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US In-store Bakeries market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the In-Store Bakeries market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definition:

  • ISBs (in-store bakeries) are defined as bakeries within supermarkets, mass merchandisers, or club stores that offer an assortment of bakery products, such as breads, cakes, pies, bagels, cookies, doughnuts, and muffins

Excluded: retail “stand-alone” bakeries, retail bakery specialty stores, bakeries in other types of locations, such as restaurants or convenience stores,in-store cafés

Key points included

  • Strong ties to special occasions overshadow everyday ones
  • ISBs are just not top-of-mind with non-users
  • Overall penetration has room for growth

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by William Roberts Jr, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Sales for in-store bakeries continue to grow steadily, reaching nearly $13 billion in 2018 and expected to hit $14.5 billion by 2023. Amid such growth, there is still potential to expand further, as penetration among consumers is somewhat low (just over 50%). Key for the category will be expanding beyond its perception as a resource for events and special occasions. William Roberts Jr
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Overall penetration has room for growth
            • Figure 1: Bakery purchase, November 2018
          • Strong ties to special occasions overshadow everyday ones
            • Figure 2: Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2013-23
          • ISBs are just not top-of-mind with non-users
            • Figure 3: Reasons for not purchasing from an in-store bakery, November 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Nudge loyalists and non-users into everyday occasions
              • Figure 4: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, November 2018
            • Establish ISBs as a destination with product promotion…
              • …and activate tech to connect with shoppers
                • Figure 5: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, November 2018
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Sales growth to continue for in-store bakeries
                  • Sweet successes
                    • Packaged baked options face challenges
                      • Economic factors suggest increased spending
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • ISBs to continue steady growth
                          • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2013-23
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Desserts enjoy sweet success
                          • Figure 8: Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2013-23
                          • Figure 8: Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2013-23
                      • Market Perspective

                          • Can in-store bakeries tap into the snack trend?
                          • Market Factors

                            • Consumer confidence, rising disposable income bodes well for indulgent purchasing
                              • Figure 9: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2018
                              • Figure 10: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2017-October 2018
                            • Smaller households equals fewer special-occasion needs
                              • Figure 11: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                            • In-store bakery goods step away from no additives/preservatives claim
                              • Instead, ISBs turn to free-froms
                                • Smart signals
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Free-from options
                                    • Figure 12: GNPD fresh bakery launches, by free-from claim, 2014-18
                                • What’s Struggling?

                                  • Price matters strongly
                                      • Figure 13: Fresh bakery launches with no additives/preservatives, 2018
                                      • Figure 14: Key attribute ratings for SE Grocers Bakery Small Croissants
                                    • Claims gone wrong: no additives/preservatives mitigates freshness
                                      • Figure 15: GNPD fresh bakery launches, by natural/healthy claim, 2014-18
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Getting smart to drive connections
                                      • Package deals
                                        • International expansion
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • In-store bakeries resonating with parents
                                            • Same day fresh appeal
                                              • Still room to drive awareness
                                                • BFY indulgences?
                                                  • Local news
                                                  • Bakery Item Purchase

                                                    • Half of consumers utilize in-store bakeries
                                                      • Figure 16: Bakery purchase, November 2018
                                                    • Popularity surges among parents
                                                      • Figure 17: Bakery purchase, by presence and age of children, November 2018
                                                    • Room for growth among Hispanic Millennials
                                                      • Figure 18: Bakery purchase, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2018
                                                  • Frequency of In-store Bakery Purchase

                                                    • Loyalists and non-users need a nudge into everyday occasions
                                                      • Figure 19: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, November 2018
                                                    • Parents are the low-hanging everyday opportunity
                                                      • Figure 20: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, by presence and age of children, November 2018
                                                  • Reasons for Purchasing from an In-store Bakery

                                                    • Freshness and a little creativity drive purchase
                                                      • Figure 21: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, November 2018
                                                    • Consider smaller households
                                                      • Figure 22: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, by age, November 2018
                                                    • Broadly engaged younger families suggest positive future growth
                                                      • Figure 23: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, by presence and age of children, November 2018
                                                  • Why In-store Bakeries Are Not Used

                                                    • ISBs are just not top-of-mind with non-users
                                                      • Figure 24: Reasons for not purchasing from an in-store bakery, November 2018
                                                  • Claim Interest among Baked Goods

                                                    • Natural, healthy appeal
                                                      • Figure 25: Claims of interest in baked goods, November 2018
                                                    • Low-sugar, grains hold interest with older consumers
                                                      • Figure 26: Claims of interest in baked goods, by generation, November 2018
                                                    • Stacking up claims: in-store versus stand-alone bakery
                                                      • Figure 27: Ingredient claims of interest in baked goods, by baked good purchase, November 2018
                                                    • Merging indulgence with healthy
                                                      • Figure 28: TURF analysis – Ingredient claims of interest in baked goods, November 2018
                                                  • Smaller-size Options from In-store Bakeries

                                                    • Getting small
                                                      • Figure 29: Interest in smaller-sized options from in-store bakeries, November 2018
                                                    • Mini desserts resonate
                                                      • Figure 30: Interest in smaller-sized options from in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
                                                  • Multipack Interest in In-store Bakeries

                                                    • ISB patrons buy for volume in multipacks
                                                      • Figure 31: Interest in multipacks from in-store bakeries, November 2018
                                                  • Special Occasion Usage from In-store Bakeries

                                                    • #Special-occasion cakes have room to grow
                                                      • Figure 32: Special occasion usage from in-store bakeries, November 2018
                                                    • Growing ISB usage as households shrink
                                                      • Figure 33: Special occasion usage from in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
                                                  • Seasonal/unique Option Interest from In-store Bakeries

                                                    • Non-dessert baked goods
                                                      • Figure 34: Seasonal/unique option interest from in-store bakeries, November 2018
                                                    • Artisan breads appeal to older and younger consumers
                                                      • Figure 35: Seasonal/unique option interest from in-store bakeries, by age, November 2018
                                                    • Authentic concepts to appeal to older Hispanic consumers
                                                      • Figure 36: Seasonal/unique option interest from in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2018
                                                  • Opportunities for In-store Bakeries

                                                    • Leveraging local
                                                      • Figure 37: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, November 2018
                                                    • Healthy role for baked goods
                                                      • Figure 38: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, by age, November 2018
                                                      • Figure 39: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
                                                    • Local’s role in drawing in consumers to in-store bakeries
                                                      • Figure 40: TURF analysis – Opportunities for in-store bakeries, November 2018
                                                  • Attitudes toward In-store Bakeries

                                                    • ISBs as a destination
                                                      • Figure 41: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, November 2018
                                                    • Potential for kits with parents
                                                      • Figure 42: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
                                                  • Food and Drink Consumer Segmentation

                                                        • Figure 43: Bakery purchase, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
                                                        • Figure 44: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
                                                      • Freshness resonates with Alyssa and Karen
                                                          • Figure 45: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
                                                        • Leveraging convenience
                                                            • Figure 46: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                          • Data sources
                                                            • Sales data
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                      • Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
                                                                      • Appendix – The Market

                                                                          • Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 49: Total US retail sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                                                                          • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2013-23
                                                                          • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                      • TURF Analysis – Methodology

                                                                          • Figure 58: TURF analysis – Ingredient claims of interest in baked goods, November 2018
                                                                      • TURF Analysis – Methodology

                                                                          • Figure 59: Table – TURF analysis – Areas of interest from in-store bakeries, November 2018