Canada Dairy & Non-Dairy Milk Market Report 2023

Overview

• What you need to know
• This Report looks at the following areas
• Definition
• Dairy milk
• Non-dairy milk

Executive Summary

• Top takeaways
• Consumer trends
• Most Canadians view dairy milk as being more suitable for kids
• Most agree there should be a cap on dairy milk prices, although many are also willing to pay more for higher-quality offerings
• No one consideration dominates as a reason for selecting non-dairy milk
• Market predictions
• Innovation in the non-dairy space presents challenges for dairy milk
• Canadians may express concern about fat in milk, but behaviours suggest otherwise
  • Figure 1: Category outlook: dairy and non-dairy milk, 2023-28
• Opportunities
• Thicker textures hold particular appeal with newer Canadians
• Oat milk continues to captivate the attention of Canadians
• Canada’s dairy farmers are a key point of relatability

Market Drivers

• Food inflation continues to take a bite out of people’s wallets
  • Figure 2: Canadian year-over-year consumer price index (annualized inflation rate) for all items and food from retail, by month, 2019-23
  • Figure 3: Annualized monthly change in prices of food purchased from stores by category, May 2023 vs May 2022
• • Figure 4: Issues that affect Canadians, 2023
• Commercial milk sales continue to show softness
  • Figure 5: Commercial sales of milk (Canada), 2010-22
• • Figure 6: Distribution of commercial sales of milk (Canada), 2010-22
• Immigration continues to drive Canada’s population growth…
  • Figure 7: Overall actual/planned permanent resident admissions, 2021-25
• …with Asia and India more specifically as the primary source
  • Figure 8: Permanent residents admitted to Canada, by country (top 10), 2022

Market Opportunities

• Creamy textures are a claim being featured more prominently
  • Figure 9: Chobani Extra Creamy Oat Drink (US), 2022
  • Figure 10: Califia Farms Extra Creamy Almond Beverage (Canada), 2022
• • Figure 11: The Farm House Natural Cheeses Cream on the Top Whole Milk (US), 2022
• Fun flavours are popping up
  • Figure 12: Milk.2go Instagram post, 2023
  • Figure 13: Nestlé Sensations Cinnamon Toast Crunch Cinnamilk Lowfat Milk (US), 2021
• • Figure 14: Nestlé Sensations Kellogg’s Froot Loops Cereal Flavored Milk (US), 2022
  • Figure 15: Fairlife Yup! Cookies N’ Creamiest Ultra-Filtered Milk (US), 2020
• • Figure 16: Avocadomilk Chocolate Flavored Avocado Drink (US), 2020
  • Figure 17: Happy Plant Mornin’ Oatz Mango Peach Shake (Canada), 2022
• Added-benefits can also add value in an era of high inflation
  • Figure 18: Agropur Natrel Plus Milk Protein Shake with 3.25% Milk Fat (Canada), 2022
• • Figure 19: Milk.2go Instagram post, 2022
  • Figure 20: Clover Sonoma Blue Moon Organic Blueberry Lavender Flavored 2% Reduced Fat Milk (US), 2022
• • Figure 21: PC Dairy-Free Kefir Probiotic Fermented Coconut Milk (Canada), 2022
• Oat milk promotes a barista-like experience
  • Figure 22: Oatly! The Original Oat Milk (US), March 2019 and Oatly! Original Barista Oat Drink (Canada), 2021
  • Figure 23: Chobani Oat Plain Barista Edition Oat Drink (US), 2021
• • Figure 24: Califia Farms Pumpkin Spice Oat Barista Blend with Oatmilk (US), 2022
• Milk can address climate change head-on
  • Figure 25: Dairy Farmers of Canada: I’m In, 2022
• • Figure 26: Neutral Carbon Neutral Organic 2% Reduced Fat Milk (US), 2022

The Dairy and Non-dairy Milk Consumer – Fast Facts

Purchasing Dairy and Non-dairy Milk

• Half of consumers purchase both dairy and non-dairy milk
  • Figure 27: Purchased dairy and/or non-dairy milk, 2023
• Younger and ‘newer’ Canadians are more likely to drink plant-based milk
  • Figure 28: Purchased dairy and/or non-dairy milk, by age, 2023
• • Figure 29: Purchased dairy and/or non-dairy milk, newer Canadians vs overall, 2023

Changes in Purchase Behaviour

• Twice as many consumers claim to be purchasing more non-dairy milk than dairy milk
  • Figure 30: Perceived change in purchase behaviour, dairy vs non-dairy milk, 2023
• Younger consumers show more volatile purchasing behaviour
  • Figure 31: Perceived change in purchase behaviour of dairy milk vs a year ago, by age, 2023
• • Figure 32: Perceived change in purchase behaviour of non-dairy milk vs a year ago, by age, 2023

Types of Dairy Milk Purchased

• 2% milk remains the most popular type of dairy milk with Canadians
  • Figure 33: Types of dairy milk purchased, 2019 vs 2023
• Younger adults are more likely to drink more varieties of dairy milk
  • Figure 34: Types of dairy milk purchased, by age, 2023
• • Figure 35: Purchase of whole milk, by presence and age of children in the household, 2023
• • Figure 36: Types of dairy milk purchased, newer Canadians vs overall, 2023

Types of Non-dairy Milk Purchased

• Almond milk reigns, but oat milk is ascendant
  • Figure 37: Types of non-dairy milk purchased, 2019 vs 2023
• • Figure 38: Types of non-dairy milk purchased, by age, 2023
• • Figure 39: Types of non-dairy milk purchased, newer Canadians vs overall, 2023

Reasons for Consuming Non-dairy Milk

• Health and taste are the main reasons why Canadians turn to non-dairy milk
  • Figure 40: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, 2023
• Men are more motivated by sensory considerations when it comes to consuming non-dairy milk
  • Figure 41: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, men vs women, 2023
• • Figure 42: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, newer Canadians vs overall, 2023

Reasons for Avoiding Non-dairy Milk

• Aversion to the taste is the main barrier to consuming non-dairy milk
  • Figure 43: Reasons for not consuming non-dairy milk, 2023
• • Figure 44: “Don’t like the texture” as a reason for not consuming non-dairy milk, by age, 2023

What Matters When Purchasing Non-dairy Milk

• No one consideration dominates as a factor when choosing non-dairy milk
  • Figure 45: What matters when purchasing non-dairy milk, 2023
• • Figure 46: “Tastes like dairy milk” as mattering when purchasing non-dairy milk, men vs women, 2023
• • Figure 47: “Functional benefits” as mattering when purchasing non-dairy milk, by age, 2023

What Matters When Purchasing Dairy Milk

• Being ‘made in Canada’ matters immensely to consumers of dairy milk
  • Figure 48: What matters when purchasing dairy milk, 2023
• Older adults place greater value on milk being produced in Canada
  • Figure 49: What matters when purchasing dairy milk (select), by age, 2023
• • Figure 50: What matters when purchasing dairy milk (select), newer Canadians vs overall, 2023
• • Figure 51: Ultra-filtered milk and omega-3 as mattering when purchasing dairy milk, by region, 2023

Appealing Areas of Innovation

• Environmental packaging and functional benefits are the most appealing areas of innovation
  • Figure 52: Appealing areas of dairy and non-dairy milk innovation, 2023
• • Figure 53: Nutrinor Cooperative Instagram post, 2023
• Newer Canadians are much more likely to express interest in milk with thicker textures and different flavours
  • Figure 54: Appealing areas of dairy and non-dairy milk innovation (select), newer Canadians vs overall, 2023
• • Figure 55: Appealing areas of dairy and non-dairy milk innovation (select), by age, 2023
• • Figure 56: “Sold in environmental packaging” as being an appealing innovation, by region, 2023

Attitudes toward Milk and Price

• Most believe the price of milk should be capped
  • Figure 57: Attitudes toward milk and price, 2023
• Younger adults hold more flexible views around milk and price
  • Figure 58: Attitudes toward milk and price (% agree), by age, 2023
• • Figure 59: Attitudes toward milk and price (% agree), by parental status, 2023

Attitudes toward Milk and Sustainability

• Canadians express trust in dairy producers as it relates to environmental stewardship…
  • Figure 60: Attitudes toward milk and sustainability, 2023
• …but younger adults are less trusting
  • Figure 61: Attitudes toward milk and sustainability (% agree), by age, 2023
• • Figure 62: “Drinking non-dairy milk is better for the environment” (% agree), by region, 2023

Attitudes toward Milk and Health/Variety

• Most agree that it’s more important for kids to drink milk than it is for adults
  • Figure 63: Attitudes toward milk and health and variety, 2023
• • Figure 64: Everybody Milk: 30, 2022
• • Figure 65: Attitudes toward milk and health and variety (% agree), by age, 2023
• • Figure 66: Attitudes toward milk and health and variety (% agree), by parental status, 2023

Attitudes toward Dairy Milk Production

• Nearly everyone expresses support for Canada’s dairy producers
  • Figure 67: Attitudes toward dairy milk production, 2023
• • Figure 68: Attitudes toward dairy milk production (% agree), by age, 2023

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations