Description

“Despite higher prices and the decade-long slowdown in birthrates, the market for baby/toddler food and drink grew 10.6%, fueled largely by inflation and stockpiling in response to the formula shortage. Going forward, category growth will require continued attention to nutritional and functional demands in cognition, digestion and immunity support and potentially broadening of ranges into toddler foods and as a means of nutrition support as the baby ages.”
Billy Roberts, Sr. Analyst – Food and Drink

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • The expected impact of the formula shortage on the reputations of brands and the category overall
  • Approaches parents took to mitigate the effects of the shortages and whether these will be long lasting
  • Factors influencing purchase of baby/toddler food and drink
  • The sources that parents turn to for information about feeding their babies and toddlers
  • Trends in launch activity for baby formula, food and snacks, as well as areas with potential for development
  • The prioritization parents are giving to options that support the environment and sustainability

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • This Report looks at the following areas
        • Definition
          • Market context
          • Executive Summary

              • Top takeaways
                • Market overview
                  • Higher prices and supply complications drive sales increase
                    • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2017-27
                    • Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2017-27
                    • Figure 3: Category outlook, 2022-27
                  • Opportunities and challenges
                    • Functional focus
                      • Figure 4: Healthy food purchase factors, 2022
                    • Untapped opportunity is in refrigerated, frozen options
                      • Figure 5: Attitudes toward refrigerated or frozen baby/toddler foods, by age, 2022
                    • Better for us initiatives = premium
                      • Figure 6: Attitudes toward sustainability and baby/toddler foods, by age, 2022
                    • The opportunity for brands as a secondary parental resource
                      • Figure 7: TURF analysis – Information resources for feeding babies/toddlers, 2022
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Inflation, shortages combine for significant category sales increases
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2017-27
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2017-27
                  • Segment Performance

                    • Shortage boosts sales of formula and food; electrolytes continue growth but face looming disruption
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
                    • Shift away from supermarkets accelerates
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2017-22
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2017-22
                  • Market Factors

                    • Birthrates and the impact of Dobbs
                      • Figure 13: US births, in millions, 2011-21
                    • Birthrates not likely to improve in an era of high inflation
                      • Figure 14: Consumer Price Index change from previous period, 2007-22
                    • Steady breastfeeding rates reflect formula sales trends
                      • Figure 15: Percentage of US children who were breast fed, by birth year, 2012-19
                    • Employment’s influence upon category sales
                      • Figure 16: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, by work-from-home status, 2022
                    • WIC for online purchases will shift category spending
                      • Formula shortage and supply chain issues dominate category in 2022
                          • Figure 17: Behavior shifts due to formula shortage, 2022
                          • Figure 18: Attitudes toward baby/toddler food brands, 2022
                      • Market Share/Key Players

                        • Shortages bring slight shift in brand leaders’ sales
                          • Sales of baby food by company
                            • Figure 19: Multi-Outlet sales of baby food and drink, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                          • Company/brand sales by segment
                            • Stage is set for a shift in formula brands
                              • Figure 20: Multi-Outlet sales of baby formula, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                            • Natural/organic food sales grow in wake of formula shortage
                              • Figure 21: Multi-Outlet sales of baby food, snacks and juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                            • Electrolyte consumption expands but may negatively impact the segment over the long term
                              • Figure 22: Multi-Outlet sales of baby electrolytes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                              • Figure 23: Pedialyte sales versus key competitors in the sports drinks category, 2020-21
                          • Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities

                            • Parents put a premium on sustainable/environmental messaging
                              • Figure 24: Organic and sustainable baby food introductions, 2022
                              • Figure 25: Baby food/drink launches in the US, by claim, 2017-21
                            • Parents following function
                              • Figure 26: US launches of baby food/drink, by subcategory, by functional or fortified claim, 2020-22
                              • Figure 27: Notable US launches of functional baby food/drink, by functional or fortified claim, 2022
                            • Quality and nutritional promise could drive interest in refrigerated launches
                              • Figure 28: US launches of baby food/drink, by storage type, by subcategory, 2017-22
                            • Brands can play a role as a parental resource
                              • Figure 29: TURF analysis – Information resources for feeding babies/toddlers, 2022
                          • The Baby Food Consumer – Fast Facts

                            • Child-specific formulations maintain parental appeal
                              • Weaning appears an area where brands can innovate and advise
                                • Price takes a backseat to nutrition
                                  • Minimal longer-term impact from formula shortages
                                    • Brands can tread the line between advisor and influencer
                                    • Baby/Toddler Food/Drink Consumption

                                      • Homemade options popular, but convenience weighs heavily on short-of-time parents
                                        • Figure 30: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, 2022
                                      • Usage of regular milk, juice slips in favor of child-specific formulations
                                        • Figure 31: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, 2022 versus 2020^ and 2018^^
                                      • Younger consumers appear drawn to the “real”
                                        • Figure 32: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, by age, 2022
                                      • Grown-up and homemade options helping consumers stretch their food dollar
                                        • Figure 33: Baby/toddler food/drink consumption, by household income, 2022
                                    • Baby/Toddler Food Frequency

                                      • Guide consumers to best meet their child’s health needs
                                        • Figure 34: Baby/toddler food frequency, 2022
                                    • Drink Purchase Factors

                                      • Nutrition tops factors in baby drink selection
                                        • Figure 35: Drink purchase factors, 2022
                                      • Differentiate brands with nutritional attributes
                                        • Figure 36: Drink purchase factors, by household income, 2022
                                    • Food Purchase Factors

                                      • Functional attributes sought in baby/toddler foods
                                        • Figure 37: Food purchase factors, 2022
                                        • Figure 38: US launches of baby food with fortified or functional claims, 2012-22
                                      • Healthful options can help brands support parents
                                        • Figure 39: Food purchase factors, by age, 2022
                                        • Figure 40: Examples of baby food launches with functional messaging, 2022
                                      • Broadening wellbeing to encompass environmental wellness
                                        • Figure 41: Attitudes toward sustainability and baby/toddler foods, by area, 2022
                                      • Frozen, refrigerated curiosity suggests an interest in higher-quality toddler foods
                                        • Figure 42: Attitudes toward refrigerated or frozen baby/toddler foods, by age, 2022
                                    • Information Resources for Feeding Babies/Toddlers

                                      • Wide range of resources for parents
                                        • Figure 43: Information resources for feeding babies/toddlers, 2022
                                      • Brands can have a role as influencers
                                        • Figure 44: Learning from baby/toddler brands, by number of children in household, 2022
                                      • Older parents draw on experts, while a host of influencers guide younger parents
                                        • Figure 45: Information resources for feeding babies/toddlers, by age, 2022
                                      • Brand messaging can mitigate any formula shortage fallout
                                        • Figure 46: Attitudes toward information from baby/toddler food brands, by age, 2022
                                    • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                      • Data sources
                                        • Sales data
                                          • Forecast
                                            • Consumer survey data
                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                • Abbreviations
                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                    • Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 50: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2020 and 2022
                                                    • Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby formula, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby formula, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food, snacks and juice, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby food, snacks and juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby electrolytes, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                    • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby electrolytes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
                                                • Appendix – Companies and Brands

                                                    • Figure 57: Multi-Outlet sales of baby food and drink, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                                                    • Figure 58: Multi-Outlet sales of baby formula, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                                                    • Figure 59: Multi-Outlet sales of baby food, snacks and juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                                                    • Figure 60: Multi-Outlet sales of baby electrolytes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
                                                • Appendix – Retail Channels

                                                    • Figure 61: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2017-22
                                                    • Figure 62: Total US retail sales of baby food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2020 and 2022
                                                    • Figure 63: US supermarket sales of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2017-22
                                                    • Figure 64: US drugstore sales of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2017-22
                                                    • Figure 65: US sales of baby food and drink through other retail channels, at current prices, 2017-22
                                                • Appendix – Consumer

                                                    • Figure 66: Average annual household spending on baby food and drink, 2017-22
                                                • Appendix – TURF Methodology

                                                    • Figure 67: TURF analysis – Drink purchase factors, 2022
                                                    • Figure 68: Table – TURF analysis – Drink purchase factors, 2022
                                                    • Figure 69: TURF analysis – Food purchase factors, 2022
                                                    • Figure 70: Table – TURF Analysis – Food purchase factors, 2022
                                                    • Figure 71: TURF analysis – Information resources for feeding babies/toddlers, 2022
                                                    • Figure 72: Table – TURF analysis – Information resources for feeding babies/toddlers, 2022

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