US Baking and Mixes Market Report 2021
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Description
Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the U.S Baking and Mixes markets, including the behaviors, preferences and habits of the consumer.
The baking category experienced unprecedented gains in 2020 from a surge in at-home baking during the COVID-19 pandemic, that led to $8.3 billion in sales. A strong share of US adults plan to continue baking more often than they were in 2020, a sign that at least some at-home baking habits will stick. However, challenges remain, and brands will need to address perceptions that baking is difficult and time-consuming. Scratch bakers are the most likely to anticipate continued baking, leaving the baking mix segment with a less clear path to preserving 2020 gains. Bakers of all types will need motivation and guidance to incorporate their baking hobby into their time-strapped, post-pandemic daily lives.
Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our U.S Food market research.
Quickly understand
- The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the baking mixes and ingredients market.
- The impact of past recessions on baking mix and ingredients sales.
- Change of baking frequency over the past year.
- Reasons for baking more often than last year.
Covered in this report
Baking mixes included:Â Cake and pastry mixes, bread and cookies mixes, pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, pie crust and fillings plus more.
Brands included: General Mills Inc, Nestle SA, Brynwood Partners/Hometown Food Company, Conagra Brands Inc, Continental Mills Inc, The King Arthur Baking Company, Lindt & Sprüngli AG, PepsiCo Inc, The Hershey Company, Associated British Foods plc and more.
Expert analysis from a specialist in the field
Written by Kaitlin Kamp, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.
The market for baking and dessert mixes is a large one, valued at nearly $4 billion. However, it continues to shrink, following a pattern that has endured for much of the past decade. That lack of growth is not necessarily the result of consumer dissatisfaction, but it is resulting more from a consumer interest in options that are even more convenient and easy – namely, options from stand-alone and in-store bakeries.
Kaitlin Kamp
Food & Drink Analyst
Table of Contents
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Overview
- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definition
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
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Executive Summary
- Top takeaways
- Market overview
- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes
- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes, March 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence
- The baking trend lives on, but mixes will need to appeal in new ways
- Figure 4: Change in baking frequency, January 2021
- Figure 5: Change in baking frequency, by baking consumer segmentation, January 2021
- Tap into the emotional and mental benefits of baking
- Figure 6: Reasons for baking more often, January 2021
- Recovery
- Encourage consumers to bake their own snacks
- Figure 7: Baked goods occasions, January 2021
- Keep the baking excitement alive with novel flavors and ingredients
- Figure 8: Baking mix innovation to motivate trial, January 2021
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The Market – Key Takeaways
- Baking mix and ingredients sales skyrocket
- Baking ingredients projected to retain stronger gains than mixes
- Promote baking as a form of self-care
- Better-for-you is an opportunity for some
- Social media an important outlet for baking brands
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Market Size and Forecast
- Surge in at-home baking drives unprecedented growth
- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes and ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes
- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on baking and mixes, March 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2008-12
- Surge in at-home baking drives unprecedented growth
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Segment Performance
- Baking ingredients expected to hold on to gains longer than mixes
- Figure 13: Sales of baking mixes and ingredients, by segment, 2015-25
- Figure 14: Market share of baking mixes and ingredients, by segment, 2020
- Baking ingredients expected to hold on to gains longer than mixes
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Market Factors
- Consumer confidence remains unsteady
- Figure 15: US consumer confidence, January 2019-21
- In-store bakeries face temporary challenges
- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
- Scratch baking burnout on the horizon
- Figure 17: COVID-19 related changes in food and drink behavior, July 2020
- Consumers haven’t hit the green light on gatherings just yet
- COVID-19 shines a spotlight on mental health
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- Figure 18: Attention to mental health, May 2020
- Cannabis edibles a budding opportunity for baked goods
- Figure 19: Experience and interest in food/drinks with cannabis – net, January 2020
- Consumer confidence remains unsteady
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Market Opportunities
- DIY sweet snacking
- Figure 20: Snack-friendly baking mixes
- Keep the baking excitement alive with novel flavors, formats
- Figure 21: Novel baking mixes and ingredients
- Re-start social media conversations
- Figure 22: Monthly social media mentions of at-home baking on Instagram, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
- Figure 23: Top baking hashtags, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
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- Figure 24: Consumer-driven social media engagement examples
- Eye candy
- Figure 25: Social media posts featuring eye-catching baked goods
- Focus on health where it matters
- Figure 26: BFY baking mixes for breakfast and snacks
- Start with nutrient-dense ingredients
- Figure 27: Baking ingredients launches featuring alternative flours
- Highlight the emotional benefits of baking
- Figure 28: King Arthur Flour Instagram posts
- DIY sweet snacking
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Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
- Category players make gains across the board
- Private label BFY innovation rivals baking ingredient brands
- Duncan Hines leverages social media trends for product inspiration
- Brands bring BFY to baking
- Bringing nostalgic flavors to new formats to deliver comfort and excitement
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Market Share
- General Mills leads; King Arthur Flour is the growth standout
- Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes and ingredients, by leading companies, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes and ingredients, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 31: Perception of King Arthur Flour baking ingredients and mixes vs all other brands, January-December 2020
- Both specialty and legacy baking mix brands see success
- Figure 32: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 33: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, percent sales change, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Private label ingredients positioned to steal brand thunder
- Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, not including flour, by leading companies and brands, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 35: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, not including flour, by leading companies and brands, percent sales change, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 36: Multi-outlet sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, percent share, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 37: Multi-outlet sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, percent sales change, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- General Mills leads; King Arthur Flour is the growth standout
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Competitive Strategies
- Free-from and suitable-for expand baking audience
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- Figure 38: Baking mixes and ingredients suitable for specialized diets
- Nostalgic products tug at heartstrings, keep consumers coming back to the category
- Figure 39: Nostalgic flavors in baking ingredients and mixes
- Curbing sugar concerns
- Figure 40: Baking mixes and ingredients with low/no and alternative sweeteners
- Duncan Hines makes an EPIC use of social media trends
- Figure 41: Duncan Hines Epic product collection
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The Consumer – Key Takeaways
- Most US adults bake, but are driven by a unique set of motivations
- 41% of US adults are baking more often
- Consumers are baking for the experience, not just the sweet treat
- Embrace daily snacks and meals as baked good occasions
- Flavor and ease of use the top purchasing factors for baking mixes
- Don’t underestimate the role of social media in baking
- Novelty can drive trial
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Baking Consumer Segmentation
- The majority of US adults bake at home with some frequency
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- Figure 42: Baking consumer segmentation, January 2021
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Baking Mix Usage
- Baking mix consumers are reaching for a variety of products
- Figure 43: Baking mix usage, repertoire, January 2021
- Consumers aged 25-44 motivated to use more products to hone their craft
- Figure 44: Baking mix usage, repertoire, by age, January 2021
- Family baking keeps parents’ repertoires wide
- Figure 45: Baking mix usage, repertoire, by parental status, January 2021
- Baking mix consumers are reaching for a variety of products
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Pre-Made Baked Good Purchases
- Disrupt perceptions that baking is difficult
- Figure 46: Pre-made baked good purchase vs baking mix usage, January 2021
- Consider rivaling pre-made products with convenience and smaller sizes
- Figure 47: Crosstab pre-made baked good purchase by baking mix usage, January 2021
- Disrupt perceptions that baking is difficult
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Change in Baking Frequency
- 41% of US adults increased baking frequency during COVID-19 pandemic
- Figure 48: Change in baking frequency, January 2021
- Scratch baking to keep the most momentum
- Figure 49: Change in baking frequency, by baking consumer segmentation, January 2021
- Keep Gen Zers and Millennials engaged with novelty
- Figure 50: Change in baking frequency, by generation, January 2021
- Encourage family fun, but don’t forget about small households
- Figure 51: Farin’UP Belgian Waffles Mix
- Figure 52: Change in baking frequency, by parental status and household size, January 2021
- Baking is somewhat dispensable
- Figure 53: Change in baking frequency, by financial situation, January 2021
- 41% of US adults increased baking frequency during COVID-19 pandemic
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Reasons for Baking More Often
- The benefits of baking go beyond baked goods
- Figure 54: Reasons for baking more often, January 2021
- Those 18-44 are building their baking skills
- Figure 55: Reasons for baking more often, by age, January 2021
- Brands can help parents enhance productivity and accomplish goals
- Figure 56: Reasons for baking more often, by parental status, January 2021
- The benefits of baking go beyond baked goods
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Baked Goods Occasions
- Maximize baked goods’ relevance by allowing everyday occasions
- Target the most important meal of the day
- Figure 57: Baked goods occasions, January 2021
- Growing snacking usage can expand repertoires
- Figure 58: Baked goods occasions, as a snack, by baking mixes used repertoire, January 2021
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Important Baking Mix Purchase Factors
- Flavor and convenience drive baking mix choice
- Time savings and ease of use can communicate convenience
- Premium quality is an opportunity
- Figure 59: Important baking mix purchase factors, January 2021
- Bread mixes and ingredients can rise to the BFY occasion
- Figure 60: Crosstab important baking mix purchase factors, by baking mix usage, January 2021
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Baking Attitudes
- Flavor innovation can inspire trial
- Figure 61: Baking attitudes – Flavor, net any agree, flavor statements, January 2021
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- Figure 62: Baking attitudes – Flavor, net any agree, by generation, January 2021
- BFY efforts should be targeted
- Figure 63: Baking attitudes – Health, net any agree, January 2021
- Revitalize social media conversations to engage home baking enthusiasts
- Figure 64: Baking attitudes – Discovery, net any agree, January 2021
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- Figure 65: Baking attitudes net any agree, social media, by generation, January 2021
- Health, experimentation can help retain consumers who might otherwise stray
- Figure 66: Crosstab baking attitudes, by change in baking frequency, January 2021
- Flavor innovation can inspire trial
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Baking Mix Innovation to Motivate Trial
- New flavors and formats extend baking mixes beyond COVID-19 pandemic
- Figure 67: Baking mix innovation to motivate trial, January 2021
- Figure 68: Kodiak Cakes Protein Balls Mix
- Different bakers have different needs
- Figure 69: Baking mix innovation by baking segmentation, January 2021
- TURF analysis – use snack-sized products to trial innovation
- Figure 70: Baking mix innovation TURF analysis, January 2021
- Recently engaged bakers have an eye on innovation
- Figure 71: Crosstab baking mix innovation, by change in baking frequency, January 2021
- New flavors and formats extend baking mixes beyond COVID-19 pandemic
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes and ingredients, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 73: Average household spending on baking/dessert mixes and ingredients, by segment, 2015-20
- Figure 74: Total US retail sales of baking/dessert mixes and ingredients, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by value and volume, 2015-20
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 80: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, by value and volume, 2015-20
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 81: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 82: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 83: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 84: US sales of baking and dessert mixes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Brands and Companies
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- Figure 85: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 86: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 87: Multi-outlet sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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