Description

“The rush to online shopping amid the pandemic is boosting the already solid growth of grocery ecommerce. While some shoppers who shifted more of their grocery dollars online to minimize exposure to the virus will be eager to get back to the store as a way to regain a sense of normalcy, many more will hold to shopping habits and preferences formed during the pandemic. In addition, the substantial investments grocery retailers are making in expanded online coverage and added services such as two-hour delivery will make it easier for more shoppers to shift more of their grocery dollars from the store to online.”
– John Owen, Associate Director, Food and Retail

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

          • The issues
            • Long-term growth to continue after 2020 spike
              • Figure 1: Total US online sales and forecast of groceries*, at current prices, 2015-25
            • More grocery shoppers go online
              • Figure 2: Grocery shopping methods, February 2020
            • Considerable interest in online among store-only shoppers
              • Figure 3: Interest in future online shopping among store-only shoppers, February 2020
            • Preference for in-person selection keeps shoppers from buying online
              • Figure 4: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more, February 2020
            • The opportunities
              • More frequent online grocery shoppers drawn by experiential factors
                • Figure 5: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by online shopping frequency, February 2020
              • Most frequent online shoppers prioritize fresh
                • Figure 6: Reasons for selecting online retailer used most often, by online shopping frequency, February 2020
              • An opportunity to move more quick fill-in trips online
                • Figure 7: Preferred shopping method for different grocery trip types, February 2020
              • Young shoppers hold a positive view and high expectations of online grocery
                • Figure 8: Attitudes toward online grocery shopping, by age, February 2020
            • Impact of COVID-19 on Grocery eCommerce

                • Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVD-19 on grocery ecommerce, June 2020
              • Opportunities and threats
                • More grocery shoppers go online
                  • Figure 10: Grocery shopping methods, February 2020
                • Retailers, delivery services expand ecommerce capacity to meet increased demand
                  • Figure 11: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – Online shopping, April-July 2020
                • An opportunity to move more quick fill-in trips online
                  • Figure 12: Preferred shopping method for different grocery trip types, February 2020
                • Long-term success for ecommerce may hinge on shopper satisfaction during pandemic
                  • Figure 13: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more – Selection, by shopping method and online shopping frequency, February 2020
                • Despite shift to ecommerce, pull of the store remains strong among some shoppers
                  • Figure 14: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more – Preference for in-store, by shopping method and online shopping frequency, February 2020
                • Impact on grocery ecommerce
                  • After a brief dip, ecommerce gains share
                    • Figure 15: Total ecommerce share of omni-channel food/drink sales, January-May 2020
                  • Long-term growth to continue after 2020 spike
                    • Figure 16: Total US online sales and forecast of groceries*, at current prices, 2015-25
                  • How the crisis will affect grocery ecommerce’s key consumer segments
                    • Younger shoppers, focused on convenience, remain a key target
                      • Older shoppers emerge as new opportunity
                        • Figure 17: Coronavirus lifestyle changes, June 11-24, 2020
                      • How a COVID-10 recession will reshape the grocery ecommerce industry
                        • Need to economize will focus some online shoppers on savings
                          • Figure 18: Grocery shopping methods, by household income, February 2020
                        • COVID-19: US context
                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                          • Long-term growth to continue after 2020 spike
                            • Food and beverages driving growth
                              • Continued concern about exposure may keep grocery shoppers online
                                • Growth of online grocery amid pandemic follows broader ecommerce trend
                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                  • Long-term growth to continue after 2020 spike
                                    • Figure 19: Total US online sales and forecast of groceries*, at current prices, 2015-25
                                • Market Segmentation

                                  • Food and beverages driving growth
                                    • Figure 20: Total US online sales of groceries*, by segment, at current prices, 2015-20
                                • Market Factors

                                  • Continued concern about exposure may keep grocery shoppers online
                                    • Figure 21: Coronavirus exposure and lifestyle disruption concerns – any worried, April-July 2020
                                  • Desire to limit time spent in store remains strong
                                    • Figure 22: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – Online shopping, April-June 2020
                                  • Growth of online grocery amid pandemic follows broader ecommerce trend
                                    • Figure 23: Total US retail ecommerce sales and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
                                • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                  • Retailers, services expand eCommerce capacity to meet demand
                                    • An opportunity to move more quick fill-in trips online
                                      • An opportunity to move more quick fill-in trips online
                                      • What’s Happening

                                        • Retailers, services expand ecommerce capacity to meet demand
                                          • An opportunity to move more quick fill-in trips online
                                          • What to Watch

                                            • Leveraging technology to make online shopping more idea-driven
                                              • Ideas based on items in cart, previous purchases, and culinary preferences
                                                • Taking items in the pantry into account
                                                  • Letting home appliances do the shopping
                                                    • Streamlining curbside pickup
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Most grocery shopping still happens in-store, but online is gaining
                                                        • Center-store categories a focus of online shopping
                                                          • Considerable interest in online among store-only shoppers
                                                            • Current online shoppers may be biggest ecommerce growth opportunity
                                                              • Time-savings is key, but other factors likely to rise in importance
                                                                • Experience with online shopping helps to break down barriers
                                                                  • Walmart closes gap on Amazon
                                                                    • Most frequent online shoppers prioritize fresh
                                                                      • Majority of online shoppers still prefer store for small trips
                                                                        • Opportunity to break the routine of online grocery shopping
                                                                        • Grocery Shopping Overview

                                                                          • Most adults do at least some grocery shopping
                                                                            • Figure 24: Grocery shopping responsibility, by gender and age, February 2020
                                                                          • Shopping frequency likely declining amid COVID-19
                                                                            • Figure 25: Grocery shopping frequency, by gender and age, February 2020
                                                                          • Most grocery shopping still happens in-store, but online is gaining
                                                                            • Figure 26: Grocery shopping methods, by age, household income, and household size, February 2020
                                                                          • Major categories online vs in-store
                                                                            • Figure 27: Major grocery categories, online vs instore, February 2020
                                                                        • Interest in Future Online Grocery Shopping

                                                                          • Considerable interest in online among store-only shoppers
                                                                            • Figure 28: Interest in future online shopping among store-only shoppers, February 2020
                                                                          • Younger store-only shoppers more likely to express interest in online
                                                                            • Figure 29: Interest in future online shopping among store-only shoppers, by age, February 2020
                                                                          • Current online shoppers may be biggest ecommerce growth opportunity
                                                                            • Figure 30: Anticipated amount of online shopping among online shoppers, February 2020
                                                                        • Reasons for Shopping Online

                                                                          • Time-savings is key, but other factors likely to rise in importance
                                                                            • Figure 31: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, February 2020
                                                                          • More frequent online grocery shoppers drawn by experiential factors
                                                                            • Figure 32: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, by online shopping frequency, February 2020
                                                                        • Reasons for Not Shopping Online More

                                                                          • Preference for in-person selection keeps shoppers from buying online
                                                                            • Figure 33: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more, February 2020
                                                                          • Strong reassurances on fresh item selection needed to sway older shoppers
                                                                            • Figure 34: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more, by age, February 2020
                                                                          • Experience with online shopping helps to break down barriers
                                                                            • Figure 35: Reasons for not shopping online for groceries more, by shopping method and online shopping frequency, February 2020
                                                                        • Online Retailers for Grocery Purchasing

                                                                          • Walmart closes gap on Amazon
                                                                            • Figure 36: Online retailers for grocery purchasing, February 2020
                                                                          • Frequent online shoppers more likely to look past Amazon, Walmart
                                                                            • Figure 37: Online retailers for grocery purchasing, by online shopping frequency, February 2020
                                                                        • Reasons for Selecting Online Retailer Used Most Often

                                                                          • Convenience outweighs price in online retailer selection
                                                                            • Figure 38: Reasons for selecting online retailer used most often, February 2020
                                                                          • Younger online grocery shoppers especially attuned to value
                                                                            • Figure 39: Reasons for selecting online retailer used most often, by age, February 2020
                                                                          • Most frequent online shoppers prioritize fresh
                                                                            • Figure 40: Reasons for selecting online retailer used most often, by online shopping frequency, February 2020
                                                                        • Preferred Shopping Methods

                                                                          • Majority of online shoppers still prefer store for small trips
                                                                            • Figure 41: Preferred shopping method for different grocery trip types, by frequency of online shopping, February 2020
                                                                        • Devices Used in Online Grocery Shopping

                                                                          • Mobile devices step into the lead
                                                                            • Figure 42: Devices used in online grocery shopping, February 2020
                                                                          • Younger shoppers favor integrated mobile grocery shopping apps
                                                                            • Figure 43: Devices used in online grocery shopping, by age, February 2020
                                                                        • Attitudes toward Online Grocery Shopping

                                                                          • Opportunity to break the routine of online grocery shopping
                                                                            • Figure 44: Attitudes toward online grocery shopping, February 2020
                                                                          • Young shoppers hold a positive view and high expectations of online grocery
                                                                            • Figure 45: Attitudes toward online grocery shopping, by age, February 2020
                                                                          • Satisfaction with fresh foods key to higher online shopping frequency
                                                                            • Figure 46: Attitudes toward online grocery shopping, by online grocery shopping frequency, February 2020
                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                          • Data sources
                                                                            • Sales data
                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                                  • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                        • Terms

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