Description

Understand the current trends and opportunities in the in-store bakery category in the US market. With Mintel’s expert research and analysis you can grow your business and tackle challenges in your industry. Our in-store bakery products market report examines market size and forecast, how consumers’ behavior and attitudes are changing, and provides recommendations for opportunities within the industry. Read on to discover our insights and learn more about our in-store bakery market research.

US In-Store Bakery – Current Market Landscape

Despite ongoing financial pressures, the in-store bakery industry saw an increase in market size over the last year. A change in consumer behavior was a key driver behind this. A greater desire for consumers to treat themselves or others motivated increased purchase of in-store bakery products. As did increased instances of eating-at-home as consumers sought to save money. 

As the economic outlook brightens, consumers will become less reliant on grocery shopping and eating-at-home. However, there will still be numerous opportunities for the in-store bakery market to sustain growth and expand its appeal to consumers.

In-Store Baked Goods Market Trends

After years of both health and economic hardship, consumers’ increased desire to treat themselves and their children is a driving force behind the in-store bakery market’s growth. Enjoying sweet treats is becoming more of a self-care habit than a guilty pleasure.

This increased treating behavior does present a challenge. Most consumers currently view in-store bakeries as an impulse dessert stop, rather than a destination for everyday groceries. This can limit the occasions that in-store bakery products are bought for.

  • In-store bakery market outlook: 82% of consumers say they are buying the same amount of products or more from in-store bakeries.
  • Consumer attitudes towards in-store bakery products: Of the consumers who are buying more in-store bakery items, 48% are doing so because they are treating themselves more. This number rises to 53% with the over 45s.
  • In-store bakery customer segmentation: In-store bakery products are becoming more popular with hybrid workers, with 37% buying more items than a year ago.
  • Opportunities for in-store bakeries: 39% of consumers are interested in single servings (e.g. a slice of cake, single bagel), indicating that in-store bakeries have an opportunity to attract consumers who are cutting back on foodservice.

In-Store Bakery Market Opportunities

There are opportunities to further strengthen treat connotations within the in-store bakery market. If brands follow shifting consumer attitudes and position themselves as a self-care item rather than a guilty pleasure, in-store bakeries can make their products the preferred choice over other treats. 

When considering sweet baked goods and dessert offerings, retailers and brands should be sure to include products that appeal to more mature and refined palates, in order to appeal to the growing market of over 45s eager for a treat.

Finally, as consumers look to save money, in-store bakery products can provide a cost-effective alternative to dining out. In order to reinforce this belief among consumers, brands should look to expand their single serving products and fresh meal solutions. Especially when the market’s increasing popularity with hybrid and home workers is considered.

Read on to discover more about our US In-Store Bakery Market Report, read our US Foodservice in Retail Market Report, or take a look at all of our food market research.

This Report Will Help You Quickly Understand

  • In-store bakery items purchased.
  • Factors driving in-store bakery purchases.
  • Changes in in-store bakery purchases.
  • Perceptions of baked good purchase locations.
  • Occasions for in-store bakery purchases.
  • Consumer attitudes towards in-store bakeries.

Popular Brands Covered in this Report

Walmart, Target, Whole Foods Market, Publix, 7-Eleven, Giant Eagle, Sendik’s Food Market, Meijer, Albertsons.

Expert Analysis from an Expert in the US Food Sector

This report, written by Sydney Olson, a leading senior analyst in the food industry, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the US in-store bakery market and add expert context to the numbers.

In-store bakeries currently benefit from financial motivation to eat at home. Successful ISBs will continue their evolution as a destination for everyday pick-me-ups and fresh meal solutions. While competition with center of store is stiff, presenting ISB as an alternative to foodservice highlights value alongside convenience, ease and freshness.

Sydney Olson, Food and Drink AnalystSydney Olson
Senior Food and Drink Analyst

 

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • This Report looks at the following areas
        • Definition
          • Market context
          • Executive Summary

              • Top takeaways
                • Consumer trends
                  • Parents remain a committed audience
                    • Figure 1: Items purchased, by parent status, 2023
                  • ISB is a staple for the WFH crowd, opportunity with hybrid workers
                    • Figure 2: Change in ISB purchases, by work situation, 2023
                  • Ample room to grow appeal with young consumers
                    • Figure 3: Purchase driving concepts, by age, 2023
                  • Expand the limited view among women
                    • Figure 4: ISB occasions, by gender, 2023
                  • Develop older adult-targeted treating strategies
                    • Figure 5: Reasons for buying more ISB items – Treating, by age, 2023
                  • Competitive strategies
                    • Global- and regional-inspired treats hit the high points for ISB
                      • Figure 6: Internationally inspired baked good launches, 2022
                      • Figure 7: Regionally inspired baked good launches, 2022
                    • Create value through versatility and convenience
                      • Figure 8: Baking kit launches, 2022
                      • Figure 9: Customized baked goods posts, 2022
                    • Appreciate employees, serve the consumer
                      • Figure 10: Baker spotlight posts, 2022
                    • Market predictions
                      • Figure 11: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery, at current prices, 2017-27
                      • Figure 12: Category outlook, 2023-28
                    • Opportunities
                      • Reinforce unguilty association
                        • Figure 13: Items purchased, 2023
                      • Foodservice stand in
                        • Figure 14: Purchase driving concepts, 2023
                      • Lead with information and innovation
                        • Figure 15: ISB attitudes, by age, 2023
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Inflation and surrounding impact drive enduring ISB growth
                        • Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery, at current prices, 2017-27
                        • Figure 17: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery, at current prices, 2017-27
                    • Segment Performance

                      • Maintain ISB dessert’s current momentum with new strategies
                        • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2017-27
                      • Breads and rolls ease home cooking tension
                        • Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2017-27
                      • Breakfast bakery offers relief and treats
                        • Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2017-27
                    • Market Factors

                      • Inflation has an outsized impact on baking categories
                        • Figure 21: IRI CPG Supply Index, 2023
                      • Peak of labor struggles are at the intersection of foodservice and retail
                        • At-home cooks need reprieve
                          • Figure 22: Change in mealtime behaviors, 2022
                        • ISB deserves unguilty association
                        • Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities

                          • Destination for global treats
                            • Figure 23: Internationally inspired baked good launches, 2022
                          • Regional offerings lower the barrier to entry
                            • Figure 24: Regionally inspired baked good launches, 2022
                          • Baking kits can alleviate stress of out of stocks and prices
                            • Figure 25: Baking kit launches, 2022
                          • Bridge gap between store-bought, homemade
                            • Figure 26: Customized baked goods posts, 2022
                          • Appreciate employees, win over consumers
                            • Figure 27: Baker spotlight posts, 2022
                          • ISB: part-time party planner
                            • Figure 28: Party planning posts, 2022
                        • The In-store Bakery Consumer – Fast Facts

                          • Consumers are not giving up ISB treats
                            • Innovation interests point to foodservice concepts
                              • ISB is meeting current socioeconomic needs
                                • ISB offers a middle ground between packaged aisle items and stand-alone bakeries
                                  • Growth through everyday occasions
                                  • ISB Purchases

                                    • Saving room for dessert
                                      • Figure 29: Items purchased, 2023
                                    • Value in ISB variety
                                      • Figure 30: Items purchased, repertoire, 2023
                                    • Ongoing opportunity with WFH audience
                                      • Figure 31: Items purchased, by work status, 2023
                                    • ISB wins parents despite aisle pressures
                                      • Figure 32: Items purchased, by parent status, 2023
                                    • Focusing on loyalty among parents
                                      • Figure 33: Items purchased – For who, 2022
                                  • Purchase Driving Concepts

                                    • Concepts of interest mirror foodservice
                                      • Figure 34: Purchase driving concepts, 2023
                                    • Women most interested in foodservice-like concepts
                                      • Figure 35: Purchase driving concepts, by gender, 2023
                                    • Young consumers primed for ISB innovation
                                      • Figure 36: Purchase driving concepts, by age, 2023
                                  • Change in Purchases

                                    • Most ISB purchasers are secure, for now
                                      • Figure 37: Change in ISB purchases, 2023
                                    • Support for hybrid schedules
                                      • Figure 38: Change in ISB purchases, by work situation, 2023
                                    • Need for value tier
                                      • Figure 39: Change in ISB purchases, by financial situation, 2023
                                    • Reasons for buying more
                                      • Value in reprieve
                                        • Figure 40: Reasons for buying more ISB items, 2023
                                      • Older adults lead treating
                                        • Figure 41: Reasons for buying more ISB items – Treating, by age, 2023
                                      • Reasons for buying less
                                        • Agility is ISBs winning trait
                                          • Figure 42: Reasons for buying fewer ISB items, 2023
                                        • Women show greater barrier to reengage
                                          • Figure 43: Reasons for buying fewer ISB items, by gender, 2023
                                      • Perceptions of Baked Good Purchase Locations

                                        • ISB bridges the gap
                                          • Figure 44: Attributes associated with baked goods locations, 2023
                                        • High-income consumers are less impressed
                                          • Figure 45: Attributes associated with baked goods locations – Select attributes, in-store bakery, by HHI, 2023
                                        • Parents still seeking convenience
                                          • Figure 46: Attributes associated with baked goods locations – Convenient, by parental status, 2023
                                      • ISB Occasions

                                        • Nurture everyday grocery occasion
                                          • Figure 47: ISB occasions, 2023
                                        • Younger generations need to refresh ideas about competitive set
                                          • Figure 48: ISB occasions, by generation, 2023
                                        • Women have more limited view of ISB
                                          • Figure 49: ISB occasions, by gender, 2023
                                      • ISB Attitudes

                                        • Let ISB replace foodservice, not center store
                                          • Figure 50: ISB attitudes, 2023
                                        • Young consumers more committed, more critical
                                          • Figure 51: ISB attitudes, by age, 2023
                                        • Improve customization for large households
                                          • Figure 52: ISB attitudes, by HH size, 2023
                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                        • Data sources
                                          • Sales data
                                            • Forecast
                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                • Marketing creative
                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                    • Appendix – The Market

                                                        • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 56: Average annual household spending on in-store bakery, 2017-22
                                                        • Figure 57: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery, by segment, at current prices, 2020 and 2022
                                                        • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2017-27
                                                        • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27

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