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US In-store Bakeries market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the In-store Bakeries market, its consumers and the major players who make up that market.

Market

Point of sale market data

In conjunction with IRi, extensive point of sale data shows you what consumers are spending their money on

Market Size

How big is the market today and what is our 5 year forecast? Includes both best & worst case scenarios

Market Segmentation

What are the different segments within the market and how are those individual segments performing?

Consumer

Consumer behaviors

What are consumers looking for, what drives their buying habits and what are their main purchase influencers?

Demographic breakdown

From iGen & Millennials to Baby Boomers & beyond. Who is spending money and what are they spending it on?

Representative sample

We gather our data from real-world consumers, selected to accurately reflect precise global demographics

Players

Company strategy

What are the key players doing, what has been successful for them and what was their marketing spend?

Product innovation

Using data from our Global New Product Database, what products were launched and how well were they perceived?

Opportunities

What happens next, which areas are likely to experience growth and what opportunities exist within the market?

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Williams Roberts, Jr, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Sales at in-store bakeries continue to rise. Even as consumers indicate they are seeking healthier foods, they are clearly open to the occasional indulgence, and in-store bakeries are poised to capitalize on consumer interest in higher-quality baked goods that the consumers may feel uncomfortable, unwilling, or unskilled enough to make themselves. Williams Roberts, Jr
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry and how fast are its rates of growth? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

This report discusses the following key topics:

Definition

ISBs (in-store bakeries) are defined as bakeries within supermarkets, mass merchandisers, or club stores that offer an assortment of bakery products, such as breads, cakes, pies, bagels, cookies, doughnuts, and muffins. Unlike the bread aisles found in these stores, ISBs generally have a dedicated counter space with staff to assist customers and often bake products on-site. In addition to the ISBs themselves, where appropriate, leading suppliers to ISBs are also discussed.

With the exception of sections with Mintel’s custom consumer survey data, the following are excluded from this Report:

  • retail “stand-alone” bakeries
  • retail bakery specialty stores
  • bakeries in other types of locations, such as restaurants or convenience stores
  • in-store cafés

This Report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s In-store Bakeries – US, June 2015, as well as the March 2013, August 2012, and August 2010 Reports of the same name.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • In-store bakery sales growth expected to continue
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
          • Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
            • Figure 2: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
          • Need to evolve appeal beyond larger households
            • The opportunities
              • In-store bakeries as an economical indulgence
                • Figure 3: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
              • Flavor affording opportunity
                • Figure 4: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
              • Leveraging freshness and variety
                • Figure 5: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Continuing sales increases expected for the category
                  • Strong growth in dessert sales for in-store bakeries
                    • Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
                      • Declining number of households with children
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • In-store bakeries projected to see continued sales increases
                          • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Breakfast emerging as in-store bakery occasion
                          • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Desserts register strong sales growth over last two years
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices in thousands, 2015 and 2017, % change from 2015 in parentheses
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Prepared cakes/pies see rising sales but fall short in terms of fresh
                          • Figure 10: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2013 and 2015
                        • Competition from stand-alone bakeries
                          • Figure 11: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                      • Market Factors

                        • Consumer spending on food trending higher
                          • Figure 12: Food sales at home and away from home, January 2003-January 2017
                        • Households with children more likely to turn to ISB offerings
                          • Figure 13: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
                        • Hispanic consumers over index in the use of in-store bakeries
                          • Figure 14: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Price matters but not as strongly as some other attributes
                          • Health attributes may deter consumers from more-indulgent options
                            • Free-from could communicate natural
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Price matters
                                • Figure 15: Notable in-store bakery dessert launches, 2017
                            • What’s Struggling?

                              • Health, a possible deterrent in certain segments
                                • Figure 16: True Goodness by Meijer Organic Whole Grain Hot Dog Buns, 2017
                            • What’s Next?

                              • Free-from claims could resonate
                                • Flavor affording opportunity
                                  • Figure 17: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
                                  • Figure 18: Walmart Marketside Pepperoni Cheese Bread, 2017
                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                • Younger generations turning to in-store bakeries
                                  • Strong interest in freshness
                                    • Naturally good
                                      • Variety resonating with younger consumers
                                        • Occasional opportunities
                                          • Consumers seeking organic options
                                            • Diverse options for an increasingly diverse population
                                              • In-store bakery usage chiefly in supermarkets
                                                • ISB-loyal consumers and price
                                                  • Consumers say they value freshness even over price
                                                  • Purchase Frequency

                                                    • Consumption of baked goods
                                                      • Figure 19: Purchase frequency, April 2017
                                                    • Opportunities in increasing frequency
                                                      • Figure 20: Purchase frequency, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Evolving beyond larger households
                                                      • Figure 21: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                      • Figure 22: Purchase frequency, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                    • Distinct opportunities among younger Hispanic consumers
                                                      • Figure 23: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Purchase Factors

                                                    • Fresh factors most strongly
                                                      • Figure 24: Purchase factors, April 2017
                                                    • Freshness and variety appeal to frequent shoppers
                                                      • Figure 25: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
                                                    • Factors to increase purchase
                                                      • Figure 26: TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, April 2017
                                                  • Natural Factors

                                                    • Nutrients resonate with younger consumers
                                                      • Figure 27: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Younger, higher-income consumers factoring nutrients and lack of allergens
                                                      • Figure 28: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
                                                      • Figure 29: Purchase factors, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                    • Older Hispanic consumers strongly likely to consider health
                                                      • Figure 30: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Flavor Factors

                                                    • Fresh resonates most strongly with youngest consumers
                                                      • Figure 31: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Variety appeals to younger households with higher income levels
                                                      • Figure 32: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
                                                    • Flavor’s strong appeal to Hispanic Millennials
                                                      • Figure 33: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Usage

                                                    • Potential in special occasions
                                                      • Figure 34: Usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                    • Hispanics more likely to use for special occasions
                                                      • Figure 35: Usage of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Increasing Purchase

                                                    • Health concerns offset by portioning
                                                      • Figure 36: Increasing purchase, April 2017
                                                    • Organic claims resonate strongly with younger generations
                                                      • Figure 37: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Organic options may resonate with consumers seeking healthy treats
                                                      • Figure 38: Increasing purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
                                                    • Hispanic Millennial attitudes reflect Millennials’ overall
                                                      • Figure 39: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Flavor Improvements

                                                    • In-store bakeries can assist during time-stressed holiday seasons
                                                      • Figure 40: Increasing purchase, April 2017
                                                    • Time savings from in-store bakeries
                                                      • Figure 41: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Diverse options could reach a diverse audience
                                                      • Figure 42: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                    • Maximizing in-store bakery potential
                                                      • Figure 43: TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017
                                                  • Purchase Location

                                                    • Supermarket ISBs resonating more so than other retailers’
                                                      • Figure 44: Purchase location, April 2017
                                                    • Unexplored potential for mass merchandisers’ and natural stores’ in-store bakeries
                                                      • Figure 45: Purchase location, April 2017
                                                    • In-store bakery may create a sense of consumer loyalty
                                                      • Figure 46: Purchase location, by repertoire of usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                  • Brands and Baked

                                                    • Quality factors strongly among bakery items
                                                      • Figure 47: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                    • Baked goods as reassurance
                                                      • Figure 48: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
                                                    • Hispanic Millennial moms appear to be gatekeepers
                                                      • Figure 49: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                    • Frequent ISB consumers appear less impacted by price
                                                      • Figure 50: Purchase frequency, by opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
                                                  • Quality of Baked Goods

                                                    • Fresh appears more impactful even than price
                                                      • Figure 51: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by gender and age, April 2017
                                                    • Fresh appreciation among Hispanic non-Millennials, in particular
                                                      • Figure 52: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Impact of In-store Competition

                                                    • Bakery expertise could be a draw
                                                      • Figure 53: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by age, April 2017
                                                    • Leveraging expertise via social media and apps
                                                      • Figure 54: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                    • Data sources
                                                      • Sales data
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 57: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                • Figure 66: Bread types eaten, by gender, 2016
                                                                • Figure 67: Bread types eaten, by age, 2016
                                                                • Figure 68: Bread types eaten, by race, 2016
                                                                • Figure 69: Bread types eaten, by Hispanic origin, 2016
                                                                • Figure 70: Bread types eaten, by household income, 2016
                                                                • Figure 71: Bread types eaten, by education level, 2016
                                                                • Figure 72: Bread types eaten, by presence of children in the household, 2016
                                                                • Figure 73: Bread types eaten, by region, 2016
                                                            • TURF Analysis Methodology

                                                              • Methodology
                                                                • Figure 74: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, March 2017
                                                                • Figure 75: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017