Description

“Dollar sales of beer, craft beer and cider are estimated to reach $117 billion in 2019, and are projected to post on-going moderate growth through 2024. Challenges to the market however include shrinking volume sales, as more consumers report reduction of beer consumption rather than an increase. Flavor innovation and product positioning strategies from adjacent categories, especially RTD alcoholic beverages, can serve as a beacon to beer brands to re-engage beer drinkers to alternatives in the quest for better for you offerings.”
– Mimi Bonnett, Director – Food and Drink, Foodservice

This Report will cover the following areas:

  • Beer attrition rates outpace that of reduction of alcohol consumption in general
  • Are beer drinkers confusing health with ‘diet”?
  • On premise declines challenge path to product discovery
  • Strategic innovation is sticking
  • Attitudes on flavor, occasion and choice offer ways to expand reach
  • Millennials still rule the world, keep your eye on Gen Z

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Key takeaways
          • Market overview
            • Moderate growth projected through 2024 for $117 billion market
              • Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at current prices, 2014-24
            • The issues
              • Beer attrition rates outpace that of reduction of alcohol consumption in general
                • Figure 2: Change in beer consumption compared to a year ago, by age, July 2019
              • Are beer drinkers confusing health with ‘diet”?
                • Figure 3: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutrition, July 2019
              • On premise declines challenge path to product discovery
                • Figure 4: US volume sales of beer, craft beer and FMBs, by channel, 2014-2018
              • The opportunities
                • Strategic innovation is sticking
                  • Figure 5: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, July 2019
                • Attitudes on flavor, occasion and choice offer ways to expand reach
                  • Figure 6: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer choice, July 2019
                • Millennials still rule the world, keep your eye on Gen Z
                  • Figure 7: Alcoholic drink consumption, by generation, July 2019
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Dollar sales reach $117 billion in 2019
                  • Light beer leads the category, yet losing share to imports and craft
                    • Wine and spirits stealing the spotlight from beer
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider market posts modest growth
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                      • Declines in volume sales are leveling off
                        • Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer and craft beer, 2014-22
                        • Figure 12: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer and craft beer, 2014-22
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Light, premium and imports together comprise three quarters of market
                        • Figure 13: Volume sales of beer market, by segment, 2019
                      • Imported and craft segments fueling the category
                        • Figure 14: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer and craft beer, by segment, 2017-19
                      • Off-premise sales far outpace on-prem
                        • Figure 15: US volume sales of beer, craft beer and FMBs, by channel, 2014-2018
                    • Market Perspective

                        • Figure 16: Alcohol consumption, July 2019
                      • Wine, spirits and RTDs grow sales
                        • Figure 17: US retail market size, spirits and wine/sparkling wine, 2017-19
                      • Alcoholic seltzers show stellar growth
                        • Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of spiked seltzers in the domestic beer/ale segment, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                      • Cannabis legalization deepens competitive field and opportunity
                        • Figure 19: Cannabis statements – Alcohol, July 2019
                    • Market Factors

                      • Consumer confidence triggers trading up
                        • Figure 20: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007- July 2019
                      • Pay attention to shifting generational behaviors
                        • Figure 21: Frequency of consumption, by generation, July 2019
                      • Younger generations – and families – are increasingly diverse
                        • Figure 22: Distribution of population, by generation and Hispanic origin, 2019
                      • Health-related considerations shape beer consumption
                        • Figure 23: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age adjusted), 1999-2000 through 2015-16
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Marquee suppliers dominate, but smaller players growing
                        • Imports and innovation drive the market
                          • Beers draw inspiration from other drink categories
                            • Cans account for 70% of launches, support eco-friendly claims
                            • Company and Brand Sales of Beer

                              • Largest suppliers dominate share, but smaller players are faster growing
                                • Figure 24: Share of multi-outlet sales of beer, craft beer and alcoholic ciders, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending August 11, 2019
                                • Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of beer, craft beer and alcoholic ciders, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                            • What’s Working

                              • Mexican imports from Constellation Brands are strong performers
                                • AB InBev innovation aligns with neo-traditional wellness
                                  • Cans come into fashion
                                    • Figure 26: Beer and cider launches, by pack type, 2014-19*
                                  • Environmentally friendly packaging claims have become standard
                                    • Figure 27: Beer and cider launches, by environmentally friendly packaging claims, 2014-2019*
                                • What’s Struggling

                                  • In domestic beer, flagship brands struggle
                                    • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of domestic beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                  • Cider growth slows, facing competition from boozy seltzers
                                    • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of alcoholic ciders, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                  • Limited editions, seasonality and premium product claims decline
                                    • Figure 30: Beer launches, by select claims, 2014-2019
                                • What to Watch

                                  • Beer-blurring
                                    • Cocktail-flavored, hazy and dessert-inspired beers appeal to youth
                                      • Beers with more healthful and lower-alcohol profiles, or with CBD
                                        • Occasion matters to refine brand identity
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • Men, Millennials, Hispanics, parents and the affluent drink more beer
                                            • Domestic beer leads, but diversity in style and source abounds
                                              • Wide-ranging selection factors, especially among the most engaged
                                                • Market attrition continues
                                                  • Beer has a fun, casual reputation, that pairs well with food
                                                  • Alcoholic Drink Consumption

                                                    • Beer most widely consumed alcoholic beverage
                                                      • Figure 31: Alcoholic drink consumption, July 2019
                                                    • 70% of men drink beer, less than half of women do so
                                                      • Figure 32: Alcoholic drink consumption, by gender, July 2019
                                                    • Millennials stand out as top beer drinkers
                                                      • Figure 33: Alcoholic drink consumption, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Parents are engaged drinkers and beer tops their list
                                                      • Figure 34: Alcoholic drink consumption, by parental status, July 2019
                                                    • Hispanic consumers may help propel future growth
                                                      • Figure 35: Alcoholic drink consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
                                                  • Frequency of Beer Consumption

                                                    • Consumers are equally split on consumption frequency
                                                      • Figure 36: Frequency of consumption, July 2019
                                                    • Men are more likely to be frequent beer drinkers
                                                      • Figure 37: Frequency of beer consumption, by gender, July 2019
                                                    • Millennials are key, as about half drink beer regularly
                                                      • Figure 38: Frequency of consumption, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Income drives frequency of consumption
                                                      • Figure 39: Frequency of consumption, by household income, July 2019
                                                    • Parents more likely to be regular beer drinkers
                                                      • Figure 40: Frequency of consumption, by parental status, July 2019
                                                  • Types of Beer Consumed

                                                    • Domestic beer leads, but diversity in style and source abounds
                                                      • Figure 41: Types of beer consumed, July 2019
                                                    • Men drink greater number and range of beers
                                                      • Figure 42: Types of beer consumed, by gender, July 2019
                                                    • Millennials are top consumers of craft, flavored and hybrid beers
                                                      • Figure 43: Types of beer consumed, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Most affluent consumers are strong consumers of “true-craft” beer
                                                      • Figure 44: Types of beer consumed, by household income, July 2019
                                                    • Hispanic consumers embrace beer imported from Mexico
                                                      • Figure 45: Types of beer consumed, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
                                                  • Selection factors

                                                    • Brand, style lead the consideration set
                                                      • Figure 46: Selection factors when choosing a beer, July 2019
                                                    • For men, many factors considered in quest for the right beer
                                                      • Figure 47: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by gender, July 2019
                                                    • Millennials take more selection factors into account
                                                      • Figure 48: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Wealthier consumers look beyond price to many other selection factors
                                                      • Figure 49: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by household income, July 2019
                                                    • Parents have greater interest in range of selection factors
                                                      • Figure 50: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by parental status, July 2019
                                                  • Behaviors and Preferences

                                                    • More than a quarter of beer drinkers report drinking less beer
                                                      • Figure 51: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, July 2019
                                                    • Women beer drinkers more likely than men to be cutting back
                                                      • Figure 52: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, by gender, July 2019
                                                    • Older consumers cut back, while Millennial consumption stays stable
                                                      • Figure 53: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Parents consumption holds steady; they also seek “nutritional info”
                                                      • Figure 54: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, by parental status, July 2019
                                                  • Attitudes toward Brands and Beverage Types

                                                    • Brand is widely associated with occasion or personal identity
                                                      • Figure 55: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, July 2019
                                                    • For men, beer choice reflects personal identity
                                                      • Figure 56: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, by gender, July 2019
                                                    • Millennial opinions represent strong, yet fragmented participation
                                                      • Figure 57: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Parents highly attuned to brand, and use at different occasions
                                                      • Figure 58: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, by parental status, July 2019
                                                  • Attitudes Related to Choice

                                                    • Product choice often spontaneous
                                                      • Figure 59: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer choice, July 2019
                                                    • Flavor, occasion, spontaneity shape Gen Z and Millennial consumption
                                                      • Figure 60: Attitudes and behaviors related to drink choice, by generation, July 2019
                                                  • Attitudes Related to Health and Nutrition

                                                    • Health-related considerations prime for about three to four in 10
                                                      • Figure 61: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutrition, July 2019
                                                    • Younger beer drinker confuse health with diet
                                                      • Figure 62: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutriition, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Opportunity with parents in offering more healthy beer options
                                                      • Figure 63: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutrition, by parental status, July 2019
                                                  • Associations with Alcoholic Drinks and Beer

                                                    • Beer seen as fun drink for unwinding and pairing with some foods
                                                      • Figure 64: Associations with alcoholic drinks and beer, July 2019
                                                    • Men’s glowing views of beer contrast sharply with women’s
                                                      • Figure 65: Associations with beer, by gender, July 2019
                                                    • Gen Z needs some coaching from brands
                                                      • Figure 66: Associations with beer, by generation, July 2019
                                                    • Hispanic consumers associate beer with fun, good taste and high quality
                                                      • Figure 67: Associations with beer, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
                                                  • Beer Purchase Location

                                                    • The vast majority – eight in 10 – most often purchase beer off-premise
                                                      • Figure 68: Beer purchase location, July 2019
                                                    • Supermarkets lead purchase location
                                                      • Figure 69: Beer purchase location, July 2019
                                                    • Millennials use a wider range of off- and on-premise locations
                                                      • Figure 70: Off-premise and on-premise purchase (most and also), by generation, July 2019
                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                    • Data sources
                                                      • Sales data
                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                            • Direct marketing creative
                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                  • Terms
                                                                  • Appendix – The Market

                                                                      • Figure 71: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and cider, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                      • Figure 72: Total US volume sales and forecast of light beer, 2014-22
                                                                      • Figure 73: Total US volume sales and forecast of super premium and premium beer, 2014-21
                                                                      • Figure 74: Total US volume sales and forecast of imported beer, 2014-22
                                                                      • Figure 75: Total US volume sales and forecast of craft beer, 2014-22
                                                                      • Figure 76: Total US volume sales and forecast of popular beer, 2014-22
                                                                      • Figure 77: Total US volume sales and forecast of ice beer, 2014-22
                                                                      • Figure 78: Total US volume sales and forecast of malt liquor, 2014-22
                                                                      • Figure 79: Total US volume sales of alcoholic cider, 2014-18
                                                                      • Figure 80: US volume sales of beer, craft beer and FMBs, by channel, 2014-18
                                                                      • Figure 81: US volume sales of beverage alcohol, by channel, 2014-18

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