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US Milk and Non-Dairy Milk Market Report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Milk and Non-Dairy Milk market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Key points included

  • Diet trends shape sales
  • Dairy milk sales are steadily declining
  • Stagnant purchase patterns hinder growth
  • Opportunities to diversify usage occasions

Covered in this report

The scope of this report includes both the dairy and non-dairy milk markets. Each market has its own market size and forecast.

Dairy milk

  • Refrigerated dairy milks (eg skim/lowfat milk, whole milk, flavored milk)
  • Shelf-stable RTD milk (eg unrefrigerated dairy milk)

Non-dairy milk

  • Almond milk
  • Coconut milk
  • Soy milk
  • Other non-dairy milk (eg cashew milk, oat milk)
  • Shelf-stable, RTD non-dairy milk

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Madelyn Franz, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Milk sales are composed of two opposing, connected markets: the struggling, but sizable dairy milk market and the growing non-dairy milk market. While traditional dairy milks are still considered a household staple by most consumers, sales are declining due to rapid innovations in the non-dairy market and low prices that have led to an oversupply of dairy milks. Similarly, non-dairy milks may face a kind of oversupply stemming from the sheer number of alternative milk bases available. Madelyn Franz
Food & Drink Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Dairy milk
          • Non-dairy milk
          • Executive Summary

            • The issues
              • Dairy milk sales are steadily declining
                • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
              • Purchase patterns stagnate the category
                • Figure 2: Purchasing shifts – Dairy milk and non-dairy milk, August 2019
              • The opportunities
                • Diet trends bode well for non-dairy sales
                  • Figure 3: Plant-based diets, February 2019
                  • Figure 4: Milk purchases – Dairy milk and non-dairy milk, August 2019
                • “Other” non-dairy year-over-year sales skyrocketing
                  • Figure 5: Total US retail sales of “other” non-dairy milks, at current prices, 2014-2024
                • Filling the white space by making milk a purposeful beverage
                  • Figure 6: Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
                  • Figure 7: Correspondence analysis – Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
                • What it means
                • The Market – What You Need To Know

                  • Dairy milk continues to struggle
                    • Non-dairy alternatives see steady growth
                      • New household dynamics lead to new milk needs
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Dairy milk struggles as prices fall and competition rises
                          • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
                          • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Non-dairy market booms
                          • Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
                          • Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Non-dairy share is comparatively small, but quickly growing
                          • Figure 12: Dairy and non-dairy share of total market sales, 2014-24
                          • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Dairy dragged down by skim, with hope from whole
                          • Figure 14: MULO sales of dairy milk, by segment, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Plant-based is becoming a priority
                          • Figure 15: Plant-based dairy alternatives across food and drink categories
                        • Coffee drinks, both in-home and away from home, see growth
                          • Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee market, at current prices, 2014-24
                          • Figure 17: Change in incidence of coffee drinks on menus, by segment, Q1 2016-Q1 2019
                      • Market Factors

                        • Household composition shifts away from children
                          • Figure 18: Percentage of households with children, 2008-18
                        • Low milk prices strain dairy industry
                          • Figure 19: Average price of milk (gallon), January 2009-July 2019
                        • Climate change leads to shake-ups in milk
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Private label sees mixed results
                            • Oat and almond drive non-dairy, while soy takes the backseat
                              • Hybrid milks fit in with popular diet trends
                              • Company and Brand Sales of Dairy and Non-dairy Milk

                                • Dean Foods and private label see biggest losses from dairy sales
                                  • Figure 20: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                • Major non-dairy players see mixed results
                                  • Figure 21: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Consumers still look for lactose-free milk
                                  • Protein claims boost shelf-stable sales
                                    • Figure 22: MULO sales of shelf-stable milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                  • Almond is the new go-to alternative, but oat has potential
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Continued crowding in non-dairy
                                      • Soy lost steam
                                        • Figure 23: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                        • Figure 24: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Hybrid drinks give consumers the best of both worlds
                                        • Figure 25: Live Real Farm’s Dairy Plus Milk Blends, October 2019
                                      • Repositioning could breathe life into falling dairy sales
                                        • Chocolate milk as a post-workout drink
                                          • Unique flavors as mix-ins
                                            • Sesame sparks interest for dairy and non-dairy drinkers
                                              • Figure 26: Hope & Sesame Organic Sesame Milk, Chocolate – August 2019
                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                            • Dairy milk is still a household staple
                                              • Most consumers are buying the same amount of dairy milk, but lactose is a concern
                                                • Non-dairy’s growing presence is led by almond milk, with no close second
                                                • Dairy Milk Purchases

                                                  • 2% and whole milks dominate the dairy market
                                                    • Figure 27: Dairy milk purchases, August 2019
                                                  • Most consumers buy only one type of dairy milk
                                                    • Methodology
                                                      • Figure 28: Repertoire analysis – Number of dairy milks purchased in the past three months, August 2019
                                                    • Dairy milk is popular for families
                                                      • Figure 29: Dairy milk purchases, by parental status, August 2019
                                                    • Men buy specialty dairy milk
                                                      • Figure 30: Dairy milk purchases, by gender, August 2019
                                                  • Dairy Milk Purchasing Shifts

                                                    • Most consumers are buying the same amount of dairy milk
                                                      • Figure 31: Dairy milk purchasing shifts, July 2018 and August 2019
                                                    • Millennials are buying more dairy milk
                                                      • Figure 32: Dairy milk purchasing shifts, by generation, August 2019
                                                    • Hispanics focus on eating healthy
                                                      • Figure 33: Dairy milk purchasing shifts, by Hispanic origin, August 2019
                                                    • Consumers are largely avoiding lactose
                                                      • Figure 34: Reasons for buying less dairy milk, August 2019
                                                  • Non-dairy Milk Purchases

                                                    • Almond milk dominates small but mighty non-dairy market
                                                      • Figure 35: Non-dairy milk purchases, August 2019
                                                    • Hispanics like non-dairy milks; Black consumers provide opportunity in the market
                                                      • Figure 36: Non-dairy milk purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2019
                                                    • Non-dairy purchases are a personal choice
                                                      • Figure 37: Household consumption of non-dairy milk, August 2019
                                                  • Non-dairy Milk Purchasing Shifts

                                                    • Non-dairy purchases continue to grow
                                                      • Figure 38: Non-dairy milk purchasing shifts, September 2018 and August 2019
                                                    • Health is a universal contributor to non-dairy increases
                                                      • Figure 39: Reasons for buying more non-dairy milk, August 2019
                                                    • Household income impacts outlook and priorities
                                                      • Figure 40: Non-dairy milk purchasing shifts, by household income, August 2019
                                                      • Figure 41: Reasons for buying more non-dairy milk, by household income, August 2019
                                                    • Hispanics are prime non-dairy consumers
                                                      • Figure 42: Reasons for buying more non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, August 2019
                                                  • Dairy and Non-dairy Milk Occasions

                                                    • Milk is largely an additive
                                                      • Figure 43: Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
                                                    • People cook with whole milk, but drink flavored options
                                                      • Figure 44: Dairy milk occasions, by milk type, August 2019
                                                    • Coconut milk has diverse uses
                                                      • Figure 45: Non-dairy milk usage occasions, by milk type, August 2019
                                                    • Opportunities lie in promoting milks as a standalone drink
                                                      • Methodology – Correspondence Analysis
                                                        • Figure 46: Correspondence Analysis – Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
                                                    • Dairy and Non-dairy Purchase Factors

                                                      • Dairy milk consumers focus on container size
                                                        • Figure 47: Dairy and non-dairy purchase considerations, August 2019
                                                      • TURF Analyses – Dairy and non-dairy milk
                                                        • Methodology
                                                          • Figure 48: Turf analysis – Purchase factors, dairy milk, August 2019
                                                          • Figure 49: TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, non-dairy milk
                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                        • Data sources
                                                          • Sales data
                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                      • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of milk, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 51: Total US retail sales of milk, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated milk, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable dairy, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 54: Total US retail sales of milk, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                      • Figure 55: Total US retail sales of milk, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 56: US supermarket sales of milk at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                      • Figure 57: US drugstore sales of milk, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                      • Figure 58: US sales of milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                      • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 63: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                      • Figure 64: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 65: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                      • Figure 66: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                  • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                      • Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 68: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 70: Multi-outlet sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                      • Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of other non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019