Description
This US coffee market and ready to drink (RTD) coffee market report provides a complete view of the coffee industry in the US, alongside expert analysis. Inside the full report you’ll find market sizes, anticipated market forecast, coffee market segmentation, and the latest industry trends. Our report segments the US Coffee Market into roasted coffee, single-cup coffee, instant coffee and read to drink coffee.
US Coffee Market Overview
The retail coffee market is positioned for continued growth, as macroeconomic conditions and changes in consumers’ coffee routines all largely benefit coffee brands.
Consumers (especially remote workers) upgraded their home coffee bars throughout the pandemic, resulting in the increased consumption of home-sourced premium and specialty coffee drinks.
This rise in home coffee experimentation along with the growing influence of social media on coffee culture suggests that the US coffee market is entering its fourth wave, a wave that will center around home, rather than foodservice, drink innovation.
Furthermore, increased economic uncertainty and inflation will drive retail coffee sales as consumers reduce their foodservice expenditures.
US Coffee Market Key Trends
- Coffee is a growing market within the total non-alcoholic beverage industry, with sales reaching an estimated $18.9 billion in 2022, an increase of 33.2% from 2017.
- A combination of inflation/rising coffee prices and shifts in consumers’ coffee preferences will drive future coffee sales.
- The market at large benefits from increased consumer interest in premium coffees, the popularity of higher-priced coffee formats (eg single-cup and RTD coffee) among Gen Z consumers, and increased coffee consumption stemming in part from the rise of remote work.
Future of the US Coffee Market
A decrease in away-from-home coffee purchases signals opportunities for brands to offer consumers premium at-home coffee experiences and educate consumers on how to best replicate their favorite coffee shop drinks. Though a certain level of economic uncertainty represents a net positive for the coffee market, a notable economic downturn would dampen retail coffee sales, indicating a need for coffee brands to provide consumers a superior value.
Coffee brands must respond to the growing influence of Gen Z consumers, a generation that primarily prefers cold RTD coffee to hot coffee beverages; only half of Gen Z coffee consumers even own a drip coffee brewer. Appeal to Gen Z’s love of flavorful coffee drinks and develop new indulgent, treat-like RTD coffees and create new functional coffees that provide Gen Z consumers the energy they need to accomplish their goals.
Find more Mintel market research reports on Coffee, or take a look at our other Non-alcoholic drinks market research reports.
Quickly Understand This Report
- Impact of rising inflation on the coffee and creamer markets.
- Growing influence of fourth-wave coffee.
- RTD coffee market innovation opportunities.
- Coffee additive and appliance opportunities.
US Coffee Brands Covered
For information on the US foodservice coffee market, see Mintel’s Foodservice Coffee and Tea Market Report.
Brands include: Dunkin’, Starbucks, Copper Moon, Our Gorongosa, Kuju Coffee, Café Fair, JM Smucker Company, North American Coffee Partnership, Keurig Dr. Pepper Inc, Kraft Heinz, JAB Holding, Danone North America, Coffee Mate, International Delight, Silk, La Colombe, Blue Bottle Coffee, Stumptown, Big Face Coffee, Blk & Bold, Chamberlain Coffee, Black Rifle Coffee Co, Nutella, Swig, Barissimo, SoCal Soffee Coffee, PC President’s Choice, Malaki, Sea Dog Coffee Co, Mivana Organic, Dare, Watsons, NooWave, Pop & Bottle, Taika, Clevr SuperLatte, Fabula, LIfeboost, Golden Ratio, Fabula, Lifeboost, Golden Ratio, Clean Coffee Co, Atomo, Slingshot, Saltwater, Two Bears, Suntory Boss Coffee, SE Grocers Prestige, Trader Joe’s, Kroger Private Selection, AmazonFresh.
Expert Analysis From a Drink Specialist
This report, written by Caleb Bryant, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis on coffee and RTD coffee market research to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.
Consumers are looking to cut costs following rising inflation, creating opportunities for coffee brands to capitalize on consumers’ decrease in foodservice expenditures. Consumers’ investments in their home coffee bars made during the pandemic are paying off as consumers increasingly experiment with new coffee drinks within the home, offering growth opportunities for coffee brands, coffee additives, and coffee accessories.
Caleb Bryant
Associate Director of Food and Drink Reports
Table of Contents
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Overview
- What you need to know
- This Report looks at the following areas
- Definition
- Market context
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Executive Summary
- Top takeaways
- Market overview
- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
- Figure 3: Category outlook, 2022-27
- Opportunities and challenges
- A certain level of economic unease benefits the retail coffee market
- Figure 4: changes in coffee purchase behaviors following rising prices, by financial situation, 2022
- Premium at-home drinks define fourth-wave coffee
- Figure 5: Coffee accessory ownership, by remote work status, 2022
- Figure 6: Trended sweetener and specialty additive usage by type, 2018-22
- Social media influencers shape coffee culture
- Figure 7: Coffee information sources, by generation, 2022
- Flavor and function are growth opportunities within the fast-growing RTD coffee segment
- Figure 8: RTD coffee product interest, 2022
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Market Size and Forecast
- Coffee market climbs
- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at current prices, 2017-27
- Cream and creamer piggyback off the coffee market’s growth
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, at current prices, 2017-27
- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, at current prices, 2017-27
- Coffee market climbs
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Segment Performance
- Rising prices, trading-up behaviors, increased consumption drive up the coffee market
- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
- Creamer rises alongside coffee
- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
- Rising prices, trading-up behaviors, increased consumption drive up the coffee market
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Market Factors
- Rising coffee prices and high inflation is a double-edged sword
- Figure 17: Trended financial situation, 2022-22
- Create premium coffee options for remote workers
- Climate change threatens the future of coffee
- Figure 18: Coffee attitudes, any agree, by coffee enthusiasts, 2022
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- Figure 19: US coffee launches, % of launches by ethical/environmental claims, 2018-22
- Rising coffee prices and high inflation is a double-edged sword
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Companies and Brands
- Coffee brands big and small enjoy market growth
- Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of coffee and RTD coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Creamer market defined by familiar indulgent brands and plant-based newcomers
- Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of creamer, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Coffee brands big and small enjoy market growth
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Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities
- Fourth-wave coffee and the home coffee revolution
- Brief history of coffee shop waves
- Fourth-wave coffee – characteristics
- “Bottom-up” nature of fourth-wave coffee will benefit retail coffee brands
- Creamer and soda – A match made in Utah
- Sparkling coffee redux
- Functional coffees fuel workers and students
- Create new coffee products for smaller households
- Figure 22: Households, by number of members, 2011 and 2021
- Increase in digestive health issues offers opportunities for a new generation of low-acid coffees
- Bean-less brews may be the solution to coffee’s climate challenge
- Snapchilled and flash brew coffee builds off cold brew’s foundation
- Rising inflation create opportunities for premium private label coffee
- European coffee is so second wave, look to Asia for inspiration
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The Consumer – Fast Facts
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Coffee Consumption
- Gen Z and Millennials redefine the coffee market
- Figure 23: Coffee consumption, by generation, 2022
- Create convenient, premium coffee offerings for remote workers
- Figure 24: Coffee consumption, by remote work status*, 2022
- Gen Z and Millennials redefine the coffee market
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Trended Usage of Coffee Creamers and Other Additives
- Consumer interest in flavorful coffee drinks drives creamer usage
- Figure 25: Trended creamer usage, 2021-22
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- Figure 26: Trended creamer usage by type, 2018-22
- Home barista trend offers growth opportunities for specialty coffee additives
- Figure 27: Trended sweetener and specialty additive usage by type, 2018-22
- Consumer interest in flavorful coffee drinks drives creamer usage
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Cold Coffee Consumption Frequency – MTO vs RTD
- Consumers habitually consume cold coffee drinks
- Figure 28: Cold coffee consumption frequency: MTO vs RTD, 2022
- Make RTD coffee an everyday beverage for Gen Z consumers
- Figure 29: Cold coffee consumption frequency: RTD, by generation, 2022
- Consumers habitually consume cold coffee drinks
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Coffee Purchase Factors
- Flavor and price dictate consumers’ coffee purchases
- Figure 30: Trended coffee purchase factors, by generation, 2020-22
- Ethical and environmental claims resonate with young high-income consumers
- Figure 31: Coffee purchase factors, by age and HHI, 2022
- Flavor innovation may bring more Black consumers into the coffee market
- Figure 32: Coffee purchase factors, by race/ethnicity, 2022
- Flavor and price dictate consumers’ coffee purchases
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Coffee Information Sources
- Social media shapes coffee culture
- Figure 33: Coffee information sources, 2022
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- Figure 34: Coffee information sources, by generation, 2022
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- Figure 35: Coffee information sources, by gender and age, 2022
- Social media shapes coffee culture
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Coffee Accessory Ownership and Interest
- Consumers are interested in upgrading their home coffee bars
- Figure 36: Coffee accessory ownership and interest, 2022
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- Figure 37: Coffee accessory ownership, by remote work status, 2022
- Provide Gen X consumers premium at-home coffee experiences
- Figure 38: Coffee accessory ownership, by generation, 2022
- Consumers are interested in upgrading their home coffee bars
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Cold Coffee Perception – MTO vs RTD
- Foodservice faces pressure from RTD coffee
- Figure 39: Cold beverage perception: MTO vs RTD, 2022
- Foodservice faces pressure from RTD coffee
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RTD Coffee Brand Loyalty
- Consumers are open to trying new RTD coffee brands
- Figure 40: RTD brand loyalty, 2022
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- Figure 41: RTD brand loyalty, by gender and age, 2022
- Consumers are open to trying new RTD coffee brands
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RTD Coffee – Packaging Interest
- Promote the value of multiserve and multiunit pack sizes
- Figure 42: RTD coffee packaging interest, 2022
- Promote the value of multiserve and multiunit pack sizes
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RTD Coffee Product Interest
- Lead with innovative indulgent flavors
- Figure 43: RTD coffee product interest, 2022
- Lead with innovative indulgent flavors
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Non-alcoholic Beverage Associations
- Functional RTD coffees can compete with energy drinks
- Figure 44: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map, non-alcoholic beverage associations, 2022
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- Figure 45: Non-alcoholic beverage associations, 2022
- Functional RTD coffees can compete with energy drinks
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Changes in Coffee Purchase Behaviors Following Rising Prices
- Value-conscious consumers will cut back on foodservice expenditures
- Figure 46: changes in coffee purchase behaviors following rising prices, 2022
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- Figure 47: changes in coffee purchase behaviors following rising prices, by financial situation, 2022
- Gen Z at risk of dropping out of the coffee market due to rising prices
- Figure 48: changes in coffee purchase behaviors following rising prices, by generation, 2022
- Value-conscious consumers will cut back on foodservice expenditures
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Coffee Attitudes
- High-income consumers want premium, sustainable coffee products
- Figure 49: Coffee attitudes, any agree, by age and HHI, 2022
- Remote workers are upgrading their home coffee options
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- Figure 50: Coffee attitudes, any agree, by remote work status, 2022
- RTD and specialty coffee brands should go green
- Figure 51: Coffee attitudes, any agree, by coffee formats purchased, 2022
- High-income consumers want premium, sustainable coffee products
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at current prices, 2017-27
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2017-27
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2017-27
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- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at current prices, 2017-27
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales of coffee and RTD coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2017-22
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream, at current prices, 2017-27
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- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of creamer, at current prices, 2017-27
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Figure 62: Multi-outlet sales of single-cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
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- Figure 63: Multi-outlet sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Figure 64: Multi-outlet sales of ready-to-drink coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
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- Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of cream and creamer, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of cream, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
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About the report
This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.
Market
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Consumer
Mintel’s proprietary consumer research provides our analysts with the attitudinal and behavioral data used to provide valuable insight to topical issues.
Brand/Company
Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.
Data
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