Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept & Close

US Dairy Milk market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Dairy Milk market, its consumers and the major players who make up that market.

Market

Point of sale market data

In conjunction with IRi, extensive point of sale data shows you what consumers are spending their money on

Market Size

How big is the market today and what is our 5 year forecast? Includes both best & worst case scenarios

Market Segmentation

What are the different segments within the market and how are those individual segments performing?

Consumer

Consumer behaviors

What are consumers looking for, what drives their buying habits and what are their main purchase influencers?

Demographic breakdown

From iGen & Millennials to Baby Boomers & beyond. Who is spending money and what are they spending it on?

Representative sample

We gather our data from real-world consumers, selected to accurately reflect precise global demographics

Players

Company strategy

What are the key players doing, what has been successful for them and what was their marketing spend?

Product innovation

Using data from our Global New Product Database, what products were launched and how well were they perceived?

Opportunities

What happens next, which areas are likely to experience growth and what opportunities exist within the market?

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Megan Hambleton, a leading analyst in the Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Sales in the dairy milk category have declined since 2012 and are expected to continue this trend, as non-dairy milk gains momentum and consumers are faced with a myriad of nutritious, functional beverages to choose from. A bright spot in the category has been flavored and whole milks, especially among parents, as consumers primarily choose milk based on taste and flavor. Sales of traditional milks seen as a commodity may be price driven, but brands that stand out by adding a value to consumers’ lives, with added vitamins or aiding in digestion, can win consumer dollars and remain competitive with other categories. Megan Hambleton
Beverage Analyst

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry and how fast are its rates of growth? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

This report discusses the following key topics:

Definition

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has segmented the market as follows:

  • Refrigerated skim/low-fat milk
  • Refrigerated whole milk
  • Refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk
  • Shelf-stable RTD milk/milk substitutes (primarily regular and flavored milk in aseptic packaging)

Excluded from this report are cream, creamers, condensed/ evaporated milk, powdered milk, and non-dairy milk. Non-dairy milks are covered in Mintel’s Non-Dairy Milks – US, September 2017, and cream and creamers are covered in Mintel’s Coffee – US, July 2017.

What you get

What's included

Why buy from us?

Succeed

Our reports will provide you with market data, consumer research and competitive intelligence to succeed in your market.

Instant Access

Buy now and you'll have instant access to the information you need to make the right decisions.

Opportunities

Find out what's next in the markets that matter to you: where opportunities lie and what challenges you will face.

Trusted

A business Superbrand, Mintel is a source you can trust. We have been defining and refining the Market Intelligence mix since 1972.

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Dairy milk declines
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
          • Some dairy milk drinkers are making a switch
            • Figure 2: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
          • Too many milks?
            • The opportunities
              • Premium products can bring non-dairy consumers back to the dairy market
                • Figure 3: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
              • iGens drive positive associations around non-dairy milk
                • Figure 4: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
              • “Other” milks quickly gain market share
                • Figure 5: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
              • Non-dairy milk evolves with consumer preferences
                • What it means
                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                  • Stark differences in dairy and non-dairy milk sales
                    • Dairy producers struggle to turn a profit
                      • Trendiness of plant-based eating/drinking benefits non-dairy milk
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Dairy milk faces continued losses
                          • Figure 6: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
                        • Bright future for non-dairy milk
                          • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Diary quickly losing market share in the total milk market
                          • Figure 10: Dairy and non-dairy milk market of total milk market, 2013-23
                          • Figure 11: Dairy milk market share by segment, 2018
                        • Almond milk commands the market but watch for the “others”
                          • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 13: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Cereal falls out of fashion
                          • Figure 14: Total sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Veganism gets easier?
                          • Restaurants cut dairy milk from the menu
                            • Figure 15: Change in incidence and penetration of dairy milk on menus, by segment, Q1 2015 - Q1 2018
                            • Figure 16: Top 15 most common uses of non-dairy milk in other beverages, Q1 2018
                        • Market Factors

                          • Interest in digestive health detrimental for dairy milk
                            • Increased production lowers dairy milk price
                              • Figure 17: Average price of milk (gallon)*, January 2008-June 2018
                            • Trade wars could cause dairy producers even more stress
                              • The battle for public perception
                                • Figure 18: YouTube video “The Ingredient List: Real Dairy Milk vs. Flavored Almond Milk - Milk Life TV Commercial Ad”
                            • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                              • Growth occurring among smaller milk companies
                                • Dairy needs to look up for growth
                                  • New players carve out a space in the non-dairy market
                                  • Company and Brand Sales of Dairy and Non-dairy Milk

                                      • Losses across most dairy milk companies
                                        • Figure 19: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                      • Smaller non-dairy brands experience strongest growth
                                        • Figure 20: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                    • What’s Working?

                                      • Lactose-free milks thrive while regular milk falters
                                        • Chocolate milk gains popularity as a post-workout beverage
                                          • Figure 21: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
                                        • Non-dairy milk becomes super-functional and cuts the sugar
                                          • Figure 22: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with select claims, 2014-18*
                                          • Figure 23: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with low/reduced sugar claims, 2014-18*
                                          • Figure 24: Average grams of sugar per 100ml, non-dairy milks, 2014-18*
                                      • What’s Struggling?

                                        • HH declines in dairy milk consumption
                                          • Figure 25: average HH number of glasses of dairy milk consumed per day, among dairy milk buyers, 2013-18
                                        • The non-dairy milk refrigerator gets crowded
                                        • What’s Next?

                                          • Grass-fed milk creates a premium tier within the dairy milk market
                                              • Figure 26: % of dairy milk launches with grass-fed claim, 2014-18
                                              • Figure 27: grass-fed milk purchase intent, T2B 5-pt scale, by consumer segmentation
                                              • Figure 28: Grass-fed vs non-grass-fed milk perception
                                            • Dairy milk due for a packaging update
                                              • Meet the new wave of non-dairy milks
                                                • Non-dairy milks/brands to watch
                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Dairy milk has high purchase incidence but lacks positive associations
                                                    • Some consumers are dropping dairy milk because of digestion concerns
                                                      • iGens will drive non-dairy milk forward
                                                        • Premium functional products are an opportunity for both dairy and non-dairy milks
                                                        • Dairy and Non-dairy Milk Purchases

                                                          • Dairy milk is still a HH staple
                                                            • Figure 29: Dairy milk purchases, June 2018
                                                          • Young affluent consumers purchase premium dairy milks
                                                            • Figure 30: Dairy milk purchases, by generation and age/income, June 2018
                                                          • Almond dominates non-dairy milk market
                                                            • Figure 31: Non-dairy milk purchases, June 2018
                                                            • Figure 32: Repertoire analysis, non-dairy milks purchased, June 2018
                                                          • Parents are key dairy milk buyers
                                                            • Figure 33: milk purchases, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
                                                        • Change in Milk Purchases and Switching Behavior Deep Dive

                                                          • Reported increase in non-dairy milk purchases
                                                            • Figure 34: Change in milk purchases, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
                                                          • Dairy milk buyers are making a switch
                                                            • Figure 35: Changes in non-dairy milk purchases, among those buying dairy milk more/less, June 2018
                                                            • Figure 36: Changes in dairy milk purchases, among those buying non-dairy milk more/less, June 2018
                                                          • Why dairy milk drinkers are switching to non-dairy
                                                            • Figure 37: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
                                                          • Why non-dairy milk drinkers are switching to dairy
                                                            • Figure 38: dairy milk associations, by those buying non-dairy dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
                                                            • Figure 39: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
                                                        • Dairy and Non-dairy Milk Uses

                                                          • Dairy milk is versatile, but its usage frequency is down
                                                            • Figure 40: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
                                                          • iGens use non-dairy milk in a variety of applications
                                                            • Figure 41: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, by generation, June 2018
                                                        • Milk Associations

                                                          • Non-dairy milk captures positive associations
                                                              • Figure 42: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, among buyers, June 2018
                                                            • iGens focus on the healthy benefits of non-dairy milk
                                                              • Figure 43: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
                                                              • Figure 44: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
                                                          • Milk Important Factors

                                                            • Dairy milk can attract non-dairy buyers via functional, premium claims
                                                              • Figure 45: Milk important factors, by milk type buyers, June 2018
                                                          • Milk Innovation Interest

                                                            • The dairy milk buyer’s paradox
                                                              • Figure 46: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
                                                              • Figure 47: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
                                                            • Millennial parents on the lookout for functional milks
                                                              • Figure 48: Milk innovation interest, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                            • Data sources
                                                              • Sales data
                                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                                    • Mintel Menu Insights
                                                                      • Purchase Intelligence
                                                                        • Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
                                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                • Figure 58: MULO sales of refrigerated dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                • Figure 59: MULO sales of shelf stable dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                • Figure 60: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                • Figure 61: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                • Figure 62: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                • Figure 63: MULO sales of other non-dairy, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                              • Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles
                                                                                • Figure 64: Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles, indexed against all consumers
                                                                                • Figure 65: Correspondence analysis, milk and non-dairy milk, usage occasions, June 2018
                                                                                • Figure 66: Correspondence analysis, dairy and non-dairy milk associations, by milk type, June 2018