Description

“The fact that almost every Canadian has enjoyed baked goods over the past three months leaves little room for growth from a penetration standpoint, but offers hope that consumer enthusiasm can be translated into growth through increased occasions. While health concerns will limit the types and quantities of baked goods consumed, shoppers are willing to seek out healthier alternatives, or cut back on serving sizes in order to ‘get their fix’. Although the convenience of purchasing ready-made baked goods will never be replaced, those that also bake at home are finding significant enjoyment from the practice.”

– Meghan Ross, Senior Home & Beauty Analyst

This report covers the following issues:

  • Market factors influencing the baked goods market.
  • Breads and sweet baked goods eaten in the past three months.
  • Impact of health considerations on purchase choice.
  • Impact of COVID-19 on baked goods.
  • Attitudes towards baked goods.
  • Attitudes towards home baking.

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Market context
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Category outlook: baked goods, 2022-27
    • Opportunities and challenges
    • Increase value perceptions through versatility and convenience
    • Home baking for overall wellness
    • Involve kids in the kitchen
    • Healthy aspirations will pose a challenge
    • Convenience will help brands establish value
    • Small kitchen appliance popularity can lead to new recipe opportunities
  3. Market Factors

    • Price hikes will have consumers seeking value
      • Figure 2: 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index, May 2019-May 2022
      • Figure 3: Your Fresh Market Kalamata Olive Bread (Canada), March 2022
      • Figure 4: Great Value Gluten Free Chocolate Chip Cookies (Canada), August 2021
      • Figure 5: EASY HOMEMADE BREAD | HOW TO MAKE ARTISAN BREAD ON A BUDGET | PANTRY CHALLENGE, January 2020
      • Figure 6: Cost under $2! The easiest way to make ciabatta bread cheaply!, September 2021
    • Immigration patterns will alter consumer expectations for baked goods
      • Figure 7: Distribution of foreign-born population, by region of birth, Canada, 1871-2036*
    • Canada’s aging population will have specific health needs
      • Figure 8: Population aged 0-14 and 65+, 1988-2068*
  4. Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities

    • Health and wellness are considerations at the grocery store
      • Figure 9: Mintel Trend Driver: Wellbeing
      • Figure 10: Fat Snax! Double Chocolate Cookies (US), February 2022
      • Figure 11: La Tortilla Factory Cauliflower Tortillas with Cassava Flour (Canada), October 2021
      • Figure 12: Mission Protein Plant Powered Tortilla Wraps (US), June 2020
      • Figure 13: Stonemill Bakehouse Instagram post, January 2022
      • Figure 14: Hostess Snacks Instagram post, February 2022
    • Added value will ease the sting of inflation
      • Figure 15: Heinz Hot Dog Pact, July 2021
      • Figure 16: Wonderbread Instagram post, June 2022
      • Figure 17: Mintel Trend Driver: Value
      • Figure 18: Furlani Roasted Garlic Soft Rolls (Canada), June 2022
      • Figure 19: Williams Sonoma Classic Vanilla Mug Cake Mix (US), May 2022
      • Figure 20: Ardent Mills Instagram post, July 2019
      • Figure 21: Pillsbury Ready To Bake! Sweet Hearts Sugar Cookies (US), February 2022
      • Figure 22: Betty Crocker Instagram post, July 2021
      • Figure 23: Cookie DŌ NYC Instagram post, March 2022
    • Home bakers are thinking outside the oven
      • Figure 24: Instant Pot Official Instagram post, May 2022
      • Figure 25: Pillsbury Instagram post, March 2022
    • Consumers are seeking comfort in the familiar
      • Figure 26: Mintel Trend Driver: Experiences
      • Figure 27: Betty Crocker Instagram post, October 2021
      • Figure 28: Real Duncan Hines Instagram post, July 2021
  5. Baked Goods: Fast Facts

  6. Baked Goods Eaten

    • The vast majority of Canadians eat bread
      • Figure 29: Baked goods eaten in the past three months, 2022 vs 2019, 2022
      • Figure 30: Baked goods eaten in the past three months, men vs women, 2022
      • Figure 31: Baked goods eaten in the past three months, by age, 2022
    • Canadians are happy to indulge in sweet treats
      • Figure 32: Sweet baked goods eaten in the past three months, 2022 vs 2019, 2022
      • Figure 33: Sweet baked goods eaten in the past three months, men vs women, 2022
    • Preferences for baked goods vary somewhat by age
      • Figure 34: Sweet baked goods eaten in the past three months (select), by age, 2022
    • Social elements drive increased sweet baked good consumption
      • Figure 35: Baked goods eaten in the past three months (net), by household size, 2022
  7. Health Options of Interest in Baked Goods

    • Health considerations are taken into account by two-thirds of shoppers
      • Figure 36: Important health-related options when choosing baked goods, 2022
    • Health priorities change with age
      • Figure 37: Important health-related options when choosing baked goods, 18-44s vs over-45s, 2022
      • Figure 38: Important health-related options when choosing baked goods (select), by parental status, 2022
    • Asians are placing more importance on health factors
      • Figure 39: Important health-related options when choosing baked goods (select), Chinese and South Asians vs overall, 2022
  8. Impact of COVID-19 on Baked Goods

    • Seven in 10 Canadians altered their baked good habits as a result of the pandemic
      • Figure 40: Change in baked goods habits and views as a result of the pandemic, 2022
    • Women are relying on baked goods for comfort
      • Figure 41: Change in baked goods habits and views as a result of the pandemic, men vs women, 2022
    • Lifestyle changes are driving younger Canadians to alter their eating habits
      • Figure 42: Change in baked goods habits and views as a result of the pandemic (select), by age, 2022
    • Asians have shifted their baked good eating habits to a greater extent
      • Figure 43: Change in baked goods habits and views as a result of the pandemic, Chinese and South Asian Canadians vs overall, 2022
    • Heightened worries are associated with increased snacking
      • Figure 44: Those who have eaten baked goods as a way to cope with stress, by level of concern about COVID-19 exposure, 2022
  9. Attitudes Towards Baking

    • Three in five Canadians bake at home
      • Figure 45: Baked in the past year, 2022
    • Young men are enthusiastic about home baking
      • Figure 46: Baked in the past year, by age and gender, 2022
      • Figure 47: Baked in the past year, by parental status, 2022
    • Baking behaviours
    • Bakers are looking online for inspiration
      • Figure 48: Attitudes about baking behaviours (% agree), 2022
      • Figure 49: Nailed It! Season 6 | Official Trailer | Netflix, August 2021
      • Figure 50: Attitudes about baking behaviours (% agree), 18-44s vs over-45s, 2022
      • Figure 51: Attitudes about baking behaviours, by parental status, 2022
      • Figure 52: Duff’s Happy Fun Bake Time | Now Streaming on discovery+, April 2021
      • Figure 53: Be Our Chef | Official Trailer | Disney+, April 2021
      • Figure 54: Interest in putting in additional effort (% agree), home bakers vs those who do not bake, 2022
    • Emotional and social motivations
    • Baking is good for the soul
      • Figure 55: Emotional baking motivators (% agree), 2022
      • Figure 56: Social baking motivators (% agree), 2022
      • Figure 57: Social baking motivators (% agree), 18-44s vs over-45s, 2022
      • Figure 58: Social baking motivators (% agree), by parental status, 2022
      • Figure 59: ‘Baking is a way to connect with my cultural heritage’ (% agree), South Asians vs overall, 2022
      • Figure 60: General Mills Instagram post, April 2022
    • Baking is a bonding activity
      • Figure 61: ‘I enjoy baking with my children’ (% agree), moms vs dads, 2022
      • Figure 62: Great Value Dinosaur Bones Brownie Kit (US), May 2022
      • Figure 63: Curious Chef Instagram post, May 2022
      • Figure 64: Betty Crocker Instagram post, August 2021
  10. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Consumer survey data
    • Consumer qualitative research
    • Mintel Trend Drivers
    • Abbreviations

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