
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Laura Ashley sales and profits tumble
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sonder Living expands into the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                    • News Analysis – Home Shopping

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Avenue 32 confirms closure
                                                                                                                                                                                        • sees sales jump in Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Boden reported an increase in sales and profit
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Boohoo appoints non-executive director
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Feelunique sales grow in annual results
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Gear4music posts positive half year result
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …to be sold for £600 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …sold to Apax Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Missguided launching standalone menswear website
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mr Porter opens ‘Kingsman: The Golden Circle’ shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • chief executive leaves
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Hut Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …acquires Australian beauty retailer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …adds to beauty offering with Glossybox acquisition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …to acquire Espa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Very Exclusive hires former Avenue 32 buying director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Health & beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Fragrance Shop profit increases
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Perfume Shop launches mobile store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Card Factory sales rise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Typo and Smiggle increase footprint in the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • WH Smith expects full year results to be in line with expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sports Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …increase stake in Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …issues confident trading update
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Toys and games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Toys R Us profits surge whilst sales fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • GAME
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …and Maplin to launch partnership stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …sales up due to growth in Spanish market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • News Analysis – Economy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …footfall for July decreases
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …non-food deflation reaches four year low
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …retail sales hold up in August
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • ONS data shows a weak July

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                UK Retail Briefing - September 2017

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