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UK Supermarkets market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Supermarkets - UK market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Key points included

  • The Asda and Sainsbury’s merger: 2+3=1?
  • What does the future of supermarkets look like?
  • Waste not, want not: Where do supermarkets sit in the fight against food waste?

Covered in this report

The main focus of this report is the supermarkets of the market leaders – those stores in which people have historically done their main shop. Combining market, company and our consumer research data, we analyse why the shift away from supermarkets has occurred, what the state of play is in 2018 and where the sector is heading next.

The term ‘supermarket’ takes in a very broad selection of store sizes. Tesco for example has stores ranging from 10,000 sq ft small high street supermarkets to over 100,000 sq ft hypermarkets, with an average supermarket size of around 37,000 sq ft. The unifier between these stores is the ability to serve, first and foremost, a shopper’s main shop, or primary, grocery needs. As size increases the range of non-foods and other services such a store can accommodate increases, with the trade-off being the largest stores are usually located outside of urban areas and often need a dedicated trip to visit. It is these largest stores that have been most impacted by the trend to smaller, more frequent shopping habits.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Nick Carroll, a leading analyst in the Retail sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The supermarket sector is growing once more, but this growth has not been enough to stem the tide of spending moving away from large-format stores. This decade has seen unprecedented change in both how grocery shoppers behave and how the sector is structured. Consolidation, on both the retail and supply side, has occurred in recent years and the impending merger of Asda and Sainsbury’s will only intensify this and create a duopoly in the UK grocery sector, with two chains holding almost half the market. With the pressures on the big four not solved solely by increasing scale, further structural change is only likely moving forward. Nick Carroll
Senior Retail Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Grocery sector expected to see sales accelerate in 2018
              • Figure 1: All food retail sales (inc. VAT), 2013-23
            • Supermarket sector is growing once more…
              • Figure 2: Supermarkets’ market size and forecast (inc. VAT), 2013-23
            • …but growth remains slower than the wider sector
              • Figure 3: Estimated breakdown of sector sales, by channel, 2012-18
            • Inflation eases, allowing real incomes to grow once more
              • Figure 4: Average weekly earnings, by consumer price index, January 2015-September 2018
            • Companies and brands
              • Tesco remains the market leader but Sainsbury’s and Asda will create stiff competition
                • Figure 5: Leading grocery retailers: share of all grocery retail sales, 2017
              • Aldi brand in rude health
                • Figure 6: Key metrics for selected brands, August 2018
              • The consumer
                • Most combine a main shop with a top-up
                  • Figure 7: Household grocery buying behaviours, 2015-18
                • Two thirds still spend the most in supermarkets
                  • Figure 8: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-18
                • The majority of grocery shoppers shop with Tesco in a typical month
                  • Figure 9: Grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, August 2018
                • Almost nine in 10 purchase non-foods from supermarkets
                  • Figure 10: Non-food products purchased in-store or online in the past 12 months, August 2018
                • Just under three quarters use food counters
                  • Figure 11: Food counter and café services used in supermarkets, August 2018
                • 38% of grocery shoppers are very satisfied with their retailer of choice
                  • Figure 12: Satisfaction with grocery retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2018
                • Quality of fresh a key area, but consumers are worried about levels of food waste
                  • Figure 13: Attitudes towards shopping for groceries, August 2018
                • What we think
                • Issues and Insights

                  • The Asda and Sainsbury’s merger: 2+3=1?
                    • The facts
                      • The implications
                        • What does the future of supermarkets look like?
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                              • Waste not, want not: Where do supermarkets sit in the fight against food waste?
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                    • Inflation eases, allowing real incomes to grow once more
                                      • Spending on food holding up well
                                        • Supermarket sector returns to growth in 2017…
                                          • …but growth remains slower than the wider sector
                                          • Market Drivers

                                            • Inflation high throughout 2017
                                              • Figure 14: Food and drink inflation, 2013-August 18
                                            • Real wages showing signs of growth in 2018
                                              • Figure 15: Average weekly earnings, by consumer price index, January 2015-September 2018
                                            • Consumer confidence dips at end of summer
                                              • Figure 16: Consumer confidence: current financial situation vs sentiment for the coming year, January 2016-September 2018
                                            • Increasing number of private renters
                                              • Figure 17: UK household tenure status, 2012-17
                                          • Consumer Spending on Food and Drink

                                                • Figure 18: Consumer spending on core food and drink categories, 2013-18
                                              • Spending on food
                                                  • Figure 19: Annual % change in the value, volume and prices in the food category, 2013-18
                                                • How food spending breaks down
                                                    • Figure 20: Composition of consumer spending on food, categories as % of total spending, 2017
                                                  • Spending on non-alcoholic drinks
                                                      • Figure 21: Annual % change in the value, volume and prices in the non-alcoholic beverages category, 2013-18
                                                    • 2017 sees an uplift in alcoholic drink sales
                                                      • Figure 22: Annual % change in the value, volume and prices in the alcoholic beverages category, 2013-18
                                                      • Figure 23: Composition of consumer spending on alcoholic drinks, categories as a % of total spending, 2017
                                                  • Sector Size and Forecast

                                                    • Grocery sector sees growth accelerate driven by inflation
                                                      • Figure 24: All food retail sales (inc. VAT), 2013-23
                                                      • Figure 25: All food retail sales (inc. VAT), market size and forecast, in current and constant prices, 2013-23
                                                    • Supermarket sector size
                                                      • Figure 26: Supermarkets’ market size and forecast (inc. VAT), 2013-23
                                                      • Figure 27: Supermarkets: market size and forecast (inc. VAT), in current and constant prices, 2013-23
                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                    • Channels of Distribution

                                                      • Despite competition, supermarkets still account for half the market
                                                        • Figure 28: Estimated channels of distribution for grocery retail sales, 2017
                                                      • Is the decline bottoming out?
                                                          • Figure 29: Estimated breakdown of sector sales, by channel, 2012-18
                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                        • Most combine a main shop with a top-up
                                                          • Two thirds still spend the most in supermarkets
                                                            • The majority of grocery shoppers shop with Tesco in a typical month
                                                              • Tesco primary shoppers skew younger, whilst Sainsbury’s skew older
                                                                • Almost nine in 10 purchase non-foods from supermarkets
                                                                  • Just under three quarters use food counters
                                                                    • 38% of grocery shoppers are very satisfied with their retailer of choice
                                                                      • Quality of fresh a key area, but consumers are worried about levels of food waste
                                                                      • How They Shop

                                                                        • Nine in 10 responsible
                                                                          • Most combine a main shop with a top-up
                                                                            • Figure 30: Household grocery buying behaviours, 2015-18
                                                                          • Habits are not static
                                                                            • Figure 31: Household grocery buying behaviours, March 2016-September 2018
                                                                          • Older consumers more likely to shop on a top-up basis…
                                                                            • Figure 32: Household grocery buying behaviours, by age, August 2018
                                                                          • …leading to most shopping multiple times per week
                                                                            • Figure 33: Frequency of household grocery buying, August 2018
                                                                            • Figure 34: Household grocery buying behaviours, by frequency of grocery shop, August 2018
                                                                        • Types of Stores Used

                                                                          • Growth in use of discounters and online has led to less reliance on supermarkets
                                                                            • Figure 35: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-18
                                                                          • Who spends the most in supermarkets?
                                                                            • Figure 36: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by age. August 2018
                                                                            • Figure 37: Attitudes towards justification of supermarket visitation, by age, August 2018
                                                                          • Large families, large baskets
                                                                            • Figure 38: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by parental status and gender, August 2018
                                                                        • Where They Shop

                                                                            • Tesco is leading the way…
                                                                              • Figure 39: Grocery retailers used, August 2018
                                                                            • …but Aldi is the big winner
                                                                              • Figure 40: Trend of grocery retailers used, 2016-18
                                                                            • Tesco attracts both primary and secondary shoppers
                                                                              • Figure 41: Grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, August 2018
                                                                            • Just 7% are loyal to one retailer only
                                                                              • Figure 42: Repertoire of secondary retailers used, August 2018
                                                                            • Discounters appeal in a secondary capacity to Asda shoppers
                                                                              • Figure 43: Where leading retailers’ primary shoppers also shop, August 2018
                                                                          • Retailer Demographic Comparison

                                                                              • Tesco attracts the young in a secondary capacity
                                                                                • Figure 44: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by age, August 2018
                                                                                • Figure 45: The discounters: primary and secondary shoppers, by age, August 2018
                                                                              • Large towns a hotspot for Asda
                                                                                • Figure 46: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by location, August 2018
                                                                              • Aldi is making inroads in the North
                                                                                • Figure 47: Leading retailers’ primary shoppers, by region live in, August 2018
                                                                                • Figure 48: Leading retailers’ secondary shoppers, by region live in, August 2018
                                                                              • Asda usage prevalent amongst lower income groups
                                                                                • Figure 49: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by household income bracket, August 2018
                                                                                • Figure 50: Aldi and Lidl, primary and secondary grocery shoppers, by household income bracket, August 2018
                                                                            • Non-foods in Supermarkets

                                                                                • More than four in five purchased non-foods in-store at supermarkets
                                                                                  • Figure 51: Non-food products purchased in-store or online in the past 12 months, August 2018
                                                                                • George the most shopped from brand
                                                                                  • Figure 52: Supermarket brand shopped with in-store or online in the past 12 months, by categories of clothing, August 2018
                                                                                • Only a third of supermarket shoppers are influenced by non-foods
                                                                                  • Figure 53: Behaviours in supermarkets, August 2018
                                                                              • Counter Services and Non-food Services in Supermarkets

                                                                                • Three quarters (73%) of supermarket shoppers use food counters
                                                                                  • Figure 54: Food counter and café services used in supermarkets, August 2018
                                                                                • Most see food counters as more important than non-food areas
                                                                                  • Figure 55: Attitudes towards food counts in supermarkets, by age, August 2018
                                                                                • Refreshing the counter line-up could engage younger consumers
                                                                                  • Figure 56: Food counter and café services used in supermarkets, by age, August 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 57: Repertoire of food-based services typically used in supermarkets, August 2018
                                                                                • Morrisons shoppers far more likely to use counter services
                                                                                  • Figure 58: Food counter and café services used in supermarkets, by retailer where the most is spent with in a typical month, August 2018
                                                                                • Three quarters have used an in-store service in the past year
                                                                                    • Figure 59: Services used in supermarkets in the past year, August 2018
                                                                                • Satisfaction with the Grocery Shopping Experience

                                                                                  • Just over a third say they are very satisfied with their retailer of choice
                                                                                    • Figure 60: Satisfaction with grocery retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2018
                                                                                  • Scope to give more information about where products are sourced
                                                                                    • Figure 61: Key drivers of overall satisfaction with grocery retailers, August 2018
                                                                                  • Retailer comparison
                                                                                    • Figure 62: Overall satisfaction with the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 63: Satisfaction with select factors at the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 64: Satisfaction with select factors at the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2018
                                                                                  • Key Driver Analysis: Methodology
                                                                                      • Figure 65: Overall satisfaction with grocery retailers – Key driver output, August 2018
                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Fresh Foods, Food Waste and Plastics

                                                                                    • Most feel fresh is the most important consideration when choosing where to shop
                                                                                      • Figure 66: Attitudes towards fresh foods in supermarkets, August 2018
                                                                                      • Figure 67: Agreement with attitudes towards fresh foods in supermarkets, by channel where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2018
                                                                                    • Vast majority feel food waste is an important concern
                                                                                        • Figure 68: Attitudes towards food waste in supermarkets, August 2018
                                                                                      • Grocers should be leading on plastic reduction and education
                                                                                          • Figure 69: Attitudes towards plastics and packaging at grocery retailers, August 2018
                                                                                      • Leading Retailers – What You Need to Know

                                                                                        • Morrisons posts strongest growth in 2017
                                                                                          • Sainsbury’s and Asda will push Tesco, but it retains its leading market share
                                                                                            • Tesco also the market leader online
                                                                                              • Aldi and Lidl still have the edge on value-for-money perceptions
                                                                                              • Leading Grocery Retailers – Key Metrics

                                                                                                  • Sales
                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Leading grocery retailers, net sales, 2013-17
                                                                                                    • Stores
                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Leading grocery retailers: Store numbers, 2013-17
                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Leading grocery retailers: annual sales per outlet, 2013-17
                                                                                                    • Sales areas and densities
                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Leading grocery retailers: total sales area, 2013-17
                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Leading grocery retailers: annual sales per sq m, 2013-17
                                                                                                    • Operating profits and margins
                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Leading grocery retailers: operating profits, 2013-17
                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Leading grocery retailers: operating margins, 2013-17
                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                    • Tesco remains the market leader…
                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Leading grocery retailers: share of all grocery retail sales, 2017
                                                                                                    • …but Sainsbury’s plus Asda would create a challenge
                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Leading grocery retailers: share of all grocery retail sales, 2013-18
                                                                                                    • A note on our market share
                                                                                                    • Online

                                                                                                      • Around half of consumers do some online grocery shopping
                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Usage of online grocery shopping, December 2017
                                                                                                      • Online grocery only accounts for 6% of sector sales
                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Estimated breakdown of sector sales, by channel, 2012-18
                                                                                                      • The in-store experience matters
                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Why users shop online for groceries, December 2017
                                                                                                      • Same-day delivery comes at a cost
                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Attitudes towards same-day delivery services, December 2017
                                                                                                      • Tesco is losing market share
                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Leading online grocery retailers’ estimated market shares, 2017
                                                                                                    • Space Allocation Summary

                                                                                                      • Summary data and classifications
                                                                                                          • Figure 84: Food, non-food standard classifications, 2018
                                                                                                        • Convenience comparison overview
                                                                                                          • Figure 85: UK leading food retailers’ hypermarket store format: Convenience comparison overview split, November 2018
                                                                                                          • Figure 86: UK leading food retailers’ superstore format: Convenience comparison overview split, November 2018
                                                                                                          • Figure 87: UK leading food retailers’ smaller supermarkets and discounters: Convenience comparison overview split, November 2018
                                                                                                        • Detailed convenience comparison split
                                                                                                          • Figure 88: UK leading food retailers’ hypermarket store format: Convenience comparison detailed split, November 2018
                                                                                                          • Figure 89: UK leading food retailers’ superstore format: Convenience comparison detailed split, November 2018
                                                                                                          • Figure 90: UK leading food retailers’ smaller supermarkets and discounters: Convenience comparison detailed split, November 2018
                                                                                                        • Food and drink categories split
                                                                                                          • Figure 91: Waitrose, Finchley Road, London, Sushi Daily, November 2018
                                                                                                          • Figure 92: UK leading food retailers: food and drink categories as a percentage of total space allocated to food and drink, November 2018
                                                                                                      • Retail Product Mix

                                                                                                            • Figure 93: Leading food retailers, estimated Sales Mix, 2017/18
                                                                                                            • Figure 94: Leading food retailers: Category sales as % total sales, 2017
                                                                                                            • Figure 95: Leading food retailers, Sales density by broad category, 2017
                                                                                                            • Figure 96: Leading food retailers: Estimated share of key product markets, 2017
                                                                                                        • Innovation and Launch Activity

                                                                                                          • Extended non-grocery offering to encourage consumers to visit supermarkets
                                                                                                            • Tapping into consumer demand for locally produced food
                                                                                                              • Helping customers make healthier food choices when grocery shopping in-store
                                                                                                                • Eco-conscious grocery shopping
                                                                                                                  • Food-to-go experiences
                                                                                                                    • E-bike grocery home delivery service
                                                                                                                      • Speeding up the supermarket checkout process
                                                                                                                      • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                        • Total sector advertising down 8.2% year on year in 2017
                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, 2014-18*
                                                                                                                        • Tesco ramps up advertising spend in 2017
                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure, by leading UK supermarket and online grocers, 2014-17
                                                                                                                        • Advertising spend peaks around key seasonal events in the retail calendar
                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, by month, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                                                        • TV grabs the biggest share of advertising expenditure
                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Percentage media type split of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarkets and online grocers, 2014-18*
                                                                                                                        • What we’ve seen so far in 2018
                                                                                                                          • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                          • Brand Research

                                                                                                                              • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 101: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, October 2018
                                                                                                                                • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 102: Key metrics for selected brands, October 2018
                                                                                                                                • Brand attitudes: Aldi and Lidl’s image highly associated with good value
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 103: Attitudes, by brand, October 2018
                                                                                                                                • Brand personality: Co-op moving away from boring sentiment
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 104: Brand personality – Macro image, October 2018
                                                                                                                                • Aldi, Lidl and Iceland still regarded as somewhat basic
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 105: Brand personality – Micro image, October 2018
                                                                                                                                • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                  • Another good year for Tesco
                                                                                                                                    • Sainsbury’s/Asda potential branding dilemma
                                                                                                                                      • Asda showing signs of recovery
                                                                                                                                        • Morrisons’ accessibility is improving
                                                                                                                                          • Aldi is positively endorsed
                                                                                                                                            • The Co-op’s brand image overhaul is working
                                                                                                                                              • Lidl still marginally behind Aldi
                                                                                                                                                • M&S Simply Food as stylish as ever
                                                                                                                                                  • Iceland pushing eco-credentials
                                                                                                                                                    • Exclusivity helps Waitrose stand out
                                                                                                                                                      • Ocado is highly recommended
                                                                                                                                                        • Amazon widely accessible
                                                                                                                                                        • Aldi

                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                              • Encouraging ‘one-stop shopping’
                                                                                                                                                                • Launching in Italy
                                                                                                                                                                  • Growing harmonisation
                                                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 106: Aldi: estimated group financial performance, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 107: Aldi: Outlet data, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                      • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                      • Asda Group

                                                                                                                                                                          • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                            • Sainsbury’s merger: not the end for the Asda brand but is it good for Sainsbury’s?
                                                                                                                                                                              • Abandoning price guarantee shouldn’t impact perceptions of competitiveness
                                                                                                                                                                                • A greater focus on sustainability
                                                                                                                                                                                  • More flexible on customers’ specific needs
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Digital offer refinements
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Asda Stores Ltd: Breakdown of revenue between sale of goods and fuel, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: Asda Group Ltd: Outlets, by type, 2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Co-operative Food

                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Further move into wholesale brings scale
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Facing a challenge in its traditional territory
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Local sourcing
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Growing closer to the community
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 112: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Iceland Foods

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • New-generation high street stores show above-average performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Swooping on vacant property to expand Food Warehouse format
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Reaching out to new customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Partnership with JD.com to launch an online flagship store in China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Looking to satisfy demand for vegetarian and vegan options
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Awardwinning Luxury range helping change perceptions of the brand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Reducing plastic usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bans palm oil from its own-brand foods in UK first
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 114: Iceland Foods Ltd: UK financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 115: Iceland Foods Ltd: UK outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • J Sainsbury (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • ‘Combination’ with Asda has potential to transform the business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Beauty and clothing sectors targeted for expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Improving payment options to reduce checkout queues
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Delivery enhancements help to refine online offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Expanding reach
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • More reasons to shop in-store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Taking full control of Nectar opens up possibilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 116: J Sainsbury (UK): Group financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 117: J Sainsbury (UK): Outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Marks & Spencer (UK food)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Digital first strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • M&S and Decoded open data science academy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Social-first video content
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Responding to the increasing demand for convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 118: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Group sales performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 119: Marks & Spencer (UK Food): food outlets, by format, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 120: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ocado Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sobeys deal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Kroger deal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • War on plastics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Food redistribution strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 121: Ocado Group plc: Group financial performance, 2012/13-2016/17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 122: Ocado Group plc: Key performance metrics, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Schwarz Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tight controls the key
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Problems in fresh foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Lessons from the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Where next?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 123: Schwarz Group: Group financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 124: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Spar International

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Focused expansion of ultra-convenient stores in high-footfall locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Targeting higher-spending customers with new Market fascia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Online shopping platforms launched in Austria, Slovenia, France and Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • One-click payment solutions to skip the checkout queue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Capitalising on wellbeing trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Enhanced in-store shopping environment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Reducing the impact of the business on the environment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 125: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales, by country, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 126: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe stores, by country, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 127: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales area, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Recent performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cutting costs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Looking for growth – Booker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cutting back on general merchandise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Discounting and Jack’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • So what could go wrong?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Where next?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 128: Tesco: Like-for-like growth, by UK format, Q1 2014/15-Q2 2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 129: Tesco Central Europe and Asia, like-for-like growth, Q1 2016/17-Q2 2018/19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 130: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 131: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Waitrose & Partners

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • All in for online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Improving the in-store experience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • C-store sector looks a struggle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Environment and plastics a key focus of change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Health and wellbeing takes centre stage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 132: Waitrose: Group financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 133: Waitrose: Outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wm Morrison Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Fresh Look store makeover driving supermarket sales growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Morrisons.com expands online delivery catchment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wholesale extending the reach of Morrisons and making the brand accessible to more consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Voice-enabled shopping through Alexa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tapping into meat-free tastes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Expanded non-food product offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • War on plastic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Preparing for Brexit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 134: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 135: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2013/14-2017/18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Financial definitions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Key Driver Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Interpretation of results
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 136: Overall satisfaction with grocery retailers – Key driver output, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 137: Satisfaction with grocery retailers, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Forecast methodology