Description

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the U.S Baking and Mixes markets, including the behaviors, preferences and habits of the consumer.

The baking category experienced unprecedented gains in 2020 from a surge in at-home baking during the COVID-19 pandemic, that led to $8.3 billion in sales. A strong share of US adults plan to continue baking more often than they were in 2020, a sign that at least some at-home baking habits will stick. However, challenges remain, and brands will need to address perceptions that baking is difficult and time-consuming. Scratch bakers are the most likely to anticipate continued baking, leaving the baking mix segment with a less clear path to preserving 2020 gains. Bakers of all types will need motivation and guidance to incorporate their baking hobby into their time-strapped, post-pandemic daily lives.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our U.S Food market research.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the baking mixes and ingredients market.
  • The impact of past recessions on baking mix and ingredients sales.
  • Change of baking frequency over the past year.
  • Reasons for baking more often than last year.

Covered in this report

Baking mixes included: Cake and pastry mixes, bread and cookies mixes, pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, pie crust and fillings plus more.

Brands included: General Mills Inc, Nestle SA, Brynwood Partners/Hometown Food Company, Conagra Brands Inc, Continental Mills Inc, The King Arthur Baking Company, Lindt & Sprüngli AG, PepsiCo Inc, The Hershey Company, Associated British Foods plc and more.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Kaitlin Kamp, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The market for baking and dessert mixes is a large one, valued at nearly $4 billion. However, it continues to shrink, following a pattern that has endured for much of the past decade. That lack of growth is not necessarily the result of consumer dissatisfaction, but it is resulting more from a consumer interest in options that are even more convenient and easy – namely, options from stand-alone and in-store bakeries.

Kaitlin Kamp
Food & Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Definition
    • COVID-19: Market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes
      • Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes, March 2020
    • Opportunities and Challenges
    • Re-emergence
    • The baking trend lives on, but mixes will need to appeal in new ways
      • Figure 4: Change in baking frequency, January 2021
      • Figure 5: Change in baking frequency, by baking consumer segmentation, January 2021
    • Tap into the emotional and mental benefits of baking
      • Figure 6: Reasons for baking more often, January 2021
    • Recovery
    • Encourage consumers to bake their own snacks
      • Figure 7: Baked goods occasions, January 2021
    • Keep the baking excitement alive with novel flavors and ingredients
      • Figure 8: Baking mix innovation to motivate trial, January 2021
  3. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • Baking mix and ingredients sales skyrocket
    • Baking ingredients projected to retain stronger gains than mixes
    • Promote baking as a form of self-care
    • Better-for-you is an opportunity for some
    • Social media an important outlet for baking brands
  4. Market Size and Forecast

    • Surge in at-home baking drives unprecedented growth
      • Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes
      • Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes, March 2020
    • Lockdown
    • Re-emergence
    • Recovery
    • COVID-19: US context
    • Learnings from the last recession
      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2008-12
  5. Segment Performance

    • Baking ingredients expected to hold on to gains longer than mixes
      • Figure 13: Sales of baking mixes and ingredients, by segment, 2015-25
      • Figure 14: Market share of baking mixes and ingredients, by segment, 2020
  6. Market Factors

    • Consumer confidence remains unsteady
      • Figure 15: US consumer confidence, January 2019-21
    • In-store bakeries face temporary challenges
      • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Scratch baking burnout on the horizon
      • Figure 17: COVID-19 related changes in food and drink behavior, July 2020
    • Consumers haven’t hit the green light on gatherings just yet
    • COVID-19 shines a spotlight on mental health
      • Figure 18: Attention to mental health, May 2020
    • Cannabis edibles a budding opportunity for baked goods
      • Figure 19: Experience and interest in food/drinks with cannabis – net, January 2020
  7. Market Opportunities

    • DIY sweet snacking
      • Figure 20: Snack-friendly baking mixes
    • Keep the baking excitement alive with novel flavors, formats
      • Figure 21: Novel baking mixes and ingredients
    • Re-start social media conversations
      • Figure 22: Monthly social media mentions of at-home baking on Instagram, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
      • Figure 23: Top baking hashtags, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
      • Figure 24: Consumer-driven social media engagement examples
    • Eye candy
      • Figure 25: Social media posts featuring eye-catching baked goods
    • Focus on health where it matters
      • Figure 26: BFY baking mixes for breakfast and snacks
    • Start with nutrient-dense ingredients
      • Figure 27: Baking ingredients launches featuring alternative flours
    • Highlight the emotional benefits of baking
      • Figure 28: King Arthur Flour Instagram posts
  8. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Category players make gains across the board
    • Private label BFY innovation rivals baking ingredient brands
    • Duncan Hines leverages social media trends for product inspiration
    • Brands bring BFY to baking
    • Bringing nostalgic flavors to new formats to deliver comfort and excitement
  9. Market Share

    • General Mills leads; King Arthur Flour is the growth standout
      • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes and ingredients, by leading companies, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes and ingredients, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 31: Perception of King Arthur Flour baking ingredients and mixes vs all other brands, January-December 2020
    • Both specialty and legacy baking mix brands see success
      • Figure 32: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 33: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, percent sales change, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
    • Private label ingredients positioned to steal brand thunder
      • Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, not including flour, by leading companies and brands, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 35: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, not including flour, by leading companies and brands, percent sales change, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 36: Multi-outlet sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 37: Multi-outlet sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, percent sales change, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
  10. Competitive Strategies

    • Free-from and suitable-for expand baking audience
      • Figure 38: Baking mixes and ingredients suitable for specialized diets
    • Nostalgic products tug at heartstrings, keep consumers coming back to the category
      • Figure 39: Nostalgic flavors in baking ingredients and mixes
    • Curbing sugar concerns
      • Figure 40: Baking mixes and ingredients with low/no and alternative sweeteners
    • Duncan Hines makes an EPIC use of social media trends
      • Figure 41: Duncan Hines Epic product collection
  11. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • Most US adults bake, but are driven by a unique set of motivations
    • 41% of US adults are baking more often
    • Consumers are baking for the experience, not just the sweet treat
    • Embrace daily snacks and meals as baked good occasions
    • Flavor and ease of use the top purchasing factors for baking mixes
    • Don’t underestimate the role of social media in baking
    • Novelty can drive trial
  12. Baking Consumer Segmentation

    • The majority of US adults bake at home with some frequency
      • Figure 42: Baking consumer segmentation, January 2021
  13. Baking Mix Usage

    • Baking mix consumers are reaching for a variety of products
      • Figure 43: Baking mix usage, repertoire, January 2021
    • Consumers aged 25-44 motivated to use more products to hone their craft
      • Figure 44: Baking mix usage, repertoire, by age, January 2021
    • Family baking keeps parents’ repertoires wide
      • Figure 45: Baking mix usage, repertoire, by parental status, January 2021
  14. Pre-Made Baked Good Purchases

    • Disrupt perceptions that baking is difficult
      • Figure 46: Pre-made baked good purchase vs baking mix usage, January 2021
    • Consider rivaling pre-made products with convenience and smaller sizes
      • Figure 47: Crosstab pre-made baked good purchase by baking mix usage, January 2021
  15. Change in Baking Frequency

    • 41% of US adults increased baking frequency during COVID-19 pandemic
      • Figure 48: Change in baking frequency, January 2021
    • Scratch baking to keep the most momentum
      • Figure 49: Change in baking frequency, by baking consumer segmentation, January 2021
    • Keep Gen Zers and Millennials engaged with novelty
      • Figure 50: Change in baking frequency, by generation, January 2021
    • Encourage family fun, but don’t forget about small households
      • Figure 51: Farin’UP Belgian Waffles Mix
      • Figure 52: Change in baking frequency, by parental status and household size, January 2021
    • Baking is somewhat dispensable
      • Figure 53: Change in baking frequency, by financial situation, January 2021
  16. Reasons for Baking More Often

    • The benefits of baking go beyond baked goods
      • Figure 54: Reasons for baking more often, January 2021
    • Those 18-44 are building their baking skills
      • Figure 55: Reasons for baking more often, by age, January 2021
    • Brands can help parents enhance productivity and accomplish goals
      • Figure 56: Reasons for baking more often, by parental status, January 2021
  17. Baked Goods Occasions

    • Maximize baked goods’ relevance by allowing everyday occasions
    • Target the most important meal of the day
      • Figure 57: Baked goods occasions, January 2021
    • Growing snacking usage can expand repertoires
      • Figure 58: Baked goods occasions, as a snack, by baking mixes used repertoire, January 2021
  18. Important Baking Mix Purchase Factors

    • Flavor and convenience drive baking mix choice
    • Time savings and ease of use can communicate convenience
    • Premium quality is an opportunity
      • Figure 59: Important baking mix purchase factors, January 2021
    • Bread mixes and ingredients can rise to the BFY occasion
      • Figure 60: Crosstab important baking mix purchase factors, by baking mix usage, January 2021
  19. Baking Attitudes

    • Flavor innovation can inspire trial
      • Figure 61: Baking attitudes – Flavor, net any agree, flavor statements, January 2021
      • Figure 62: Baking attitudes – Flavor, net any agree, by generation, January 2021
    • BFY efforts should be targeted
      • Figure 63: Baking attitudes – Health, net any agree, January 2021
    • Revitalize social media conversations to engage home baking enthusiasts
      • Figure 64: Baking attitudes – Discovery, net any agree, January 2021
      • Figure 65: Baking attitudes net any agree, social media, by generation, January 2021
    • Health, experimentation can help retain consumers who might otherwise stray
      • Figure 66: Crosstab baking attitudes, by change in baking frequency, January 2021
  20. Baking Mix Innovation to Motivate Trial

    • New flavors and formats extend baking mixes beyond COVID-19 pandemic
      • Figure 67: Baking mix innovation to motivate trial, January 2021
      • Figure 68: Kodiak Cakes Protein Balls Mix
    • Different bakers have different needs
      • Figure 69: Baking mix innovation by baking segmentation, January 2021
    • TURF analysis – use snack-sized products to trial innovation
      • Figure 70: Baking mix innovation TURF analysis, January 2021
    • Recently engaged bakers have an eye on innovation
      • Figure 71: Crosstab baking mix innovation, by change in baking frequency, January 2021
  21. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Forecast
    • Consumer survey data
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
  22. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes and ingredients, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 73: Average household spending on baking/dessert mixes and ingredients, by segment, 2015-20
      • Figure 74: Total US retail sales of baking/dessert mixes and ingredients, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
      • Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by value and volume, 2015-20
      • Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
      • Figure 80: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, by value and volume, 2015-20
  23. Appendix – Retail Channels

      • Figure 81: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
      • Figure 82: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
      • Figure 83: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2015-20
      • Figure 84: US sales of baking and dessert mixes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
  24. Appendix – Brands and Companies

      • Figure 85: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 86: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 87: Multi-outlet sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020

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