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Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the In-Store Bakeries - US market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Key points included

  • Natural claims could boost ISBs
  • Capitalizing on the local connection
  • Indulgence dominates, and the future may be in alternative ingredients

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definition:


ISBs are defined as bakeries within supermarkets, mass merchandisers or club stores that offer an assortment of bakery products, such as breads, cakes, pies, bagels, cookies, doughnuts and muffins. Unlike the bread aisles found in these stores, ISBs generally have a dedicated counter space with staff to assist customers and often bake products on-site. In addition to the ISBs themselves, where appropriate, leading suppliers to ISBs are also discussed.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by William Roberts Jr, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Sales at in-store bakeries have increased steadily each year for the past half-decade, growing 15% since 2014 to reach $13.5 billion, and the category still seems to have a significant amount of potential. Younger consumers have yet to significantly engage in the category but should do so as they establish households of their own. Disposable income levels continue to grow, further boding well for the category, particularly considering the relatively strong degree of consumer interest in novel flavor concepts, locally made goods and freshness William Roberts Jr
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

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What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Top takeaways
          • Market overview
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
          • The issues
            • Competitors much more likely to use natural claims than ISBs
              • Figure 2: “Natural” baked good introductions, US, 2015-19
            • Plastic packaging prevalent in baked goods but a concern to consumers
              • Figure 3: Private label, shelf-stable baked good introductions (including in-store bakeries), by packaging material, 2017-19
            • The opportunities
              • Fundamental sampling will draw consumers
                • Figure 4: Increasing ISB purchase, November 2019
              • Flavor and format innovations can engage younger consumers
                • Figure 5: ISB interest, by age, November 2019
              • Position the ISB as a destination
                • Figure 6: Opinions of ISBs, by parental status, November 2019
              • Alternative future
                • Figure 7: Interest in flour alternatives in breads, by usage occasion, by age, November 2019
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • ISBs’ sales growth speeds up
                • Indulgent goods dominate ISB market share
                  • Sweetener concerns could prove problematic
                    • Strong economy bodes well for ISBs
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • In-store bakeries continue to rise
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2014-24
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Indulgences’ prominent role in ISBs
                        • Figure 10: Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2017 and 2019
                    • Market Perspective

                      • ISB products running a tight race with packaged goods
                        • Figure 11: Baked good purchases in the past three months, November 2019
                      • Convenience and freshness propel the perimeter
                        • Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of center-of-store and perimeter-of-store foods, in billions, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Sweet and sugar concerns grow
                        • Figure 13: Sweetener usage trend, December 2018
                    • Market Factors

                      • ISB usage highest among higher-income households
                        • Figure 14: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2017-October 2019
                      • ISBs may leverage both indulgence and wellness
                        • Figure 15: Perception of lifestyle in terms of health, July 2015-August 2018
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Knead natural into ISB recipe
                        • Think beyond plastic for packaging
                        • What’s Happening

                          • ISBs missing the seasonal flavor opportunity
                            • Figure 16: Flavor importance in desserts, by various demographics, November 2019
                            • Figure 17: Seasonal flavor interest, April 2019
                          • Natural claims underused among ISBs
                            • Figure 18: “Natural” baked good introductions, US, 2015-19
                            • Figure 19: Consumer attributes, natural private label shelf-stable baked goods* versus shelf-stable baked goods without natural claims, 2017-19
                        • What to Watch

                            • Indulgence can be a partner to wellness
                              • Packaging can use a sustainable refresh
                                • Figure 20: Environmental responsibility, March 2019
                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                              • ISBs fall short among younger consumers
                                • “Locally made” proves compelling to bakery consumers
                                  • Environmentally friendly packaging resonating with younger generations
                                    • Freshness draws interest in cakes from ISBs
                                      • Novel ingredient innovation could draw younger consumers
                                        • ISBs differentiate retailers from competitors
                                          • Flavor innovation intrigues a number of consumer segments
                                          • Baked Good Purchase

                                            • ISB purchase rates on par with competitors
                                              • Figure 21: Baked good purchase, November 2019
                                            • Younger consumers less active ISB customers
                                              • Figure 22: Baked good purchase, by age, November 2019
                                            • Parents notably more likely to turn to ISBs
                                              • Figure 23: Baked good purchase, by parental status, November 2019
                                            • Household income impacts ISB engagement
                                              • Figure 24: Baked good purchase, by household income, November 2019
                                            • ISBs maintain popularity among Hispanic consumers
                                              • Figure 25: Baked good purchase, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2019
                                            • Promote the ISB to packaged loyalists
                                              • Figure 26: Baked good purchase recency, November 2019
                                          • In-store Bakery Product Drivers

                                            • Locally made tops purchase driver list
                                              • Figure 27: ISB interest, November 2019
                                            • Younger consumers hungry for flavor and format exploration
                                              • Figure 28: ISB interest, by age, November 2019
                                            • Natural/organic claims appeal to Hispanic consumers
                                              • Figure 29: ISB interest, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2019
                                            • Brand messaging should strongly focus on local
                                              • Figure 30: Baked good purchase recency, by ISB interest, November 2019
                                          • Increasing ISB Purchase

                                            • A little taste will go a long way
                                              • Figure 31: Increasing ISB purchase, November 2019
                                            • Environmentally friendly packaging concepts resonate
                                              • Figure 32: Increasing ISB purchase, by age, November 2019
                                            • Think beyond the special occasion
                                              • Figure 33: Increasing ISB purchase, by parental status, November 2019
                                            • Sampling opens a variety of opportunities
                                              • Figure 34: TURF analysis – Increasing ISB purchase, November 2019
                                          • Important Dessert Attributes

                                            • Freshness invaluable to sweet goods purchase
                                              • Figure 35: Important dessert attributes, November 2019
                                            • Bold flavors to appeal to Millennials, Gen Zers
                                              • Figure 36: Important dessert attributes, by generation, November 2019
                                            • Portions, portability prove popular among parents
                                              • Figure 37: Important dessert attributes, by parental status, November 2019
                                          • Attributes for Bread Usage Occasions

                                            • In-store bakery items in the online age
                                              • Figure 38: Attributes for bread usage occasions, November 2019
                                              • Figure 39: Attributes for bread usage occasions, weekends versus weekdays, November 2019
                                            • Wheat flour alternatives could expand appeal among younger consumers
                                              • Figure 40: Attributes for bread usage occasions, by age, November 2019
                                          • Opinions of ISBs

                                            • ISBs are a destination driver
                                              • Figure 41: Opinions of ISBs, November 2019
                                            • Offsetting ISB concerns among younger consumers
                                              • Figure 42: Opinions of ISBs, by age, November 2019
                                            • ISBs provide supermarkets a point of differentiation
                                              • Figure 43: Opinions of ISBs, by parental status, November 2019
                                          • In-store Bakeries by Food/Drink Consumer Segmentation

                                            • Food and drink consumer segmentation
                                                • Figure 44: Food/drink consumer segmentation of private label food/drink, September 2019
                                              • Adventure Eaters drawn to innovative flavors, organic claim
                                                • Figure 45: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by food/drink consumer segmentation, November 2019
                                              • Fresh appeal to Quality Seekers
                                                • Figure 46: Attributes of interest in ISBs, by consumer food/drink segmentation, November 2019
                                              • Convenience of ISBs likely appeals to Time Savers
                                                • Figure 47: Important cake attributes, by consumer food/drink segmentation, November 2019
                                              • Sampling for Value Chasers
                                                • Figure 48: Items purchased from an ISB in the past week, by food/drink consumer segmentation, November 2019
                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                              • Data sources
                                                • Sales data
                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                        • Appendix – The Market

                                                            • Figure 49: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                            • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                        • Appendix – TURF Methodology

                                                            • Figure 59: Table – TURF analysis – ISB interest, November 2019
                                                            • Figure 60: Table – TURF analysis – Increasing ISB purchase, November 2019

                                                        About the report

                                                        This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                        • The Consumer

                                                          What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                        • The Competitors

                                                          Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                        • The Market

                                                          Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                        • The Innovations

                                                          New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                        • The Opportunities

                                                          Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                        • The Trends

                                                          What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                        Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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