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US Wine market report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Wine market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

This report includes retail sales for domestic and imported wine for home (off-premise) and on-premise consumption. The following types of wine are included:

  • Still/table wine – noncarbonated wine; primarily red, white, or rosé/blush
  • Champagne and sparkling wines
  • Dessert and fortified wines
  • Vermouth and aperitifs

Sales of wine-based coolers are extremely low and declining. These account for less than 1% of sales by value or volume. Although they are included in the dollar sales data, they are not discussed in this report.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Beth Bloom, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Total US dollar sales of wine should reach $62 billion in 2018, for overall growth of 15% since 2013. The growth rate has slowed since a 4.2% bump in 2015, settling to a more moderate 1-2% annual growth projected through 2023. Wine growth has outpaced total alcohol, while wine share remained steady. Wine is the second most popular alcohol, behind beer, and has avoided the consumption reduction experienced by beer, securing appeal among women and older consumers and growing adoption among men and younger drinkers. Communicating permissibility and versatility, and nurturing engagement through education efforts will secure future participation. Beth Bloom
Associate Director - Food & Drink

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Wine sales estimated to reach $62 billion in 2018
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2013-23
          • Wine is the second most popular alcohol
            • Figure 2: Alcohol consumption, September 2018
          • Caution should be exercised to avoid dilution
            • Figure 3: Wine appearance on restaurant menus, by style share, Q3 2014 and Q3 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Wine holds its ground, but constant effort should be made to stem flight
              • Figure 4: Wine knowledge and behavior – change in consumption, September 2018
            • Packaging shifts can expand audience, occasions
              • Figure 5: Wine launches, by share of packaging type, 2014 and 2018*
            • Plain language is outranking traditional appellations
              • Figure 6: Important factors, September 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Wine sales estimated to reach $62 billion in 2018
                • Table wine dominates, Champagne/sparking continue strong growth
                  • Wine is the second most popular alcohol, behind beer
                    • Domestic wine continues to lead volume sales
                      • Off-premise sales represent lion’s share of volume sales
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Wine sales estimated to reach $62 billion in 2018
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2013-23
                          • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                        • Volume sales remain slow and steady
                          • Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2013-21
                          • Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2013-21
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Table wine dominates, Champagne/sparking continue strong growth
                          • Figure 12: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, by segment, 2013-21
                          • Figure 13: Total US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2016 and 2018
                        • Domestic wine continues to lead, maintains share of wine market
                          • Figure 14: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2013-17
                          • Figure 15: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2013-17
                        • Italian wines lead among imports
                          • Figure 16: Imported wine consumption, by country of origin, 2014 and 2018
                        • Off-premise sales represent 82% of volume sales of wine
                          • Figure 17: US volume sales of wine, by channel, 2013-17
                        • Wine by the glass is the way to reach the most on-premise consumers
                          • Figure 18: Wine format – On-premise, September 2018
                      • Market Perspective

                        • As shifts in alcohol consumption impact beer and spirits, wine holds steady
                          • Figure 19: Alcohol consumption, September 2018
                          • Figure 20: Share of total US dollar sales of alcohol, 2013-18 (est)
                          • Figure 21: Year-over-year change of US wine volume sales as compared to US volume sales of beverage alcohol, 2014-17
                        • Wine lacks beer’s perception of versatility
                          • Figure 22: Alcohol consumption by occasion, correspondence analysis, September 2018
                          • Figure 23: Alcohol consumption by occasion, correspondence analysis, September 2018
                        • Expanding legalization of recreational cannabis can challenge alcohol
                          • Figure 24: Cannabis statements – Alcohol, June 2018
                      • Market Factors

                        • High consumer confidence benefits discretionary spending categories
                          • Figure 25: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007-September 2018
                        • Aging population, generational disparities will impact the market
                          • Figure 26: Population by age, 2013-23
                        • The evolution of the traditional liquor store
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Gallo leads MULO sales of wine
                            • Affordable options lifted by retailer attention
                              • Canned growth brings casualization, portability to wine
                                • Boosting natural positioning can help combat health concerns
                                • Company and Brand Sales of Wine

                                  • Gallo leads MULO sales of wine
                                    • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of wine, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Barefoot leads MULO sales of domestic offerings
                                    • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of domestic wine, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Yellow Tail represents 10% of MULO sales of imported wine
                                    • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of imported wine, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Gallo brands claim 27% of MULO sales of sherry, vermouth, and champagne
                                    • Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of sherry, vermouth, and champagne, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Traditional varietals give way to accessible blends
                                    • Figure 31: Domestic wine consumption, by wine type, 2014 and 2018
                                    • Figure 32: Wine appearance on restaurant menus, by style share change, Q3 2014 and Q3 2018
                                  • Will sales remain sweet?
                                    • Cans grab 10% share of wine launches tracked in 2018
                                      • Figure 33: Wine launches, by share of packaging type, 2014 and 2018*
                                      • Figure 34: Wine launches, by share of packaging material, 2014 and 2018*
                                      • Figure 35: Wine launches, by share of closure type, 2014 and 2018*
                                      • Figure 36: Wine launches, by share of closure material, 2014 and 2018*
                                    • Skepticism over cans remains, viewed as expensive
                                      • Figure 37: Attribute perception, canned wine v. bottled wine, January 2017-October 2018
                                    • Environmentally friendly packaging claims lead among launches
                                      • Figure 38: Wine launches, by share of leading claims, 2014 and 2018*
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Natural positioning can help combat environmental, health concerns
                                      • Spotlighting lesser-known options can keep the category fresh
                                        • Wine cocktails can help diversify consumption occasions
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • Wine appeals to a wider range of consumers than other alcohol types
                                            • A third of wine drinkers do so a few times per week or more
                                              • A quarter of wine drinkers have increased consumption in the past year
                                                • Highest percentage of consumers purchase $4-$15 bottles
                                                  • The majority of wine drinkers select wine based on color
                                                    • Alternative formats are most welcome by younger consumers
                                                    • Wine Consumption

                                                      • Women make up the largest share of wine drinkers
                                                        • Figure 39: Share of alcohol consumption – Any drink, by gender, September 2018
                                                      • Wine drinkers skew older than drinkers of other alcohol types
                                                        • Figure 40: Share of alcohol consumption – Any drink, by age, September 2018
                                                      • Wine drinkers skew higher income
                                                        • Figure 41: Share of alcohol consumption – Any drink, by HH income, September 2018
                                                      • Wine is popular among Asian consumers
                                                        • Figure 42: Alcohol consumption, by race, September 2018
                                                      • Women aged 55+ who earn more than $50K over index in consumption
                                                        • Figure 43: Alcohol consumption – CHAID – Tree output, September 2018
                                                        • Figure 44: Alcohol consumption – CHAID – Table output, September 2018
                                                      • Experience
                                                        • A third of wine drinkers do so a few times per week or more
                                                          • Figure 45: Wine knowledge and behavior - experience, September 2018
                                                        • Men are more likely to be more frequent drinkers
                                                          • Figure 46: Wine knowledge and behavior – Experience, by gender, September 2018
                                                        • Older consumers are more likely to be frequent consumers
                                                          • Figure 47: Wine knowledge and behavior – Experience, by age, September 2018
                                                      • Change in Wine Consumption

                                                        • A quarter of wine drinkers have increased consumption in the past year
                                                          • Figure 48: Wine knowledge and behavior – Change in consumption, September 2018
                                                        • Men are more likely to be drinking more
                                                          • Figure 49: Wine knowledge and behavior – Change in consumption, by gender, September 2018
                                                        • A third of young drinkers have increased wine consumption
                                                          • Figure 50: Wine knowledge and behavior – Change in consumption, by age, September 2018
                                                      • Wine Price Points

                                                        • Highest percentage of consumers purchase $4-$15 bottles
                                                          • Figure 51: Perception of wine price points – Wine I purchase, September 2018
                                                        • Men are more likely than women to purchase higher price point wines
                                                          • Figure 52: Perception of wine price points – Wine I purchase, by gender, September 2018
                                                        • A quarter of 22-24-year-olds purchase extreme value wine
                                                          • Figure 53: Perception of wine price points – Wine I purchase, by age, September 2018
                                                        • Extreme value wine purchase correlates with HH income
                                                          • Figure 54: Perception of wine price points – Wine I purchase, by HH income, September 2018
                                                        • Beginner drinkers stick with lower price point wines
                                                          • Figure 55: Perception of wine price points – Wine I purchase, by experience, September 2018
                                                        • Wine buyers are most likely to stick to adjacent price points
                                                          • Figure 56: Perception of wine price points – Wine I purchase, by perception of wine price points – Wine I purchase, September 2018
                                                      • Purchase Location

                                                        • Off-premise purchase far outpaces on-premise purchase
                                                          • Winery concepts can grow engagement
                                                            • Use of alcohol delivery services is low
                                                              • Figure 57: Wine purchase location, September 2018
                                                            • Younger drinkers exhibit interest in affordability, convenience, experience
                                                              • Figure 58: Wine purchase location – Off-premise channels, by age, September 2018
                                                              • Figure 59: Wine purchase location – On-premise channels, by age, September 2018
                                                            • Mass channels appeal to low-price seekers, alcohol stores offer credibility
                                                              • Figure 60: Wine purchase location, by important factors, September 2018
                                                              • Figure 61: Wine purchase location – Off-premise, by perception of wine types – Wine I purchase, September 2018
                                                            • Restaurant wine appears most cost-prohibitive
                                                              • Figure 62: Wine purchase location – On-premise channels, by HH income, September 2018
                                                          • Wine Format

                                                            • Size
                                                              • One in 10 consumers purchase small formats
                                                                • Figure 63: Wine format – Size, September 2018
                                                              • Younger shoppers are more open to alternative sizes
                                                                • Figure 64: Wine format – Size, by age, September 2018
                                                              • Material
                                                                • More than one in 10 consumers purchase boxed wine
                                                                  • Figure 65: Wine format – Material, September 2018
                                                                • More than one in 10 younger consumers drink canned wine
                                                                  • Figure 66: Wine format – Material, by age, September 2018
                                                                • Boxed wine meets the need of frequent drinkers
                                                                  • Figure 67: Wine format – Material, by experience, September 2018
                                                                • Closure
                                                                  • Screw caps don’t trail behind cork/stopper closures
                                                                    • Figure 68: Wine format – Closure, September 2018
                                                                • Important Factors in Wine Choice

                                                                  • Plain language outranking traditional appellations
                                                                    • Figure 69: Important factors, September 2018
                                                                  • Traditional indicators are not as useful to wine beginners
                                                                    • Figure 70: Important factors, by experience, September 2018
                                                                  • Young drinkers are not as concerned with varietal, seek low price
                                                                    • Figure 71: Important factors, by age, September 2018
                                                                • Wine Knowledge and Behavior

                                                                  • Wine trial
                                                                    • Wine drinkers are open to trial
                                                                      • Figure 72: Wine knowledge and behavior – Trial, September 2018
                                                                    • Shopping habits
                                                                      • Wine buyers are slightly more likely to stock up
                                                                        • Figure 73: Wine knowledge and behavior – Shopping, September 2018
                                                                      • Younger shoppers are more likely to make last-minute purchases
                                                                        • Figure 74: Wine knowledge and behavior - shopping, by age, September 2018
                                                                      • Frequent drinkers are especially likely to stock up
                                                                        • Figure 75: Wine knowledge and behavior – Shopping, by experience, September 2018
                                                                      • Low-alcohol
                                                                        • Interest in low-alcohol wine is low
                                                                          • Figure 76: Wine knowledge and behavior – Low-alcohol, September 2018
                                                                        • Younger drinkers are more open to low-alcohol options
                                                                          • Figure 77: Wine knowledge and behavior – Low alcohol, by age, September 2018
                                                                      • Perception of Wine Price Points

                                                                        • Wine ranging from $4-15 perceived to have the greatest versatility
                                                                            • Figure 78: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Perception of wine price points, September 2018
                                                                            • Figure 79: Perception of wine price points, September 2018
                                                                          • Younger drinkers are more open to the versatility of low-price offerings
                                                                            • Figure 80: Perception of wine price points – Extreme value wine (under $4 for a 750ml bottle), by age, September 2018
                                                                          • Wine is most likely seen as good for drinking with friends
                                                                            • Figure 81: Perception of wine price points – Net*, September 2018
                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                          • Data sources
                                                                            • Sales data
                                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                                  • CHAID methodology
                                                                                    • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                        • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                            • Figure 82: Total US volume sales and forecast of table wine, 2013-21
                                                                                            • Figure 83: Total US volume sales and forecast of champagne/sparkling wine, 2013-21
                                                                                            • Figure 84: 21 Total US volume sales and forecast of dessert & fortified wine, 2013-21
                                                                                            • Figure 85: 21 Total US volume sales and forecast of vermouth & aperitif, 2013-21
                                                                                            • Figure 86: US volume sales of table wine, by origin, 2013-17
                                                                                            • Figure 87: US volume sales of champagne/sparkling wine, by origin, 2013-17
                                                                                            • Figure 88: US volume sales of dessert and fortified wine, by origin, 2013-17
                                                                                            • Figure 89: US volume sales of vermouth and aperitif, by origin, 2013-17
                                                                                            • Figure 90: US volume sales of wine, by channel, 2013-17