Description

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Multicultural Young Adults and Foodservice US market, including the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

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What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

As of July 2020, over half (52%) of people use a video subscription streaming service, up from 44% in January 2020. Video streaming services, such as Netflix and Disney+, have seen a surge in subscribers since the outbreak of COVID-19, which has resulted in half of people spending more time watching TV/films. The impact of COVID-19 on media has been significant but varied, with digital media, particularly subscriptions services, performing well, while sales of physical media have fallen. Overall, the pandemic has accelerated media trends that were already taking place, such as the transition towards streaming services over traditional broadcasters.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Mike Gallinari, a leading analyst in the Leisure sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an outsized effect on multicultural young adult populations, both economically and from a health standpoint. This has affected how they judge foodservice providers, and to even be in contention for their dollars, the baseline requirements for restaurants are to keep customers safe and provide economic value.
Mike Gallinari
Leisure Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Definition
          • COVID-19: US context
            • Economic and other assumptions
            • Executive Summary

                • Top takeaways
                  • Pandemic and recession drives steep decline in foodservice revenues
                    • Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
                  • Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adult diners
                    • Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adult diners, September 2020
                  • Challenges
                    • Delivery and pickup infrastructure is vital for FSRs to attract multicultural young adult diners
                      • Figure 3: Foodservice categories patronized among young adults – Nets, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                    • Restaurants need to give diners the pre-pandemic feeling as safely as they can
                      • Figure 4: Features missed about the dining experience among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                    • Breakfast and lunch outlets have to be cleaner, innovative, and budget-minded
                      • Figure 5: Attitudes about breakfast and lunch among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                    • Opportunities
                      • Developing a “clean” reputation will win young multicultural diners
                        • Figure 6: Sanitation features wanted among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                      • Investing in tech to stand out from competition
                        • Figure 7: Desired in-establishment tech among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                      • Be authentic to meet multicultural young adult values
                        • Figure 8: Attitudes about authentic cuisine among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                      • What’s next
                      • The Market – Key Takeaways

                        • The US is becoming more diverse
                          • Fear of COVID-19 keeps foodservice revenues down
                            • QSRs, takeout and delivery more important for multicultural segments
                              • Foodservice lines are blurring
                                • The title of “safest restaurant” is up for grabs
                                • Multicultural Young Adults by the Numbers

                                  • The US is becoming increasingly multicultural, Hispanics drive growth
                                    • Figure 9: Population distribution, by age, race and Hispanic origin, 2019
                                    • Figure 10: Share of 18-34 year old population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2014-2024
                                  • Fewer young adults living on their own indicates a pessimistic economic outlook
                                    • Figure 11: Living arrangements of young adults aged 18-34, 2016
                                • Market Size and Forecast – Foodservice

                                  • COVID-19 batters foodservice industry revenues
                                    • Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
                                    • Figure 13: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
                                    • Figure 14: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2019-25 (prepared in September 2020)
                                  • Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adults
                                    • Figure 15: Comfort with restaurant dining – outside and inside, by age group, August 27-September 8, 2020
                                    • Figure 16: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adult diners, September 2020
                                  • Lockdown
                                    • Re-emergence
                                      • Recovery
                                        • COVID-19: US context
                                          • Learnings from the last recession
                                            • In consumers’ own words…
                                                • Figure 17: Unemployment rate, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2007-August 2020
                                            • Market Factors

                                              • Government assistance floats consumers as employment recovers
                                                • Figure 18: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007- August 2020
                                                • Figure 19: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-August 2020
                                              • Black and Hispanic young adults are in the tightest financial situation
                                                • Figure 20: Personal financial situation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                • Figure 21: Fast food and budget among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, Fall 2015 and 2019
                                              • COVID-19 has hit multicultural populations hard, affecting dining preference
                                                • Figure 22: Discomfort with dining out, by race and Hispanic origin, August 27-September 8, 2020
                                                • Figure 23: Difference between COVID-19 and unweighted/weighted* population, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
                                              • Restaurants may still be a disease vector
                                                • Independents may not have room to return
                                                  • Cold, coronavirus likely to drive up delivery
                                                    • Food startups led by immigrants face outsized difficulties
                                                    • Market Opportunities

                                                      • Foodservice is becoming a free-for-all
                                                        • Restaurants are redesigning for the drop off of dine-in
                                                          • Delivery companies pivot to groceries
                                                            • Chowbus hopes to ride an independent streak
                                                              • There aren’t established “safe” go-to food brands
                                                                • Figure 24: COVID-19 behaviors among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                              • Influencer marketing can be an effective marketing vector
                                                                • Figure 25: Types of influencer accounts followed among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                            • Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

                                                              • Popeyes seeks to distract
                                                                • Restaurants play with menus and the digital space
                                                                  • Fine dining tried to hold onto experience
                                                                  • Digital Strategies

                                                                    • QSR Spotlight: Popeyes’ “Fried Chicken and Chill”
                                                                      • Figure 26: Popeyes #ThatPasswordFromPopeyes tweet, March 2020
                                                                    • Fast Casual Spotlight: Chipotle
                                                                      • FSR Spotlight: IHOP
                                                                        • Figure 27: IHOP Breakfast Family Feast Instagram post, April 2020
                                                                      • Fine Dining Spotlight: Alinea
                                                                      • The Consumer – Key Takeaways

                                                                        • Overview
                                                                          • Black diners’ loyalty can be gained through service
                                                                            • Young Hispanics are worried about disruption
                                                                              • Asian consumers are the most concerned with sanitation
                                                                              • Key Consumer Trend Drivers

                                                                                  • Wellbeing
                                                                                    • Technology
                                                                                      • Value
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Mintel Trend Drivers – Wellbeing, Technology, and Value and Pillars
                                                                                    • Foodservice Visitation and Frequency

                                                                                      • Young adults are shying away from sit-downs
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Foodservice categories patronized among young adults – Nets, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Foodservice venues patronized among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                      • Black diners are a valuable market for QSRs
                                                                                        • Figure 31: Fast food and fast casual visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                      • FSRs receiving less patronage
                                                                                        • Figure 32: Dine-in restaurant visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                      • Prepared and ready-to-eat foods are a popular option
                                                                                        • Figure 33: Prepared food outlet visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                      • Coffee and tea shops enjoy repeat business, but face competition
                                                                                        • Figure 34: Coffee/tea shop visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                      • Black diners frequent independents when able
                                                                                        • Figure 35: Independent restaurant visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                    • Preferred Cuisines

                                                                                      • Preferred cuisines often mirror diner’s heritage
                                                                                        • Figure 36: Cuisines preferred among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                    • Missing the Dining Experience

                                                                                      • Young diners miss normalcy
                                                                                        • Figure 37: Features missed about the dining experience among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                      • Diners seek full menus
                                                                                        • Figure 38: Menu options missed about the dining experience among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                    • Reopening Desires

                                                                                      • Diners believe safety lies in sanitation
                                                                                        • In consumers’ own words…
                                                                                          • Figure 39: Sanitation features wanted among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                        • Changes now will carry through post-pandemic
                                                                                          • In consumer’s own words…
                                                                                            • Figure 40: Experiential features wanted among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                          • Contactless pickup is here to stay
                                                                                            • Little difference in priorities based on background
                                                                                              • Figure 41: TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations among young adults, July 2020
                                                                                          • Foodservice Tech

                                                                                            • Ordering ahead is popular, and apps are the future
                                                                                              • Figure 42: Desired ordering tech among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                            • Foodservice brands have an opportunity to be tech leaders
                                                                                              • Figure 43: Desired in-establishment tech among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                          • Attitudes toward Foodservice

                                                                                            • Young adults support local eateries and express their identity through food
                                                                                              • Figure 44: Attitudes about foodservice and identity among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                            • Authenticity matters
                                                                                              • Figure 45: Attitudes about authentic cuisine among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                            • Lunch breaks are getting a tough break
                                                                                              • Figure 46: Attitudes about dayparts among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                            • Eateries must keep cleanliness and service in mind
                                                                                              • Figure 47: Attitudes about service among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                            • Data sources
                                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                  • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                        • Terms
                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                                            • Figure 49: COVID-19 exposure concerns, by 18-34s vs 35+, March 13-September 8, 2020
                                                                                                          • TURF – Methodology
                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Table – TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations – Black young adults, July 2020
                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Table – TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations – Asian young adults, July 2020
                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Table – TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations – Hispanic young adults, July 2020

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